Reds Prospects Making Headlines

Here we are at the season midpoint. I'm working on a look back on the first half, but I wanted to take a bit to talk about the Reds minor leagues because things are finally looking up in the Reds farm system. First, do you know who the Reds' top prospects are? Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto get all the press these days, but who else do we have? A good start is to read Doug Gray's top-10 prospect list, which includes both stats and insightful analysis for each player. Well worth the read, as is just about everything he posts on his site. Here's an excerpt:

5. Johnny Cueto - RHP - 20 years old
Johnny Cueto was a relative unknown prospect coming into this season. In Baseball Americas top 30 preseason rankings, he was nowhere to be seen. The Dominican product burst onto the season by dominating the Midwest League the first few months of the season. Cueto fired a no-hitter earlier in the season and has since gotten a promotion to Advanced A Sarasota. His first three outings have been from horrible to bad, but each start has gotten better and I am not to worried about Johnny adjusting and adapting to his new competition.

There was a similar thread over at minorleagueball.com recently asking for top-10 team prospect lists. Here are a few alternatives that posters there provided (see the link to read comments/justifications:

Havok1517's top-10:
1. Bailey
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Wood
5. Stubbs
6. Ward
7. Szymanski
8. Shafer
9. Guevara
10. Perez

IndyRedsFan's top-10:
1. Bailey, A
2. Bruce, A-
3. Votto, B+
4. Wood, B
5. Cueto, B
6. Dumatrait, B-
7. Denorfia, B-
8. Ward, C+
9. LeClure, C+
10. Stubbs, C+

I think the point here is that people can generally agree on the top 4 or 5 prospects in our system, but once you get into the 7-8-9 range you start to see new names. For the record, I think IndyRedsFan's list looks pretty on the mark.

And now, I wanted to run down a smattering of prospect news from the past week or so among the general baseball sites I frequent. Some (though not all) of it has been posted elsewhere, but I like to have it here too -- if for no other reason than so I can search for it later. :)

Baseball Analysts' top-75 prospects included three Reds, and I'll be you can name them:

10. Homer Bailey, sp: Reds (AA)
Bailey was not an oversight in my listing of the top pitching prospects weeks ago, I told someone after that article that Bailey wouldn't rank high for me until he showed "consistent dominance." So, upon promotion, Bailey decided to go off, and currently has a 17 inning scoreless streak going at Double-A. He has earned his status as the game's 1A pitching prospect, especially after a dominating performance in Sunday's Futures Game.

11. Jay Bruce, of: Reds (A-)
Earlier in the season, I did a study on teenage hitters in the Midwest League. Needless to say, the list of success stories was a short one; the expectation level for this group is (as a result) low. The type of season that Jay Bruce is having so far is unprecedented. Bruce is hitting for power at rates that even Prince Fielder did not at such an age. And he's doing so with a decent-enough strikeout rate. On the shortlist of people that wouldn't surprise me to be atop this list in a year.
...
56. Joey Votto, 1b: Reds (AA)
I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

The most exciting thing about this list is that two of the three are in the high minors...

Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein has been talking about Bruce both Votto:

Jay Bruce, of, Low Class A Dayton (Reds)

With the 10th, 11th and 12th picks of the 2005 draft, the Tigers, Pirates and Reds all took high school outfielders. Both Detroit's Cameron Maybin and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen have been impressive in their full-season debuts, but Bruce has been the best of the trio. Bruce went 5-for-10 over the weekend with a double and his 13th home run of the season, raising his batting line to .320/.386/.575 (including a .416 batting average in his last 30 games). There's so much to like about Bruce: from his pro body to his pretty left-handed swing that has sent exactly half of his 104 hits for extra bases, to his plus arm and the requisite athleticism to hold his own in centerfield for now. The Reds system is still wading-pool shallow, but few organizations can match the elite-pitcher/elite-hitter combination of Homer Bailey and Bruce.

