This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.
I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!
NL Central Update
Since my last update, the Reds have gone a tidy 13-8 (0.619)...they'll have to keep very close to this pace to get to 90 wins this season...runs scored and runs allowed per game are both improved, but both still just rank 2nd to last in the division...they did finally pull ahead of the defensively-challenged Pirates.....the Cubs are in the middle of a nine-game winning streak, and lead the division in both runs scored and runs allowed...sure looks like they're the best team in the division.....Pythagoras thinks that both Houston and St. Louis have a better record than they normally would have.....the Brewers are in the middle of a minor surge, but they have a long way to go...
The Reds' linear weights total 276, which is 7 more than they've actually scored (after park adjustments).....Thanks to a spectacular second-half of May, Dunn has taken his typical place as the Reds' top offensive player, and by a considerable margin...perhaps even more impressive is Jay Bruce's debut, which has him at 11 runs above replacement in just 37 plate appearances...I'm choosing to believe that he can continue to have a 37% line drive percentage and a 0.500+ BABIP for the rest of the season--he is Jay Bruce, after all.....Phillips continues to hit well and show nice power, despite his OBP issues.....major drop-off from Encarnacion, who had been the Reds' best hitter the last time I checked in...hopefully he can snap out of it soon......PrOPS thinks that Votto and Griffey have hit slightly better than they've shown.....Jerry Hairson has done a heck of a job as a sub at shortstop...expect that 30% line drive rate to drop though, and his BABIP along with it.....Bako finally cooled down.....Finally, Corey Patterson returns to the roster tonight with (the struggling) Freel headed to the DL...it's worth noting that PrOPS thinks that Patterson's been hitting better than Freel this season, though neither have been good...
Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Total fielding numbers for the Reds come in at 7 runs below average, which matches up really well to THT's estimate of 10 plays below average.....Dunn tops the list of valuable Reds position players, thanks to his resurgent bat and better-than-typical performance in the outfield thus far.....Phillips is right behind him, however, and his fielding numbers are finally showing his more typical plus performance at second base.....Votto's fielding continues to be rated highly by zone rating and revised zone rating, despite his recent error problems.....Encarnacion showed a heck of a surge in his fielding over the past three weeks, which helped him maintain some value despite his offensive woes.....Hairston's done remarkably well at short by these numbers, despite playing out of position.....It's June, and Ken Griffey Jr. still rates as a sub-replacement player despite being generally healthy.....Finally, Corey Patterson's defensive numbers took a big hit...those skills had been the only value he'd provided to the team, but he can't even claim that anymore...
It really has been remarkable watching Volquez's season thus far.....Harang continues to be the machine we all know and love, especially if you look at this FIP.....Jared Burton finally has his ERA down to where his FIP said it should have been all along.....Now if only the same could be said for Arroyo and Belisle.....impressive debut appearance by Daniel Herrera--always fun to root for the underdog...
The Reds' pitchers' base runs total 292, which is actually 7 more than they've actually allowed....Using that along with the lwts-estimated 276 runs scored projects the Reds to a 0.472 winning percentage--almost an exact match of their actual record. Neat. Let's hope they can continue to improve now that Bruce and Bailey are here.
Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.