Most valuable infielders - 2007 Reds minor leagues

In his most recent column, Dan Fox released a spreadsheet with 2007 minor league fielding stats for infielders (outfielders are still in revision--sorry, no Jay Bruce stats yet) using his Simple Fielding Runs (SFR) approach.

SFR may not be as precise as hit-location statistics like UZR or PMR, but because it can be calculated using play-by-play data, he can get data on players from leagues that are not "video scouted" by BIS or STATS Inc. Therefore, one of its most exciting uses lies in generating quality fielding statistics for minor league players! That's what I wanted to look at tonight.

Below is a table reporting total fielding value for each infielder (excluding pitchers and catchers) in the Reds' system last year. For each player, summed across all positions and teams. SFR is total +/- across all positions that a player played. PosAdj is a pro-rated (by playing time) position adjustment, which varies depending on position played (described here; shortstops get a boost while first basemen get a penalty because an average-fielding shortstop would be a very good defensive first baseman). FRAA is the total fielding value of the player, reported in as Fielding Runs Above Average. There was no adjustment for league, although there probably should be (I doubt the bar for fielding is as high in rookie-ball as it is in AA).

Name	SFR	PosAdj	FRAA
Pedro Lopez	7.1	2.6	9.7
Justin Tordi	7.8	1.2	9.0
Jose Castro	3.4	3.8	7.3
Eric Eymann	3.4	3.5	6.9
Brandon Waring	5.5	0.5	6.0
Mark Bellhorn	4.4	0.8	5.2
Kevyn Feiner	4.8	0.2	5.0
Zachary Cozart	3.3	1.7	5.0
Neftali Soto	3.0	1.3	4.3
Jorge Cantu	4.4	-1.0	3.4
Todd Frazier	1.4	1.5	2.9
Angel Cabrera	1.7	0.8	2.5
Justin Turner	1.3	1.1	2.4
Jose Medina	2.1	0.1	2.2
Drew Anderson	1.3	0.7	2.0
Jose Gualdron	1.1	0.8	2.0
Dan Conway	0.1	1.8	1.9
Jeff Keppinger	1.3	0.0	1.4
Anderson Machado	-0.9	2.0	1.1
Ryan Baker	0.9	0.2	1.1
Todd Waller	0.4	0.7	1.1
Jason Louwsma	3.1	-2.1	1.0
Earl Snyder	0.1	0.8	1.0
Chris Valaika	-3.5	4.4	0.8
Jesse Gutierrez	3.1	-2.4	0.7
Paul Janish	-4.4	4.9	0.5
Eli Rimes	0.3	-0.1	0.2
Petr Cech	0.0	0.2	0.2
Kyle Maunus	0.4	-0.3	0.1
Ryan Freel	0.1	0.0	0.1
Michael McKennon	3.9	-3.9	0.0
Luis Bolivar	-1.1	0.9	-0.3
Mike Edwards	-0.3	-0.1	-0.3
Gabriel Suarez	-0.4	0.0	-0.4
Fulton Kendrick	-0.6	0.2	-0.4
Juan Francisco	-1.3	0.7	-0.6
Brett Bartles	-0.7	0.0	-0.7
Jay Garthwaite	-0.3	-0.6	-0.8
Radhames Moreta	-1.6	0.6	-1.0
Paul Witt	-1.3	0.2	-1.1
Jeremiah Piepkorn	1.3	-2.5	-1.2
Jeff Bannon	-1.5	0.1	-1.3
Edwin Encarnacion	-1.4	0.1	-1.4
Logan Parker	6.0	-7.5	-1.5
Billy Rojo	-1.8	0.2	-1.6
David Scott	-1.3	-0.8	-2.1
Raul Tablado	-2.4	0.1	-2.2
Adam Rosales	4.4	-7.1	-2.7
Ramon Ramirez	-2.0	-0.7	-2.7
Joey Votto	2.8	-5.9	-3.1
Aaron Herr	-4.5	0.8	-3.7
Brodie Pullen	-4.5	0.2	-4.3
Carlos Mendez	-1.9	-3.5	-5.3
Michael Griffin	-6.2	0.6	-5.7
Michael DeJesus	-8.9	0.7	-8.1
Caonabo Cosme	-8.1	-0.3	-8.4
Tonys Gutierrez	-4.9	-5.5	-10.4
Enrique Cruz	-16.4	1.8	-14.6

A few assorted comments:

• The Reds' minor league infielders don't really seem to have any substantial defensive standouts, at least according to these numbers. Pedro Lopez, for example, ranked 121st among all minor league infielders. Granted, some of the higher-ranking players in this spreadsheet were playing in the Mexican league, which might have a rather weak level of competition. But there were guys in AAA posting 20+ FRAA. Kind of shocking how far from that any of the Reds were.
  