He ranks Votto as the #3 1B prospect in the majors:

3. Joey Votto, Reds
Age: 22.8 Hitting: .322/.396/.579 in 84 G (AA)

What a difference a year makes. Votto put himself on the map in 2004 when he hit .302/.419/.486 for Low Class A Dayton and then put up a .945 OPS in 24 Carolina games. Last year, he almost took himself off the map with a rough year in the Florida State League, where he got off to a bad start and then tinkered with his mechanics, losing both timing and fluidity in his stroke. The Reds worked with him in the offseason on shortening his swing and improving his approach against lefthanders. The results have been phenomenal, as Votto leads the Southern League in batting and home runs (17), while sitting just two behind Jacksonville's Craig Brazell for the RBI lead. Drafted as a catcher, Votto has good hands at first base but isn't especially athletic. If the offensive outburst continues, Votto could be in line for a look in 2007--while Scott Hatteberg is having a nice season, he doesn't represent any kind of major roadblock.

Chris Costansio of the Hardball Times rates Votto as the biggest surprise in the Southern League:

Joey Votto has had an up-and-down career in the Reds system. This is a good year for him; he is on pace to hit over 30 home runs with a .400 OBP. Only one player, Josh Phelps, has finished with comparable numbers in the Southern League during the past five years. Chattanooga is a hitter-friendly place to play, but Votto has actually hit 13 of his 19 home runs on the road in the Southern League.

I got a chance to see both Bailey and Votto in the Future's game last Sunday. Bailey looked good until he cut his finger--after that point he didn't seem willing to throw anything but a fastball, and his velocity and location were all over the place. But he was absolutely filthy during his first two batters. Really, really exciting to watch.

Votto also looked very good, though it's hard to judge a guy by two at-bats. Still, one thing I noticed that was fun: when he sets his stance, Votto glides back and downward ever so slightly in a smooth and very controlled motion. Reminds me of a left-handed version of another power-hitting first baseman, though his name escapes me. I think he plays for the Cardinals... :)

Is Jason LaRue just the victim of bad luck?

I was looking at some numbers in anticipation of a mid-season review of the Reds and noticed something really interesting about Jason LaRue. Jason's struggles have been well documented, most recently on this blog in my June 2006 Review. Through 114 at-bats, here are LaRue's numbers: 0.184 batting average, 0.293 on-base percentage, and a 0.307 slugging percentage, which makes for an even 0.600 On Base + Slugging Percentage (OPS). Pretty terrible season for him thus far, right?

Well, maybe he hasn't been swinging that badly. First, let's look at some of the graphs over at fangraphs.com. Compared to last year (and the year before for that matter), his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down this year. But even more interesting is this graph of LaRue's balls hit into play:
Compare his ground-ball, line-drive, and fly-ball percentage from this year to last year. There's almost no difference. LaRue's batted-ball types are almost identical to his solid 2005 season. Typically, when a player suffers from a dramatic slump or loss in ability, you'll see a substantial change in these numbers. In this case, nothing about what he does with the bat seems to be different. He's hitting balls the same way, he's walking at the same rate, and he's striking out at the same rate. The difference appears to be the outcome--he's just not "hitting them were they ain't."

Using PrOPS

Another way of looking at these same sorts of data is to use J.C. Bradbury's PrOPS statistic. It's my new favorite stat for offense. It's similar to defense-independent pitching stats in that it attempts to separate what the batter does with the bat itself from the fielding & luck (good and bad) with which he has to contend. What it effectively does is take the raw batting outcomes -- % walks, %strikeouts, %flyballs, %groundballs, and %line drives -- of a hitter and estimate what his OPS should be with an average amount of luck. Bradbury's work has shown that this approach has strong predictive power, and explaining roughly 80% of variation in OPS. Furthermore, individuals that perform well below or above their PrOPS one year tend to perform much closer to it the next year--just what you'd expect if this stat helping you decipher lucky performances from legitimate performances. So what does it say about Jason LaRue?

Right now, PrOPS says that LaRue's OPS should be about 0.846--compare that to his actual OPS of 0.600! That difference (0.846-0.600=0.246) is the largest difference between OPS and PrOPS among all active major league baseball players with at least LaRue's number of plate appearances this season. It's staggering. And it suggests that LaRue has been very solid at the plate despite the bad outcomes of his batted balls (his BABIP is a miserable 0.207).

Now my first thought when I saw this was that perhaps PrOPS, a fairly new statistic, just doesn't work well on Jason LaRue. But this doesn't appear to be the case. His 2005 PrOPS was 0.838, which is pretty close to his actual OPS of 0.805. Similarly, LaRue's 2004 PrOPS was 0.790, which again is pretty close to his actual 2004 OPS of 0.765. Therefore, at least in the past, LaRue has been quite predictable by the PrOPS method. So I think this conclusion--that LaRue has hit the ball far better than his traditional stats say he has this year--is pretty well supported.

