Table of Contents

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Turkey Day Link Dump

I thought I'd send out a "Happy Turkey Day" to everyone. My parents were in town a few weeks back and we had our turkey dinner then, so we're going out to eat tonight for the first time in either of our lives. Should be fun.

I've been working up my player value piece on pitchers, but it's been slow going. Hopefully tomorrow or the next day.

Link Dump

Torii Torii Torii

Congrats to the Angels for signing Torii Hunter. I think. Hope his body holds up.

Batting Stat Reliability

Pizza Cutter has a fantastic article at StatSpeak that addresses the question of how many PA's we need to have a reliable indication of what a player will do in the next set of PA's of equivalent number. The results may surprise you:
50 PA - swing percentage100 PA - contact rate, response bias (both just missed at 50… the real number is probably around 70)
150 PA - K rate, line drive rate, pitches/PA
200 PA - BB rate, grounder rate, GB/FB ratio
250 PA - flyball rate
300 PA - HR rate, HR/FB
350 PA - sensitivity
400 PA - none
450 PA -none
500 PA - OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B rate, popup rate
550 PA - ISO
600 PA - none
650 PA - none
Req more than 650 PA's: AVG, BABIP, 2B+3B rate, WPA, WPA/LI
A few quick thoughts after seeing those results:

1) This gives a good reason to pay a lot of attention to batted ball stats, especially early in the season.

2) We have some reason to be skeptical of the surprisingly good first-season performances of Jeff Keppinger and Norris Hopper.

3) I wonder if there is any reason, aside from perhaps historical documentation, to continue doing monthly reviews of the Reds next season, especially when I look at monthly player splits...

Pitchf/x for the masses

You've likely already seen this, but Josh Kalk put out a fabulous pitchf/x tool. It only does a few things so far, but it has the potential to be a great resource for folks like me who are too lazy to put together their own pitchf/x database.

Don't forget to also check out his player cards at Kalk's blog, which features even more information on both pitchers and batters.