Thursday Night Stats - Through July 23rd

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary. It's been a while, but oh well.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	59	42	0.584	0.0	515	5.09	412	4.08	61	0.508	95
MIL	58	43	0.574	1.0	472	4.68	439	4.34	54	0.525	93
STL	57	46	0.553	3.0	494	4.79	467	4.54	54	0.559	90
CIN	50	53	0.485	10.0	453	4.40	498	4.84	47	0.678	79
PIT	47	54	0.465	12.0	499	4.94	574	5.68	44	0.705	75
HOU	46	55	0.455	13.0	432	4.28	494	4.89	44	0.721	74

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

It's been a while, but the Reds have gone 15-11 since my last update, which has pulled them out of the cellar and into (a distant) 4th place...with the second-worst offense in the division, and the third-worst defense, they don't look likely to surge at this point, but it's nice to see them out of the basement.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have stalled a bit, going 11-14 and seeing declines on both offense and defense.....The Cardinals and Brew Crew have essentially moved in equal and opposite directions, but both are within striking distance of first place... THT's division graph does a great job of illustrating the bimodal NL Central as it is now:

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Dunn	Adam	398	19%	26%	19%	0.245	0.237	0.389	0.554	0.317	0.943	1.102	66.8	7.22	32.3
Encarnacion	Edwin	367	11%	15%	14%	0.267	0.266	0.354	0.513	0.247	0.867	0.881	55.4	6.14	21.8
Hairston	Jerry	213	7%	12%	30%	0.395	0.351	0.398	0.495	0.144	0.893	0.768	37.7	7.56	19.1
Phillips	Brandon	433	6%	16%	17%	0.294	0.275	0.319	0.465	0.190	0.784	0.782	57.3	5.10	15.4
Votto	Joey D	371	9%	19%	26%	0.311	0.272	0.342	0.449	0.177	0.791	0.855	49.0	5.27	14.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	405	15%	16%	19%	0.261	0.243	0.356	0.416	0.173	0.772	0.854	49.6	4.99	12.5
Ross	Dave	145	18%	21%	26%	0.325	0.259	0.400	0.411	0.152	0.811	0.888	19.8	5.85	7.2
Bruce	Jay A	218	7%	26%	25%	0.343	0.273	0.330	0.429	0.156	0.759	0.797	25.4	4.57	4.7
Keppinger	Jeff S	272	7%	4%	21%	0.289	0.287	0.342	0.385	0.098	0.727	0.774	30.1	4.39	4.6
Freel	Ryan	143	6%	13%	20%	0.342	0.298	0.340	0.359	0.061	0.699	0.666	15.1	4.18	1.7
Valentin	Javier	86	6%	15%	15%	0.299	0.263	0.302	0.388	0.125	0.690	0.641	9.3	4.07	0.8
Cabrera	Jolbert	23	9%	22%	20%	0.438	0.333	0.391	0.381	0.048	0.772	0.651	2.4	4.54	0.4
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.1
Hopper	Norris S	58	9%	10%	18%	0.227	0.200	0.286	0.200	0.000	0.486	0.719	3.5	2.17	-2.5
Phillips	Andy A	33	6%	21%	17%	0.208	0.161	0.212	0.226	0.065	0.438	0.583	1.2	1.18	-2.5
Hatteberg	Scott	61	11%	11%	19%	0.191	0.173	0.262	0.231	0.058	0.493	0.701	2.9	1.72	-3.4
Bako	Paul	242	10%	27%	20%	0.278	0.213	0.292	0.343	0.130	0.635	0.741	20.5	3.13	-3.9
Janish	Paul	72	8%	22%	22%	0.250	0.188	0.278	0.203	0.015	0.481	0.656	3.1	1.55	-4.3
Patterson	Corey	213	4%	12%	15%	0.188	0.190	0.224	0.335	0.145	0.559	0.714	15.8	2.50	-7.8

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Overall, the Reds' linear weights sum to 464, which is 11 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn retains the title of most valuable Reds hitter, and really re-established himself over the past month as he pushed his OPS well over the 0.900 mark.....I continue to be surprised that Hairston is still raked as the best on a per-out basis, though he keeps getting himself hurt which keeps the sample size small...PrOPS still thinks he's been lucky, and a 30% line drive rate is a pretty exceptional thing to see.....Encarnacion also had a really nice surge on offense, more than doubling his value over the past month.....On the other hand, Phillips and especially Votto have really struggled of late, and it shows in their season totals.....Don't look now, but David Ross has the second-highest walk rate on the club and an 0.400 OBP--nice to see the guy finally having some success again.....and the magic may have finally faded for Keppinger...I think he'll rebound a bit, and his OBP is still decent, but that power is now much more in line with what you could reasonably project based on his minor league numbers.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Dunn	Adam	LF	32.3	-0.7	-3.2	28.4
Phillips	Brandon	2B	15.4	8.8	0.6	24.9
Hairston	Jerry	SS	19.1	-1.1	1.1	19.1
Votto	Joey D	1B	14.3	7.0	-4.9	16.5
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	21.8	-11.2	0.5	11.1
Ross	Dave	C	7.2	-1.0	2.1	8.4
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	12.5	-5.8	-3.0	3.8
Bruce	Jay A	CF	4.7	-1.6	-0.1	3.0
Cabrera	Jolbert	SS	0.4	1.9	0.2	2.5
Bako	Paul	C	-3.9	2.5	3.8	2.4
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	4.6	-4.9	1.8	1.5
Freel	Ryan	CF	1.7	-1.3	0.2	0.5
Valentin	Javier	C	0.8	-1.1	0.3	0.0
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.1	1.0	0.1	-0.9
Phillips	Andy A	3B	-2.5	0.5	0.0	-2.0
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-2.5	0.2	-0.1	-2.4
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-3.4	0.4	-0.5	-3.6
Janish	Paul	SS	-4.3	-1.1	0.7	-4.8
Patterson	Corey	CF	-7.8	1.1	1.1	-5.6