• Pedro Lopez spent a substantial part of last season in the White Sox organization, and those numbers are included in the above totals. Therefore, Justin Tordi wins the award for most valuable Reds defensive infielder! Tordi, a 41st-round selection in '05, split time between second, third, and shortstop, for Billings, Dayton, and Sarasota last season. Unfortunately, he didn't hit much, posting a combined 0.215/0.282/0.294.
  
• Brandon Waring accompanied his impressive offensive performance in Billings with a very good defensive performance at third base. I hadn't heard much about his fielding before, but these data indicate that he's pretty well-rounded. Also, keep in mind that his totals are essentially just a half-season's work. It'll be interesting to see how he does next year.
  
• Paul Janish and Zachary Cozart have to been seen as having disappointing scores, as both of them are supposed to be defensive standouts. Janish, in particular, comes out really badly.
  
• Nice to see Neftali Soto posting pretty respectable numbers. I haven't been keeping up--anyone hear if he's likely to play a full season in Dayton next year?
  
• Nice to see Votto coming out as a tad above average at first base last year--though not enough to overcome the position penalty.
  
• Chris Valaika and Todd Frazier, currently shortstops, are both expected to eventually move to another position. Frazier did ok last year, but Valaika's numbers indicate that he's already showing signs that a move would be appropriate.
  
• Yikes about Enrique Cruz. 22 errors in 117 games doesn't help, but his range can't be good either.
  

John Sickels on the Reds

Note: I bumped this up from Tuesday after today's release of his top-20 list. -j

Reading through bloglines today, and came upon this post by John Sickels:

Working on the Reds farm system today.

Good Lord.

This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.

Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

...

Ok, I've read that three times, and it really does say what I think it says. It does, doesn't it?

How long has it been since someone outside of the Reds' organization has said something like that? Much less a respected talent evaluator like Sickels? The guy isn't perfect, but he's about as good a resource as we non-baseball folks have available to us when it comes to minor league prospects...

Update: Here's his top 20 list:

1. Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
   
2. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
   
3. Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
   
4. Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
   
5. Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
   
6. Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
   
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
   
8. Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
   
9. Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
   
10. Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
    
11. Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)
    
12. Jared Burton, RHP, Grade C+
    
13. Tyler Pelland, LHP, Grade C+
    
14. Pedro Viola, LHP, Grade C+ (sleeper!)
    
15. Travis Wood, LHP, Grade C+ (health??)
    
16. Josh Roenicke, RHP, Grade C+
    
17. Scott Carroll, RHP, Grade C+
    
18. Chris Valaika, INF, Grade C+
    
19. Adam Rosales, 1B, Grade C+
    
20. Sean Watson, RHP, Grade C+
    
21. Brandon Waring, 3B, Grade C+ (the strikeouts scare me)

Pretty exciting. To show how ignorant I am about the Reds' system, I had absolutely no clue who Daniel Dorn was. That power surge in Chattanooga last year was kinda neat, but low sample sizes, ya know? Still, the kid could arrive in Louisville next year, so it's time to start watching him.

I also have to say that the '07 draft class is looking mighty good. It's too early to know much about Mesoraco's outcome, which is no surprise for a high school catcher. But Frazier is looking like a steal, and it's great to see guys like Lotzkar and Soto being ranked so favorably. Unfortunately, the class of '06 isn't doing quite as well...though I tend to think that Watson, at least, is a bit better than his rating would indicate. But what do I know? :)

2014 Reds Preview: Position Players

2014 Reds Season Preview

• Introduction
• Position Players
• Starting Pitchers
• Bullpen
• Wrap-Up

This week is Reds Preview Week at the 'ole blog.  The Introduction is here.  Time to get down to brass tacks!

