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Monday, March 31, 2008

Can you make a better lineup than Dusty Baker?

As I type this, Opening Day is just over 12 hours away. And with it has come Dusty Baker's first official lineup as a Reds manager, courtsey of John Fay:
Corey Patterson CF
Jeff Keppinger SS
Ken Griffey Jr. RF
Brandon Phillips 2B
Adam Dunn LF
Edwin Encarnacion 3B
Scott Hatteberg 1B
Javier Valentin C
Aaron Harang P
Among the most common (and convincing) critiques of Dusty's managerial tendencies is his selection of leadoff hitters. Statheads "know" that OBP rules all in the leadoff slot, right? Patterson and his PECOTA-projected 0.313 OBP is therefore an awful choice. Right?

I'm pretty sure it is. But I'm not positive, and I'd like to know how big of a deal it is. Fortunately, there's an excellent tool that can answer just this kind of question: John Beamer's Markov model from the Hardball Times 2008 Annual. Because it uses Markov Chains (described here), Beamer's model is a much better approach to understanding the dynamic nature of lineup interactions than simple regression equations (like in David Pinto's oft-cited lineup tool).

So, I'd like to set up a Lineup Showdown! To that end, I'm requesting that each of you reply to this post with two lineups:

1. Your "best" lineup using only Dusty Baker's Opening Day Starting Eight.
2. Your "best" lineup with your pick of players from the Reds' organization.


If you want to submit more or fewer than two lineups (e.g. one vs. righties, one vs. lefties), go ahead. I will take all submitted lineups--along with any others that Baker uses this week--and plug them into Beamer's Markov model, along with 2008 PECOTA projections, and report the results back later this week.

Markov will tell us, for each lineup:
1. Its estimate for how many runs it should produce per game.
2. How many times each batting slot should lead off an inning.
3. Complete run expectancy frequency matrices for every out base & out state.

Should be fun!

18 comments:

  1. I think Patterson feels like Womack to me....

    Bruce should be up...

    I'll be there in the rain for this debauchery

    ReplyDelete
  2. If you'd rather have Bruce, give me a lineup with Bruce. :) -j

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dusty's guys:
    1. Scott Hatteberg
    2. Jeff Keppinger
    3. Ken Griffey Jr
    4. Adam Dunn
    5. Edwin Encarcion
    6. Brandon Phillips
    7. Corey Patterson
    8. Javier Valentin
    9. Aaron Harang

    My guys: Righty on the hill
    1. Joey Votto - 1B
    2. Jeff Keppinger - SS
    3. Adam Dunn - LF
    4. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
    5. Jay Bruce - CF
    6. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
    7. Brandon Phillips - 2B
    8. Catcher
    9. Pitcher

    My guys: Lefty on the hill
    1. Jeff Keppinger - 1B
    2. Adam Dunn - LF
    3. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
    4. Brandon Phillips - 2B
    5. Jay Bruce - CF
    6. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
    7. David Ross (if healthy)
    8. Alex Gonzalez (switch with catcher if Ross isn't healthy)
    9. Pitcher

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dusty's guys:
    1. Jeff Keppinger
    2. Brandon Phillips
    3. Ken Griffey Jr
    4. Adam Dunn
    5. Edwin Encarcion
    6. Scott Hatteberg
    7. Javier Valentin
    8. Corey Patterson
    9. Pitcher

    My guys:
    1. Jeff Keppinger - SS
    2. Brandon Phillips - 2B
    3. Adam Dunn - LF
    4. Ken Griffey Jr - RF
    5. Edwin Encarnacion - 3B
    6. Jay Bruce - CF
    7. Joey Votto - 1B
    8. Catcher
    9. Pitcher

    ReplyDelete
  5. Today's Players:
    1. Keppinger
    2. Hatteberg
    3. Phillips
    4. Dunn
    5. Griffey
    6. Encarnacion
    7. Patterson
    8. Valentin
    9. Harang

    What Could Have Been*
    1. Hopper LF
    2. Keppinger SS
    3. Dunn 1B
    4. Phillips 2B
    5. Griffey RF
    6. Encarnacion 3B
    7. Valentin C
    8. Harang P
    9. Freel CF