The problem I have is that, living in Arizona, I don't get to see very many games. Of those I've seen in which LaRue has played, I don't recall him looking all that lost at the plate--even as he went 0-4. But I'd be very interested to hear if you folks who watch far more games than I do have seen something consistent with this view of LaRue. Has he been hitting a lot of hard hit balls right at infielders and outfielders? My guess is that if someone were to go back through all the games, they'd see that this has happened quite a lot this year compared to last year.

Other quick PrOPS (just 'cause I love this stuff)

If you're curious, other unlucky Reds according to PrOPS include Adam Dunn (0.923 OPS vs. 1.066 PrOPS), Javier Valentin (0.601 OPS vs. 0.731 PrOPS), and Ken Griffey Jr (0.828 OPS vs. 0.908 PrOPS). Happily, the only Reds who appear to have been particularly fortunate in their performance are Chris Denorfia (1.306 OPS vs. 0.651 PrOPS) and Ray Olmedo (0.826 OPS vs. 0.646 PrOPS), and neither has more than a handful of at-bats. Encouragingly, breakout players like Dave Ross (1.065 OPS vs. 1.042 PrOPS) and Brandon Phillips (0.817 OPS vs. 0.814 PrOPS) look to have improved their actual hitting, and haven't just been lucky!

Who's the second hardest-luck guy in baseball behind Jason LaRue? Barry Bonds, who currently has a very good 0.975 OPS and a terrifying 1.215 PrOPS. What happens if he starts to get lucky in the second half? Yikes.

Lucky players on other teams around the majors include Gary Matthews Jr. (0.914 OPS vs. 0.783 PrOPS), Joe Mauer (1.008 OPS vs. 0.879 PrOPS), Matt Holliday (0.973 OPS vs. 0.849 PrOPS), and Freddy Sanchez (0.931 OPS vs. 0.825 PrOPS).

The top seven (qualified) hitters in baseball this season, according to PrOPS: Albert Pujols (1.196 PrOPS), Travis Hafner (1.143 PrOPS), Jason Giambi (1.127 PrOPS), Jim Thome (1.114 PrOPS), Manny Ramirez (1.103 PrOPS), David Ortiz (1.076 PrOPS), and... our man, Adam Dunn (1.066 PrOPS).

Reflections: Braves survive Reds 8-7 in 10 innings

Game was on TBS last night, as are Saturday and Sunday's games. So I can actually present an informed opinion of some games! :) And like JD, I'm pretty pleased with the Reds' performance last night, all things considered. My thoughts:

• Joe Mays was throwing batting practice for the first four hitters. He was missing all of his spots, typically grooving pitches for the Braves' hitters. He did settle in fairly well, but those three walks are not a good sign. It did enjoy how home plate umpire Marvin Hudson verging on popping a blood vessel when he was waiting for Mays to get back from the clubhouse in the top of the fifth.
• Standridge looked awful. I know he got a K, but he was able to spot a pitch about once per at-bat. Other than that, he didn't seem to have a clue where the ball was going. The only reason he wasn't killed out there was that he never happened to miss into the strike zone, it was always way high, way low, way inside, etc..
• Belisle and Mercker looked pretty solid tonight. Isn't it strange how you can get excited about a reliever when he manages not to allow a run these days? Kinda sad... But they both looked competant out there.
• Encarnacion's error was a pretty tough-luck call. Yeah, he threw it wide, but Hatteberg absolutely kept his foot on the bag. Even the Braves' announcers agreed on that point. Sucky call by first base umpire Ed Montague.
  
• Great to see the Latin Love Machine back in the swing of things. 'Course, last time I said that was the last time he hit a pinch-hit homer back on May 28th. Hopefully he can build on this one better than he built on the last one...
• David Ross continues to be a stud in the clutch. What a season he's having...
• Tough to see Coffey get the loss tonight, as he seemed to be pitching pretty well as his two strikeouts supports. I was a bit surprised to see them pitch to Andruw Jones and then walk Brain McCann, but I guess Narron was playing platoons. Even so, I'm all for pitching to swing-at-anything Jeff Francoeur. Just didn't work out.
  

