Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 13 April

I've put together some spreadsheets that I'm able to fairly quickly populate to get up-to-date stats on the 2008 Cincinnati Reds, including the sorts of statistics described in my player value series. The idea is to have a weekly look at the Reds stats throughout the season, with a minimal (for me) amount of commentary.

Tonight was the first run (though I'd already set up the spreadsheets) and required a fair number of tweaks, but even so I was able to get all the stats ready in 35 minutes. I expect that I'll be able to get it down to 20-some minutes in the future, which will let me update these season-to-date stats weekly. I will probably do this in lieu of the monthly Reds reviews I've done over the past few years, as those are just too time consuming and didn't really provide much genuine insight.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, but if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
STL	9	4	0.692	61	4.71	47	3.61	8	0.544	112
MIL	8	4	0.667	63	5.28	50	4.21	7	0.547	108
CHN	7	5	0.583	57	4.77	58	4.85	6	0.553	95
PIT	6	6	0.500	64	5.30	66	5.47	6	0.560	81
CIN	6	7	0.462	51	3.96	50	3.88	7	0.564	75
HOU	5	8	0.385	53	4.08	55	4.23	6	0.570	62

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

The Reds' miseries in Pittsburgh amplified it, but over the first two weeks the Reds' offense has been the worst in the NL Central. Fortunately, the pitching has been second-best, which has kept them out of the basement.....Pythagoras has them in third place, for whatever that's worth.

Hitting

Last	First	PA	%BB	%K	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Patterson	Corey	46	7%	4%	15%	0.189	0.262	0.304	0.667	0.405	0.971	1.039	8.8	7.19	4.5
Phillips	Brandon	57	9%	19%	29%	0.375	0.308	0.368	0.481	0.173	0.849	0.786	8.9	6.46	4.1
Bako	Paul	35	14%	17%	25%	0.458	0.367	0.457	0.500	0.133	0.957	0.753	6.5	8.97	4.0
Keppinger	Jeff S	58	10%	3%	14%	0.298	0.320	0.386	0.500	0.180	0.886	0.885	8.6	6.28	3.9
Griffey Jr.	Ken	54	15%	13%	19%	0.297	0.273	0.389	0.409	0.136	0.798	0.821	6.4	5.05	2.0
Dunn	Adam	50	26%	20%	11%	0.192	0.167	0.380	0.250	0.083	0.630	0.851	4.9	4.14	0.8
Hopper	Norris S	20	5%	0%	15%	0.313	0.313	0.389	0.313	0.000	0.702	0.718	2.4	4.79	0.7
Encarnacion	Edwin	49	20%	16%	7%	0.172	0.179	0.347	0.333	0.154	0.680	0.849	4.7	3.88	0.5
Valentin	Javier	18	11%	6%	7%	0.267	0.250	0.333	0.313	0.063	0.646	0.616	1.8	3.93	0.2
Votto	Joey D	26	0%	15%	36%	0.364	0.308	0.308	0.308	0.000	0.616	0.705	1.9	2.75	-0.5
Hatteberg	Scott	27	19%	7%	25%	0.200	0.190	0.333	0.238	0.048	0.571	0.839	1.9	2.70	-0.5
Freel	Ryan	24	4%	8%	16%	0.238	0.227	0.250	0.273	0.046	0.523	0.634	1.0	1.39	-1.4
Castro	Juan	10	10%	0%	0%	0.000	0.000	0.100	0.000	0.000	0.100	0.581	-0.6	-1.63	-1.7

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The summed linear weights across all players is 57 runs, which is 6 more than they've scored--almost a half-run per game more. Situational hitting hasn't been good thus far to say the least....Patterson, Bako, Phillips, and Keppinger all had a fine first two weeks.....PrOPS thinks that Bako will turn back into a pumpkin soon, and isn't impressed with Phillips.....On the other hand, PrOPS thinks that Patterson and Keppinger have been legit, and that Dunn, Encarnacion, and Hatteberg have had awful luck thus far.....Dunn and Eddie's line drive rate has been dreadful, though.....Ryan Freel has picked up where he left off last season, and Juan Castro managed to do a tremendous amount of damage to the Reds despite having only 10 PA's.