    * if we'd got LaRussa instead of Baker

    ReplyDelete
  6. My lineup today:
    1. Jay Bruce
    2. Jeff Keppinger
    3. Ken Griffey Jr
    4. Adam Dunn
    5. Edwin Encarnacion
    6. Brandon Phillips
    7. Joey Votto
    8. David Ross
    9. Aaron Harang

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dusty's guys (vs RHP)
    1. Kepp
    2. Votto
    3. EE
    4. Dunn
    5. JR
    6. Phillips
    7. Javy
    8. Patterson
    9. P

    Dusty vs. LHP
    1. Kepp
    2. Votto
    3. EE
    4. Dunn
    5. JR
    6. Phillips
    7. Javy
    8. P
    9. Hopper (ain't I clever)

    Organization vs. RHP:
    1. Kepp
    2. Dunn
    3. JR
    4. Bruce
    5. Votto
    6. EE
    7. Phillips
    8. Javy
    9. P

    vs. LHP
    1. Bruce
    2. Kepp
    3. EE
    4. Dunn
    5. Andy Phillips
    6. JR
    7. Brandon Phillips
    8. Ryan Hanigan
    9. P

    Note: I acknowledge that mMy lineups are incredibly cheaty, since I don't have to pay attention to ego issues, or the L-R-L gospel. I assume the Markov model won't account for either. This lineup doesn't actually happen outside a Strat-O-Matic board - but hey, I'm trying to win a prize here.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Sorry - Switch JR and EE in my Dusty RHP lineup. Jr should bat #3; EE #5.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi,

    Thanks for all the lineups folks! This is great fun.

    One clarification: for Dusty's Guys, please go with his starting eight. This means Hatteberg, not Votto. :}

    The reason for this is that I want to see how much of an effect strictly shuffling the lineup, rather than substituting players, has on the outcome of the model.

    And Chris, yes, you're right that you can "cheat" by not worrying about lefty/righty issues. I have three lineups that I'm putting into the mix: one realistic Dusty's Eight, one realistic My Eight, and one in which I try to exploit the model by relying on what I learned in The Book. We'll see what works best. :)
    -j

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dusty's:
    1) Keppinger
    2) Votto
    3) Dunn
    4) Phillips
    5) Griffey
    6) Encarnacion
    7) Patterson
    8) Valentin
    9) Harangatang

    All-org:
    1) Hopper/Freel
    2) Keppinger
    3) Dunn
    4) Phillips
    5) Griffey Jr.
    6) Encarnacion
    7) Votto
    8) Ross/Valentin
    9) Harangatang

    w/ Bruce moving into the lineup on June 1st, replacing Freel/Hopper, Keppinger moves to #1, Votto to #2, and Bruce into #7

    ReplyDelete
  11. So "Dusty's Guys" means Patterson, and not "anyone else."

    Revised:
    Dusty's guys (vs RHP)
    1. Kepp
    2. Hatte
    3. EE
    4. Dunn
    5. JR
    6. Javy
    7. BP
    8. CPatterson
    9. P

    Dusty vs. LHP
    1. Kepp
    2. EE
    3. Dunn
    4. BP
    5. JR
    6. Hatte
    7. Patterson
    8. Javy
    9. P

    Organization vs. RHP:
    1. Kepp
    2. Dunn
    3. JR
    4. Bruce
    5. Votto
    6. EE
    7. Phillips
    8. Javy
    9. P

    vs. LHP
    1. Bruce
    2. Kepp
    3. EE
    4. Dunn
    5. Andy Phillips
    6. JR
    7. Brandon Phillips
    8. Ryan Hanigan
    9. P

    ReplyDelete
  12. Dusty's Guys:
    1. Hatteberg
    2. Dunn
    3. Encarnacion
    4. Junior
    5. Keppinger
    6. Phillips
    7. Patterson
    8. Valentin
    9. Harang

    Rick's Guys vR:
    1. Votto
    2. Dunn
    3. Encarnacion
    4. Griffey
    5. Keppinger
    6. Bruce
    7. Phillips
    8. Ross
    9. Harang

    Rick's Guys vL:
    1. Keppinger
    2. Phillips
    3. Dunn
    4. Encarnacion
    5. Griffey
    6. Ross
    7. Votto
    8. Harang
    9. Hopper

    ReplyDelete
  13. Wow, did I start this with my Dusty rant? I guess I better not screw this up then.

