Luck was a strange beast for Shackelford last year: in AAA he was extremely unlucky, as is evidenced by his 0.333 BABIP, which largely drove his very high ERA there (compare that to his FIP/PERA, which are both based on peripherals). With the Reds, however, he was extremely lucky. He had a 0.224 BABIP (amazingly low, almost always due to luck), and his FIP and PERA were in the mid-4 range. I think he's likely to be a bit better than his projections indicate, and he'll be at the top of the list should we need a pitcher (particularly a left hander) up in Cinci. He is starting to get up there in age (29), but the guy's only been pitching full time since '01 when he converted from a 1B (though he did both pitch and hit at the University of Oklahoma). I'm sure we'll see him again this year.