Division Wild Card OverallThis table leaves out the second-most likely wild-card team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, at 19%.
Padres 27.2% 36.8% 63.9%
Phillies none 14.5% 14.5%
Giants 3.4% 10.3% 13.8%
Astros 10.7% 2.4% 13.0%
Reds 8.0% 4.6% 12.6%
Marlins none 7.4% 7.4%
Braves none 2.1% 2.1%
A 12.6% chance of making the playoffs isn't insignificant, but it's not very compelling either. Nevertheless, the most interesting thing about this graph is that it indicates that the Reds' best chance for a post-season berth is to catch the Cardinals.
It'd be tough, but let's break down the numbers. The Cardinals have 20 games remaining to the Reds' 19. If the cards split their remaining games, they'll end the season at 85-77. For the Reds to top that record, they would have to go 15-4 (0.789). By comparison, in their best month of the season, April, the Reds went 17-8 (0.680).
So it's likely going to take one heck of a surge for the Reds to catch a 0.500-Cardinals team. It's possible, however, that the Cards could play less than 0.500 ball. None of their remaining games (Astros, Giants, Padres, and Brewers) are against complete-pushover teams. And 10 of the Reds' remaining 19 games are against either the Cubs or the Pirates.
So I'm not going to completely give up hope. Nevertheless, perhaps the more immediate concern should be whether the Reds finish above 0.500 at the end of the season. They're currently a game under. It would be a real shame to have this season go down as a losing season, especially after all the strides forward the Reds made this year. Hopefully, the Reds will get hot and salvage something from what has easily been the most enjoyable season this millennium--even if it doesn't turn out to be a playoff spot.
Interesting. I was just looking at the remaining schedules for each of the teams the Reds need to be concerned about, and see the Reds have a couple things going for them and a few against them.
ReplyDelete1. The Phillies and the Marlins play each other 6 more times. It's going to be difficult for either team to make up ground when they have to play each other so many times.
2. The Marlins play the Mets 6 more times in addition to the Phillies, the Braves, and the Reds. Marlins aren't going to make it with a schedule like that.
3. The Asstros and the Deadbirds meet 6 more times, which will either make it difficult to take over St. Louis or will make it difficult to keep Houston down in the WC standings.
4. St. Louis plays Milwaukee 7 more times, which makes it difficult for the Reds to make up ground in the Division race since Bill Hall is Jo Schmo against the Deadbirds. The rest of the games are against Houston, San Francisco, and San Diego, so it may be extremely difficult to make up ground in either race since every game St. Louis plays outside of the Milwaukee ones impacts both races.
5. I hate the Deadbirds and the Asstros more than spoiled milk.
Given how many other teams are out there in the mix for the wild card, I'm going to root against the Cards in every game from here on out. I think the wild card is essentially over...unless the Reds sweep the Padres this week.
ReplyDeleteAnd since that's about to start: Go Reds!