Table of Contents

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 20 April

This is my weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in the player value series. But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update
Team W L PCT GB RS* RS/G* RA* RA/G* Pwins W%for90 XtrapW
CHN 12 6 0.667 0.0 109 6.04 83 4.64 11 0.542 108
STL 12 7 0.632 0.5 89 4.67 69 3.65 12 0.545 102
MIL 11 7 0.611 1.0 86 4.79 73 4.07 10 0.549 99
CIN 8 11 0.421 4.5 77 4.06 86 4.53 9 0.573 68
PIT 7 11 0.389 5.0 82 4.55 119 6.62 6 0.576 63
HOU 7 12 0.368 5.5 73 3.84 88 4.63 8 0.580 60
Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Tough week for the Reds, who went 2-4.....their extrapolated win total is currently 68--not good, especially with three teams on pace for 99+ wins...plenty of time to turn it around, of course.....The Reds' offense clawed its way out of the bottom of the division (they're now fifth), but the defense dropped to third place--at least they're not the Pirates (6.6 runs allowed/game)!.....The Cubs surged to the top of the division, and Pittsburgh fell a notch....

Hitting

Last First PA BB% K% %LD BABIP AVG OBP SLG ISO OPS PrOPS lwts_RC R/G RAR
Keppinger Jeff S 84 7% 5% 19% 0.324 0.329 0.373 0.500 0.171 0.873 0.819 12.7 6.31 5.8
Encarnacion Edwin 74 16% 14% 8% 0.250 0.258 0.378 0.484 0.226 0.862 0.891 11.0 6.28 5.0
Bako Paul 54 11% 19% 26% 0.378 0.313 0.389 0.479 0.166 0.868 0.804 8.7 6.88 4.3
Dunn Adam 75 28% 20% 15% 0.216 0.189 0.413 0.340 0.151 0.753 0.977 9.7 5.80 3.9
Votto Joey D 47 0% 19% 29% 0.314 0.298 0.298 0.553 0.255 0.851 0.888 6.8 5.40 2.5
Griffey Jr. Ken 79 10% 11% 14% 0.259 0.261 0.342 0.435 0.174 0.777 0.822 9.0 4.55 2.2
Phillips Brandon 78 8% 22% 27% 0.333 0.264 0.321 0.389 0.125 0.710 0.731 8.6 4.27 1.7
Patterson Corey 67 9% 6% 15% 0.135 0.186 0.258 0.475 0.289 0.733 0.938 8.2 4.29 1.6
Hopper Norris S 30 7% 0% 14% 0.240 0.240 0.321 0.240 0.000 0.561 0.730 2.6 3.29 -0.1
Valentin Javier 25 8% 20% 11% 0.278 0.217 0.280 0.261 0.044 0.541 0.559 1.7 2.41 -0.7
Hatteberg Scott 33 21% 9% 22% 0.174 0.160 0.333 0.200 0.040 0.533 0.833 2.1 2.50 -0.8
Freel Ryan 32 3% 13% 25% 0.296 0.267 0.281 0.300 0.033 0.581 0.659 1.9 2.22 -1.1
Castro Juan 11 9% 0% 10% 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.000 0.000 0.091 0.647 -0.7 -1.72 -2.0
Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' linear weights total is now 82 runs, which tops the actual runs scored (77) by five runs.....Keppinger takes the lead with continued fine hitting.....Patterson's extreme slump this past week took him from 4.5 RAR to just 1.6 RAR...PrOPS still thinks Patterson has been hitting well, fwiw.....Encarnacion's surge this week pulled him all the way to second place on the team in offensive value.....Votto showed similar improvement, but has he really still not walked yet this year? (edit: I see that he finally drew a walk tonight!).....Phillips had a rough week at the plate.....Dunn might be starting to show signs of life, with a nice uptick in his LD% and the highest PrOPS on the team...


