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Thursday, March 30, 2006

Bergolla, Kata, and Shackelford sent down

As Marc reported, Brian Shackelford, Matt Kata, and William Bergolla were optioned to Louisville today. Kata and Bergolla are not a surprise, and frankly neither is Shackelford despite comments I've seen from fans. Here are his stats/projections:

Year/Team IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP PERA VORP GB%
2003/A+ 27.3 6.6 2.6 0.33 0.205 1.98 3.09 5.47 4.4 ---
2003/AA 20.0 8.6 6.3 1.35 0.359 6.30 5.35 9.00 -8.2 ---
2003/AAA 15.7 5.7 4.0 0.00 0.288 2.29 3.26 4.20 3.3 ---
2004/AAA 73.0 7.8 5.2 0.74 0.263 3.58 4.27 5.35 10.0 --
2005/AAA 32.7 5.8 2.8 0.28 0.333 5.23 3.23 4.18 0.1 57%
2005/CIN 29.7 5.2 2.7 0.61 0.224 2.43 4.45 4.40 9.1 45%
PECOTA75 42.0 5.6 4.1 1.07 0.283 4.16 4.87 4.79 4.8 47%
PECOTA 36.0 5.5 4.3 1.25 0.299 5.06 5.20 5.55 0.5 48%
PECOTA25 32.3 5.3 4.5 1.67 0.324 6.64 5.92 6.94 -5.9 49%
ZIPS 62.0 6.4 4.6 0.87 0.283 4.94 4.59 --- --- ---

Luck was a strange beast for Shackelford last year: in AAA he was extremely unlucky, as is evidenced by his 0.333 BABIP, which largely drove his very high ERA there (compare that to his FIP/PERA, which are both based on peripherals). With the Reds, however, he was extremely lucky. He had a 0.224 BABIP (amazingly low, almost always due to luck), and his FIP and PERA were in the mid-4 range. I think he's likely to be a bit better than his projections indicate, and he'll be at the top of the list should we need a pitcher (particularly a left hander) up in Cinci. He is starting to get up there in age (29), but the guy's only been pitching full time since '01 when he converted from a 1B (though he did both pitch and hit at the University of Oklahoma). I'm sure we'll see him again this year.
-j