Table of Contents

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Tuesday Night Reds Monitor - Through Monday, 23 June

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
CHN 48 28 0.632 0.0 406 5.34 297 3.91 49 0.488 102
STL 44 33 0.571 4.5 362 4.70 338 4.39 41 0.541 93
MIL 42 34 0.553 6.0 344 4.52 343 4.51 38 0.558 90
PIT 36 40 0.474 12.0 374 4.92 418 5.50 34 0.628 77
HOU 35 41 0.461 13.0 332 4.37 369 4.86 34 0.640 75
CIN 35 42 0.455 13.5 328 4.26 370 4.81 34 0.647 74
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

...does it really matter at this point? The Reds are in last place, 13.5 out, went 2-4 over the past week, are last in the division in runs scored and 4th in runs allowed (almost a full run more per game than the Cubs).....Division rankings haven't changed, though Milwaukee went on a 6-1 surge to close a bit, while the Cubs gained a game on the Cards...The Cubs continue to be on pace for 100+ wins...

Hitting

Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Dunn Adam 294 21% 26% 16% 0.235 0.219 0.384 0.491 0.272 0.875 1.017 44.4 6.44 18.9
Votto Joey D 272 9% 18% 26% 0.324 0.293 0.357 0.500 0.207 0.857 0.896 40.9 6.14 16.3
Phillips Brandon 321 7% 16% 17% 0.286 0.271 0.321 0.488 0.217 0.809 0.802 44.1 5.31 13.4
Hairston Jerry 142 6% 14% 31% 0.390 0.336 0.382 0.480 0.144 0.862 0.751 24.4 7.11 11.7
Encarnacion Edwin 290 10% 17% 14% 0.254 0.241 0.324 0.447 0.206 0.771 0.808 36.8 4.93 9.2
Griffey Jr. Ken 296 15% 15% 17% 0.269 0.249 0.358 0.402 0.153 0.760 0.823 34.3 4.74 7.5
Keppinger Jeff S 167 7% 5% 19% 0.324 0.322 0.370 0.441 0.119 0.811 0.781 22.2 5.51 7.3
Bruce Jay A 114 11% 22% 25% 0.366 0.300 0.386 0.470 0.170 0.856 0.875 16.8 6.30 6.9
Freel Ryan 143 6% 13% 20% 0.342 0.298 0.340 0.359 0.061 0.699 0.666 15.1 4.18 1.8
Cabrera Jolbert 20 10% 20% 23% 0.500 0.389 0.450 0.444 0.055 0.894 0.678 3.0 7.27 1.5
Bako Paul 195 10% 26% 20% 0.288 0.230 0.306 0.385 0.155 0.691 0.764 19.7 3.81 0.6
Ross Dave 89 16% 20% 19% 0.296 0.233 0.356 0.315 0.082 0.671 0.733 8.6 3.90 0.5
Hopper Norris S 42 7% 5% 21% 0.265 0.250 0.325 0.250 0.000 0.575 0.760 3.7 3.30 -0.4
Phillips Andy A 23 9% 17% 18% 0.176 0.143 0.217 0.190 0.047 0.407 0.633 0.7 0.97 -1.9
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.1
Valentin Javier 59 7% 15% 9% 0.261 0.222 0.271 0.278 0.056 0.549 0.557 4.0 2.42 -2.1
Hatteberg Scott 61 11% 11% 19% 0.191 0.173 0.262 0.231 0.058 0.493 0.701 2.9 1.72 -3.4
Janish Paul 67 7% 22% 23% 0.239 0.180 0.254 0.197 0.017 0.451 0.640 2.4 1.27 -4.6
Patterson Corey 192 4% 11% 14% 0.182 0.189 0.222 0.344 0.155 0.566 0.723 14.5 2.54 -6.6
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Reds' team linear weights total 338, which is 10 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn's slumping, but continues to have been the most productive offensive player on the team.....Votto had a heck of a week, though, and almost closed the gap.....Jay Bruce is slumping a bit too, and with the small sample sizes saw his OPS fall from a Bruceian 0.998 to a fairly mundane 0.856.....Paul Bako has now officially fallen to below 1 run above replacement on offense, and is actually being out-"hit" by David Ross on a rate basis, but as you'll see his defense keeps him an above-replacement level contributers for now.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Votto Joey D 1B 16.3 7.6 -3.6 20.4
Phillips Brandon 2B 13.4 6.2 0.4 20.1
Dunn Adam LF 18.9 -2.1 -2.5 14.4
Hairston Jerry SS 11.7 -2.4 0.7 9.9
Bruce Jay A RF 6.9 0.4 -0.2 7.2
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 9.2 -3.0 0.4 6.6
Bako Paul C 0.6 1.9 3.1 5.6
Keppinger Jeff S SS 7.3 -3.5 1.2 5.0
Cabrera Jolbert SS 1.5 1.9 0.2 3.5
Freel Ryan CF 1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.6
Ross Dave C 0.5 -2.1 1.3 -0.4
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 7.5 -5.7 -2.2 -0.4
Castro Juan SS -2.1 1.5 0.1 -0.5
Hopper Norris S LF -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6
Phillips Andy A 3B -1.9 0.4 0.0 -1.5
Patterson Corey CF -6.6 3.5 1.0 -2.2
Valentin Javier C -2.1 -1.2 0.3 -3.0
Hatteberg Scott 1B -3.4 0.4 -0.5 -3.6
Janish Paul SS -4.6 -1.2 0.6 -5.2
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' total fielding numbers sum to 1 run above average...I'm just as surprised by that as you, and THT's team stats still have the Reds a tick below average on defense...but Brandon Phillips, Votto, and Corey Patterson have all been pretty darn good in the field.....Votto's hot offense and surprisingly-good fielding brings him to the top of the list, followed closely by Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's slump with the stick draws him down to a fairly distant third.....By my estimates, the Reds currently have nine players who have contributed below replacement-level performances so far this season...that includes Ken Griffey Jr, who has hit 0.261/0.363/0.426 (an 0.789 OPS) in 553 AB's since June 24th of last year (thanks, fangraphs)...I love the guy, love his career, and think he is one of the best of his generation and a shoe-in hall of famer...but he has absolutely no business being a presumptive All-Star starting outfielder this year...

Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Volquez Edinson 95.0 10.4 4.3 0.3 5% 51% 0.275 1.71 2.65 0.560 27.4 2.59 32.3 27.7
Cordero Francisco 32.7 9.6 5.0 0.8 10% 41% 0.225 2.76 3.76 0.596 11.5 3.18 9.7 3.2
Harang Aaron 106.0 7.7 2.0 1.3 11% 33% 0.322 4.33 3.60 0.794 57.8 4.91 8.8 19.7
Cueto Johnny 91.7 7.9 3.3 1.8 17% 37% 0.280 5.01 4.76 0.803 52.5 5.15 5.1 5.2
Burton Jared 39.3 9.4 3.0 0.7 8% 52% 0.306 2.52 2.87 0.655 16.1 3.69 4.4 6.3
Bray Bill P 22.7 8.3 4.8 0.4 5% 37% 0.292 2.38 3.24 0.660 9.6 3.79 2.3 2.7
Thompson Daryl M 5.0 3.6 7.2 0.0 0% 31% 0.250 0.00 4.58 0.642 2.0 3.53 1.2 0.4
Lincoln Mike 34.7 7.3 2.3 1.8 30% 60% 0.255 4.93 4.72 0.756 17.3 4.49 0.8 -1.6
Mercker Kent 13.7 3.9 5.3 0.7 7% 40% 0.279 3.29 4.72 0.750 6.6 4.35 0.5 -0.6
Majewski Gary W 7.7 5.8 3.5 1.2 12% 48% 0.333 4.70 4.78 0.830 4.6 5.37 -0.6 -0.4
Herrera Daniel R. 3.0 12.0 3.0 3.0 94% 56% 0.375 9.00 5.28 0.972 2.5 7.63 -1.0 -0.3
Coffey Todd 15.3 2.9 3.5 1.8 26% 55% 0.278 6.46 6.03 0.879 10.4 6.14 -2.5 -2.9
Affeldt Jeremy 36.0 9.8 3.5 1.5 21% 55% 0.333 4.50 3.96 0.807 21.5 5.37 -2.7 1.4
Weathers David 28.0 5.8 4.5 1.6 18% 42% 0.273 3.86 5.43 0.822 17.7 5.68 -3.1 -3.5
Arroyo Bronson 86.0 8.5 3.3 1.5 16% 37% 0.342 5.55 4.25 0.855 57.2 5.99 -3.2 9.7
Belisle Matt 29.7 4.2 1.8 1.2 14% 51% 0.364 7.28 4.25 0.914 23.5 7.13 -4.9 3.4
Bailey Homer 12.3 2.2 7.3 4.4 30% 37% 0.227 8.76 10.74 1.138 13.9 10.17 -6.2 -7.5
Fogg Josh 28.3 5.4 3.2 2.2 17% 38% 0.317 9.85 6.00 0.964 24.1 7.67 -9.4 -5.3
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

It's amazing to see the dropoff between Volquez's performance and the rest of the pitching staff.....Harang has struggled of late, but his FIP remains very strong and among the league leaders.....Arroyo has shown a similar difference between his ERA and FIP nearly all season, though today's outing (which is not included in these stats) won't help his cause with either statistic.....Cueto's two recent outings have his FIP back under 5...I hope the kid goes on a decent little tear here.

Overall, the Reds Base Runs sum to 376 runs, which is 6 more than they've actually allowed. Combined with their lwts-estimated 338 runs scored in the Pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.447, which indicates that the Reds are probably about a game "lucky" thus far in the standings.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.