Transaction catch-up: Bobby Livingston

On December 14, the Reds claimed LHP Bobby Livingston off of waivers from Seattle. There was a minor controversy over the claim, but nonetheless, he is now a Cincinnati Red. Let's take a look at what we got.

Livingston was drafted in the 4th round out of Trinity Christian high school in Lubbock, Texas, in 2001, and has steadily risen through Seattle's minor league system, almost exclusively as a starter. Last year he came up to appear in three games, none of them starts. Nevertheless, Krivsky indicated that Livingston has a chance to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation in spring training.

Recent stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/SEA-A+	186.7	6.8	1.4	0.72	0.291	3.57	3.22	4.84	11.1	--
2005/SEA-AA	116.3	6.0	2.1	0.54	0.262	2.86	3.34	4.18	18.5	51%
2005/SEA-AAA	51.7	7.1	2.6	0.35	0.309	4.70	2.99	3.44	-1.5	49%
2006/SEA-AAA	135.3	4.6	2.4	1.20	0.304	4.59	4.71	5.45	0.6	46%
2006/SEA	5.0	5.4	10.8	3.60	0.368	18.00	10.80	11.44	7.7	43%

Livingston seems to be a fairly classic soft-tossing lefty. His strikeout totals have generally been ok in the minors, but the big drop this past year makes sense if he only throws in the 80's. He does seem to have excellent control, however, and, prior to last year, did a great job of keeping the ball in the park. That can be enough to have success, especially if you're a southpaw. Livingston turned 24 on September 3rd of last year, so he certainly has a chance to get better.

While I'm sure Livingston is in the running for the #5 rotation slot, I think the edge at this point certainly has to go to Elizardo Ramirez. Livingston wasn't particularly brilliant in AAA last year, and with this sort of pitcher (poor stuff, good control), I'd certainly like to see some success at that level before inserting him into an important role in the rotation. Compare his performance to Ramirez's, for example, who had a 4.22 ERA in the major leagues through July 27th last season (and eventually came down with shoulder tendinitis after being abused by Narron). I see Livingston as more of an insurance policy for the rotation.

I also don't see him making the bullpen, given that the Reds are already carrying three left-handers (Bray, Stanton, Cormier). Therefore, I think we'll mostly likely see Livingston start the season in AAA, provided we can send him down. He certainly should still have options, so I think that as long as they keep him on the 40-man roster they can ship him back and forth to Louisville as much as we like--similar to what they did with Mike Gosling last year, who was another waiver claim. Please correct me if I'm wrong on that--it'd be a shame to lose this kid before he's ready to be useful.

Better Know a Red #21 - Vern Ruhle

With Vern Ruhle's passing, I thought I'd try to do a retrospective on his playing career. I'm a bit out of my element when evaluating player performance in the '70's and '80's, but I'll give it a try.

The right-handed Ruhle was a 17th-round selection by the Detroit Tigers in the 1972 amateur draft out of Olivet College, Michigan. By today's standards, he advanced very quickly through the minor leagues, making his major league debut in this third professional season at 21 years old. In 1975 he began his first full season with the Tigers. He performed well as a rookie, going 11-12 with a 4.03 ERA in 190 innings (100 ERA+) that season, ultimately becoming the Tigers' #2 starter behind Mickey Lolich that year. He put up a similar year his second season with Detriot (9-12, 3.92 ERA in 199.7 innings), but faltered badly in 1977 (3-5, 5.70 ERA in 66.3 innings), which ultimately led to his release.

Ruhle immediately found a home with the Houston Astros in 1978, but seemed to be used as a spot starter and long man out of the bullpen for several years. In 1980 and 1981, however, he secured a larger role in the rotation of the back to back Houston playoff teams along with fellow pitchers Nolan Ryan, Joe Niekro, and (in 1981) Don Sutton. Other players on those teams included Joe Morgan, Cesar Cedeno, Jose Cruz, Art Howe, and Bruce Bochy.

