Transaction ketchup: Jared Burton

After the Reds made the deal with the Cubs to get Josh Hamilton, they selected Oakland minor league reliever RHP Jared Burton, 25, with their own rule-5 pick. Burton was an 8th round selection in the 2002 draft. He was primarily a starter in college, but has been a reliever the past two seasons for Oakland. Given that he was a college pitcher, he has not exactly skyrocketed through the minor leagues, most notably spending two seasons in the A+ California league before finally being promoted to AA last year. Recent stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP
2004/OAK-Rk	21.2	6.4	1.7	0.85	0.281	4.15	3.58
2004/OAK-A+	32.0	7.0	5.6	1.69	0.283	4.78	5.95
2005/OAK-A+	55.1	10.9	3.3	0.33	0.299	2.60	2.33
2006/OAK-AA	74.0	8.0	3.3	0.85	0.291	4.14	3.74

In Trent Rosecrans' story, Reds' front office man Scott Nethery claimed that Burton had a 93-94 mph fastball, along with a good slider and cutter. Consistent with those claims, Burton has put up good strikeout numbers over the past three years, along with (generally) low HR-allowed rates. It does appear that he can get a bit wild at times, but generally posts average walk rates. At 25 last season, he was a little bit old to be in AA, but nevertheless performed well. I like him.

It's hard to predict how much that success will translate to success at the major league level, of course, especially when trying to make the jump from AA to a middle relief role in the big leagues. Strikeout rate, especially when accompanied by scout praise for his stuff, would seem to be a better indication of success in the big leagues than a low walk rate, for example. But I think we'll have to see how things go for him in spring training against big league hitters to have any idea about whether he's ready for The Show.

The other question, of course, is whether there's room for him. Coffey, Weathers, Bray, Cormier, Majewski, and Stanton would all seem to be locks for the bullpen. If the Reds go with 12 pitchers, that leaves one open spot, which Burton will compete for along with players like Matt Belisle, Elizardo Ramirez, Brian Shackelford, Mike Gosling, Jon Coutlangus, and Phil Dumatrait. The latter four on that list are all lefthanders, which puts them at a disadvantage given that the Reds already have three lefthanders in their pen. Ramirez is likely going to be starting for either the Reds or the AAA Bats, as I doubt the Reds will want to convert the 24-year old to relief yet after his early success in the starting rotation for the Reds last year.

But Matt Belisle would seem to be a tough guy to beat. Belisle has had good success the past two years out of the pen ( though his peripherals last year were a bit scary--4.2 bb/9 and only 5.8 k/9). Unless someone gets hurt, or Belisle gets tapped for the #5 starter job, I'd be surprised to see Burton make the squad. But, on the other hand, neither of those two conditionals are out of the question, so the guy does have a chance.

Transaction ketchup: Josh Hamilton

The Reds' first rule-5 selection (well, actually, it was the Cubs' selection, who then gave the guy to the Reds in exchange for cash) this past December, Josh Hamilton, is an interesting move, and is one for which it's very difficult to predict the outcome. Hamilton, now 25, was the first overall selection in the 1999 amateur draft by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. First, let's look at his career stats:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA
1999/TB-Rk	251	17%	5%	4.0%	17	85%	0.378	0.593	0.971	0.318
1999/TB-A-	75	19%	1%	0.0%	1	50%	0.213	0.236	0.449	0.155
2000/TB-A	423	17%	6%	3.1%	14	70%	0.348	0.476	0.824	0.276
2001/TB-A	13	23%	15%	7.7%	0	---	0.462	0.727	1.189	0.390
2001/TB-AA	95	23%	5%	0.0%	2	100%	0.221	0.236	0.457	0.158
2002/TB-A+	234	20%	9%	3.8%	10	91%	0.359	0.507	0.866	0.288
2006/TB-A-	55	20%	9%	0.0%	0	0%	0.327	0.360	0.687	0.237

Drafted as a high school outfielder, Hamilton had an extremely successful first year in the Tampa Bay system, hitting 0.347/0.378/0.593 in 236 AB's in rookie ball, along with 17 steals at a very high percentage. He continued to show good advancement in his section year, hitting 0.302/0.348/0.476 in Class-A Charleston. He didn't play much in '01 (perhaps that's when his troubles began?), but again showed steady improvement as a 21-year old in A+ Bakersfield in 2002. Nevertheless, due to charges related to substance abuse, Hamilton missed the 2003, 2004, and 2005 seasons. That's a long, long time to be away.

