Offseason Plans

With the Reds officially being eliminated by a St. Louis win this afternoon over the Brewers, it's time to look towards the offseason. I have a number of events planned for the winter, so expect relatively frequent updates. Here's a (somewhat vague--don't want to get scooped) sampling of some of the things on my to do list:

• The September/October Reds Review (look for it mid-next week)
  
• Various Reds 2006 Season-In-Review activities.
• General investigations of baseball statistics.
• Updates to some of my previous articles.
• A really cool project that Joel and I have been working on since, oh, May....(that's what happens when two guys both have kids within a few weeks of each other).
• The Better Know a Red series, which I plan to start up again about the time pitchers and catchers report.
• And finally, as usual, I'll have analysis on all new player acquisitions this offseason.

I'm looking forward to it!

And so begins the end (of the regular season)

Last series of the year starts tonight. Here are the possible final records for the team, based on what happens in this series with the Bucs:

Sweep the Pirates: 82-80 (0.506)
Win 2 of 3: 81-81 (0.500)
Win 1 of 3: 80-82 (0.494)
Swept by Pirates: 79-83 (0.488)

Ok, now I'm trying to figure this out, so correct me if I'm wrong (update: I've modified the following AGAIN based on the comments -- thanks folks, you people rock!). For the Reds to make the playoffs, I believe that following must occur:

• The Cardinals must either:
• lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. The Reds would have a better record than the Cards in that case.
  
• or, lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brew Crew, and the Reds win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates. This will force the Cardinals to make up the previously postponed September 17th game vs. the Giants. If they lose that game, the Reds would force a single-game playoff with the Cards to determine the division champion.
• or, lose 2 of 3 of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. Again, this would force the make-up game, which the Cards must lose to net the Reds a single-game playoff.
  
• AND The Astros must either:
• Lose all of their remaining games, in which case the Reds must win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates to tie them and force a one-game playoff.
  
• Lose all of their remaining games, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. This would put the Reds ahead of the 'Stros.
• or, Lose 2 of their 3 remaining games, in which case the Reds must sweep the Pirates to force a tie.
  

So, in sum, the Reds must win this final series to have any shot at the playoffs. If they sweep, they have a better chance at avoiding a single-game playoff vs. either the Astros or Cards and just winning the division outright. In any case, both the Astros and Cards have to lose their final series for the Reds to advance.

Could the Reds still be a playoff team? Sure, why not? The Reds do have the advantage of playing against the weakest team of the bunch. So go Reds, Braves, and Brewers, and boo on the Pirates, Cards, and Astros! :)

I gotta say, it sure is exciting to still have the playoffs remain a legitimate (though rather remote - BP puts the odds between 0.67% and 0.88%, though that seems rather low to me...) possibility entering the final three-game series of the year.

A trip down memory lane

Tonight, FSN Arizona is doing a rebroadcast of the May 8th, 2001 game of the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. the Cincinnati Reds. I Tivo'd it just to see why they'd be rebroadcasting a Reds game that year -- turns out it's Randy Johnson's 20-strikeout game.

Despite knowing what is going to happen, it's fun to watch this. Here are some interesting tidbits:

• Entering the game, the Reds were 16-15 and the Diamondbacks were 16-16. The Reds would finish 66-96, 5th place in the central thanks to a 100-loss season by the Pirates. The Diamondbacks, of course, would go 92-70 and eventually win the World Series on a bloop single by Luis Gonzalez off of Mariano Rivera.
• Chris Reitsma, then a rookie, was the starting pitcher. He'd pitch wonderfully, going 8 innings and allowing 7 hits, 1 run (earned), 1 bb, 2 k's. He was currently the co-player of the week, and had just been acquired from Boston in the Dante Bichette deal.
  
