Table of Contents

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 13 April

I've put together some spreadsheets that I'm able to fairly quickly populate to get up-to-date stats on the 2008 Cincinnati Reds, including the sorts of statistics described in my player value series. The idea is to have a weekly look at the Reds stats throughout the season, with a minimal (for me) amount of commentary.

Tonight was the first run (though I'd already set up the spreadsheets) and required a fair number of tweaks, but even so I was able to get all the stats ready in 35 minutes. I expect that I'll be able to get it down to 20-some minutes in the future, which will let me update these season-to-date stats weekly. I will probably do this in lieu of the monthly Reds reviews I've done over the past few years, as those are just too time consuming and didn't really provide much genuine insight.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, but if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update
Team W L PCT RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
STL 9 4 0.692 61 4.71 47 3.61 8 0.544 112
MIL 8 4 0.667 63 5.28 50 4.21 7 0.547 108
CHN 7 5 0.583 57 4.77 58 4.85 6 0.553 95
PIT 6 6 0.500 64 5.30 66 5.47 6 0.560 81
CIN 6 7 0.462 51 3.96 50 3.88 7 0.564 75
HOU 5 8 0.385 53 4.08 55 4.23 6 0.570 62
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

The Reds' miseries in Pittsburgh amplified it, but over the first two weeks the Reds' offense has been the worst in the NL Central. Fortunately, the pitching has been second-best, which has kept them out of the basement.....Pythagoras has them in third place, for whatever that's worth.

Hitting
Last First PA %BB %K %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Patterson Corey 46 7% 4% 15% 0.189 0.262 0.304 0.667 0.405 0.971 1.039 8.8 7.19 4.5
Phillips Brandon 57 9% 19% 29% 0.375 0.308 0.368 0.481 0.173 0.849 0.786 8.9 6.46 4.1
Bako Paul 35 14% 17% 25% 0.458 0.367 0.457 0.500 0.133 0.957 0.753 6.5 8.97 4.0
Keppinger Jeff S 58 10% 3% 14% 0.298 0.320 0.386 0.500 0.180 0.886 0.885 8.6 6.28 3.9
Griffey Jr. Ken 54 15% 13% 19% 0.297 0.273 0.389 0.409 0.136 0.798 0.821 6.4 5.05 2.0
Dunn Adam 50 26% 20% 11% 0.192 0.167 0.380 0.250 0.083 0.630 0.851 4.9 4.14 0.8
Hopper Norris S 20 5% 0% 15% 0.313 0.313 0.389 0.313 0.000 0.702 0.718 2.4 4.79 0.7
Encarnacion Edwin 49 20% 16% 7% 0.172 0.179 0.347 0.333 0.154 0.680 0.849 4.7 3.88 0.5
Valentin Javier 18 11% 6% 7% 0.267 0.250 0.333 0.313 0.063 0.646 0.616 1.8 3.93 0.2
Votto Joey D 26 0% 15% 36% 0.364 0.308 0.308 0.308 0.000 0.616 0.705 1.9 2.75 -0.5
Hatteberg Scott 27 19% 7% 25% 0.200 0.190 0.333 0.238 0.048 0.571 0.839 1.9 2.70 -0.5
Freel Ryan 24 4% 8% 16% 0.238 0.227 0.250 0.273 0.046 0.523 0.634 1.0 1.39 -1.4
Castro Juan 10 10% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.000 0.000 0.100 0.581 -0.6 -1.63 -1.7
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The summed linear weights across all players is 57 runs, which is 6 more than they've scored--almost a half-run per game more. Situational hitting hasn't been good thus far to say the least....Patterson, Bako, Phillips, and Keppinger all had a fine first two weeks.....PrOPS thinks that Bako will turn back into a pumpkin soon, and isn't impressed with Phillips.....On the other hand, PrOPS thinks that Patterson and Keppinger have been legit, and that Dunn, Encarnacion, and Hatteberg have had awful luck thus far.....Dunn and Eddie's line drive rate has been dreadful, though.....Ryan Freel has picked up where he left off last season, and Juan Castro managed to do a tremendous amount of damage to the Reds despite having only 10 PA's.


