WBC Games, Round Two - Saturday

Didn't get to watch either of today's games kicking off the second round.

Venezuela(*) over Netherlands, 3-1

Venezuela is clearly the better team over a large number of games, but the Netherlands has shown that it can win a baseball game or two. They continue to play great defense (pitching + fielding = 2.68 ERA), thanks in part to another good start by Sidney "I'd really like a job" Ponson. Their bats just can't keep pace, though--the team has an OPS of 0.385, scoring 7 runs in 5 games! Which do you think is more indicative of their true talent? Team OPS or Team ERA?

Puerto Rico mercy rules USA, 11-1

Ouch. Jake Peavy clearly didn't have a good day, and Team USA couldn't get anything going against Javier Vazquez and company despite a ridiculously stacked lineup. By the time Matt Thornton started giving up doubles in the 7th, what was already a big hole became subject to the mercy rule.

Not quite the start the US was going for in round 2. Assuming they can beat the Netherlands tomorrow (and they should, of course), USA will have to beat either Puerto Rico or Venezuela on Tuesday to stay alive...and both of those teams beat the US the last time they met. Team USA absolutely has the talent to advance, but things are starting to look a little shaky. Heck, by this time tomorrow, our team could be on its way home!

On the personnel front, losing Pedroia is a significant loss...MVP's tend to be pretty good players. But replacing him with Brian Roberts is about as good as you could possibly do, at least given Chase Utley's situation.

My brackets after round 1

So the first round of the '09 WBC had its share of upsets, the Netherlands advancing to the second round obviously being the largest. How's my bracket holding up?

For each game played, I put a green box around it if I guessed the winner correctly (regardless of who the loser was), and a red box around it if I guessed wrong. And the results?
Not so good. :) That's 10 correct, 13 wrong. I can't count the first games in the Asian bracket because I posted this after those games started...but that's how I would have picked them, so maybe I can cheat and say I was 12-13? Oh, all right, nevermind.

Dominican is killing me, as I picked them to go all the way. And I was probably foolish to choose Canada over the USA in the first game of that bracket, but you gotta choose an upset now and then (right?) and I was hoping it would be Votto's team that did it.

What's amazing to me is that as bad as that went, the fact that the US lost to Venezuela in the seeding game of round 1 means that I actually have three games "correctly" forecasted to kick off round 2! That's the best I could possibly do given that two of the teams I thought would be in round two are no longer with us. I'm thinking we should up-weight round two games a little bit in the scoring. And given that I'm scoring against myself (i.e. no one else submitted a bracket, save Patriot), I don't have a problem with changing the rules mid-way through the tourney! :)

FWIW, my modified picks are that the Netherlands do not win again, and that the US will finish first in pool 2, with the runner up being Puerto Rico. Venezuela loses game 4 and will be out of the tourney. And I'm rooting for team USA the rest of the way, folks!

Update: Jeff Sackman loves the WBC. Bravo!

On the WBC & patriotism

Tango linked to this great article citing comments by Endy Chavez and Yadier Molina on the WBC:

Chavez was beaming after going 3 for 4 to help Venezuela eliminate Italy with a 10-1 victory in the World Baseball Classic. The victory assured Venezuela of a trip to the second round; its game Wednesday against the United States will be for seeding.

The final hero of Game 7, St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina, is also playing in the W.B.C., for Puerto Rico. Molina hit a go-ahead two-run double on Monday to beat the Netherlands, and he surprised reporters when he said it meant more to him than the homer that sent the Cardinals to the World Series.

But the revelation did not surprise Chavez.

“It’s not even close,” Chavez said. “When we’re in the majors, it’s our job. We are professionals. You play for your team, but you just try to do your job. Here, it’s something special. You feel like a little kid. It’s not money. No matter who you are, you have to play hard for your country. I think it’s the biggest thing that has happened in my life.”

The biggest thing in his life? Bigger than The Catch?

“That was outstanding in that situation, to make that catch and save the team,” Chavez said. “It’s unbelievable, and it’s a pretty good play. But like I say, representing my country is something special. Nothing compares to that.”

Supports what I was saying the other day about player attitudes and loyalties in MLB and the WBC:

We see the people on our team as "our" heroes, but the truth is that they're employees of a large conglomerate who ultimately are playing for our team because a) that's who drafted them, or b) that's who offered them the best contract. They will have loyalty to their teammates, and over time some may adopt a city as their second home. But I think for most players, their team and "home" city is just the place where they go to work. That's probably especially true for players born outside of the USA.

My perception is that the World Baseball Classic is different. Players are playing for their true home countries (or, at least, the country of their ancestors). My sense is that many of them take real pride in these games and play them with an intensity that is at least on the level of the regular season, if not the postseason.

Anyway, at Tango's blog, a commenter wrote this:

i am phlegmatically pro WBC, because if done correctly it should be a great way to promote the sport around the globe and also provides entertaining baseball at a compitition level above that of a typical exhibition tournament. but i find the whole nationalistic prism it is framed in pretty discouraging. aren’t we above this kind of thing? i know sports nationalism is considered ‘harmless’ and everybody loves the world cup and the olympics and whatever but nationalsim is, to me, pretty much anathema to global progress.
...
nationalism is evil. homerism is just geeky, and when it leads to irrational behavior, yes, sometimes very annoying.