    Dusty's guys:

    vs RHP
    Kepp
    Hatte
    Griff
    Dunn
    EE
    BP
    Patterson
    Javi
    P

    vs LHP
    Hatte
    Dunn
    EE
    Griff
    BP
    Kepp
    Patterson
    Javi
    P

    My guys:

    vs RHP
    Kepp
    Votto
    Bruce
    Dunn
    Griff
    EE
    BP
    Javi
    P

    vs LHP
    Votto
    Dunn
    EE
    Griff
    Bruce
    BP
    Kepp
    Javi
    P

    Justin, does this spreadsheet come with the THT annual, or did you have access to it through other means? I'd like to look at it, and if it's not too much work code it up.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Continued thanks for all the lineups!

    @Brad,

    Heh, you didn't really start it, as I've been intermittantly working up a lineup post using this Markov tool for at least a month now. But I think your rant plus others gave me the idea of having a "think you can beat Dusty" showdown. :)

    As for the Markov spreadsheet, its download came as part of the purchase for the THT 08 Annual. So I don't feel as though it would be appropriate for me to send over the spreadsheet itself--though if you buy the annual, you can, of course, download the spreadsheet from THT.

    However, once you get it, if you want to replicate my results, I made a few small changes (with John Beamer's help) to make the lineup tool work a bit better (particularly in terms of correctly inputting the % times leading off an inning into the model for any given set of players). I'd be happy to send those modifications along, as well as my input data.
    -j

    ReplyDelete
  15. @Chris: I'm interested in why you have BP batting 7th vs. lefties. I think you and I share a similar opinion about BP, but I also think that he's hit lefties fairly well over the last couple of years. Just wondering what your thinking is there.

    My lineups:
    Dusty's guys:
    vs. RHP
    1. Scott Hatteberg
    2. Adam Dunn
    3. Edwin Encarnacion
    4. Ken Griffey Jr.
    5. Brandon Phillips
    6. Corey Patterson
    7. Javier Valentin
    8. Pitcher
    9. Jeff Keppinger

    vs. LHP
    1. Jeff Keppinger
    2. Adam Dunn
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Edwin Encarnacion
    5. Ken Griffey Jr.
    6. Corey Patterson
    7. David Ross
    8. Pitcher
    9. Scott Hatteberg

    Organization
    vs. RHP
    1. Joey Votto
    2. Adam Dunn
    3. Edwin Encarnacion
    4. Ken Griffey Jr.
    5. Jay Bruce
    6. Brandon Phillips
    7. Javier Valentin
    8. Pitcher
    9. Jeff Keppinger

    vs. LHP
    1. Jeff Keppinger
    2. Adam Dunn
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Jay Bruce
    5. Edwin Encarnacion
    6. Ken Griffey
    7. David Ross
    8. Pitcher
    9. Alex Gonzalez

    ReplyDelete
  16. Thanks Justin. I'm not looking for handouts, I was just wondering where you obtained it. Looks like I'm probably buy the THT annual now.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Dusty's:
    1. Scott Hatteberg
    2. Jeff Keppinger
    3. Brandon Phillips
    4. Ken Griffey Jr.
    5. Adam Dunn
    6. Edwin Encarnacion
    7. Javier Valentin
    8. Corey Patterson
    9. Pitcher

    Organization:
    1. Joey Votto
    2. Brandon Phillips
    3. Ken Griffey Jr.
    4. Adam Dunn
    5. Jay Bruce
    6. Edwin Encarnacion
    7. Alex Gonzalez
    8. David Ross
    9. Pitcher

    ReplyDelete
  18. Joel,
    I just think BP's SLG-heavy/OBP-lite contributions fit best in the 7 hole. I may have made a mistake in putting him behind Jr vs. LHP - I can't recall what I was thinking, honestly. Maybe that Votto and Jr, behind relatively high OBPs, would put runners on base for BP.

    ReplyDelete