Reds Acquire Eddie Guardado

In an effort to get some help for the Reds' miserable bullpen, the Wayne Krivsky traded one of their few legitimate starting pitching prospects, 22-year old Travis Chick, for lefty reliever Eddie Guardado of the Seattle Mariners. Guardado, 35, has been a major league closer for most of the last 5 seasons, but fell on hard times in April of this year and lost his job to the younger J. J. Putz. Here are Guardado's recent stats:

Year/Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/MIN	65.3	8.3	1.9	0.96	0.240	2.89	3.40	3.52	22.30	0.34
2004/SEA	45.3	8.9	2.8	1.59	0.213	2.78	4.50	4.30	17.30	0.33
2005/SEA	56.3	7.7	2.4	1.12	0.268	2.72	3.91	3.99	12.70	0.35
2006/SEA	23.0	8.6	4.3	3.13	0.313	5.48	7.24	---	1.30	---

From '03 to '05, Guardado was a solid and dependable reliever. He struck men out at an rate well above average while exhibiting excellent control. He did tend to give up his share of home runs (see especially 2004), but was able to remain effective thanks to his other peripherals. Guardado did have three consecutive years with BABIP's well below average, which does indicate he was somewhat lucky to be posting those sub-3 ERA's. Nevertheless, a glance at his FIP and PERA shows that he would still be a solid reliever with a more typical BABIP. The one real alarm that I see here is that he is very much a fly ball pitcher, inducing ground balls only ~33% of the time. That might be trouble in GABP.

The more immediately concerning item, however, is his 2006 performance. Guardado has been absolutely lit up this year. While his strikeouts remain quite good, his control has been horrible (4.3 bb/9), and he's given up home runs at an insane rate thus far (3.13 hr/9!). Even so, there are hopeful signs. His ERA in April was a Chris Hammond-esque 8.31, but his May and June ERAs improved to 2.25 and 4.50, respectively. Seven of his 11 walks on the season occurred in April, so it looks like he's solved his early control problems. Unfortunately, his HR-rate has been constant, giving up 3 in April, 2 in May, and 3 again in June. I will say that I'm more encouraged about the reduction in his walks than I am concerned about the HR-rate...

But what can we expect from him? Well, his PECOTA line predicted a solid season for Guardado (3.54 ERA, 9.0 VORP in 45.7 innings), and I think it's reasonable to expect--or at least hope--that he'll throw about that well in the second half. If he can, that'd be huge for the Reds. It won't solve their bullpen problems, but it certainly would improve matters. If he can be as effective as he has been the last three years, he might allow Jerry Narron to alternate between Coffey or Guardado in the 9th depending on the opposing lineup. This could really ease the burden on Coffey as he gets more acclimated to the closer role. Overall, I think this move should help us this season. Hopefully this is the first in a series of three or so moves to bring in some arms and sure up this pen.

Update: Marc says that Guardado will move into the closer role, with Coffey going back to the shut 'em down setup role. I'm fine with this, at least for starters. Coffey clearly was more comfortable in that role, and Guardado has long experience in the closer role. The only time I"ll object is if the #3-5 hitters of an opposing team happen to be all left-handers, and all hit back-to-back in the 8th inning. It sure will be nice to know we'll have a chance to see Coffey prior to the 9th inning from this point on...

I did want to take a minute to look at what we lost in Travis Chick. Chick was the main guy in the Joe Randa deal last July, and came here along with AAA-starter Justin Germano. Here are Chick's recent numbers:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/FLO-A-	52.0	8.3	4.5	0.52	0.357	5.71	3.60	6.53	-12.2	--
2004/FLO-A	91.1	11.1	2.7	1.09	0.297	4.04	3.20	5.61	-1.1	--
2004/SD-A	42.1	11.8	1.9	0.86	0.282	2.13	2.46	5.31	5.3	---
2005/SD-AA	97.1	8.5	3.7	1.11	0.323	5.27	4.15	6.20	-12.3	39%
2005/CIN-AA	46.1	4.1	5.3	0.98	0.264	4.86	5.46	7.11	-0.4	40%
2006/CIN-AA	84.0	8.3	3.9	1.29	0.277	4.61	4.51	---	---	---

Chick's time in the minor leagues has shown him to be a guy who can get good strikeout numbers, but also a guy who has trouble with his control. Thus far, his 2006 campaign looks very similar to his '05 campaign, both at the AA-level. I had hoped to see a bit more improvement from him this year. Nevertheless, he's only 22, he's talented, and still has time to put it together. He may turn out to be a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher in the next few years, or he also might never get past AAA. Still, I have a hunch that we may have given something up here in Chick, so let's all hope that Guardado is worth it. If he helps the Reds get to the playoffs this year, he will be.