Below I'm reporting projections for all Reds position players, including a smattering of potential bench candidates.  The projections are 50:50 averages of Steamer and ZIPS, which I chose because they will be updated throughout the season;  I might use this spreadsheet as a basis for series previews or other kinds of check-ins during the season.  Maybe!  All counting stats (WAR, baserunning, and fielding) are reported as per-year totals, which I set to 550 PA for catchers and 650 PA for everyone else.  This includes bench players.  The idea is to get an idea of player talent, not accurately project playing time.

Starters

The biggest, obvious problem here is Ryan Ludwick.  The projection systems aren't at all buying that he's due for a resurgent season: average offense and poor fielding in an outfield corner mean for near-replacement level production.  They have good reason to be skeptical, too: he'll turn 36 in July, he's coming off a shoulder injury, and his 2012 Reds performance, good as it was, was a 472-PA follow-up to an absolutely dreadful campaign in 2011 with the Pirates and Padres.  Can he rebound?  Sure.  But I'm not putting money on it.  If he doesn't recover, the Reds can go with Chris Heisey out there...but his amazing spring notwithstanding, the projections don't look much better for him.

Otherwise, however, I have to say that the starting lineup looks really solid.  Devin Mesoraco looks to be a solid regular catcher, which would be a big upgrade over what the Reds got last year out of their catchers.  Furthermore, Billy Hamilton is projected to be a tick below average, but also not a complete disaster in center field.  Most of his production is his baserunning and fielding, but he is projected to post a near league-average OBP (with zero power).  Interestingly, he is the starter over whom Steamer and ZIPS differ the most.  ZIPS projects a .302 wOBA and very good baserunning and fielding to net 2.5 WAR, while Steamer is much more reserved (.283 wOBA, good baserunning, avg fielding, 0.8 WAR).

Everyone else looks to be more or less in line with what they did last year, with a bit of regression and a few blips thrown in here and there.  Overall, the Reds project to be a very good fielding team (the silver lining to losing Choo), and will have to find enough offense before they get to the 8-9-1 slots of offensive nothingness that Cozart-Pitcher-Hamilton will bring.  Still, if Zack Cozart and Hamilton can do enough with fielding, and in Hamilton's case, baserunning, they still pass as league-average players because the play elite defensive positions.  If Cozart could figure out how to take a walk now and then, however, it'd sure help the cause.

Bench

Oh, the horrors!

I like that Brayan Pena can bat left-handed, but he looks like a poor offensive player without much defense here.  But he's a catcher, and it doesn't take a lot to be worth bench job.  Hannahan can at least play the field, and looks like a good enough super-sub if he can get healthy enough to play.  Heisey is easily the strongest bat of the bunch, and can contribute fielding as well.  I expect to see him get some starts against lefties to spell Hamilton or Bruce.

But why on earth did they sign Skip Schumaker?  Yes, he's a lefty, and it looks like he can get on base a little bit.  But he has zero power, and his fielding projection is just horrific.  His career UZR/150 is -13 runs at 2B, -2 runs in LF/RF, and -12 runs in CF.  So...I guess if you stick in in a corner outfield slot, his glove is fine.  But despite decent on-base skills, he has zero power, and won't hit enough to offset the position adjustment.  The more I look at it, the more I dislike this signing.  I don't wish an injury on anyone, and I hope he recovers soon from his shoulder injury.  But in terms of performance, I'd much rather have someone like Roger Bernadina as the 5th outfielder/lefty bat (he can field, power makes up for weaker on-base skills) and Cesar Izturis Ramon Santiago as the middle-infielder.

With all of the injuries, guys like Chris Nelson and Neftali Soto might have a legitimate shot at the roster.  Both contribute some pop, but they don't walk and won't contribute defense.  Soto is a bit more interesting to me because of his slight edge on offense, and his ability to "catch," by which I mean he has donned the gear in professional baseball.  I'm not sure that he'd be any better at it than he is at his other fielding jobs, but it's nice to have an emergency catcher, I suppose.

Conclusions

In preparing this piece, I also happened to plug in numbers for the Cardinals.  For the most part, I thought the Reds matched up pretty well.  Except for two things.

