I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in the player value series. But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!
NL Central Update
Team | W | L | PCT | GB | RS* | RS/G* | RA* | RA/G* | Pwins | W%for90 | XtrapW |
CHN | 12 | 6 | 0.667 | 0.0 | 109 | 6.04 | 83 | 4.64 | 11 | 0.542 | 108 |
STL | 12 | 7 | 0.632 | 0.5 | 89 | 4.67 | 69 | 3.65 | 12 | 0.545 | 102 |
MIL | 11 | 7 | 0.611 | 1.0 | 86 | 4.79 | 73 | 4.07 | 10 | 0.549 | 99 |
CIN | 8 | 11 | 0.421 | 4.5 | 77 | 4.06 | 86 | 4.53 | 9 | 0.573 | 68 |
PIT | 7 | 11 | 0.389 | 5.0 | 82 | 4.55 | 119 | 6.62 | 6 | 0.576 | 63 |
HOU | 7 | 12 | 0.368 | 5.5 | 73 | 3.84 | 88 | 4.63 | 8 | 0.580 | 60 |
Tough week for the Reds, who went 2-4.....their extrapolated win total is currently 68--not good, especially with three teams on pace for 99+ wins...plenty of time to turn it around, of course.....The Reds' offense clawed its way out of the bottom of the division (they're now fifth), but the defense dropped to third place--at least they're not the Pirates (6.6 runs allowed/game)!.....The Cubs surged to the top of the division, and Pittsburgh fell a notch....
Hitting
Last | First | PA | BB% | K% | %LD | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | OPS | PrOPS | lwts_RC | R/G | RAR |
Keppinger | Jeff S | 84 | 7% | 5% | 19% | 0.324 | 0.329 | 0.373 | 0.500 | 0.171 | 0.873 | 0.819 | 12.7 | 6.31 | 5.8 |
Encarnacion | Edwin | 74 | 16% | 14% | 8% | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.378 | 0.484 | 0.226 | 0.862 | 0.891 | 11.0 | 6.28 | 5.0 |
Bako | Paul | 54 | 11% | 19% | 26% | 0.378 | 0.313 | 0.389 | 0.479 | 0.166 | 0.868 | 0.804 | 8.7 | 6.88 | 4.3 |
Dunn | Adam | 75 | 28% | 20% | 15% | 0.216 | 0.189 | 0.413 | 0.340 | 0.151 | 0.753 | 0.977 | 9.7 | 5.80 | 3.9 |
Votto | Joey D | 47 | 0% | 19% | 29% | 0.314 | 0.298 | 0.298 | 0.553 | 0.255 | 0.851 | 0.888 | 6.8 | 5.40 | 2.5 |
Griffey Jr. | Ken | 79 | 10% | 11% | 14% | 0.259 | 0.261 | 0.342 | 0.435 | 0.174 | 0.777 | 0.822 | 9.0 | 4.55 | 2.2 |
Phillips | Brandon | 78 | 8% | 22% | 27% | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.321 | 0.389 | 0.125 | 0.710 | 0.731 | 8.6 | 4.27 | 1.7 |
Patterson | Corey | 67 | 9% | 6% | 15% | 0.135 | 0.186 | 0.258 | 0.475 | 0.289 | 0.733 | 0.938 | 8.2 | 4.29 | 1.6 |
Hopper | Norris S | 30 | 7% | 0% | 14% | 0.240 | 0.240 | 0.321 | 0.240 | 0.000 | 0.561 | 0.730 | 2.6 | 3.29 | -0.1 |
Valentin | Javier | 25 | 8% | 20% | 11% | 0.278 | 0.217 | 0.280 | 0.261 | 0.044 | 0.541 | 0.559 | 1.7 | 2.41 | -0.7 |
Hatteberg | Scott | 33 | 21% | 9% | 22% | 0.174 | 0.160 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.040 | 0.533 | 0.833 | 2.1 | 2.50 | -0.8 |
Freel | Ryan | 32 | 3% | 13% | 25% | 0.296 | 0.267 | 0.281 | 0.300 | 0.033 | 0.581 | 0.659 | 1.9 | 2.22 | -1.1 |
Castro | Juan | 11 | 9% | 0% | 10% | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.091 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.091 | 0.647 | -0.7 | -1.72 | -2.0 |
The Reds' linear weights total is now 82 runs, which tops the actual runs scored (77) by five runs.....Keppinger takes the lead with continued fine hitting.....Patterson's extreme slump this past week took him from 4.5 RAR to just 1.6 RAR...PrOPS still thinks Patterson has been hitting well, fwiw.....Encarnacion's surge this week pulled him all the way to second place on the team in offensive value.....Votto showed similar improvement, but has he really still not walked yet this year? (edit: I see that he finally drew a walk tonight!).....Phillips had a rough week at the plate.....Dunn might be starting to show signs of life, with a nice uptick in his LD% and the highest PrOPS on the team...
Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Last | First | Pos | RAR | Fielding | PosAdj | TtlValue |
Bako | Paul | C | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 7.5 |
Votto | Joey D | 1B | 2.5 | 5.3 | -0.6 | 7.2 |
Keppinger | Jeff S | SS | 5.8 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 6.4 |
Dunn | Adam | LF | 3.9 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 3.8 |
Patterson | Corey | CF | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 3.1 |
Phillips | Brandon | 2B | 1.7 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 |
Encarnacion | Edwin | 3B | 5.0 | -3.5 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
Castro | Juan | SS | -2.0 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
Griffey Jr. | Ken | RF | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.6 | 1.0 |
Hatteberg | Scott | 1B | -0.8 | 1.0 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Hopper | Norris S | LF | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
Freel | Ryan | LF | -1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.6 |
Valentin | Javier | C | -0.7 | -1.1 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
Fielding totals have the Reds as a team ~9 runs above average, which corroborates with a few other metrics I've seen--surprising.....Paul Bako continues to lead a charmed life, with great performances behind the plate and in the field...and to think that I've not yet given him a proper profile.....I still think Votto's fielding rating has to be a bit high, but RZR is loving him so far thanks to his 8 OOZ plays.....Encarnacion's value continues to be badly hindered by his fielding, as it always is.....Valentin has been brutal thus far.....Griffey has to hit to have any value, and thus far he really hasn't.....Believe it or not, the fielding metrics indicate that Castro did enough good in his short amount of playing time to provide value above replacement player, despite going 0/10 prior to being DFA'd today....
Pitching
Last | First | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | HR/F | %GB | BABIP | ERA | FIP | OPSa | BsR | BsR/G | RAR | FIPRAR |
Harang | Aaron | 35.0 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 13% | 37% | 0.216 | 2.83 | 3.69 | 0.637 | 12.7 | 3.27 | 10.3 | 6.6 |
Cueto | Johnny | 26.3 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 17% | 39% | 0.180 | 3.42 | 3.44 | 0.587 | 8.5 | 2.90 | 8.8 | 5.7 |
Volquez | Edinson | 15.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0% | 51% | 0.308 | 1.17 | 2.71 | 0.573 | 4.2 | 2.49 | 5.8 | 4.5 |
Cordero | Francisco | 8.0 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0% | 29% | 0.176 | 1.13 | 3.04 | 0.418 | 1.1 | 1.26 | 4.8 | 1.7 |
Lincoln | Mike | 8.7 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0% | 54% | 0.259 | 3.12 | 1.78 | 0.487 | 1.7 | 1.73 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
Mercker | Kent | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 19% | 38% | 0.133 | 3.18 | 5.13 | 0.606 | 1.9 | 3.00 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
Affeldt | Jeremy | 6.7 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 32% | 71% | 0.286 | 2.70 | 3.18 | 0.661 | 2.7 | 3.68 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
Burton | Jared | 10.7 | 15.1 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 19% | 56% | 0.348 | 4.22 | 2.75 | 0.702 | 5.2 | 4.35 | 0.7 | 2.0 |
Coffey | Todd | 12.3 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 28% | 55% | 0.279 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 0.864 | 7.9 | 5.79 | -1.2 | -2.0 |
Weathers | David | 7.3 | 1.2 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0% | 29% | 0.300 | 4.91 | 6.05 | 0.817 | 5.9 | 7.23 | -1.9 | -1.3 |
Arroyo | Bronson | 21.3 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 25% | 39% | 0.313 | 5.48 | 5.84 | 0.954 | 17.1 | 7.20 | -3.0 | -1.1 |
Fogg | Josh | 11.0 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 25% | 39% | 0.324 | 13.09 | 7.10 | 1.116 | 11.8 | 9.69 | -4.6 | -2.1 |
Overall, the Reds pitchers' base runs total is 81, five shy of their actual total--so by linear weights (82 runs scored) and base runs (81 runs allowed), they're a 0.500 team.....Not much change at the top--Harang, Cueto, Volquez, and Cordero continue to be the standouts.....Jared Burton's FIP is light years better than his ERA--check out the strikeout rate & GB%.....One has to think that the absurdly-high home run rates of Affeldt, Coffey, and especially Arroyo will stabilize at some point...but then again, Coffey did that all last year.....Weathers finally got himself a strikeout, but one has to wonder how he'll be when he returns from the DL.....Fogg justifiably pitched his way out of the rotation, but he might be adequate as a long man...
Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.
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