• Here is the Reds lineup. Apparently it was Bob Boone's salute to the "lefties can't hit Johnson" rule, although to be fair he only sat Deion Sanders and Sean Casey, as Dmitri Young and Ken Griffey Jr. were both hurt. Still, this is a pretty weak lineup. I mean who would bat Sadler and Castro 1-2, two lineup spots that demand above all else high OBP? Oh right, Bob Boone would:
• D Sadler lf
• J Castro 1B (the annoucers mentioned that this was the first time he'd started at 1B since 8th grade)
• B Larkin SS (first time in the #3 hole all season)
  
• A Ochoa RF
  
• A Boone 3B
• R Rivera CF
• P Reese 2B
• K Stinnett C
• C Reitsma P
• It sure was nice to see Barry Larkin again. He didn't get a hit, but had a great battle vs. Johnson in the 4th inning. Saw and fouled off a ton of pitches and ending up losing his bat TWICE in the same at bat trying to connect with those Johnson sliders. The first one had Larkin giving an embarrassed smile to either the Reds dugout or the Diamondbacks catcher (hard to tell). The second one soared past Ronnie Oester in the 3B coaching box. I miss him. Interesting to note that he'd already had 9 errors on the season by this point. That was his season total for the year, however, because he'd only start 15 more games that season due to injuries.
  
• Luis Gonzalez had already hit 16 home runs entering this game. Not a bad first month. He'd hit 57 that year in what was easily his best season.
  
• The Diamondbacks announcer was expressing concern that Randy had a tweak in his lower back during the first inning, as Johnson was seen stretching it a bit between batters. I guess he was ok though, as he ended up going 9 innings and striking out 20. :) In the process, he tied and then passed the Bob Gibson for 11th on the all-time strikeout list. Didn't get the win, though as the game ended up going 11 innings.
• The conclusion of the game? After the Reds scored 2 runs in the top of the 11th, Danny Graves came on to close it out. Here's the retrosheet play-by-play on that last half-inning:

• DIAMONDBACKS 11TH: GRAVES REPLACED RIEDLING (PITCHING); Bell
  singled; Gonzalez singled to left [Bell to second]; Sanders
  forced Bell (pitcher to third) [Gonzalez to second]; Grace
  doubled [Gonzalez scored, Sanders scored]; DELLUCCI BATTED FOR
  MILLER; Dellucci was walked intentionally; Colbrunn struck out;
  Counsell walked [Grace to third, Dellucci to second]; WILLIAMS
  BATTED FOR BROHAWN; Williams walked [Grace scored, Dellucci to
  third, Counsell to second]; 3 R, 3 H, 0 E, 3 LOB.  Reds 3,
  Diamondbacks 4.

• Walked in the winning run, eh? Seems eerily prophetic to Graves' 2005 season.
• Finally, there was an ad for "smellypukinghabit.com" in the rotating advertisement box behind the pitcher-batter camera in the 4th inning. What the heck? And no, it's not a registered domain, or I'd provide a link.
  

Thanks to Retrosheet for allowing me to dig around the 2001 season for a while. I should support their site a bit more by taking advantage of their brilliant database more often. Maybe this offseason...

They must be reading my blog

Just over a month since I debuted my old school Mr. Red logo (see above-right), the Cincinnati Reds have decided to follow suit. I'm all for the change, as I think old school Mr. Red is way cooler than the 80's-vintage Mr. Red. Though I can't help but feel a bit of regret, as I'm not quite as unique now.

What I want to know is whether Mr. Red, the mascot (seen below with Marge), will get the kickin' mustache next year. Surely that'd make him cooler than Gapper, no?

The Greatness of Junior

I'm sick at home today, but in between naps I managed to watch the Reds/Cubs game on TiVo. After the first inning, I quite nearly gave up on the game. But fortunately, the fact that I could barely get up off the couch, and the fact that this is the last Reds game I'll have a chance to see on TV this season kept me at it.

You can certainly say that I'm happy I did. :) It's been an exciting season, though this past month has been difficult to stomach as the Reds fell out of contention. But Griffey, on a day that Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus announced that he was done for the year, and on the final home game of the season, gave Reds fans everywhere a positive memory to last them through the offseason. In doing so, he tied Reggie Jackson for 10th place on the all-time home run list. It was magic.