1. The Cardinals don't have a gigantic hole like the Reds do in LF.  In fact, pretty much every player in their lineup can hit.  The exception might be 2B, but at least there they have guys who can field.  The Reds really need Ludwick to find himself again, or have Heisey quickly take his job and discover himself.

2. The Cardinals have a really good bench.  They have guys like Jon Jay and Mark Ellis (when he's not platooning) on their bench.  Those two guys can both be at least borderline starters, and that's probably selling them short.  And on top of that, they have Oscar Taveras waiting to make his big league debut, which would push Matt Adams (I guess?) to the bench.  I mean...sheesh.

Those two things put the Reds at somewhere around a 4-6 win deficit compared to the Cardinals, depending on how much the Reds' bench plays.  They will need to somehow get something from left field while keeping healthy enough to minimize the exposure of the rest of their bench to compete.  It won't be easy.

Fortunately...the pitching!  That's coming up next.

Prospecting Reds Hitters with Oliver

Update: Pitching prospect profiles are here.

I freely admit that I don't follow the minor leagues as well as I perhaps should.  Here's an initial attempt to rectify that.  Below, and in a subsequent post, I'm reporting Oliver projections for each of the Reds Top-40 prospects.  This post features hitters, and the next post will feature pitchers.

Caveat: No matter what the system, projection systems are NOT the ideal method to evaluate minor league players.  Scouting-based approaches work better, period.  But I can't scout.  And blending Oliver with top prospect lists was something that I took to doing when I was into fantasy baseball a few years ago.  If nothing else, it's place to start when trying learn players.  Keep in mind that all numbers below are projections for what the player would do in the major leagues.  In most cases, that's not relevant to what they'll do in the minors this season.  But it gives you an idea of how well they have developed to this point.

We'll go in descending order of 2014 age:

Age-25 Players

As you'd expect with a prospect list, starting oldest and moving to youngest will not start you with your organization's best prospects; most of the good players have already graduated by the time they are 25.  On the plus side, it makes the projections more useful, because these guys are at an age where they are approaching as good as they will get.  Usually.

Neftali Soto was taken out of his Puerto Rican high school in 2007, the same draft that netted the Reds Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, and Zack Cozart (for a fun example of why I shouldn't express opinions, check out my draft-day thoughts on Zack Cozart in that link!).  He's just never developed any kind of plate discipline, and that probably limits his ability to put his power to good effect.  He might make a good power-hitting reserve, but he's not a starter.

I was surprised that Ryan LaMarre was already this old.  But college picks don't have a lot of time to make adjustments.  He projects as a terrible hitter right now, but his fielding numbers are superb.  The Reds are in a 40-man roster pinch right now, and it wouldn't be surprising to see LaMarre sent through waivers.  I'm sort of hopeful they can hang onto him, because you can do worse things with your 5th outfielder than to have an elite defensive player.

Age-24 Players

H-Rod was recently released, and Chris Buckley's kid, Sean, missed most of last season, and things aren't looking great for him.  Ryan Wright didn't hit for the first time in his career last year in Bakersfield, but he still looks like a great fielder.  He'll need to rediscover himself in AA this year if he's going to contribute to the Reds, because time's running out.

Age-23 Players

Here's an age where we start to see a lot of good players making their big league debuts.  Not coincidentally, Billy Hamilton is set to be the Reds' starting center fielder, and Oliver is quite bullish on him: replacement-level (or maybe even sub-replacement?) hitting, but amazing value on bases and in the field gets him to an average overall player.  Can you imagine how good he could be if he could just get his OBP to league average (~0.315)?  I get giddy just thinking about it.

Tucker Barnhart is also on the cusp.  Given that he's already on the 40-man roster, it sounds like he might get the nod for opening day if Devin Mesoraco's injury sends him to the DL.  I've been following him as a Redleg Nation spotlight player, and it's exciting to see him getting close--and with a quality projection, no less.  Barnhart is an elite defensive catcher.  If he can hit at all, he can be a quality backup in the near future.