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)
Last First Pos RAR Fielding PosAdj TtlValue
Bako Paul C 4.3 2.3 0.9 7.5
Votto Joey D 1B 2.5 5.3 -0.6 7.2
Keppinger Jeff S SS 5.8 0.1 0.5 6.4
Dunn Adam LF 3.9 0.5 -0.6 3.8
Patterson Corey CF 1.6 1.1 0.3 3.1
Phillips Brandon 2B 1.7 0.1 0.1 1.9
Encarnacion Edwin 3B 5.0 -3.5 0.1 1.6
Castro Juan SS -2.0 3.1 0.1 1.2
Griffey Jr. Ken RF 2.2 -0.6 -0.6 1.0
Hatteberg Scott 1B -0.8 1.0 -0.3 -0.1
Hopper Norris S LF -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2
Freel Ryan LF -1.1 0.5 0.0 -0.6
Valentin Javier C -0.7 -1.1 0.3 -1.5
Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Fielding totals have the Reds as a team ~9 runs above average, which corroborates with a few other metrics I've seen--surprising.....Paul Bako continues to lead a charmed life, with great performances behind the plate and in the field...and to think that I've not yet given him a proper profile.....I still think Votto's fielding rating has to be a bit high, but RZR is loving him so far thanks to his 8 OOZ plays.....Encarnacion's value continues to be badly hindered by his fielding, as it always is.....Valentin has been brutal thus far.....Griffey has to hit to have any value, and thus far he really hasn't.....Believe it or not, the fielding metrics indicate that Castro did enough good in his short amount of playing time to provide value above replacement player, despite going 0/10 prior to being DFA'd today....


Pitching
Last First IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 HR/F %GB BABIP ERA FIP OPSa BsR BsR/G RAR FIPRAR
Harang Aaron 35.0 7.5 1.8 1.3 13% 37% 0.216 2.83 3.69 0.637 12.7 3.27 10.3 6.6
Cueto Johnny 26.3 9.9 1.0 1.7 17% 39% 0.180 3.42 3.44 0.587 8.5 2.90 8.8 5.7
Volquez Edinson 15.3 9.4 5.3 0.0 0% 51% 0.308 1.17 2.71 0.573 4.2 2.49 5.8 4.5
Cordero Francisco 8.0 10.1 6.8 0.0 0% 29% 0.176 1.13 3.04 0.418 1.1 1.26 4.8 1.7
Lincoln Mike 8.7 7.2 1.0 0.0 0% 54% 0.259 3.12 1.78 0.487 1.7 1.73 3.1 2.6
Mercker Kent 5.7 4.7 3.2 1.6 19% 38% 0.133 3.18 5.13 0.606 1.9 3.00 1.2 -0.4
Affeldt Jeremy 6.7 13.4 4.0 1.3 32% 71% 0.286 2.70 3.18 0.661 2.7 3.68 0.9 0.9
Burton Jared 10.7 15.1 2.5 1.7 19% 56% 0.348 4.22 2.75 0.702 5.2 4.35 0.7 2.0
Coffey Todd 12.3 3.7 2.2 2.2 28% 55% 0.279 5.84 5.87 0.864 7.9 5.79 -1.2 -2.0
Weathers David 7.3 1.2 9.9 0.0 0% 29% 0.300 4.91 6.05 0.817 5.9 7.23 -1.9 -1.3
Arroyo Bronson 21.3 7.6 3.4 2.5 25% 39% 0.313 5.48 5.84 0.954 17.1 7.20 -3.0 -1.1
Fogg Josh 11.0 7.4 4.1 3.3 25% 39% 0.324 13.09 7.10 1.116 11.8 9.69 -4.6 -2.1
Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Overall, the Reds pitchers' base runs total is 81, five shy of their actual total--so by linear weights (82 runs scored) and base runs (81 runs allowed), they're a 0.500 team.....Not much change at the top--Harang, Cueto, Volquez, and Cordero continue to be the standouts.....Jared Burton's FIP is light years better than his ERA--check out the strikeout rate & GB%.....One has to think that the absurdly-high home run rates of Affeldt, Coffey, and especially Arroyo will stabilize at some point...but then again, Coffey did that all last year.....Weathers finally got himself a strikeout, but one has to wonder how he'll be when he returns from the DL.....Fogg justifiably pitched his way out of the rotation, but he might be adequate as a long man...

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.