Other moves today include:

• Brain Shackelford optioned to Louisville following his arrest by Milwaukee police on sexual assault charges. Let's hope that is a mistake. He was replaced by Mike Gosling.
• Designated Quinton McCracken for assignment. They recalled DeWayne Wise to replace him. More on Wise later, though I'm not overly enamored with him.
• Activated Edwin Encarnacion from the disabled list. To make room, Elizardo Ramirez was optioned to Louisville. Given that this comes on the heels of yet another quality start by our young starter, I am positive this is just a way to get EZ a start over the all-star break, and that we'll see him on the mound on the third or fourth day post break.
• As to who Guardado will replace, the easiest person to send back down would be Gosling.
  

June 2006 in Review

Year-to-Date Stats
Overall Record: 44-36 (Tied for first in NL, 8 games over 0.500)
Series Record: 13-3-10
Pythagorean Record: 40-40
Extrapolated Record: 89-73
Record if win half of remaining games: 85-77
Runs Scored: 403 (5.0/g, 3rd in NL)
Runs Allowed: 401 (5.0/g, Tied-8th in NL)

May Team Stats
May Record: 15-12
May Series Record: 4-1-3
May Pythagorean Record: 14-13
May Runs Scored: 140 (5.2/g)
May Runs Allowed: 135 (5.0/g)

What a bizarre month. The Reds began the month with a brilliant 8-game winning streak against Houston, St. Louis, and the Cubs, but then proceeded to drop 10 of their next 11 at the hands of the Cubs, Brewers, and White Sox. The rest of the month was roughly 0.500 ball, though the Reds did finish with a nice 3-game winning streak vs. the Royals and the Cleveland Indians. The end result was a month in which the Reds won three more games than they lost, which was a nice improvement over their losing May. Even better, the Cardinals had a sub-0.500 month thanks to the absence of King Albert. This permitted the Reds to make up the 5 games they were back at the beginning of the month and end June in a dead heat with the Redbirds!

Much of the Reds success has to be attributed to the reawakening of the offense. While still a far cry from April's production, the Reds offense improved over a full run per game over May to 5.2 runs per game. Meanwhile, the pitching--thanks entirely to the starters--was able to stay relatively constant for the year at 5.0 runs allowed per game. From a distance, the Reds look to be in great shape to move on and win the division, or at least the wild card. However, there's a lot of reason for concern as well. While the front three starters -- Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, and Elizardo Ramirez -- continued their effectiveness, Eric Milton seemed to be returning to his 2005 form, and Brandon Claussen was pummeled severely.

Even more problematic, the bullpen had a disastrous month. All members of the bullpen--Coffey, Weathers, Hammond, Mercker, Rick White, and Estaban Yan--were roughed up, often badly. A team cannot contend for a playoff spot without some semblance of the bullpen, so something is going to have to be done. To this end, general manager Wayne Krivsky has already eliminated White and Hammond, and at this point all bullpen spots except perhaps the closer are up for grabs. While some help may come from the minor leagues, our best hope seems to be via trade. Jason LaRue would seem to be our most disposable part, but his value is down due to a year-long slump. It's a difficult situation that will test our rookie general manager as the trading deadline approaches.

Nevertheless, for a team that was almost universally selected to finish in last place when the season started, the Reds are in remarkably good shape. With a few arms in the bullpen and some continued good performances from our starters, the Reds can remain in the hunt until season's end. It's been a great year to be a Reds fan. Let's hope they can keep it up.