I don't know much about the other two guys on this list: Seth Mejias-Brean and Juan Silva.  Marc Hulet had Mejias-Brean as his sleeper pick for 2013, and he delivered:

The Sleeper: Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B: One of my favorite sleeper picks from last off-season, Mejias-Brean hit more than .300 for the second straight season while showing intriguing gap power. He doesn’t possess eye-popping power but he does enough things well that he could eventually find himself starting at the hot corner at the big league level and the Reds’ current third baseman Todd Frazier is by no means irreplaceable.

Both Mejias-Brean and Silva are projected to be solid hitters in the big leagues right now, and offer solid fielding at their positions.  I'm keen to see what they do in AA this year; if nothing else, they seem like good depth and bench fodder.  The prospect guys don't seem tremendously impressed with either.

Age-22 Players

Junior Arias has a good baseball name.  He also plays an elite defensive position well, and had a nice first half of the hear that flashed both speed (40 SB's) and power (10 HR's) while repeating Dayton.  He struggled in Bakersfield, though, and will probably start there again.  Kyle Waldrop showed power last year at Bakersfield (21 HR), but not much else (0.304 OBP).

Age-21 Players

Reds #1 pick last year, Phillip Ervin, was terrific when he was healthy last season.  He's already showing a darn impressive projection that suggests he could hack it in the majors right now.  Now, I don't believe that--seems like a selection bias issue with MLE's to me.  But given the Reds' rather light outfield talent right now, I certainly wouldn't mind if they tried to fast-track him a bit if they feel he can handle it.  A 0.330 wOBA would rank fourth among Oliver's projected Reds players right now.  Frazier is #3.

As for Yorman Rodriguez, I'm surprised that he projects so poorly.  He put together a pretty solid season last year across A+ and AA-ball, despite being young for his level.  Oliver thinks I'm reading too much into that.  Or, he thinks that legitimate prospects should be wOBAing more than 0.330 each level.  I dunno.  The prospect people still like him, so I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic on him.  I'd sure like to see a little better contact rate than the 27% he posted last season, and the negative fielding projection surprises me given his toolsy reputation.

Age-20 Players

Jesse Winker had an outstanding season at Dayton last season, which came on the heels of a spectacular half-year in Billings the year before.  Scouts apparently like the hit tool a lot.  He's showing great walk rates, good contact rates, nice pop...he just looks really good thus far.  His fielding apparently will limit him to LF, but I have no problem with modest power, high on-base outfielders in corner slots as long as they are solid enough in the field.  There's even talk that he could skip Bakersfield and go straight to AA Pensacola this season.  As with Ervin, the Reds need help in the outfield.  If Winker can develop quickly, that'd sure help.  Also, he seems like a good guy.

Jose Ortiz also got an impressive projection.  That's about where Brayan Pena shows up in projections, and Ortiz hasn't played higher than rookie ball yet.  I think that's probably a bit of a ridiculous projection, but Ortiz had a very solid season in Billings last year, with good power and decent on-base skills.  He'll be one I watch in Dayton this year.

Age-19 Players

Neither Thompson or Franklin were ranked highly on any of the lists last season, and neither projects very well in Oliver.  And that's expected, because they're still teenagers!


Methodology discussion (for those who enjoy the esotericals):
I'm using Oliver for two reasons.  First, the translations across levels of the minor leagues were a major emphasis during the development of Oliver, and it therefore has a reputation (at least) as one of the better systems for for looking at how young players will perform as they transition into the major leagues.  Second, and more importantly, it's the only system that publishes projections for just about every player in organized baseball! That makes it about the only choice when you're going deep into an organization's prospects.

Also, I opted to use Chris St. John's consensus Reds prospect list because he already did the work.  His approach did end up giving more collective weight to the Red Reporter lists than any other source, which...  look, I love the guys at Red Reporter.  They're great, and they frankly do great work keeping an eye on the prospects.  But my feeling is that it would have been more appropriate to just give RR one vote, not four. :)  In any case, the point was not so much to worry about whether Dude A is ranked 5th or 7th, but rather to get a general feel for the top prospects in the Reds' system.

