It's one thing when Rule 5 picks don't work out. They're always a gamble--after all, they require you to keep someone on your 25-man roster all season who didn't even make the 40-man roster on another team.
But this one looked ridiculous to almost every single observer from day one. Here's my initial take on it (to say I was giving Krivsky the benefit of the doubt is an understatement). And I'll again quote Kevin Goldstein:
6. Reds select RHP Sergio Valenzeula from the Braves. This pick is a joke right? Valenzuela pitched 72 innings this year, split between Atlanta’s Low- and High-A teams. In those 72 innings, he gave up 102 hits while nearly walking (37) as many as he struck out (38). Sure, he’s got plus velocity, but he’s not fooling teams that have maybe, maybe three or future big leaguers on them, so what makes you think he’s going to suddenly have any chance in hell of getting an entire lineup full of big leaguers out?Ah, well.
Chances To Stick: Seriously, they really took Sergio Valenzuela?
The annoyance here isn't really the $25k that the Reds wasted. After all, they made $50k when the Ray stook Guevara in the same draft. The issue is the loss of a borderline relief pitching prospect (Guevara) in the draft to make room for Valenzuela, as well as the lost opportunity to select someone else who had a chance to do something for the Reds this season. So, bleh.