He returned last year for a few games, hitting an unimpressive 0.260/0.327/0.360 in 50 AB's, but that's far too small a sample to conclude much. Hamilton was a high-average, high-power kind of hitter earlier in his career, but it's anybody's guess how much of that is left...and, even if it is, whether he'd be able to make the absurd transition from A-ball to the major leagues this year as a 25 (going on 26)-year old. ... Though I will say that most serious analysts are extremely skeptical that he'll be able to do anything next year, or perhaps ever.

The fact that he's a Rule-5 selection makes it a reasonable possibility that he might get on the opening day roster by default, except that the Reds are currently sporting a whole lot of outfielders who are competing for those 5 spots: Dunn, Griffey, and Bubba Crosby would seem to be locks, as are Freel and Conine, though the latter two can also play infield positions, so we'll count them as half-time outfielders. That leaves Chris Denorfia as the fifth guy on the list, and he absolutely should be our starting center fielder next year. And, on top of that, Norris Hopper deserves to be in contention for the #5 spot. Hamilton should rank behind all of those guys, though I can certainly imagine him usurping Hopper's spot. But putting him above Denorfia? That'd be ridiculous.

If he doesn't make the squad, there might be a fallback plan for the Reds. There has been speculation that the trade of Brendan Harris to the Rays for a player to be named later would allow the Reds to name Hamilton as the player to be named later and thus send him to the minors. If that works out, this might be the best case scenario for Hamilton, who undoubtedly could use a season (at least) in the minor leagues to get his skills back on track. I'm hopeful that this is what transpires, but we'll have to wait and see.

Edwin Encarnacion crystal ball

John Sickels has posted a Crystal Ball for Edwin Encarnacion. I take these less seriously than PECOTA projections, so maybe we're in the very small pinch of salt range. But nevertheless, Sickels predicts an excellent career for Edwin, playing through age 38, hitting for decent average, good power, and maintaining a good bb/k ratio. I'd probably increase his walk totals slightly while decreasing his HR totals slightly from '08 onward, but I think it's a good projection. I really like that kid.

By comparison, his '07 PECOTA projections are 0.277/0.350/0.482 w/ 20 homers. I actually think he'll top that in terms of power (I'm guessing Sickels' projected 26 is about right for this year), but otherwise it looks right on.

He's a good one, and should have no problems with playing time this year (...at least you'd think so...).
-j

New PECOTA projections are online at BP

Subscribers can access the new '07 PECOTA cards at Baseball Prospectus! PECOTA is, by most accounts (and my experience), the most comprehensive and reliable projection system available. It essentially uses age-adjusted similar players (plus lots of other factors, like ballpark, etc) to project player performance next season, plus other seasons down the road. As with anything like this, you take it with a dash of salt (more than a grain, but still be skeptical). But it's interesting to look at.

Jim Baker ran an article talking about the best rookie prospects for '07, according to PECOTA projections. Joey Votto was listed as the best 1B rookie prospect, with a projected line of 0.284/0.366/0.511 (weighted mean). They project 29 home runs in 630 plate appearances next year!

That's overwhelmingly positive, and frankly I think it's a bit optimistic. Votto rebounded in a big way last year, but he hasn't even played in AAA yet. I think he'd hold his own, but this seems a bit over the top (note: PECOTA also assumes playing time, which is unlikely at least to start the year with Hatteberg *AND* Conine standing in his way). Still, it's nice to hear that he's projecting so well. Similar players to him, by the way, include Carlos Pena, Travis Hafner, Pat Burrell, Hee-Seop Choi, Lance Berkman, Jason Giambi, Kent Hrbek, and Brad Wilkerson. Interesting group.

A few other interesting projections and my comments:

• Homer Bailey: 4.64 ERA in 129 innings, 119 k but 66 bb -- seems reasonable for a 21-year old if he goes AA to MLB this year.
  

• Adam Dunn: 0.267/0.390/0.574 -- nice to see a projected rebound.

• Ken Griffey Jr: 0.275/0.344/0.506 -- PECOTA thinks that he's declining. So do I. But he should still be a productive hitter.