I don't know what the winter will bring. Major trades are almost a given, as Krivsky gets his chance to overhaul the team in his first offseason as a general manager. It wouldn't surprise me to see Griffey leaving the team, among others. But Junior's (likely) final swing in 2006 allows me, at least, to close the book on the season with a certain feeling of peace and contentment.

Looking at Johnson and Kim

Watching Saturday's game on TiVo tonight. Not much to say about it right now...the field must have been soaking wet whenever the Reds were playing defense, as we had three guys fumble or throw the ball away on ground balls over the first three innings. But at least I've got a cold Fat Tire in my hand. And I did get to see Brandon Phillips rock the house with a three-run homer.

Anyway, while I'm focusing on Reds baseball, I wanted to take a belated look at Jason Johnson and Sun-Woo Kim.

Jason Johnson

We'll start with Johnson, who was signed to a minor league contract on August 30th. It's been a rough season for Johnson, who started the season in the Cleveland rotation after signing a $3.5 million contract. He was eventually was released due to poor performance, and signed with the Red Sox mid-season, where he continued to implode. With the Reds, he's been used entirely out of the bullpen, though I would not be surprised to see him in the rotation at some point this season. Recent Stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/BAL	189.7	5.6	3.8	1.05	0.301	4.18	4.73	4.85	25.9	48%
2004/DET	196.7	5.7	2.8	1.01	0.301	5.13	4.30	4.35	13.9	51%
2005/DET	210.0	4.0	2.1	0.99	0.281	4.54	4.44	4.63	16.7	54%
2006/BOS-A+	7.0	1.3	0.0	0.00	0.333	5.14	2.91	---	---	---
2006/CIN-AAA	5.0	3.6	1.8	1.80	0.278	9.00	5.60	---	---	---
2006/BOS-AAA	19.0	5.7	2.8	0.47	0.237	3.32	3.57	---	---	---
2006/BOS	29.3	5.5	4.0	0.92	0.352	7.36	4.63	---	---	---
2006/CLE	77.0	3.7	2.6	1.17	0.330	5.96	4.91	---	---	---
2006/CIN	7.0	3.9	0.0	1.29	0.250	2.57	4.20	---	---	---

Coming into this season, there was a lot to like about the 32-year old right-hander. Playing in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, he had strung together two consecutive mid-4's FIP & PERA seasons (his ERA in 2004 was substantially higher than his peripherals indicate it should have been, indicating some bad luck), with good control and above-average HR-allowed rates. Sure, he didn't strike a lot of guys out, but he was a very serviceable #4 guy.

So what happened? The biggest factor seems to be his lowered strikeout rate, which could indicate a drop in velocity...which is not unusual for a 32-year old. His K-rate increased a bit in Boston, although there he completely lost his control. In both cases, his BABIP was a bit higher than normal, though this can happen without any substantial "unluckiness" when pitchers get hit hard -- especially when their K-rates are down. Even so, his ERA's probably were a bit higher than he deserved.

Nevertheless, when he arrived in Cincinnati, I was enthusiastic about the signing. It didn't cost the Reds any more of those Players to be Named Later that they've been distributing around the leagues, and we got a guy with a track record of recent, legitimate success. He's not a Bronson Arroyo or even a Kyle Lohse; he doesn't have their stuff, and, in contrast to those players, Johnson is probably at the tale end of his career at 32. But it was the sort of move that the Reds should be making at that point in the season, as he had a chance to be a solid guy in the rotation over the last month. Of course, the Reds have yet to give him a shot in the role. Best case scenario, I could see Johnson giving us a win or two more in September than we otherwise will have by month's end. Probably wouldn't have made the difference, but I think it would have been a smart move to give him a larger role.