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Patterson Corey CF 4.5 2.0 0.2 6.8
Bako Paul C 4.0 1.2 0.6 5.8
Keppinger Jeff S SS 3.9 0.7 0.3 4.9
Phillips Brandon 2B 4.1 -1.5 0.1 2.7
Votto Joey D 1B -0.5 2.7 -0.3 1.9
Dunn Adam LF 0.8 1.3 -0.4 1.7
Castro Juan SS -1.7 3.0 0.1 1.3
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 2.0 -0.4 -0.4 1.2
Valentin Javier C 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4
Hatteberg Scott 1B -0.5 0.9 -0.3 0.1
Freel Ryan CF -1.4 0.2 0.0 -1.2
Hopper Norris S LF 0.7 -2.1 -0.1 -1.5
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 0.5 -2.9 0.1 -2.3
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

These fielding estimates have the Reds at +5 runs overall.....Patterson's plus performance at the plate and field has him leading the Reds position players in value, along side the even more surprising Paul Bako.....Jeff Keppinger has kept on hitting, and has been adequate at shortstop.....Votto and Castro's fielding numbers look too high, and are an indication of small sample size issues.....The opposite is (unfortunately) probably not the case with Encarnacion, who comes in well below-replacement level over the first few weeks....unfortunately, the the Reds don't really have other options as long as Gonzalez remains injured.


Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Harang Aaron 21.0 6.4 2.1 0.9 10% 42% 0.200 2.14 3.37 0.579 6.4 2.73 7.5 4.6
Cueto Johnny 19.3 11.2 0.5 1.9 19% 35% 0.171 3.72 3.09 0.550 5.7 2.66 7.1 4.9
Cordero Francisco 5.0 9.0 1.8 0.0 0% 17% 0.167 0.00 1.55 0.285 0.3 0.54 4.3 2.7
Volquez Edinson 10.3 7.9 4.4 0.0 0% 48% 0.286 0.87 2.66 0.560 2.7 2.35 4.1 3.1
Lincoln Mike 6.7 5.4 0.0 0.0 0% 62% 0.227 1.35 1.75 0.442 1.0 1.39 2.7 2.0
Burton Jared 6.7 14.8 1.3 2.7 47% 64% 0.000 4.05 3.67 0.494 2.1 2.88 1.6 0.6
Mercker Kent 3.7 4.9 4.9 2.4 24% 44% 0.000 2.45 6.71 0.595 1.3 3.20 0.7 -0.9
Fogg Josh 9.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 24% 41% 0.214 7.00 6.59 0.888 6.0 5.97 0.0 -1.2
Affeldt Jeremy 4.0 6.8 6.8 2.3 47% 82% 0.182 2.25 6.68 0.833 2.5 5.61 -0.3 -1.0
Weathers David 4.7 0.0 9.6 0.0 0% 33% 0.263 3.86 6.14 0.750 2.9 5.54 -0.3 -0.9
Coffey Todd 8.3 2.2 1.1 2.2 24% 50% 0.281 7.56 5.70 0.883 5.5 5.99 -0.9 -1.2
Arroyo Bronson 15.7 8.0 2.9 2.9 26% 39% 0.286 5.17 5.92 0.947 12.4 7.11 -2.0 -1.0
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Base runs predicts the Reds should have given up 49 runs, 1 shy of their actual total.....There's a fairly bimodal distribution here, with great performances and lousy ones, and little in between....Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto bring top honors, but Cordero and Volquez have been outstanding in less work.....Kudos to Mike Lincoln for a tremendous first two weeks....There are huge mismatches, in the bad way, between ERA and FIP for Mercker, Weathers, and Affeldt, which makes me worry about the bullpen.....Base Runs agrees on Weathers and Affedlt...has Weathers really still not had a strikeout this season?!?

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.