Statistical Hitter of the Month: Ryan Freel - 0.364 AVG, 0.410 OBP, 0.584 SLG, 7/7 Steals, 11.7 VORP in June
Honorable Mentions: Dave Ross, Brandon Phillips

Despite still not having an everyday starting job, Ryan Freel exploded in June whenever he was in the lineup. Freel always seems to get in base. But this month he not only was able to generate an OBP over 0.400, he was able to hit with authority as well, slugging 11 extra-base hits in route to a 0.584 slugging percentage. Furthermore, he continued to be a threat on the base-paths, stealing a perfect 7 bases in 7 attempts to push his total on the season to 18 (82% success rate). Among Freel's most impressive games was his game vs. Cleveland on June 23rd, in which he went 5 for 5 with two doubles and two stolen bases, scoring 2 runs in the Reds' 3-0 victory. It was great to see Freel find his stroke this month. Making only $1,300,000 and able to play five positions extremely well, Freel continues to be among the most valuable and underrated players in baseball.

Impact Hitter of the Month: Adam Dunn - 9 HR's, 19 Runs, 20 RBI's, 113.2% Win Probability Added in May
Honorable Mentions: Dave Ross, Ryan Freel

Adam Dunn still hasn't gotten his bat going at the level he's proven to be capable of in previous years, but he's been pretty effective when it counts this month. His best-timed swing of the year--and possibly of his career--came on June 30th. The Reds were entertaining the Cleveland Indians in the first of a three-game series. The game had not gone well. Elizardo Ramirez gave up five quick runs in the first, and even though he recovered to pitch reasonably well through five innings, the Reds were down 6 runs when he exited. The Indians tacked another on in the top of the eighth, but the Reds came back for four runs in the eighth. The Reds managed to score another run to start the 9th inning, and then Adam Dunn came to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. He proceeded to hit a 1-0 pitch hard to right for an Ultimate Grand Slam to win the game. When asked about where that one ranked in his career, Dunn replied "I hit one in Little League that was pretty cool. This is probably second." At least he's keeping things in perspective.

Dunn had other great games in June. The day before, he hit an 8th inning double to bring home the winning run vs. the Royals. And on June 14th, Dunn hit an 11th inning three run shot to beat the Brewers. But Reds fans will remember the grand slam for years to come.

Statistical Pitcher of the Month: Aaron Harang, 2.97 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 7.8 k/9, 0.69 hr/9, 14.6 VORP
Honorable Mentions: Bronson Arroyo, Elizardo Ramirez

Harang continues to quietly have an excellent year. His strikeouts are still up compared to last year, which has resulted in him being over more dominant--and demonstrably legitimate. Harang currently leads the league in road ERA (1.57) and is third in the league in K/100P. While Arroyo has been the one in the spotlight, Harang has been just as reliable -- and looking back on our expectations at the beginning of the year, more comfortably in line with what we could reasonably expect from him. Harang had 6 starts in June, of which he won 4. His best was a complete-game shutout against the Cleveland Indians on June 23rd, the same game in which Freel went 5 for 5. It was Harang's second complete-game shutout of the year.

Impact Pitcher of the Month: Bronson Arroyo, 5 quality starts, 3 wins, 2.57 ERA, 88.4% Win Probability Added
Honorable Mentions: Aaron Harang, Elizardo Ramirez

Krivsky's prize acquisition continued his torrid first half with more of the same, keeping the opponents' bats silent and giving the Reds a solid chance to win. He was a model of consistency this month. Arroyo's best game was a 2-run complete game against the Mets on June 19th, though he only surrendered more than three runs one time in June and *never* threw fewer than six innings. The hallmark of Arroyo's run has been his outstanding control. Nevertheless, his strikeouts continue to pour in at a rate similar to his solid 2004 campaign and substantially higher than his more mediocre 2005 performance.

Unfortunately, there may be some signs that Arroyo is starting to slip a little bit. While his ERA was an outstanding 2.57 for the month, this FIP shot up to 3.96. That, coupled with a low BABIP (0.262) indicated that he was somewhat lucky to be as dominant as he was this month. The primary difference between this month and his May numbers was his unusually low 0.43 HR/9 allowed in May. Nevertheless, his numbers remain solid, his FIP remains below 4.00, and he continues to be the stopper of our rotation. I see no reason to expect complete catastrophe here--just a regression away from Cy Young candidate and toward a solid, dependable starting pitcher. I can live with that.

