New PECOTA projections are online at BP

Subscribers can access the new '07 PECOTA cards at Baseball Prospectus! PECOTA is, by most accounts (and my experience), the most comprehensive and reliable projection system available. It essentially uses age-adjusted similar players (plus lots of other factors, like ballpark, etc) to project player performance next season, plus other seasons down the road. As with anything like this, you take it with a dash of salt (more than a grain, but still be skeptical). But it's interesting to look at.

Jim Baker ran an article talking about the best rookie prospects for '07, according to PECOTA projections. Joey Votto was listed as the best 1B rookie prospect, with a projected line of 0.284/0.366/0.511 (weighted mean). They project 29 home runs in 630 plate appearances next year!

That's overwhelmingly positive, and frankly I think it's a bit optimistic. Votto rebounded in a big way last year, but he hasn't even played in AAA yet. I think he'd hold his own, but this seems a bit over the top (note: PECOTA also assumes playing time, which is unlikely at least to start the year with Hatteberg *AND* Conine standing in his way). Still, it's nice to hear that he's projecting so well. Similar players to him, by the way, include Carlos Pena, Travis Hafner, Pat Burrell, Hee-Seop Choi, Lance Berkman, Jason Giambi, Kent Hrbek, and Brad Wilkerson. Interesting group.

A few other interesting projections and my comments:

• Homer Bailey: 4.64 ERA in 129 innings, 119 k but 66 bb -- seems reasonable for a 21-year old if he goes AA to MLB this year.
  

• Adam Dunn: 0.267/0.390/0.574 -- nice to see a projected rebound.

• Ken Griffey Jr: 0.275/0.344/0.506 -- PECOTA thinks that he's declining. So do I. But he should still be a productive hitter.

• Kyle Lohse: 4.87 ERA -- Eek. I'm more optimistic about him.

• Bronson Arroyo: 4.40 ERA -- ...Unfortunately, while I'm not quite that pessimistic, that doesn't sound far off to me.

• Chris Denorfia: 0.296/0.365/0.459 -- That also seems quite reasonable. I'm bullish on Chris to have a good year in center field, as long as Narron lets the guy play...which is, of course, not guaranteed.

Transaction Ketchup: Chad Moeller

This is probably one of those transactions that we just shouldn't get worked up about. It shouldn't make much of a difference for the Reds next season, as long as they're being smart. ...

Despite clearing room only days earlier on the 25-man roster by trading away Jason LaRue for peanuts, Wayne Krivsky added 31-year old catcher Chad Moeller to the team via a one-year major league free agent deal.

Moeller had a good pair of years here in hitter-happy Arizona from '02-'03, posting 0.852 and 0.770 OPS's over a total of 344 at bats. But after arriving as part of the Richie Sexson deal for the 2004 season, he hasn't done squat:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	EqA	VORP	PrOPS
2004/MIL	343	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	0	0.0%	0.265	0.303	0.568	0.195	0.200	-15.0	0.634
2005/MIL	214	22.4%	6.1%	3.3%	0	---	0.257	0.367	0.624	0.207	0.220	-4.2	0.699
2006/MIL-AAA	153	18.3%	9.8%	1.3%	0	0.0%	0.307	0.311	0.618	0.216	---	---	---
2006/MIL	104	25.0%	3.8%	1.9%	0	---	0.231	0.276	0.507	0.173	0.000	-8.4	0.707

While PrOPS is slightly kinder to him, there's just no evidence over the past three years that he can hit. What success he did have previously happened in his 27 and 28-year old seasons in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball (Chase Field of Arizona). Since that time, his walk rate has dropped to nothing, as has his batting average.

Defensively, Krivsky has talked up his ability to "handle the game." He does have a lower-than-average catcher ERA for his career (4.03), so perhaps there's something to that--especially since much of his playing time happened in a hitter's park. But his arm, at least, is subpar, catching only 25.5% of would-be base stealers over his career--and declining every single year since 2001, to a low of 21.4% last year.

So why do we have this guy? I have a hard time believing he'll hit any better than Ryan Jorgensen might if he were called up. Maybe he'll be better defensively, I don't know. But I can come up with two somewhat snide possibilities. One, he was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins in the 1996 draft, and debuted with them in 2000. And two, he hit for the cycle against the Reds in 2004 (one of only 13 doubles & 5 homers he hit that year in 317 AB's).