First Day Draft Recap

Overall breakdown of day 1 picks:

College Hitters: 3
College Pitchers: 2
High School Hitters: 2
High School Pitchers: 1

Overall, a fairly balanced first day, though it was split 5:3 in favor of hitters. The Reds probably do have more organizational depth among pitchers than hitters right now, however, so that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

After reviewing the information I could find on these guys, here are my very brief summaries of the scoop for each pick:

• 1st round:
  
• RHB C Devin Mesoraco - High School - Sounds like everything you'd hope for in a mid-1st round pick of a high school player. Great athlete, good polish for his age, excellent skills on offense and defense, and no significant problems in his game.
• My earlier post on Mesoraco has most of the info I've seen on him.
• Nice article in his local paper.
  
• Supplemental Round:
  
• RHB SS Todd Frazier - College - The Big East player of the year and first-team All American is likely to move to 3B/OF, but he's a big, athletic kid with good power and speed. Reports are that he has an unorthodox swing (I think I see the "hitch" mlb's scouting report mentions when I watch his video, particularly during BP), but he put up spectacular numbers at Rutgers (0.377/0.502/0.757, 1:1 k:bb ratio). Not particularly good range (especially not at SS), but a good arm. He could have gone at the end of the first round proper, so the Reds did well to get him here. I like him.
  
• Kevin Goldstein's articles on him.
• MLB.com scouting report
• Nice profile video (not the scouting video) of him is accessible via this link.
• School paper article about today's selection.
  
• RHP Kyle Lotzkar - High School - Hits 94 mph in high school, so he may yet gain mph as his career progresses. Also has a very nice "slurve." At 6'3" 185 lbs, he's fairly tall and with some muscle, which is desirable. Control is an issue, but he has time on his side. Plus, he's Canadian, so he might be expected to be behind in his development, eh?
  
• MLB.com scouting report
• I'm no scout, but the initial foward arm movement of his delivery seems a bit jerky to me...? If anyone out there knows anything about pitching mechanics, I'd love to hear from you.
• 2nd Round:
• RHB SS Zack Cozart - College - Slap hitter with little power (0.304/0.382/0.428 at U Miss) and little speed. MLB.com says he has below-average range, but good hands and arm. Doesn't seem like a particularly good athlete. I guess I tend to be more partial to guys who get to the ball but boot it as opposed to guys that will catch anything, but only if it's hit right at them. So assuming MLB's report is accurate, this to me isn't looking like a very good pick, even as a defense-first middle infielder. This is the one pick that I think is something of a waste.
  
• MLB.com scouting report.
• A mention by Kevin Goldstein
• 3rd Round:
• RHP Scott Carroll - College - Not much written about him yet. He had a 2.93 ERA in 89 IP this season for Missouri State U, along with a 81/25 k/bb and 4 hr allowed. Nice season, though not as dominant as you'll sometimes see. Doug Gray found scouting info indicating that he can hit 94-95 on a good day, and has some variations on the split finger to go with his fastball. He's also a very good-sized kid at 6'5", 220lbs, which hopefully means he'll be durable.
• Again, I'm clueless as a scout, but my impressions of his video are that he's got a fairly smooth delivery (compared to Lotzkar, for example), and a relatively low arm angle (certainly not a side-armer though). He routinely was hitting 91 with movement, and he threw a few breaking pitches that I'm guessing are his splitters.
  
• RHB Neftali Soto - Puerto Rico Academy (high school) - Tall infielder (6'3" 180 lbs) with power and some speed. An average arm and poor range sound like they'll push him to the right side of the infield or the outfield. Has good potential as an offensive player, so this seems like an ok pick to me. He might pan out great, or turn into nothing. Given that the Reds already had several picks to this point, a high risk/high reward kind of player seems appropriate...though I'd feel better about it if the 2nd-round pick didn't seem like such a waste.
  
• MLB.com scouting report
  
• 4th Round
• SHB 1B Blake Stouffer - College - Put up an excellent hitting line at Texas A&M this season, hitting 0.402/0.490/0.663. Doesn't seem to have Frazier's power, and I'm guessing that Texas is a better hitting environment than New Jersey. But still, he was easily A&M's best hitter last season, and college first basemen are generally very reliable performers. Not particularly big at 6'0" 190 lbs, but he is a switch hitter.
• I need to stop doing this (I'm completely unqualified to scout players like this...but I don't have any other information on him), but looking at his video, he seems to have a smooth if fairly long swing. Will he hit better pitching?
  
