Table of Contents

Saturday, September 06, 2008

Total Value Estimates - Through 5 September, 2008

I've updated the total value estimates for 2008 players. You can read about all the methods in this series of posts.

Features:

  • Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
  • Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
  • Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above replacement).
  • League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
  • Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).

Note: I've heard a report that someone was getting server errors trying to access this spreadsheet. If you do, please let me know, because I haven't been able to replicate it and want to know how widespread the issue is.

A huge thanks to Joel Luckhaupt, who used his visual basic wizardly to automate the population of my makeshift spreadsheets. Thanks also to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data.

Current MVP Rankings
American League
Last First Lg Team Pos PA OPS R/G RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Sizemore Grady AL CLE CF 639 0.908 7.7 62.5 10.9 3.2 76.6
Rodriguez Alex AL NYA 3B 524 0.997 8.4 57.9 4.4 0.7 63.0
Pedroia Dustin L AL BOS 2B 638 0.883 6.6 47.2 5.4 0.8 53.5
Granderson Curtis AL DET CF 534 0.898 7.3 47.3 2.2 2.8 52.3
Roberts Brian AL BAL 2B 626 0.838 6.6 46.3 3.1 0.8 50.2
Mauer Joe AL MIN C 539 0.858 6.6 36.7 6.0 7.2 49.9
Hamilton Josh H AL TEX CF 615 0.903 6.6 45.3 3.0 0.9 49.2
Beltre Adrian AL SEA 3B 587 0.780 5.2 25.9 22.3 0.8 49.0
Youkilis Kevin E AL BOS 1B 538 0.947 7.1 45.4 4.5 -5.4 44.6
Markakis Nick AL BAL RF 620 0.897 7.3 52.5 -3.5 -5.1 44.0

Sizemore still has a commanding lead, though A-Rod is holding his own despite 100 fewer PA's. If you value rate stats, you probably go with A-Rod. But if you count playing time, as replacement-level statistics do, Sizemore is the clear choice. Similar offensive contributions, and excellent defense at a premium position.

National League
Last First Lg Team Pos PA OPS R/G RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Pujols Albert NL STL 1B 558 1.110 10.7 78.2 15.7 -6.6 87.3
Berkman Lance NL HOU 1B 584 1.027 9.1 68.0 14.6 -7.1 75.5
Jones Chipper NL ATL 3B 480 1.021 9.4 56.0 10.7 0.6 67.4
Utley Chase NL PHI 2B 620 0.925 7.1 48.6 17.5 0.8 66.8
Ramirez Hanley NL FLA SS 626 0.926 7.9 59.2 1.1 4.9 65.2
Beltran Carlos NL NYN CF 614 0.851 6.5 40.3 13.1 3.4 56.8
Holliday Matt T NL COL LF 562 0.974 7.9 51.9 9.2 -4.6 56.6
Wright David A NL NYN 3B 641 0.897 7.0 48.2 4.7 0.9 53.7
Giles Brian NL SD RF 567 0.839 6.8 40.1 16.9 -4.6 52.4
Braun Ryan J NL MIL LF 570 0.934 7.0 45.2 7.9 -4.7 48.4
Chipper's really fallen behind, but that's due not so much to him taling off (though he has a bit) as Albert Pujols going all ridiculous on us. Berkman's still hanging in there, but Albert continues to be the standard against which all hitters are judged. Doesn't hurt that he's such a good defensive first basemen.

Current Cy Young Rankings
American League
Last First Lg Team IP ERA FIP OPSa BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Lee Cliff AL CLE 194.3 2.32 2.60 0.601 2.82 68.7 65.9
Halladay Roy AL TOR 218.0 2.64 2.98 0.621 3.04 71.8 64.8
Santana Ervin R AL LAA 192.0 3.23 3.23 0.638 3.44 54.7 51.7
Burnett A.J. AL TOR 193.3 4.47 3.52 0.740 4.52 31.8 45.7
Vazquez Javier AL CHA 182.7 4.34 3.41 0.747 4.43 31.9 45.5
Mussina Mike AL NYA 172.3 3.39 3.34 0.729 4.12 36.0 44.3
Danks John W AL CHA 164.7 3.44 3.33 0.692 3.78 40.7 42.5
Pettitte Andy AL NYA 188.3 4.49 3.68 0.751 4.60 29.4 41.3
Beckett Josh AL BOS 154.3 4.20 3.32 0.706 3.88 36.3 40.0
Lester Jon T AL BOS 181.7 3.37 3.72 0.706 3.84 43.6 39.1
I opted to sort this time based on FIP-Runs, which is a defense-independent indicator of pitching performance. But, at least in the AL, it doesn't really matter. This is a two-horse race between Halliday and Lee, as it has been most of the year. Lee's rate stats are a bit more impressive, while Halliday has continued his typical workload and thrown more innings.

National League
Last First Lg Team IP ERA FIP OPSa BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Lincecum Tim NL SF 190.3 2.60 2.77 0.610 3.06 57.3 56.0
Haren Dan NL ARI 190.0 3.41 3.00 0.664 3.41 49.9 51.1
Webb Brandon NL ARI 192.0 3.19 3.13 0.628 3.10 56.9 49.0
Lowe Derek NL LAN 188.7 3.53 3.28 0.652 3.43 49.0 44.8
Sheets Ben NL MIL 179.0 2.97 3.17 0.660 3.45 46.2 44.7
Hamels Cole NL PHI 203.0 3.01 3.47 0.634 3.18 58.4 44.1
Billingsley Chad R NL LAN 175.7 3.13 3.22 0.672 3.89 36.8 43.0
Dempster Ryan NL CHN 183.7 2.99 3.38 0.630 3.24 51.6 41.7
Volquez Edinson NL CIN 170.0 3.12 3.33 0.669 3.77 37.8 39.5
Santana Johan NL NYN 196.0 2.71 3.77 0.660 3.69 45.3 35.9
You can make a strong argument that the current Cy Young leader in the National League is the guy who was taken two slots after Drew Stubbs in the 2006 draft. I know, coulda/shoulda/woulda. But that pick is probably never going to stop bothering me...