Ruhle started a playoff games in both 1980 and 1981 performed well both years, despite facing two formidable opposing pitchers. In 1980, he started Game 4 against Steve Carlton of the Philadelphia Phillies and held them scoreless through seven innings, but allowed three consecutive singles to start the 8th inning, all of which would score. While the Astros rallied to tie the game in the bottom of the 9th, absolving Ruhle of the loss, the bullpen yielded two runs in the 10th inning to lose the game 5-3.

In 1981, Ruhle faced off against Fernando Valenzuela in game 4 of the NL Divisional series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ruhle was excellent, going eight innings and allowing only 2 runs on 4 hits. Unfortunately, Valenzuela didn't allow a run until the 9th inning, defeating the Astros 2-1.

Following the 1981 season, Ruhle's role gradually shifted from the rotation to the bullpen, where he remained effective for the remainder of his career. His final season was with the 1986 AL-West Champion California Angels. Ruhle did get a final appearance in the playoffs that season, throwing two-thirds of an inning and allowing two runs. Fortunately, luck finally was kind to Ruhle in the postseason, as the Angels rallied for three in the 9th and one in the 11th for a 4-3 win against the Boston Red Sox--who, of course, would go on to win the league championship series and then catastrophically fail in the World Series vs. the Mets (edited--thanks to Ken for the correction!).

Here are his career MLB stats:

Year/Tm	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA+	WARP3
1974/DET	33.0	2.7	1.6	0.3	0.283	2.73	3.62	140	0.9
1975/DET	190.0	3.2	3.1	0.8	0.270	4.03	4.79	100	3.7
1976/DET	199.7	4.0	2.7	0.9	0.299	3.92	4.50	94	3.6
1977/DET	66.3	3.7	2.0	1.2	0.308	5.70	4.96	76	0.5
1978/HOU	68.0	3.6	2.6	0.0	0.247	2.12	3.33	157	2.4
1979/HOU	66.3	4.5	1.1	1.2	0.253	4.07	4.42	86	0.5
1980/HOU	159.3	3.1	1.6	0.4	0.259	2.37	3.68	138	4.5
1981/HOU	102.0	3.4	1.8	0.5	0.263	2.91	3.82	113	3.1
1982/HOU	149.0	3.4	1.4	0.7	0.297	3.93	4.06	85	0.7
1982/HOU	114.7	3.4	2.8	1.0	0.244	3.69	4.94	93	2.2
1984/HOU	90.3	6.0	2.9	0.5	0.347	4.58	3.65	73	-0.3
1985/CLE	125.0	3.9	2.2	1.2	0.286	4.32	4.77	96	2.8
1986/CAL	47.7	4.3	1.3	0.9	0.255	4.15	4.10	99	0.8

Ruhle seems to have epitomized the finesse pitcher. For his career, he had a superb walk rate of only 1.8 per nine innings. This helped offset his fairly low strikeout totals, and enabled him to be consistently effective throughout his career. By today's standards, his HR/9 rate was also quite low, although I believe that this was closer to average in the period in which he was pitching. Overall, Ruhle was an average to below average pitcher--though one who was consistently effective--for most of his career. He relied on control, guile, and knowledge of how to pitch to be successful despite not having overpowering stuff. It is likely those same traits that made him a successful pitching coach.

Sources:
Baseball Cube
Baseball Reference
Baseball Prospectus
Astros Daily

This sucks.

From Trent:

It is with great sadness that the Cincinnati Reds announce the death of former pitching coach Vern Ruhle, who died at 11:00 p.m. last night at MD Anderson Hospital in Houston of complications from a donor stem cell transplant for the treatment of multiple myeloma.

My condolences to Ruhle's family and friends. For whatever reason, I've been taking a personal interest in this story over the past year. It's such a shame that it ended this way.

If you're interested in learning more about multiple myeloma and its treatment with stem cells, I found that this website gave a nice overview.