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Patterson	Corey	CF	4.5	2.0	0.2	6.8
Bako	Paul	C	4.0	1.2	0.6	5.8
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	3.9	0.7	0.3	4.9
Phillips	Brandon	2B	4.1	-1.5	0.1	2.7
Votto	Joey D	1B	-0.5	2.7	-0.3	1.9
Dunn	Adam	LF	0.8	1.3	-0.4	1.7
Castro	Juan	SS	-1.7	3.0	0.1	1.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	2.0	-0.4	-0.4	1.2
Valentin	Javier	C	0.2	0.0	0.2	0.4
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-0.5	0.9	-0.3	0.1
Freel	Ryan	CF	-1.4	0.2	0.0	-1.2
Hopper	Norris S	LF	0.7	-2.1	-0.1	-1.5
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	0.5	-2.9	0.1	-2.3

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

These fielding estimates have the Reds at +5 runs overall.....Patterson's plus performance at the plate and field has him leading the Reds position players in value, along side the even more surprising Paul Bako.....Jeff Keppinger has kept on hitting, and has been adequate at shortstop.....Votto and Castro's fielding numbers look too high, and are an indication of small sample size issues.....The opposite is (unfortunately) probably not the case with Encarnacion, who comes in well below-replacement level over the first few weeks....unfortunately, the the Reds don't really have other options as long as Gonzalez remains injured.


Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Harang	Aaron	21.0	6.4	2.1	0.9	10%	42%	0.200	2.14	3.37	0.579	6.4	2.73	7.5	4.6
Cueto	Johnny	19.3	11.2	0.5	1.9	19%	35%	0.171	3.72	3.09	0.550	5.7	2.66	7.1	4.9
Cordero	Francisco	5.0	9.0	1.8	0.0	0%	17%	0.167	0.00	1.55	0.285	0.3	0.54	4.3	2.7
Volquez	Edinson	10.3	7.9	4.4	0.0	0%	48%	0.286	0.87	2.66	0.560	2.7	2.35	4.1	3.1
Lincoln	Mike	6.7	5.4	0.0	0.0	0%	62%	0.227	1.35	1.75	0.442	1.0	1.39	2.7	2.0
Burton	Jared	6.7	14.8	1.3	2.7	47%	64%	0.000	4.05	3.67	0.494	2.1	2.88	1.6	0.6
Mercker	Kent	3.7	4.9	4.9	2.4	24%	44%	0.000	2.45	6.71	0.595	1.3	3.20	0.7	-0.9
Fogg	Josh	9.0	6.0	3.0	3.0	24%	41%	0.214	7.00	6.59	0.888	6.0	5.97	0.0	-1.2
Affeldt	Jeremy	4.0	6.8	6.8	2.3	47%	82%	0.182	2.25	6.68	0.833	2.5	5.61	-0.3	-1.0
Weathers	David	4.7	0.0	9.6	0.0	0%	33%	0.263	3.86	6.14	0.750	2.9	5.54	-0.3	-0.9
Coffey	Todd	8.3	2.2	1.1	2.2	24%	50%	0.281	7.56	5.70	0.883	5.5	5.99	-0.9	-1.2
Arroyo	Bronson	15.7	8.0	2.9	2.9	26%	39%	0.286	5.17	5.92	0.947	12.4	7.11	-2.0	-1.0

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Base runs predicts the Reds should have given up 49 runs, 1 shy of their actual total.....There's a fairly bimodal distribution here, with great performances and lousy ones, and little in between....Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto bring top honors, but Cordero and Volquez have been outstanding in less work.....Kudos to Mike Lincoln for a tremendous first two weeks....There are huge mismatches, in the bad way, between ERA and FIP for Mercker, Weathers, and Affeldt, which makes me worry about the bullpen.....Base Runs agrees on Weathers and Affedlt...has Weathers really still not had a strikeout this season?!?

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.