Table of Contents

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Wednesday Night Reds Monitor - Through June 3rd, 2008

Sorry it's been so long since the last update, but between finishing up my dissertation and house-hunting, I've had little spare time of late. Might get better after next Tuesday, but probably will not.

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.


I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update
Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
CHN 38 21 0.644 0.0 330 5.59 237 4.02 39 0.505 104
STL 35 25 0.583 3.5 282 4.69 254 4.23 33 0.539 95
HOU 31 28 0.525 7.0 269 4.56 279 4.73 28 0.573 85
MIL 31 28 0.525 7.0 256 4.35 263 4.46 29 0.573 85
CIN 28 31 0.475 10.0 265 4.50 285 4.83 27 0.602 77
PIT 27 31 0.466 10.5 288 4.96 316 5.45 26 0.606 75
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since my last update, the Reds have gone a tidy 13-8 (0.619)...they'll have to keep very close to this pace to get to 90 wins this season...runs scored and runs allowed per game are both improved, but both still just rank 2nd to last in the division...they did finally pull ahead of the defensively-challenged Pirates.....the Cubs are in the middle of a nine-game winning streak, and lead the division in both runs scored and runs allowed...sure looks like they're the best team in the division.....Pythagoras thinks that both Houston and St. Louis have a better record than they normally would have.....the Brewers are in the middle of a minor surge, but they have a long way to go...

Hitting
Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Dunn Adam 227 21% 23% 18% 0.261 0.251 0.410 0.549 0.298 0.959 1.081 39.5 7.74 21.7
Phillips Brandon 248 7% 16% 17% 0.296 0.282 0.331 0.520 0.238 0.851 0.821 36.3 5.74 14.3
Votto Joey D 198 10% 17% 23% 0.299 0.281 0.354 0.506 0.225 0.860 0.910 29.7 6.09 12.7
Bruce Jay A 37 19% 5% 37% 0.542 0.552 0.649 0.966 0.414 1.615 1.409 12.9 26.07 11.2
Hairston Jerry 118 6% 14% 30% 0.375 0.327 0.372 0.462 0.135 0.834 0.751 19.2 6.62 9.1
Keppinger Jeff S 163 7% 5% 19% 0.326 0.324 0.373 0.446 0.122 0.819 0.789 22.0 5.62 8.4
Encarnacion Edwin 228 9% 17% 12% 0.248 0.239 0.311 0.449 0.210 0.760 0.790 28.3 4.73 7.4
Griffey Jr. Ken 237 12% 14% 17% 0.274 0.255 0.346 0.397 0.142 0.743 0.794 26.1 4.41 5.5
Bako Paul 151 10% 26% 20% 0.319 0.244 0.320 0.400 0.156 0.720 0.746 16.2 4.13 2.6
Freel Ryan 143 6% 13% 20% 0.342 0.298 0.340 0.359 0.061 0.699 0.666 15.1 4.18 2.5
Ross Dave 63 16% 17% 20% 0.300 0.250 0.371 0.346 0.096 0.717 0.783 7.1 4.65 1.8
Phillips Andy A 6 17% 0% 40% 0.200 0.200 0.333 0.200 0.000 0.533 0.976 0.4 2.86 -0.1
Hopper Norris S 30 7% 0% 14% 0.240 0.240 0.321 0.240 0.000 0.561 0.730 2.6 3.29 -0.2
Janish Paul 28 7% 21% 30% 0.350 0.269 0.321 0.269 0.000 0.590 0.692 1.9 2.64 -0.6
Valentin Javier 46 7% 17% 11% 0.286 0.238 0.283 0.310 0.072 0.593 0.562 3.6 2.89 -0.7
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.0
Patterson Corey 156 5% 10% 14% 0.198 0.200 0.240 0.352 0.152 0.592 0.708 13.1 2.89 -2.7
Hatteberg Scott 61 11% 11% 19% 0.191 0.173 0.262 0.231 0.058 0.493 0.701 2.9 1.72 -3.0
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' linear weights total 276, which is 7 more than they've actually scored (after park adjustments).....Thanks to a spectacular second-half of May, Dunn has taken his typical place as the Reds' top offensive player, and by a considerable margin...perhaps even more impressive is Jay Bruce's debut, which has him at 11 runs above replacement in just 37 plate appearances...I'm choosing to believe that he can continue to have a 37% line drive percentage and a 0.500+ BABIP for the rest of the season--he is Jay Bruce, after all.....Phillips continues to hit well and show nice power, despite his OBP issues.....major drop-off from Encarnacion, who had been the Reds' best hitter the last time I checked in...hopefully he can snap out of it soon......PrOPS thinks that Votto and Griffey have hit slightly better than they've shown.....Jerry Hairson has done a heck of a job as a sub at shortstop...expect that 30% line drive rate to drop though, and his BABIP along with it.....Bako finally cooled down.....Finally, Corey Patterson returns to the roster tonight with (the struggling) Freel headed to the DL...it's worth noting that PrOPS thinks that Patterson's been hitting better than Freel this season, though neither have been good...

Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Dunn Adam LF 21.7 -1.9 -1.9 17.9
Phillips Brandon 2B 14.3 3.0 0.3 17.7
Votto Joey D 1B 12.7 6.1 -2.6 16.2
Bruce Jay A CF 11.2 1.4 0.0 12.6
Hairston Jerry SS 9.1 -1.4 0.5 8.2
Bako Paul C 2.6 2.3 2.4 7.3
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 7.4 -1.1 0.3 6.6
Keppinger Jeff S SS 8.4 -3.2 1.2 6.3
Freel Ryan CF 2.5 -1.4 0.2 1.3
Ross Dave C 1.8 -1.9 0.9 0.7
Phillips Andy A 3B -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.3
Hopper Norris S LF -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Castro Juan SS -2.0 1.5 0.1 -0.4
Janish Paul SS -0.6 -1.0 0.2 -1.4
Valentin Javier C -0.7 -1.0 0.3 -1.5
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 5.5 -5.7 -1.9 -2.1
Hatteberg Scott 1B -3.0 0.4 -0.5 -3.2
Patterson Corey CF -2.7 -3.3 0.8 -5.1
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Total fielding numbers for the Reds come in at 7 runs below average, which matches up really well to THT's estimate of 10 plays below average.....Dunn tops the list of valuable Reds position players, thanks to his resurgent bat and better-than-typical performance in the outfield thus far.....Phillips is right behind him, however, and his fielding numbers are finally showing his more typical plus performance at second base.....Votto's fielding continues to be rated highly by zone rating and revised zone rating, despite his recent error problems.....Encarnacion showed a heck of a surge in his fielding over the past three weeks, which helped him maintain some value despite his offensive woes.....Hairston's done remarkably well at short by these numbers, despite playing out of position.....It's June, and Ken Griffey Jr. still rates as a sub-replacement player despite being generally healthy.....Finally, Corey Patterson's defensive numbers took a big hit...those skills had been the only value he'd provided to the team, but he can't even claim that anymore...


Pitching

Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Volquez Edinson 68.0 11.0 4.8 0.4 6% 55% 0.280 1.46 2.85 0.584 21.5 2.84 22.4 19.6
Harang Aaron 88.7 7.9 2.0 1.2 11% 33% 0.313 3.86 3.53 0.772 45.3 4.60 12.0 18.9
Cordero Francisco 25.7 10.9 5.6 0.7 9% 37% 0.211 2.10 3.62 0.552 7.9 2.78 10.1 3.8
Cueto Johnny 68.7 8.1 2.6 1.8 18% 37% 0.278 5.11 4.59 0.798 38.6 5.06 5.7 6.6
Burton Jared 30.7 9.7 2.6 0.9 10% 53% 0.326 2.93 2.99 0.701 14.5 4.26 2.0 5.1
Bray Bill P 15.7 7.5 5.7 0.0 0% 35% 0.319 2.87 3.25 0.696 7.3 4.19 1.2 2.2
Lincoln Mike 25.7 7.0 1.8 1.8 28% 60% 0.263 5.61 4.46 0.764 12.9 4.52 1.0 0.1
Majewski Gary W 1.7 5.3 0.0 0.0 0% 50% 0.250 0.00 1.82 0.400 0.1 0.70 0.8 0.5
Mercker Kent 13.7 3.9 5.3 0.7 7% 40% 0.279 3.29 4.75 0.750 6.6 4.35 0.8 -0.4
Herrera Daniel R. 1.0 18.0 9.0 0.0 N/A 100% 0.000 0.00 2.00 0.250 0.0 0.28 0.5 0.3
Affeldt Jeremy 26.0 10.4 3.8 1.7 30% 56% 0.319 4.15 4.25 0.785 14.8 5.13 -0.8 0.7
Coffey Todd 15.3 2.9 3.5 1.8 26% 55% 0.278 6.46 6.06 0.879 10.4 6.14 -2.2 -2.7
Belisle Matt 29.7 4.2 1.8 1.2 14% 51% 0.364 7.28 4.27 0.914 23.5 7.13 -4.4 3.9
Weathers David 19.7 6.4 5.9 1.8 18% 35% 0.302 4.58 6.13 0.889 15.2 6.96 -4.6 -3.6
Arroyo Bronson 69.0 8.5 3.7 1.4 15% 36% 0.356 5.61 4.32 0.880 49.2 6.41 -4.6 8.6
Fogg Josh 28.3 5.4 3.2 2.2 17% 38% 0.317 9.85 6.02 0.964 24.1 7.67 -8.9 -4.8
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

It really has been remarkable watching Volquez's season thus far.....Harang continues to be the machine we all know and love, especially if you look at this FIP.....Jared Burton finally has his ERA down to where his FIP said it should have been all along.....Now if only the same could be said for Arroyo and Belisle.....impressive debut appearance by Daniel Herrera--always fun to root for the underdog...

The Reds' pitchers' base runs total 292, which is actually 7 more than they've actually allowed....Using that along with the lwts-estimated 276 runs scored projects the Reds to a 0.472 winning percentage--almost an exact match of their actual record. Neat. Let's hope they can continue to improve now that Bruce and Bailey are here.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.