FanGraphs to have Real Time Win Probability

I was catching up on some old news at various sites tonight, and noticed that FanGraphs plans to have Real Time Win Probability available for all Major League Baseball games next season. Last season I often posted Win Probability graphs from their site the day following a big game. For example, here's the win probability graph on the last home game of the season, when Griffey won it with a homer in the bottom of the 8th to change a 4-2 loss into a 5-4 win:
What real time win probability will allow us to do is see, in real time, how particular actions on the field affect the probability that the Reds will win games. For example, in the above game, while Norris Hopper's 1-out, 1-on single in the 8th inning brought the Reds' win probability up to 30%, Dave Ross's strikeout that followed it dropped it back down to around 20%'s...and Griffey's subsequent home run shot it all the way up to about 80%.

While it is interesting to look back on these figures now, I think the real excitement of this system will come when we can finally see these probabilities as they happen. It quite literally might change the way I watch baseball next year. Looking forward to seeing how they implement it.

Transaction ketchup: Jared Burton

After the Reds made the deal with the Cubs to get Josh Hamilton, they selected Oakland minor league reliever RHP Jared Burton, 25, with their own rule-5 pick. Burton was an 8th round selection in the 2002 draft. He was primarily a starter in college, but has been a reliever the past two seasons for Oakland. Given that he was a college pitcher, he has not exactly skyrocketed through the minor leagues, most notably spending two seasons in the A+ California league before finally being promoted to AA last year. Recent stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP
2004/OAK-Rk	21.2	6.4	1.7	0.85	0.281	4.15	3.58
2004/OAK-A+	32.0	7.0	5.6	1.69	0.283	4.78	5.95
2005/OAK-A+	55.1	10.9	3.3	0.33	0.299	2.60	2.33
2006/OAK-AA	74.0	8.0	3.3	0.85	0.291	4.14	3.74

In Trent Rosecrans' story, Reds' front office man Scott Nethery claimed that Burton had a 93-94 mph fastball, along with a good slider and cutter. Consistent with those claims, Burton has put up good strikeout numbers over the past three years, along with (generally) low HR-allowed rates. It does appear that he can get a bit wild at times, but generally posts average walk rates. At 25 last season, he was a little bit old to be in AA, but nevertheless performed well. I like him.

It's hard to predict how much that success will translate to success at the major league level, of course, especially when trying to make the jump from AA to a middle relief role in the big leagues. Strikeout rate, especially when accompanied by scout praise for his stuff, would seem to be a better indication of success in the big leagues than a low walk rate, for example. But I think we'll have to see how things go for him in spring training against big league hitters to have any idea about whether he's ready for The Show.

The other question, of course, is whether there's room for him. Coffey, Weathers, Bray, Cormier, Majewski, and Stanton would all seem to be locks for the bullpen. If the Reds go with 12 pitchers, that leaves one open spot, which Burton will compete for along with players like Matt Belisle, Elizardo Ramirez, Brian Shackelford, Mike Gosling, Jon Coutlangus, and Phil Dumatrait. The latter four on that list are all lefthanders, which puts them at a disadvantage given that the Reds already have three lefthanders in their pen. Ramirez is likely going to be starting for either the Reds or the AAA Bats, as I doubt the Reds will want to convert the 24-year old to relief yet after his early success in the starting rotation for the Reds last year.

But Matt Belisle would seem to be a tough guy to beat. Belisle has had good success the past two years out of the pen ( though his peripherals last year were a bit scary--4.2 bb/9 and only 5.8 k/9). Unless someone gets hurt, or Belisle gets tapped for the #5 starter job, I'd be surprised to see Burton make the squad. But, on the other hand, neither of those two conditionals are out of the question, so the guy does have a chance.