• 5th Round
• LHP Andrew Bowman - College - The former Sun Devil and now-Nebraska Husker pitcher had a somewhat tough season, posting a 4.31 ERA in 39.7 IP, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, along with a solid 30/11 k/bb ratio. But at 6'4" and 190 lbs, he's a big kid and left-handed, which is a good way to get a shot at pro ball.
  
• His video shows that he has a pretty smooth delivery, and consistently hits 90-91 on his fastball, sometimes with movement tailing away from a right-handed hitter. He also seems to have a decent breaking ball that comes in 10 mph slower.
• Here's a small background article from Nebraska's school paper.

We'll see what tomorrow brings. I'm probably not going to cover the remaining picks in this sort of detail, but if something interesting comes up, I'll post about it. At first impressions, this looks like a nice draft--time to sign these guys and get them playing ball! :)

Reds Payroll, Now and in the Future

With the start of the season, and in light of the Reds' latest long term salary commitment, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the Reds' payroll for this and the coming few seasons.  First, based on this article from Deadspin, here are opening day payrolls for each team:

The Reds have pushed themselves up above the median, ranking 12th overall.  They are in a cluster of teams from the Arizona Diamondbacks (11th) through the Milwaukee Brewers (16th) that have pretty much average payroll.  This is a far cry from where the Reds used to be a few years ago, often in the lower third of payroll.

Why do we worry so much about payroll?  We hear a lot of talk about parity.  But nevertheless, there still is a clear relationship between team payroll and team quality:

There's scatter, but the regression line explains 32% of the variance between payroll and projected wins.  All but one team (the Phillies) with a payroll over $125 million is projected to win 83 or more games.  The two teams spending the least are projected to have terrible records.

Now, of course, there's a lot of scatter.  Teams spending roughly the same amount on player salaries may differ by 15 or more projected wins.  And these are just projected wins: inevitably, the relationship between actual 2014 wins and payroll will likely show even more scatter.

But the fact remains that teams that spend more, and especially those that spend more wisely, are projected to win more games.  Teams with higher payrolls can afford more talent, whether that's signing free agents or keeping their existing players.  Therefore, it makes sense to keep an eye on the Reds' payroll.

Here are the Reds' current payroll commitments for 2014, as well as the subsequent two seasons.  All data are from Cot's Contracts.