Other June Notes:

• Dave Ross had an amazing month, taking over the starting catcher role for the team. In a way it's by default, as the other Reds catchers aren't hitting (see below). But even if they were, it'd be hard to keep him out of the lineup. Ross hit an amazing 0.316/0.397/0.684 on the month, slugging 6 home runs and driving home 14 in only 57 at bats. These efforts earned him my vote for NL All-Star catcher, despite him only possessing the starting role for one month of the season. I won't pretend to expect this sort of production out of him for the rest of the season, but he's proven to be a capable offensive threat.
  
• Elizardo Ramirez continues to impress. This month, he managed a 4.10 ERA and a 3.74 FIP, and continues to post solid strikeout and HR-allowed rates, as well as excellent control. I'm very excited that he's a part of our rotation--if only he was still eligible for the rookie of the year competition. He might not win, but he'd get more attention.
  
• Todd Coffey's transition to the closer role has been rather shaky (5.84 ERA, 6.29 FIP in June). His strikeout rate is WAY down (2.2 k/9??), his walk rate way up, and he's allowing home runs at a frequent rate for the first time this season. I still think he's a legitimate candidate for a closer role, but he's going to have to get things back into gear or we're going to have to look elsewhere...or at least we would if someone else in the bullpen were capable of getting hitters out, which unfortunately is not the case.
• Other members of the bullpen have been similarly horrible. Perhaps most disappointing was David Weather's month (10.80 ERA, 9.10 FIP), as we were really counting on him to be the stabilizing guy in the pen--and for much of the year, he had been. Weathers left the game on Sunday, June 11th, when "severe tendinitis" in his shoulder flared up. He ended up missing 5 days, and clearly hasn't been the same since. His ERA went from 3.48 (where it had been for a while) to 4.35 with his outing on the 11th, and steadily rose to 5.40 by the month's end. I have to think that his shoulder problems are more severe than he and the Reds have been letting on, as it was too obvious of a turning point in his season to be unrelated. It's time to move him to the disabled list, let him heal, and hopefully allow him to come back and pitch effectively before season's end. I don't know who will replace him, but surely we can expect more from our setup man than a 10.80 ERA.
  
• Jason LaRue (0.472 OPS in June, 0.596 OPS overall) and Javier Valentin (0.391 OPS in June, 0.566 OPS overall) still aren't hitting. Both took steps backward in June. It's downright weird at this point, especially in LaRue's case, as these two are solid major league hitters. And it's extremely disappointing from a player-management standpoint, because LaRue should be the most tradeable commodity on the team. We can replace him on our roster because of our logjam of catchers, he has a proven track record, and while he has a multi-year contract, he's not so expensive that a contending team wouldn't be willing to add him if they had the need of a solid catcher. We need him to get hot -- fast -- so we can try to deal him for bullpen help.
  
• Brandon Claussen had a horrific month as well, and eventually was placed on the disabled list with a sore shoulder. This was probably more a move to get him off the active roster than anything else, but hopefully he can rediscover something in his rehabilitation assignment that can help him regain the effectiveness he showed last season. We were really counting on him to be a quality starter this year, and he hasn't been able to deliver. At this point, the #5 slot in our rotation is a huge black hole. I see little reason to think that Joe Mays can improve matters there, and if we're going to contend we can't just give up on every 5th game before it starts.

Reds June Hitting Stats:

Player	PA	PA/K	PA/BB	PA/HR	SB/%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	VORP	WPA%
Freel	82	4.3	16.4	27.3	7/100%	0.410	0.584	0.994	0.331	11.7	77.9%
Phillips	107	7.6	11.9	35.7	5/100%	0.391	0.480	0.871	0.296	11.5	46.2%
Ross	66	3.7	7.3	11.0	0/0%	0.397	0.684	1.081	0.350	9.3	78.3%
Griffey Jr.	109	7.8	12.1	12.1	0/0%	0.327	0.580	0.907	0.292	7.7	17.0%
Hatteberg	98	49.0	7.5	32.7	0/0%	0.406	0.494	0.900	0.306	5.8	-3.0%
Dunn	117	3.7	5.3	13.0	0/0%	0.368	0.537	0.905	0.300	5.6	113.2%
Lopez	119	5.2	7.4	29.8	6/75%	0.350	0.437	0.787	0.267	5.3	2.9%
Encarnacion	14	2.8	---	---	0/0%	0.375	0.643	1.018	0.330	2.6	5.1%
Kearns	102	4.4	11.3	25.5	4/100%	0.330	0.441	0.771	0.259	2.2	-3.6%
Aurilia	89	8.1	17.8	22.3	0/0%	0.300	0.488	0.788	0.257	1.9	-40.0%
Olmedo	8	---	8.0	---	1/100%	0.375	0.571	0.946	0.312	1.1	9.2%
McCracken	12	6.0	---	---	0/0%	0.250	0.417	0.667	0.217	-0.1	-7.5%
LaRue	26	6.5	26.0	26.0	0/0%	0.192	0.280	0.472	0.156	-2.7	-7.9%
Valentin	31	6.2	15.5	---	0/0%	0.219	0.172	0.391	0.142	-3.9	-24.9%
Castro (50 Min)	14	7.0	---	14.0	0/0%	0.286	0.500	0.786	0.254	---	---