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' fielding numbers sum to -6.5 runs, which is down about 7 runs from last month's check-in, but is still just a tad below average.....I have no idea what to make of Dunn's defensive numbers this year...anyone who watches games want to speculate? Is he running better this year, or is this just fielding stat volatility that we're seeing? My guess is the latter.....Encarnacion unfortunately coupled his offensive surge with some defensive woes, dropping from -3 runs to -11 runs in a month.....I'm not sure if I believe mine eyes, but Griffey Jr. is finally rated above replacement level on the year......Kepp's not doing as well at shortstop this year as he did last year--I have to wonder if the leg injury is part of the reason.....


Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	122.7	9.5	4.3	0.4	7%	51%	0.288	2.49	3.18	0.628	45.2	3.32	32.4	29.4
Cueto	Johnny	123.0	8.3	3.4	1.6	16%	38%	0.285	4.90	4.60	0.786	68.5	5.01	9.3	10.0
Lincoln	Mike	48.3	8.4	2.4	1.3	23%	57%	0.242	3.54	3.84	0.641	18.3	3.40	7.1	2.9
Harang	Aaron	123.0	7.9	2.5	1.5	13%	33%	0.321	4.76	4.05	0.822	71.6	5.24	6.2	17.6
Burton	Jared	48.3	9.3	3.2	0.6	7%	53%	0.307	2.23	2.83	0.645	19.2	3.58	6.2	8.3
Cordero	Francisco	46.3	9.5	5.6	0.8	9%	42%	0.287	3.50	4.03	0.684	21.1	4.10	5.5	2.7
Bray	Bill P	32.3	9.8	4.7	0.6	7%	36%	0.318	2.51	3.19	0.713	15.6	4.36	1.3	4.2
Mercker	Kent	13.7	3.9	5.3	0.7	7%	40%	0.279	3.29	4.78	0.750	6.6	4.35	0.6	-0.6
Majewski	Gary W	18.3	5.9	2.0	0.5	7%	52%	0.371	4.42	3.20	0.801	10.2	5.04	-0.6	2.4
Herrera	Daniel R.	3.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	94%	56%	0.375	9.00	5.35	0.972	2.5	7.63	-1.0	-0.3
Affeldt	Jeremy	50.3	9.5	3.6	1.3	17%	52%	0.321	3.75	3.84	0.771	27.5	4.92	-1.1	2.9
Weathers	David	43.0	6.1	4.0	1.0	12%	44%	0.296	3.35	4.61	0.777	25.8	5.39	-3.2	-1.2
Thompson	Daryl M	14.3	3.8	4.4	1.9	14%	40%	0.327	6.91	6.38	0.947	12.2	7.69	-3.2	-1.7
Coffey	Todd	16.0	3.4	3.4	1.7	24%	54%	0.310	6.75	5.84	0.901	11.7	6.60	-3.3	-2.6
Arroyo	Bronson	119.0	7.9	3.2	1.6	17%	39%	0.331	5.60	4.55	0.862	79.2	5.99	-3.9	10.3
Bailey	Homer	24.3	3.3	4.4	3.0	24%	42%	0.250	6.29	7.71	0.951	19.3	7.15	-3.9	-6.4
Belisle	Matt	29.7	4.2	1.8	1.2	14%	51%	0.364	7.28	4.31	0.914	23.5	7.13	-4.8	3.4
Fogg	Josh	45.7	4.9	2.8	1.8	14%	38%	0.288	7.09	5.41	0.857	30.5	6.00	-6.4	-5.3

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

The Reds' pitching has become Edinson Volquez and everyone else...I don't think anyone would have predicted that at the season's start...Volquez's ERA has finally reached the mid-2's, but the kid continues to pitch his heart out.....FIP continues to be much more positive about the Reds' rotation than their actual numbers, ranking 4 of our starters over 10 runs above replacement, which is in the realm of averageishness.....Cueto seems to be incrementally improving.....I really think that Jared Burton signing was a good one, you know?.....I'm not sounding alarm bells or anothing, but our 33-year old closer's k-rates are down and his walk rates are off the charts--and have been all season...Fangraphs says that Cordero's fastball velocity is unchanged from last year, though, which is somewhat reassuring.....

Overall, Reds' pitchers' base runs sum to 509, which is 12 more than they've actually allowed. Using this estimate, along with the lwts-estimated runs scored of 464, and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives a predicted Reds record of 47-56 (0.454). That's three wins worse than their actual record, and would place them at the bottom of the division--though to be fair, the Pirates and the Astros have also been a bit lucky.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.