Table of Contents

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Total Value Estimates - Through 12 August 2008

I've updated the total value estimates for 2008 players. You can read about all the methods in this series of posts.

Features:

  • Total value estimates for every MLB position player, based on hitting (RAR; Runs Above Replacement level based on linear weights), fielding (Fielding), and their position (PosAdj). Units are runs produced above a replacement player.
  • Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating (ZR) and revised zone rating (RZR).
  • Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitching stat estimating runs saved above repalcement).
  • League differences are taken into account. So are park differences.
  • Closers get a leverage-based bonus in value (though it's pretty rough).

Note: I've heard occasional reports of people getting server errors trying to access this spreadsheet. If you do, please let me know, because I haven't been able to replicate it and want to know how widespread the issue is.

A huge thanks to Joel Luckhaupt, who used his visual basic wizardly to automate the population of my makeshift spreadsheets. Thanks also to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data.


Current MVP Leaders:
American League
Last First Lg Team Pos PA OPS R/G RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Sizemore Grady AL CLE CF 537 0.901 7.5 50.3 9.8 2.7 62.8
Rodriguez Alex AL NYA 3B 430 0.998 8.5 48.9 -1.2 0.6 48.3
Roberts Brian AL BAL 2B 527 0.855 6.8 41.1 3.6 0.7 45.4
Hamilton Josh H AL TEX CF 529 0.923 6.8 42.1 -1.9 0.5 40.7
Longoria Evan AL TB 3B 435 0.885 6.6 32.7 6.1 0.7 39.5
Markakis Nick AL BAL RF 527 0.898 7.2 44.5 -0.8 -4.3 39.4
Kinsler Ian M AL TEX 2B 561 0.890 6.8 44.1 -7.1 0.7 37.8
Granderson Curtis AL DET CF 431 0.859 6.6 32.3 2.6 2.3 37.2
Youkilis Kevin E AL BOS 1B 471 0.948 7.1 39.8 2.3 -5.0 37.1
Pedroia Dustin L AL BOS 2B 540 0.821 5.7 29.5 5.7 0.7 35.9

Sizemore continues to run away with it. Lots of PA's hitting leadoff, the best R/G of anyone not named A-Rod, and outstanding fielding performance at a premium position. If the gap remains this big by the end of the season, I don't see how he can't be the hands-down choice for MVP--even on a losing ballclub.

National League
Last First Lg Team Pos PA OPS R/G RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Pujols Albert NL STL 1B 471 1.066 9.9 60.1 13.3 -5.5 67.9
Jones Chipper NL ATL 3B 394 1.066 10.1 51.1 12.8 0.5 64.4
Utley Chase NL PHI 2B 520 0.944 7.2 43.5 19.1 0.6 63.2
Berkman Lance NL HOU 1B 497 1.035 9.2 58.9 9.9 -6.0 62.8
Holliday Matt T NL COL LF 467 1.027 8.7 49.7 7.0 -3.8 52.8
Ramirez Hanley NL FLA SS 541 0.913 7.6 48.5 -0.4 4.2 52.3
Beltran Carlos NL NYN CF 518 0.835 6.3 32.3 10.7 2.8 45.9
Wright David A NL NYN 3B 544 0.909 7.2 43.9 1.1 0.7 45.7
McCann Brian M NL ATL C 423 0.942 7.5 37.0 0.0 6.0 43.0
Braun Ryan J NL MIL LF 498 0.926 6.8 38.4 6.1 -4.1 40.4
This is the first update I can remember where Chipper Jones isn't at the top of the list. Two lost weeks hurt him.

Current Cy Young Leaders
American League
Last First Lg Team IP ERA FIP OPSa BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Halladay Roy AL TOR 182.0 2.72 2.92 0.623 3.06 58.9 54.6
Lee Cliff AL CLE 161.7 2.45 2.51 0.612 2.97 54.0 55.8
Duchscherer Justin AL OAK 132.7 2.51 3.62 0.579 2.78 47.0 29.5
Danks John W AL CHA 144.3 3.18 3.10 0.650 3.33 42.4 40.4
Santana Ervin R AL LAA 156.3 3.45 3.40 0.644 3.54 42.1 38.6
Guthrie Jeremy AL BAL 163.0 3.26 4.13 0.662 3.68 41.4 26.9
Saunders Joe AL LAA 152.7 3.07 4.50 0.666 3.60 40.2 19.0
Lester Jon T AL BOS 153.3 3.23 3.66 0.693 3.69 38.8 33.4
Wakefield Tim AL BOS 147.0 3.67 4.79 0.668 3.60 38.6 13.5
Beckett Josh AL BOS 147.0 3.92 3.30 0.691 3.73 36.6 37.9
Roy Holliday is a machine. I still don't believe in Cliff Lee.


National League
Last First Lg Team IP ERA FIP OPSa BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Webb Brandon NL ARI 169.0 2.88 2.88 0.609 2.86 53.9 47.0
Haren Dan NL ARI 159.0 3.00 2.79 0.612 2.89 50.2 45.9
Dempster Ryan NL CHN 157.3 2.92 3.46 0.607 3.04 47.1 33.7
Hamels Cole NL PHI 173.7 3.32 3.59 0.653 3.38 45.4 34.7
Lincecum Tim NL SF 162.0 2.67 2.80 0.628 3.22 45.3 46.7
Sheets Ben NL MIL 155.3 2.95 3.13 0.672 3.58 37.3 38.9
Cook Aaron NL COL 172.0 3.87 3.75 0.732 3.80 37.1 31.3
Hudson Tim NL ATL 142.0 3.17 3.79 0.657 3.45 36.2 25.2
Zambrano Carlos NL CHN 151.0 3.22 3.90 0.674 3.61 35.7 24.9
Santana Johan NL NYN 168.0 2.89 3.93 0.674 3.83 35.5 27.2
It's a shame to see Volquez fall off this list, but I like that the Reds are giving him a bit more rest of late. Where would the D-backs be this year without that Dan Haren trade?