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he lasts the season. The Reds always have roster size issues, and this year will be no different (e.g. we already have too many outfielders already on the roster). He should be an easy guy to cut.

Arrgh, I'm so behind!

For all my complaining that the Reds haven't been doing what they need to do this offseason, I'm miserably behind in my coverage of their transactions. I have a few non-baseball projects in the works right now, and the semester is just getting started, but nonetheless I'm going to try to work in a post investigating some of the newest Reds--or would-be Reds, for that matter--a few times a week moving forward. After all, spring training is already approaching (it's been a short offseason, eh?), and I need to get back up to speed!

To that end, I'm posting something on Chad Moeller tonight. As I said, I'm behind! :)

Thankful.

I'm feeling very thankful tonight. First of all, I'm very thankful for all of you who stop by and read this blog. I'm thankful for my wife and kid, who put up with the lengthy verbal diatribes about baseball that go along with my writing here (neither of them care much for baseball...well, the kid might be starting to show an interest, but I'm just saying that because she put a baseball in her mouth the other day...'course, she puts anything she can get her hands on in her mouth these days). I'm thankful for the Reds baseball team too. Sure, I'm not exactly jazzed about what they've done since oh, July 13th or so. But they had a decent season last year for the first time in a while, and probably won't be awful next year.

But most of all, I'm thankful that I've never put my picture up on this website. Because it might have turned out something like this:
Welcome aboard, Trent! Looking forward to an entertaining season. And for the love of all that is good and holy, get down to your creative department tomorrow and get a new picture taken!

Marc is off to Tampa

Marc Lancaster, the now-former Post's Reds beat reporter, is currently driving down to Tampa Bay for his new job. It seems like it'll be a big step up for Marc, so I'm really happy for him. The team he's going to may be a tough one to cover, but they'll have some exciting prospects in the next few years, one of whom may be the best hitting prospect in baseball.

But we'll miss Marc around here. His blog has consistently been the best source for breaking news and opinion on the Reds since he started it in spring training '05.

The good news is that C. Trent Rosecrans (who I may always pronounce as Rosencrantz, just because) will be taking over. His posts thus far have been a bit more matter of fact than Marc's were, but hopefully now that the blog and job are now "his," we'll see a bit more opinion & insight.

More doom and gloom

I'm sorry to be so negative lately, but I'm feeling pretty down about the Reds right now.

Case in point: Johnny Almarez, who recently left the team with statements of dissatisfaction with how Wayne Krivsky was running things, just acquired a major job with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves, of course, are one of the finest sports organizations in the world, and the fact that Almarez is now their director of Latin American operations--just a month after resigning from the Reds--speaks volumes about his abilities. I'm not saying this will be a huge hit on the Reds operations, but it's not good when high quality individuals are deserting the team.

And there's STILL nothing happening on the trade/free agent front. I'm glad we're not making bad deals, but I had hoped for some good deals this offseason as well. Gonzalez might turn out to be a quality pickup, but I just don't see the Reds as being better next year than they were this year--and, with the departure of Aurilia and the likely regressions of guys like Arroyo, Hatteberg, Ross, and Weathers, they might be significantly worse. Hopefully Dunn will have a resurgence and we get a few big-time performances in the rotation from a few guys, be they Lohse, Ramirez, or even (once he arrives) Homer Bailey.

Back, sort of...

I have a conference starting tonight and am up to my neck in preparation for my talk. Not that it matters, as, much to my dismay, there's been absolutely nothing worth talking about since my departure aside from Marc's engagement (congrats!! we'll miss you!) and more justifiable bitching about the Kearns/Lopez/Wagner for Bray/Majewski deal.

Nevertheless, Local (to Cincinnatians) singer/songwriter Ryan Parker wrote this morning though to mention that he's released a new song. This one's a bit different from his earlier releases--it's a tribute to Griffey Jr., but at the same time, it's an attack on the prominant steriod users of the 90's. He released it on YouTube, and there's a nice slideshow that goes along with it. It's definitely worth checking out.