• Kyle Lohse: 4.87 ERA -- Eek. I'm more optimistic about him.

• Bronson Arroyo: 4.40 ERA -- ...Unfortunately, while I'm not quite that pessimistic, that doesn't sound far off to me.

• Chris Denorfia: 0.296/0.365/0.459 -- That also seems quite reasonable. I'm bullish on Chris to have a good year in center field, as long as Narron lets the guy play...which is, of course, not guaranteed.

Transaction Ketchup: Chad Moeller

This is probably one of those transactions that we just shouldn't get worked up about. It shouldn't make much of a difference for the Reds next season, as long as they're being smart. ...

Despite clearing room only days earlier on the 25-man roster by trading away Jason LaRue for peanuts, Wayne Krivsky added 31-year old catcher Chad Moeller to the team via a one-year major league free agent deal.

Moeller had a good pair of years here in hitter-happy Arizona from '02-'03, posting 0.852 and 0.770 OPS's over a total of 344 at bats. But after arriving as part of the Richie Sexson deal for the 2004 season, he hasn't done squat:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	EqA	VORP	PrOPS
2004/MIL	343	21.6%	6.1%	1.5%	0	0.0%	0.265	0.303	0.568	0.195	0.200	-15.0	0.634
2005/MIL	214	22.4%	6.1%	3.3%	0	---	0.257	0.367	0.624	0.207	0.220	-4.2	0.699
2006/MIL-AAA	153	18.3%	9.8%	1.3%	0	0.0%	0.307	0.311	0.618	0.216	---	---	---
2006/MIL	104	25.0%	3.8%	1.9%	0	---	0.231	0.276	0.507	0.173	0.000	-8.4	0.707

While PrOPS is slightly kinder to him, there's just no evidence over the past three years that he can hit. What success he did have previously happened in his 27 and 28-year old seasons in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball (Chase Field of Arizona). Since that time, his walk rate has dropped to nothing, as has his batting average.

Defensively, Krivsky has talked up his ability to "handle the game." He does have a lower-than-average catcher ERA for his career (4.03), so perhaps there's something to that--especially since much of his playing time happened in a hitter's park. But his arm, at least, is subpar, catching only 25.5% of would-be base stealers over his career--and declining every single year since 2001, to a low of 21.4% last year.

So why do we have this guy? I have a hard time believing he'll hit any better than Ryan Jorgensen might if he were called up. Maybe he'll be better defensively, I don't know. But I can come up with two somewhat snide possibilities. One, he was originally signed by the Minnesota Twins in the 1996 draft, and debuted with them in 2000. And two, he hit for the cycle against the Reds in 2004 (one of only 13 doubles & 5 homers he hit that year in 317 AB's).

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he lasts the season. The Reds always have roster size issues, and this year will be no different (e.g. we already have too many outfielders already on the roster). He should be an easy guy to cut.

Arrgh, I'm so behind!

For all my complaining that the Reds haven't been doing what they need to do this offseason, I'm miserably behind in my coverage of their transactions. I have a few non-baseball projects in the works right now, and the semester is just getting started, but nonetheless I'm going to try to work in a post investigating some of the newest Reds--or would-be Reds, for that matter--a few times a week moving forward. After all, spring training is already approaching (it's been a short offseason, eh?), and I need to get back up to speed!

To that end, I'm posting something on Chad Moeller tonight. As I said, I'm behind! :)

Thankful.

I'm feeling very thankful tonight. First of all, I'm very thankful for all of you who stop by and read this blog. I'm thankful for my wife and kid, who put up with the lengthy verbal diatribes about baseball that go along with my writing here (neither of them care much for baseball...well, the kid might be starting to show an interest, but I'm just saying that because she put a baseball in her mouth the other day...'course, she puts anything she can get her hands on in her mouth these days). I'm thankful for the Reds baseball team too. Sure, I'm not exactly jazzed about what they've done since oh, July 13th or so. But they had a decent season last year for the first time in a while, and probably won't be awful next year.

But most of all, I'm thankful that I've never put my picture up on this website. Because it might have turned out something like this:
Welcome aboard, Trent! Looking forward to an entertaining season. And for the love of all that is good and holy, get down to your creative department tomorrow and get a new picture taken!