Sun-Woo Kim

The 28-year old Kim was acquired from the Colorado Rockies for "future considerations" on September 5th, which can sometimes mean a minor league player and other times means cash. He has been popping up and down between the majors and the minors since his debut with the Boston Red Sox in 2001. Some recent stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/MTL-AAA	132.3	5.6	3.6	1.22	0.291	5.03	4.92	6.38	-11.1	--
2003/MTL	14.0	3.2	5.1	3.86	0.327	8.36	9.77	9.82	-3.1	44%
2004/MTL	135.7	5.8	3.6	1.13	0.286	4.58	4.76	5.05	4.4	52%
2005/WAS-AAA	49.0	7.0	2.8	0.73	0.278	2.76	3.63	4.75	3.5	50%
2005/COL	53.3	6.4	2.2	1.18	0.287	4.22	4.21	4.33	8.2	40%
2005/WAS	29.3	5.2	2.5	0.92	0.349	6.14	4.19	4.45	-2.4	53%
2006/COL-AAA	124.7	5.1	2.6	1.01	0.308	5.05	4.39	---	---	---
2006/CIN	6.7	5.4	0.0	4.03	0.199	5.40	7.83	---	---	---
2006/COL	7.0	5.1	10.3	2.57	0.469	19.29	9.20	---	---	---

Kim has the adventage of being younger than Johnson. But that doesn't mean he's any good, of course. Kim's best year thus far in his career is undoubtedly his 2004 season with Montreal, where he threw 135.7 innings across 43 appearances, 17 of which were starts. That year, the right-hander showed an average strikeout rate, an average to above-average walk rate, and an average home run rate to produce a thoroughly average season. In other stints across other seasons, he's shown that this is a pretty good read on his abilities, though his walk rate in 2005 was better, showing that he may be capable of slightly better numbers than in 2004...though he'll always be someone who walks a fine line between modest success and catastrophic failure.

Depending on what we end up sending to Colorado for Kim, I'm either indifferent to the deal, or I don't like it. I don't see him as much of an improvement on our rotation (even in its current black-hole state), though I can see him having some modest success as a long reliever.

(as I've written this, the Reds have made two more errors [Phillips and Olmedo], allowed a towering home run to Carlos Zambrano AGAIN, and walked in a run. Glad I've had something else to focus on. But I need another beer. Oops, there goes another error -- Oh EDE, you'd been doing so well...)

August 2006 in Review

Apologies for my delay in releasing this.

Team Record and Stats Through August
Overall Record: 67-67 (0.500; 2nd in NL, 5 games back from Cardinals)
Series Record: 20-12-11
Pythagorean Record: 64-70 (0.477)
Extrapolated Record: 81-81 (0.500)
Record if win half of remaining games (0.500)
Runs Scored: 658 (4.9 r/g; 5th in NL)
Runs Allowed: 687 (5.1 r/g; T-12th in NL)

August Record and Stats
August Record: 12-17 (0.414)
August Series Record: 4-4-1
August Pythagorean Record: 13-16 (0.448)
August Runs Scored: 137 (4.7 r/g)
August Runs Allowed: 153 (5.3 r/g)

The Reds hit a major bump in the road in August, largely due to their poor showings against the Los Angeles and the San Francisco. While the Reds went 11-8 against other teams, the Reds were a woeful 1-9 against the Dodgers and Giants, including a pair of three-game sweeps against Los Angeles to begin and end the month. The Reds also missed a golden opportunity to pull ahead of the Cardinals, going 3-4 against the "Deadbirds" in the final two series of the season against them. By month's end, the Reds had dropped five games off their win/loss record, had fallen 1.5 games farther back against a relatively weak Cardinals team, and had lost their lead in the wild card race.

The blame fell on both the Reds offense and defense. Their runs scored and runs allowed rates were identical to those the Reds' put up in July--and neither was inspring. Only the oddly anemic Reds offense of May put runs on the board at a slower rate this season, while the pitching staff continued to bleed runs at the highest rate of the season. The offense just flat-out underperformed (Kearns, in particular, was badly missed), with Ryan Freel, Adam Dunn, Scott Hatteberg, and Royce Clayton all slumping during the month. In contrast, the Reds' pitching staff suffered several critical injuries in August, including trips to the DL by Gary Majewski, Jason Standridge, Kent Mercker (career ending), Elizardo Ramirez (season ending), and Eddie Guardado (season ending). Furthermore, Brandon Claussen had season-ending surgery.