Transaction ketchup: Josh Hamilton

The Reds' first rule-5 selection (well, actually, it was the Cubs' selection, who then gave the guy to the Reds in exchange for cash) this past December, Josh Hamilton, is an interesting move, and is one for which it's very difficult to predict the outcome. Hamilton, now 25, was the first overall selection in the 1999 amateur draft by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. First, let's look at his career stats:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA
1999/TB-Rk	251	17%	5%	4.0%	17	85%	0.378	0.593	0.971	0.318
1999/TB-A-	75	19%	1%	0.0%	1	50%	0.213	0.236	0.449	0.155
2000/TB-A	423	17%	6%	3.1%	14	70%	0.348	0.476	0.824	0.276
2001/TB-A	13	23%	15%	7.7%	0	---	0.462	0.727	1.189	0.390
2001/TB-AA	95	23%	5%	0.0%	2	100%	0.221	0.236	0.457	0.158
2002/TB-A+	234	20%	9%	3.8%	10	91%	0.359	0.507	0.866	0.288
2006/TB-A-	55	20%	9%	0.0%	0	0%	0.327	0.360	0.687	0.237

Drafted as a high school outfielder, Hamilton had an extremely successful first year in the Tampa Bay system, hitting 0.347/0.378/0.593 in 236 AB's in rookie ball, along with 17 steals at a very high percentage. He continued to show good advancement in his section year, hitting 0.302/0.348/0.476 in Class-A Charleston. He didn't play much in '01 (perhaps that's when his troubles began?), but again showed steady improvement as a 21-year old in A+ Bakersfield in 2002. Nevertheless, due to charges related to substance abuse, Hamilton missed the 2003, 2004, and 2005 seasons. That's a long, long time to be away.

He returned last year for a few games, hitting an unimpressive 0.260/0.327/0.360 in 50 AB's, but that's far too small a sample to conclude much. Hamilton was a high-average, high-power kind of hitter earlier in his career, but it's anybody's guess how much of that is left...and, even if it is, whether he'd be able to make the absurd transition from A-ball to the major leagues this year as a 25 (going on 26)-year old. ... Though I will say that most serious analysts are extremely skeptical that he'll be able to do anything next year, or perhaps ever.

The fact that he's a Rule-5 selection makes it a reasonable possibility that he might get on the opening day roster by default, except that the Reds are currently sporting a whole lot of outfielders who are competing for those 5 spots: Dunn, Griffey, and Bubba Crosby would seem to be locks, as are Freel and Conine, though the latter two can also play infield positions, so we'll count them as half-time outfielders. That leaves Chris Denorfia as the fifth guy on the list, and he absolutely should be our starting center fielder next year. And, on top of that, Norris Hopper deserves to be in contention for the #5 spot. Hamilton should rank behind all of those guys, though I can certainly imagine him usurping Hopper's spot. But putting him above Denorfia? That'd be ridiculous.

If he doesn't make the squad, there might be a fallback plan for the Reds. There has been speculation that the trade of Brendan Harris to the Rays for a player to be named later would allow the Reds to name Hamilton as the player to be named later and thus send him to the minors. If that works out, this might be the best case scenario for Hamilton, who undoubtedly could use a season (at least) in the minor leagues to get his skills back on track. I'm hopeful that this is what transpires, but we'll have to wait and see.

Edwin Encarnacion crystal ball

John Sickels has posted a Crystal Ball for Edwin Encarnacion. I take these less seriously than PECOTA projections, so maybe we're in the very small pinch of salt range. But nevertheless, Sickels predicts an excellent career for Edwin, playing through age 38, hitting for decent average, good power, and maintaining a good bb/k ratio. I'd probably increase his walk totals slightly while decreasing his HR totals slightly from '08 onward, but I think it's a good projection. I really like that kid.

By comparison, his '07 PECOTA projections are 0.277/0.350/0.482 w/ 20 homers. I actually think he'll top that in terms of power (I'm guessing Sickels' projected 26 is about right for this year), but otherwise it looks right on.

He's a good one, and should have no problems with playing time this year (...at least you'd think so...).
-j