Reds 2014-2016 Payroll Commitments

Name	POS	ML Srv	Length / Total Value	2014	2015	2016
Votto, Joey	1b	6.027	10 yr/$225M (14-23)	$12,000,000	$14.00	$20.00
Phillips, Brandon	2b	9.022	6 yr/$72.5M (12-17)	$11,000,000	$12.00	$13.00
Bruce, Jay	rf	5.125	6 yr/$51M (11-16)	$10,041,667	$12.04	$12.54
Cueto, Johnny	rhp-s	6	4 yr/$27M (11-14)	$10,000,000	$0.80
Bailey, Homer	rhp-s	5.017	6 yr/$105M (14-19)+20 opt	$9,000,000	$10.00	$18.00
Ludwick, Ryan	lf	8.109	2 yr/$15M (13-14)+15 opt	$8,500,000	$4.50
Chapman, Aroldis	lhp-c	3.034	1 yr/$5M (14)+converted bonus	$7,835,772	$11.75	$15.67
Latos, Mat	rhp-s	4.079	2 yr/$11.5M (13-14)	$7,250,000	$9.67	FA
Broxton, Jonathan	rhp	8.02	3 yr/$21M (13-15)	$7,000,000	$9.00	$1.00
Leake, Mike	rhp-s	4	1 yr/$5.925M (14)	$5,925,000	$7.90	FA
Marshall, Sean	lhp	7.088	3 yr/$16.5M (13-15)	$5,500,000	$6.50	FA
Parra, Manny	lhp	6.063	2 yr/$5.5M (14-15)	$2,000,000	$3.50	FA
Schumaker, Skip	2b-of	7.051	2 yr/$5M (14-15)+16 cl opt	$2,000,000	$2.50	$0.50
Heisey, Chris	of	3.157	1 yr/$1.76M (14)	$1,760,000	$2.35	$2.93
Simon, Alfredo	rhp	4.142	1 yr/$1.5M (14)	$1,500,000	$2.00	FA
Ondrusek, Logan	rhp	3.125	2 yr/$2.3M (13-14)	$1,425,000	$1.90	$2.38
LeCure, Sam	rhp	3.072	2 yr/$3.05M (14-15)	$1,200,000	$1.85	$2.47
Santiago, Ramon	ss-2b	9.095	1 yr/$1.1M (14)	$1,100,000
Hannahan, Jack	3b	5.065	2 yr/$4M (13-14)+15 c opt	$1,000,000	$2.00
Pena, Brayan	c	6.081	2 yr/$2.275M (14-15)	$875,000	$1.40	FA
Cozart, Zack	ss	2.084	1 yr/$0.6M (14)	$600,000	$5.12	$7.68
Frazier, Todd	3b	2.071	1 yr/$0.6M (14)	$600,000	$6.48	$9.72
Mesoraco, Devin	c	2.028	1 yr/$0.525M (14)	$525,000	$4.64	$6.96
Hoover, J.J.	rhp	1.102	1 yr/$0.52M (14)	$520,000	$0.57	$1.20
Cingrani, Tony	lhp-s	0.163	1 yr/$0.5125M (14)	$512,500	$0.56	$0.62
Partch, Curtis	rhp	0.086	1 yr (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Christani, Nick	rhp	0.039	1 yr/$0.5M (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Hamilton, Billy	cf	0.028	1 yr/$0.5M (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Marshall, Brett	rhp	0.033	1 yr/$0.5M (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Soto, Neftali	3b	0.036	1 yr/$0.5M (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Barnhart, Tucker	c	0	1 yr (14)	$500,000	$0.55	$0.61
Totals				$112,669,939	$136.33	$118.30

The data above assume that the Reds will not pick up any of their options, and thus just pay the buyouts.  More on that in a sec.  Also, the values in red are estimates of what these players might get in salary arbitration, based on either their current salary or a WAR-based salary estimate, and a 40/60/80% estimate for what players will get each of their three years in their arbitration years.

I think these numbers are a little concerning.  Right now, the Reds have three players set to be free agents following this season (assuming the Reds don't pick up the options they have): Johnny Cueto, Ryan Ludwick, and Ramon Santiago.  Roger Bernadina should probably also be on this list, but I accidentally omitted him.  In any case, collectively, those three are combining to make $19.6 M this season, compared to $5.3 M next season in contract buyouts.  That would seem to free up $14.3 Million.

Unfortunately, at the same time, the Reds have three important players who will be arbitration eligible for the first time next year:  Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier, and Devin Mesoraco.  The latter three are all somewhere in the vicinity of league-average players.  Therefore, even though they'll only make 40% of their free agent value, they will probably earn an extra $15 million by themselves.  There goes the savings.  And on top of that, just about all players with existing contracts get an incremental raise, along with players who are in their arbitration years (Aroldis Chapman, Mat Latos, and Mike Leake).

All told, the minimum salary commitments the Reds currently are dealing with have them at about $136 million in 2015, which is about $24 million more than the 2014 payroll.  And that's assuming they don't pick up Johnny Cueto's option!  That scenario seems unfathomable right now.  But picking up his $10 M option would bring payroll to $145.5 Million.  If they try to keep Ludwick, they're over $150 million.  All of this would appear to make the Reds pretty strapped for cash in the coming year.  And it doesn't get a lot better after that: while the payroll commitments drop in 2016, that would require that the Reds lose all of Cueto, Latos, Leake, Marshall, and Parra to free agency.  Between escalating salaries for the young guys, plus Votto and Bailey getting big jumps in their salaries, the Reds are going to need that TV deal to pan out for them to avoid having to gut the team.

We don't know what the Reds' financial situation really is, of course.  It could be that they're running (or anticipating) the kinds of profits that would permit this kind of payroll explosion.  But if this season goes poorly, and the Reds aren't as competitive as we all hope them to be, I would think some effort to trim payroll at the trade deadline might be in order.

Thoughts?  Will the Reds' TV contract let them keep this team together?  Or are we looking at the onset of a retooling period in the next few years?