Reds June Pitching Stats:

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	VORP	WPA%
Arroyo	42.0	6.4	1.9	1.07	0.262	2.57	3.96	15.6	88.4%
Harang	39.3	7.8	2.5	0.69	0.306	2.97	3.30	14.6	74.7%
Ramirez	37.3	6.0	1.4	0.97	0.263	4.10	3.74	9.0	37.8%
Mays (6 KC)	13.0	6.2	1.4	0.69	0.318	2.08	3.28	4.7	33.3%
Yan (13 LAA)	12.7	5.0	4.3	2.83	0.162	4.26	7.61	2.5	-41.0%
Milton	29.7	4.8	2.1	1.82	0.277	5.46	5.46	1.7	-55.7%
White (3 Phi)	6.0	4.5	3.0	1.50	0.118	4.50	5.37	1.5	-11.6%
Standridge	3.3	10.9	10.9	0.00	0.145	2.70	4.41	1.2	2.4%
Belisle	1.0	18.0	0.0	0.00	0.000	0.00	-0.80	1.1	0.7%
Mercker	8.3	2.2	1.1	2.17	0.208	4.32	6.21	0.8	-5.3%
Coffey	12.3	2.2	4.4	1.46	0.245	5.84	6.29	-0.1	-28.9%
Burns	3.0	3.0	0.0	3.00	0.385	9.00	6.87	-0.8	0.6%
Hammond	12.3	5.1	1.5	2.20	0.349	8.76	5.72	-4.4	-47.0%
Weathers	10.0	3.6	4.5	3.60	0.381	10.80	9.10	-4.7	-48.0%
Claussen	13.7	7.2	5.3	1.31	0.347	9.88	5.24	-5.6	-40.3%

More Hype for Homer

From Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock column:

RHP Homer Bailey, Double-A Chattanooga (Reds)

Commence breakout. The seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft, Bailey had a fantastic but frustrating first half at High-A Sarasota in the Florida State League, alternating between being literally unhittable (with a pair of six-inning, no-hit outings) and pretty bad (allowing four or more runs in six of 13 starts). Pushed to Double-A for the second half despite just turning 20 in May, Bailey has reeled off his best three-start run of the season. Coming off his third six-inning no-hit game of the year last week, Bailey struck out nine over five shutout innings on Sunday, extending his scoreless streak in the Southern League to 17 innings while allowing just seven hits and striking out 22. As we approach the All-Star break, the Reds are not just still in it, they're only one game behind the Cardinals, and their weakness is pitching. I'm just saying...

From a Minor League Ball Diary:

...I've been waiting for this....looks like he just wanted the competition...He had far too much talent to produce such mediocre numbers in A-ball...I normally don't follow pitching "prospects" so closely, but from the moment I saw his scouting video after he was drafted, I was in love...He also has quite the personality, and the name (nickname) to match...for those not checking the boxscore, his line tonight: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 9 K.

I'm inclined to think he'll stay in AA for most of the rest of the season, but he sure is tantilizing... Please just don't get hurt! :)

Now that's clutch hitting

The Win Probability Chart from last night's game is absurd:

Adam Dunn currently has a 0.961 OPS with runners in scoring position and 1.346 OPS late in the game with runners on. That's some serious clutch hitting. So go ahead, Mr. Dunn, you deserve a bit of happiness.