Table of Contents

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 15 June

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update
Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
CHN 45 25 0.643 0.0 376 5.37 271 3.87 46 0.489 104
STL 42 29 0.592 3.5 341 4.80 316 4.46 38 0.527 96
MIL 36 33 0.522 8.5 305 4.42 318 4.61 33 0.581 85
PIT 34 36 0.486 11.0 346 4.95 370 5.28 33 0.609 79
HOU 33 37 0.471 12.0 311 4.44 345 4.93 32 0.620 76
CIN 33 38 0.465 12.5 311 4.38 349 4.91 32 0.626 75
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since I last checked in, the Reds went 5-7 (0.417), but it feels like things went even worse...they have regained the title of worst offense in the division, though thanks to slippage by Houston's pitching staff, their defense now ranks (a distant) 4th.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have the best record in baseball, top the division in both offense and defense, and remain on pace to break the 100-win plateau...the Cardinals continue to surprise, though Pythagoras thinks they have four wins more than they should.....Milwaukee's resurgence seems to have stalled.....Houston had a very bad week and a half, going 2-9 to drop from 3rd to 5th place.....

Hitting

Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Dunn Adam 273 21% 25% 16% 0.238 0.229 0.396 0.524 0.295 0.920 1.059 44.6 7.09 22.6
Votto Joey D 248 10% 18% 24% 0.299 0.275 0.347 0.486 0.211 0.833 0.894 35.5 5.75 13.9
Phillips Brandon 296 7% 16% 17% 0.274 0.265 0.314 0.493 0.228 0.807 0.816 40.1 5.18 13.0
Hairston Jerry 142 6% 14% 31% 0.390 0.336 0.382 0.480 0.144 0.862 0.751 24.4 7.11 12.4
Encarnacion Edwin 269 10% 17% 13% 0.260 0.244 0.327 0.450 0.206 0.777 0.798 34.4 4.99 10.3
Bruce Jay A 88 13% 16% 27% 0.379 0.342 0.432 0.566 0.224 0.998 0.997 16.4 8.60 9.7
Keppinger Jeff S 163 7% 5% 19% 0.326 0.324 0.373 0.446 0.122 0.819 0.789 22.0 5.62 8.3
Griffey Jr. Ken 283 15% 14% 17% 0.266 0.245 0.357 0.392 0.147 0.749 0.813 31.8 4.59 7.6
Bako Paul 180 10% 26% 21% 0.299 0.238 0.315 0.406 0.168 0.721 0.782 19.6 4.16 3.1
Freel Ryan 143 6% 13% 20% 0.342 0.298 0.340 0.359 0.061 0.699 0.666 15.1 4.18 2.5
Cabrera Jolbert 7 14% 14% 40% 0.600 0.500 0.571 0.500 0.000 1.071 N/A 1.5 13.35 1.1
Ross Dave 81 16% 20% 20% 0.286 0.227 0.354 0.318 0.091 0.672 0.757 8.1 4.03 1.1
Hopper Norris S 30 7% 0% 14% 0.240 0.240 0.321 0.240 0.000 0.561 0.730 2.6 3.29 -0.2
Phillips Andy A 21 10% 14% 19% 0.188 0.158 0.238 0.211 0.053 0.449 0.660 0.9 1.43 -1.3
Valentin Javier 55 5% 16% 9% 0.279 0.235 0.273 0.294 0.059 0.567 0.546 3.9 2.58 -1.4
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.0
Hatteberg Scott 61 11% 11% 19% 0.191 0.173 0.262 0.231 0.058 0.493 0.701 2.9 1.72 -3.1
Janish Paul 57 7% 25% 24% 0.263 0.192 0.263 0.212 0.020 0.475 0.643 2.4 1.49 -3.2
Patterson Corey 172 5% 11% 13% 0.188 0.193 0.229 0.348 0.155 0.577 0.712 13.9 2.73 -3.9
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' team linear weights total 320 runs, which is 9 more than they've actually scored (both numbers park adjusted).....Dunn continues to be the Reds' most valuable hitter by a considerable margin.....Votto overtook a slumping Phillips for the second spot....Jerry Hairston's rate of production has actually been equal to Dunn's this season, based on linear weights...Dunn does it with walks and homers, while Hairston does it with singles and doubles...when the latter equal the former in total number of bases, they're more valuable...PrOPS thinks he's overachieved though, so look for Hairston to return to earth when he returns.....It apparently is possible to get Jay Bruce out now and then, but he's still having a heck of a first month in the big leagues.....Encarnacion has been hot these last two weeks, but unless he goes on an extended tear, his first half is going to be very disappointing.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Phillips Brandon 2B 13.0 5.3 0.4 18.8
Dunn Adam LF 22.6 -2.5 -2.3 17.8
Votto Joey D 1B 13.9 6.7 -3.2 17.4
Bruce Jay A CF 9.7 1.1 0.0 10.9
Hairston Jerry SS 12.4 -2.4 0.7 10.6
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 10.3 -3.8 0.4 6.9
Bako Paul C 3.1 0.9 2.8 6.9
Keppinger Jeff S SS 8.3 -3.2 1.2 6.3
Cabrera Jolbert SS 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.7
Freel Ryan CF 2.5 -1.4 0.2 1.2
Patterson Corey CF -3.9 3.5 0.9 0.5
Ross Dave C 1.1 -2.3 1.2 -0.1
Hopper Norris S LF -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 7.6 -5.6 -2.2 -0.3
Castro Juan SS -2.0 1.5 0.1 -0.4
Phillips Andy A 3B -1.3 0.4 0.0 -0.8
Valentin Javier C -1.4 -1.2 0.3 -2.3
Hatteberg Scott 1B -3.1 0.4 -0.5 -3.2
Janish Paul SS -3.2 -0.7 0.5 -3.4
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Overall, the Reds' fielding sums to -3 runs vs. average, which is an uptick of 4 runs in the past week and a half...THT's team plus/minus fielding stat agrees, which might make one think that this might be real...most of it comes from a bump to Phillips's numbers, and a huge swing in Patterson's numbers in CF...The former I"ll believe, but the latter is probably more of an indication how shaky these fielding numbers can be, especially in the outfield.....Anyway, thanks to a nice bump in his fielding numbers, Phillips overtook Dunn as the Reds most valuable position player.....a league average starter should have 8.8 RAR by now, so the Reds can only boast 5 guys who have clearly been above average players.....Hey, it's mid-June, and Griffey is still rated as a replacement player.

Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Volquez Edinson 88.0 10.7 4.5 0.3 5% 52% 0.268 1.64 2.71 0.557 25.7 2.63 31.4 26.9
Harang Aaron 101.0 7.9 1.8 1.2 11% 33% 0.315 4.10 3.47 0.772 51.8 4.61 13.7 22.3
Cordero Francisco 30.7 10.0 5.3 0.9 11% 40% 0.208 2.64 3.89 0.582 10.4 3.06 10.4 2.9
Burton Jared 36.3 9.9 2.7 0.7 9% 52% 0.307 2.48 2.76 0.647 14.7 3.63 5.0 7.0
Bray Bill P 21.3 8.9 4.6 0.4 5% 37% 0.300 2.53 3.13 0.669 9.2 3.88 2.4 3.3
Cueto Johnny 79.7 8.1 3.5 2.0 19% 37% 0.281 5.42 5.12 0.833 49.3 5.57 2.3 3.1
Lincoln Mike 32.0 7.6 2.3 2.0 30% 60% 0.244 5.06 4.75 0.753 16.0 4.50 1.3 -0.9
Mercker Kent 13.7 3.9 5.3 0.7 7% 40% 0.279 3.29 4.73 0.750 6.6 4.35 0.8 -0.4
Affeldt Jeremy 32.7 9.9 3.6 1.7 26% 56% 0.311 4.68 4.17 0.765 17.8 4.91 -0.1 1.2
Herrera Daniel R. 3.0 12.0 3.0 3.0 94% 56% 0.375 9.00 5.30 0.972 2.5 7.63 -0.9 -0.3
Majewski Gary W 5.0 5.4 3.6 1.8 16% 47% 0.312 3.60 5.97 0.917 3.7 6.57 -0.9 -0.8
Arroyo Bronson 79.7 8.5 3.5 1.5 16% 37% 0.343 5.31 4.29 0.853 53.3 6.02 -1.6 10.3
Coffey Todd 15.3 2.9 3.5 1.8 26% 55% 0.278 6.46 6.05 0.879 10.4 6.14 -2.1 -2.6
Belisle Matt 29.7 4.2 1.8 1.2 14% 51% 0.364 7.28 4.26 0.914 23.5 7.13 -4.3 4.0
Weathers David 25.3 6.0 5.0 1.8 20% 41% 0.296 4.26 5.78 0.883 18.6 6.60 -4.8 -3.6
Bailey Homer 12.3 2.2 7.3 4.4 30% 37% 0.227 8.76 10.76 1.138 13.9 10.17 -5.9 -7.2
Fogg Josh 28.3 5.4 3.2 2.2 17% 38% 0.317 9.85 6.01 0.964 24.1 7.67 -8.8 -4.7
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Let's see, good 2008 Reds pitching performances: Volquez, Harang, Cordero, Burton... and umm... Bray? If you believe his peripherals (and I do), Arroyo has been ok.....Cueto's K/BB rates continue to be pretty good, but his Milton-esque proclivity for long flies is killing him.....There's recently been calls for his dismissal, but I have to say that Lincoln's GB% and other peripherals are encouraging, despite that scary HR/F%.....Finally, it's hard to imagine a worse return than Homer Bailey's...his velocity is down, he hasn't been striking people out, and he's still walking a ton...I know they say he's not injured, but he hid an injury last year...I just can't get over the feeling that there must be something wrong with him...how many 22-year olds lose 2-3 mph of velocity for no apparent reason? ... I would not think many, though apparently something similar is happening with both Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, so maybe I'm wrong.

Overall, the Reds' base runs total 352 runs, which is 3 more than they've actually allowed. Combining this number with the lwts-estimated 320 runs scored and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.453 (32-39), which means the Reds are unfortunately about a win better than expected. Getting trounced 9-0 will do that to your run differential, though. Figures that the one game I get a chance to see since April turns out to be such a stinker....

I have to admit, unless the Reds score some nice returns from the guys on the trading block, it's not shaping up to be a very interesting rest of the season.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.