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Tuesday, March 21, 2006

Reds fare poorly in projections for '06

SG ran a set of Diamond Mind simulations based on three sets of projections (ZIPS, PECOTA, and Diamond Mind) over at the Replacement Level Yankees weblog. Unfortunately, things looked bad for the Reds in all projections.
  • Diamond Mind: 6th place, 73-89, 744 runs scored, 820 runs allowed, made playoffs 1% of the time
  • PECOTA: 6th place, 74-88, 785 runs scored, 854 runs allowed, made playoffs 2% of the time
  • ZIPS: 6th place, 69-93, 751 runs scored, 864 runs allowed, made playoffs 0% of the time. The only other team to never make the playoffs were the Kansas City Royals.
These sorts of things should be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but it's terrifying to think of what we may be in for this year.

One final tidbit from SG's article:

- These do not include the Brandon Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena trade, which looks to be about a one win upgrade for Boston based on Pena's expected role, and a 2-3 win upgrade for Cincinnati on a smaller set of 100 that I ran upon hearing about the trade. Boston scored about 15 more runs with Pena but gave up 5 more. Cincinnati gave up about 25 fewer runs per season, so I guess Brandon was a good pickup for them after all.
Adding 2-3 wins is only good enough to move us into a tie for 5th place in one of the three simulations, unless, of course, those wins come against the projected 5th place team (either PIT or HOU).

Buckle up boys and girls, it could be a bumpy ride.
...I just realized I have now linked to a Yankees fan site blog. So if you folks don't stop back, I'll completely understand.