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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Playing time forecasts - your Reds knowledge needed!

Tom Tango is collecting playing time forecasts to plug into the Marcel forecasting system. Past research has shown that while objective forecasting systems do a great job of predicting rate stats, communities of fans are much better at forecasting playing time.

Here, Tango's trying to integrate both community playing time forecasts with a basic objective rating system. Together, they might turn out to be the best way of forecasting player performance among competitors in this year's projection showdown competition...despite being the simplest system among all contestants.

If this works, expect that such forecasts could be an annual part of Marcel projections...which means that they will likely be a terrific resource for all of us, be we basement-dwelling wannabes like myself or fantasy baseball players looking for an edge.

So please head over to Tango's site and cast a ballot giving your projections of playing time for our Reds players. I was first for the Reds, but ideally we'd need 30 or more ballots to get a reliable forecast for our team. Boston's already there...