Table of Contents

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Thursday Night Stats - Through July 23rd

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary. It's been a while, but oh well.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
CHN 59 42 0.584 0.0 515 5.09 412 4.08 61 0.508 95
MIL 58 43 0.574 1.0 472 4.68 439 4.34 54 0.525 93
STL 57 46 0.553 3.0 494 4.79 467 4.54 54 0.559 90
CIN 50 53 0.485 10.0 453 4.40 498 4.84 47 0.678 79
PIT 47 54 0.465 12.0 499 4.94 574 5.68 44 0.705 75
HOU 46 55 0.455 13.0 432 4.28 494 4.89 44 0.721 74
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

It's been a while, but the Reds have gone 15-11 since my last update, which has pulled them out of the cellar and into (a distant) 4th place...with the second-worst offense in the division, and the third-worst defense, they don't look likely to surge at this point, but it's nice to see them out of the basement.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have stalled a bit, going 11-14 and seeing declines on both offense and defense.....The Cardinals and Brew Crew have essentially moved in equal and opposite directions, but both are within striking distance of first place... THT's division graph does a great job of illustrating the bimodal NL Central as it is now:

Hitting
Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Dunn Adam 398 19% 26% 19% 0.245 0.237 0.389 0.554 0.317 0.943 1.102 66.8 7.22 32.3
Encarnacion Edwin 367 11% 15% 14% 0.267 0.266 0.354 0.513 0.247 0.867 0.881 55.4 6.14 21.8
Hairston Jerry 213 7% 12% 30% 0.395 0.351 0.398 0.495 0.144 0.893 0.768 37.7 7.56 19.1
Phillips Brandon 433 6% 16% 17% 0.294 0.275 0.319 0.465 0.190 0.784 0.782 57.3 5.10 15.4
Votto Joey D 371 9% 19% 26% 0.311 0.272 0.342 0.449 0.177 0.791 0.855 49.0 5.27 14.3
Griffey Jr. Ken 405 15% 16% 19% 0.261 0.243 0.356 0.416 0.173 0.772 0.854 49.6 4.99 12.5
Ross Dave 145 18% 21% 26% 0.325 0.259 0.400 0.411 0.152 0.811 0.888 19.8 5.85 7.2
Bruce Jay A 218 7% 26% 25% 0.343 0.273 0.330 0.429 0.156 0.759 0.797 25.4 4.57 4.7
Keppinger Jeff S 272 7% 4% 21% 0.289 0.287 0.342 0.385 0.098 0.727 0.774 30.1 4.39 4.6
Freel Ryan 143 6% 13% 20% 0.342 0.298 0.340 0.359 0.061 0.699 0.666 15.1 4.18 1.7
Valentin Javier 86 6% 15% 15% 0.299 0.263 0.302 0.388 0.125 0.690 0.641 9.3 4.07 0.8
Cabrera Jolbert 23 9% 22% 20% 0.438 0.333 0.391 0.381 0.048 0.772 0.651 2.4 4.54 0.4
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.1
Hopper Norris S 58 9% 10% 18% 0.227 0.200 0.286 0.200 0.000 0.486 0.719 3.5 2.17 -2.5
Phillips Andy A 33 6% 21% 17% 0.208 0.161 0.212 0.226 0.065 0.438 0.583 1.2 1.18 -2.5
Hatteberg Scott 61 11% 11% 19% 0.191 0.173 0.262 0.231 0.058 0.493 0.701 2.9 1.72 -3.4
Bako Paul 242 10% 27% 20% 0.278 0.213 0.292 0.343 0.130 0.635 0.741 20.5 3.13 -3.9
Janish Paul 72 8% 22% 22% 0.250 0.188 0.278 0.203 0.015 0.481 0.656 3.1 1.55 -4.3
Patterson Corey 213 4% 12% 15% 0.188 0.190 0.224 0.335 0.145 0.559 0.714 15.8 2.50 -7.8
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Overall, the Reds' linear weights sum to 464, which is 11 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn retains the title of most valuable Reds hitter, and really re-established himself over the past month as he pushed his OPS well over the 0.900 mark.....I continue to be surprised that Hairston is still raked as the best on a per-out basis, though he keeps getting himself hurt which keeps the sample size small...PrOPS still thinks he's been lucky, and a 30% line drive rate is a pretty exceptional thing to see.....Encarnacion also had a really nice surge on offense, more than doubling his value over the past month.....On the other hand, Phillips and especially Votto have really struggled of late, and it shows in their season totals.....Don't look now, but David Ross has the second-highest walk rate on the club and an 0.400 OBP--nice to see the guy finally having some success again.....and the magic may have finally faded for Keppinger...I think he'll rebound a bit, and his OBP is still decent, but that power is now much more in line with what you could reasonably project based on his minor league numbers.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Dunn Adam LF 32.3 -0.7 -3.2 28.4
Phillips Brandon 2B 15.4 8.8 0.6 24.9
Hairston Jerry SS 19.1 -1.1 1.1 19.1
Votto Joey D 1B 14.3 7.0 -4.9 16.5
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 21.8 -11.2 0.5 11.1
Ross Dave C 7.2 -1.0 2.1 8.4
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 12.5 -5.8 -3.0 3.8
Bruce Jay A CF 4.7 -1.6 -0.1 3.0
Cabrera Jolbert SS 0.4 1.9 0.2 2.5
Bako Paul C -3.9 2.5 3.8 2.4
Keppinger Jeff S SS 4.6 -4.9 1.8 1.5
Freel Ryan CF 1.7 -1.3 0.2 0.5
Valentin Javier C 0.8 -1.1 0.3 0.0
Castro Juan SS -2.1 1.0 0.1 -0.9
Phillips Andy A 3B -2.5 0.5 0.0 -2.0
Hopper Norris S LF -2.5 0.2 -0.1 -2.4
Hatteberg Scott 1B -3.4 0.4 -0.5 -3.6
Janish Paul SS -4.3 -1.1 0.7 -4.8
Patterson Corey CF -7.8 1.1 1.1 -5.6
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' fielding numbers sum to -6.5 runs, which is down about 7 runs from last month's check-in, but is still just a tad below average.....I have no idea what to make of Dunn's defensive numbers this year...anyone who watches games want to speculate? Is he running better this year, or is this just fielding stat volatility that we're seeing? My guess is the latter.....Encarnacion unfortunately coupled his offensive surge with some defensive woes, dropping from -3 runs to -11 runs in a month.....I'm not sure if I believe mine eyes, but Griffey Jr. is finally rated above replacement level on the year......Kepp's not doing as well at shortstop this year as he did last year--I have to wonder if the leg injury is part of the reason.....


Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Volquez Edinson 122.7 9.5 4.3 0.4 7% 51% 0.288 2.49 3.18 0.628 45.2 3.32 32.4 29.4
Cueto Johnny 123.0 8.3 3.4 1.6 16% 38% 0.285 4.90 4.60 0.786 68.5 5.01 9.3 10.0
Lincoln Mike 48.3 8.4 2.4 1.3 23% 57% 0.242 3.54 3.84 0.641 18.3 3.40 7.1 2.9
Harang Aaron 123.0 7.9 2.5 1.5 13% 33% 0.321 4.76 4.05 0.822 71.6 5.24 6.2 17.6
Burton Jared 48.3 9.3 3.2 0.6 7% 53% 0.307 2.23 2.83 0.645 19.2 3.58 6.2 8.3
Cordero Francisco 46.3 9.5 5.6 0.8 9% 42% 0.287 3.50 4.03 0.684 21.1 4.10 5.5 2.7
Bray Bill P 32.3 9.8 4.7 0.6 7% 36% 0.318 2.51 3.19 0.713 15.6 4.36 1.3 4.2
Mercker Kent 13.7 3.9 5.3 0.7 7% 40% 0.279 3.29 4.78 0.750 6.6 4.35 0.6 -0.6
Majewski Gary W 18.3 5.9 2.0 0.5 7% 52% 0.371 4.42 3.20 0.801 10.2 5.04 -0.6 2.4
Herrera Daniel R. 3.0 12.0 3.0 3.0 94% 56% 0.375 9.00 5.35 0.972 2.5 7.63 -1.0 -0.3
Affeldt Jeremy 50.3 9.5 3.6 1.3 17% 52% 0.321 3.75 3.84 0.771 27.5 4.92 -1.1 2.9
Weathers David 43.0 6.1 4.0 1.0 12% 44% 0.296 3.35 4.61 0.777 25.8 5.39 -3.2 -1.2
Thompson Daryl M 14.3 3.8 4.4 1.9 14% 40% 0.327 6.91 6.38 0.947 12.2 7.69 -3.2 -1.7
Coffey Todd 16.0 3.4 3.4 1.7 24% 54% 0.310 6.75 5.84 0.901 11.7 6.60 -3.3 -2.6
Arroyo Bronson 119.0 7.9 3.2 1.6 17% 39% 0.331 5.60 4.55 0.862 79.2 5.99 -3.9 10.3
Bailey Homer 24.3 3.3 4.4 3.0 24% 42% 0.250 6.29 7.71 0.951 19.3 7.15 -3.9 -6.4
Belisle Matt 29.7 4.2 1.8 1.2 14% 51% 0.364 7.28 4.31 0.914 23.5 7.13 -4.8 3.4
Fogg Josh 45.7 4.9 2.8 1.8 14% 38% 0.288 7.09 5.41 0.857 30.5 6.00 -6.4 -5.3
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

The Reds' pitching has become Edinson Volquez and everyone else...I don't think anyone would have predicted that at the season's start...Volquez's ERA has finally reached the mid-2's, but the kid continues to pitch his heart out.....FIP continues to be much more positive about the Reds' rotation than their actual numbers, ranking 4 of our starters over 10 runs above replacement, which is in the realm of averageishness.....Cueto seems to be incrementally improving.....I really think that Jared Burton signing was a good one, you know?.....I'm not sounding alarm bells or anothing, but our 33-year old closer's k-rates are down and his walk rates are off the charts--and have been all season...Fangraphs says that Cordero's fastball velocity is unchanged from last year, though, which is somewhat reassuring.....

Overall, Reds' pitchers' base runs sum to 509, which is 12 more than they've actually allowed. Using this estimate, along with the lwts-estimated runs scored of 464, and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives a predicted Reds record of 47-56 (0.454). That's three wins worse than their actual record, and would place them at the bottom of the division--though to be fair, the Pirates and the Astros have also been a bit lucky.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.