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Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Keppinger traded for PTBNL

Per John Fay.

What does this do to the team? To try to figure this out, I again used CHONE projections and my playing time allocations from the 5 questions study.

Keppinger previously received 294 PA's with a strong offensive projection. I was already allocating playing time to Rosales, Richar, and Janish, so I had a hard time figuring out who to replace Keppinger with on my roster (Valaika? Gil came to mind, but he's apparently a pitcher now). So instead of moving up a new player, I increased Jerry Hairston's PA's to the maximum allowed by his CHONE projection (about a 90-PA boost, assuming he'd play more shortstop now), and then split the rest of Kepp's PA's evenly between Rosales, Richar, and Janish.

What was the effect of this? Overall team offense projections declined to from 25 runs above average to 20 runs above average. And overall team fielding projections improved from 9 runs below average to 7 runs below average. So, the net effect of this move on the team is probably negligible, and certainly within the margin of error in my estimates here.

I'll be sorry to see Keppinger go, as he was a nice player to have on the roster. Good contact hitter, good plate discipline, and with a history that includes good gap power. Apparently, though, the Reds weren't convinced he'd rebound this year. Maybe there's scouting to back that up. He definitely is a player that needs to hit to have much value.