Here's my response:

I love the WBC for many reasons. I love the huge talent differences across clubs, because you get to see teams like the Netherlands pulling massive upsets despite AAA-level (at best) talent. I love that it’s a way to learn more about the personal backgrounds of all the players we follow in MLB. And I love the nationalism of the event.

I completely reject the idea that nationalism (actually, I think patriotism is probably a better word for what we’re seeing) on the level shown in the WBC is evil. The WBC is all about pride in your country. There’s nothing wrong, and a lot right, about that. I wrote when Obama was elected that I felt a genuine since of pride in my country for the first time in a long time. It’s made a tangible difference in my attitude toward team USA this go-around. Maybe that’s shallow, but that’s where I’m at.

I also love to see the patriotism exhibited by the players and fans of other countries. It helps me remember that there is far more to this world than this tiny part of our country where I closet myself. Fans and players of other teams are proud of their own countries, and they should be.

The kind of nationalism we’re seeing in this event is not, or at least does not have to be, the same thing as isolationism or exclusionism. It does not mean that you don’t respect and admire other countries. It just means you’re proud of your own country and the players representing it.

Never really thought I was the patriotic type...but dangit, I am. Maybe I'm not the boot-up-your-ass patriot type, and I'm definitely about as socially liberal as they come...but yeah, I'm a patriot, and I love my WBC.

WBC Games - Monday & Tuesday

Korea(*) over Japan, 1-0

Aside from the fact that Korea won, it felt like Japan played the better game. I think that was because Korea ran themselves into so many outs, which made Japan's defense look extremely solid. But Japan certainly couldn't get anything going against former Reds farmhand Bong Jung Keon, nor his replacements, and it's hard to win a game when you don't score a run.

The Asian bracket played out perfectly in the first round. Hopefully that will help my bouy up the rest of my brackets, which are looking pretty dreadful right now.

Venezuela over Italy, I think.

I never forecasted that Italy would win a game, so I can't claim any sort of prediction on this game 4--though I did choose Venezuela to win the first match-up between these teams (which they did). Great to see Chris Denorfia again--I don't think I've seen him play since he was traded...though I wish I would have seen him against Canada, as he apparently had a heck of a game. Not digging the 'satche though.

...and, for some reason, my recording bugged out early. Last I saw, though, Venezuela was up handily over Italy with little sign of letting up.

WBC Games - Sunday

So I'm still a day behind. Maybe I'll catch up tomorrow. Again, I'm only talking about games I actually get to see. That means fewer and fewer games as the week goes on, as most games are only viewable on MLB Network.

Sunday's games were pretty lopsided affairs, though at least the USA game was close early.

Korea(*) over China, 14-0

Ray Chang, it was fun while it lasted. Korea shows some power. Whether they can ride that tune-up into a better showing against Japan in game 5 remains to be seen.

USA(*) over Venezuela 15-5

I'm cheating a little bit here, because I had Canada playing instead of the USA in this game. But I did pick USA to win their game against Venezuela in my bracket (game 4), so we'll go with that pick.

The managerial decision to bring in the AA-lefty to face Ianetta might be the strangest managerial decision thus far. And while there's no guarantee that it would work out any better with another option--Ianetta's a quality hitter--it's not a move you'd expect to see. I was also starting to get uncomfortable with the degree to which players were being substituted into the game on team USA. But they won, handily, so I won't complain much.

I have to say I just am incredibly happy that Dunn is getting this chance, and is exceling to the degree that he is. It's about time that the rest of baseball got to see what an awesome guy he is, and I think that's a big part of what's been on display in the dugout. That and the fact that he's a heck of a hitter--he's made like one out so far in two games, right? The dugout shot of Jimmy Rollins' reliving his interview that took place during Dunn's homer had me laughing out loud, and probably woke my wife up in the other room.

Four questions at Philly Sports post

I was asked to contribute answers to four questions about the Reds by the Philly Sports Post. Here's an excerpt.

• Breakout Potential: I like Bruce to break out, but I also like Johnny Cueto. Cueto just turned 23 in February, essentially skipped AAA last year, and yet still posted 8+ k/9 totals along with respectable walk totals. If he can improve his walk rates--and at times last season he seemed to have pinpoint control--and if he can get his homer rates a bit more under control, the could emerge as a really nice #2ish starter. Add him to Volquez, Harang, and Arroyo and you have the makings of a pretty darn good rotation.

Chad of Reds uberblog Redleg Nation also contributed responses to these same questions. Interestingly enough, we pretty much gave the same answers! :)

WBC Games - Saturday (cont'd)

USA over Canada(*)

It was the Joey Votto vs. Adam Dunn Show. Really good game, and great to see two of my favorite guys playing such a pivotal role. And the Dunn stuff in the 9th inning was priceless--I really miss having him on the team.

Overall, while it again screwed up my bracket (I picked the wrong upset), I was relieved to see team USA playing to win. The only substitution was Jimmy Rollins replacing Derek Jeter, and I don't see how you can consider that anything but an upgrade. It seemed like a very different atmosphere than what we saw from this team in 2006. More humble, and more hungry.

Puerto Rico(*) over Panama

As much as they love Bernie Williams, this was the Ivan Rodriguez show. He projects as a replacement-level hitter, which isn't a disaster for a catcher if he's solid defensively (is he?). It's not good either. Would he take a reserve job? Somehow, I doubt it.