It's hard to see how the pitching staff had any hope about this volume of injuries, though Wayne Krivsky did his best to restock it via the post-trade deadline acquisitions, including Ryan Franklin, Scott Schoeneweis, Tim Bausher (who has yet to appear with the Reds), and Jason Johnson. In the end, though, it just wasn't possible to replace a #4 starter and three key bullpen pitchers with post-trade deadline deals. Despite their struggles, hope still remained as September began. There was still time to pull even with the Cardinals, and the wild card-leading Padres were only a few games ahead. Nevertheless, it was clear that a lot of things would have to go the Reds' way if they were to make a serious push for the playoffs.

Statistical Hitter of the Month: Brandon Phillips, 0.330 AVG, 0.377 OBP, 0.604 SLG, 14 VORP in August
Honorable Mentions: Edwin Encarnacion, Rich Aurilia

Following a miserable month of July, Brandon Phillips surged back to his early-season form in August by tying the club lead with seven August home runs and leading the team with 64 total bases. This was a huge relief for me. Prior to August, I had been very skeptical of Phillips' performance this season because it is such a large departure of what he had done over the past three years. When he started to slump in July, I was starting to wonder if he'd ever come out of it. With his August performance, I'm finally comfortable in believing that Phillips is for real. Phillips may well turn out to be the best acquisition of Wayne Krivsky's career. He plays great defense, hits for excellent power for a middle-infielder, gets on base with a hit-biased OBP, and plays with a youthful enthusiasm that is hard to find. I love him and I hope he is the Reds' shortstop for many years to come.

Impact Hitter of the Month: Dave Ross, 6 HR in 63 AB's, 11 runs, 13 RBI, 91.3% WPA
Honorable Mentions: Rich Aurilia, Edwin Encarnacion

After missing most of July with an injury, Dave Ross picked his season back up to its insanely high levels with another superb month of August. Unlike Phillips, I think Ross is having his career year, but it sure has been fun to watch. His biggest game of the season was probably the Reds' most exciting game of the season: August 9th, 2006. It was the third of four games in the Reds' last home series against the Cardinals. The two teams had split the first two games, and the Reds needed to win the next two games to close the 3.5 game Cardinals lead in the Central. The Cards scored 4 runs in the first and added three more runs over the game, leading the Reds 7-6 going to the bottom of the ninth. Closer Jason Isringhausen was on the hill to close out the game. Javier Valentin led off the inning by striking out, but Rich Aurilia worked a 1-out walk to bring up Ross, who had entered the game as a pinch hitter in the 7th. Ross responded by hitting an enormous home run to straight-away center field, bouncing it off the roof of the Great American Ballpark batter's eye. The Reds won the game 8-7, and looked like they might just have what it takes to beat the Cardinals for the division championship. It was a good night to be a Reds fan.

Statistical Pitcher of the Month: Kyle Lohse, 32.3 innings, 2.78 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 29/8 k/bb, 11.9 VORP in August
Honorable Mentions: David Weathers, Aaron Harang

When we acquired Lohse, I was reasonably high on him, noting that "in two of the previous three years, he maintained a VORP near 30, which is more than anyone else in our rotation can say." I predicted that he'd allow roughly 4.5 runs per nine innings, which would be a great contribution from what was then thought to be the fifth spot in our rotation. I never expected he'd have an August like he did. In a month when Harang, Arroyo, and Milton sported ERA's of 4.26, 4.78, and 4.50, Lohse was our best pitcher in August. He started five games and, even though he only won one game, he had three quality starts in four tries after his initial 5-inning "stretch-him-out" starting debut. He won't keep this up, but I expect him to be a solid #4 for us for the rest of this year, and next.

Impact Pitcher of the Month: David Weathers, 14 appearances, 1.84 ERA, 4 holds, 1 save, 152.4% WPA in August
Honorable Mentions: Kyle Lohse, Scott Schoeneweis

Err... wha?? That's right, David Weathers, target of more calls for a DFA than any other player over the course of this season by the members of the blogosphere (myself included, in my July review), had the largest impact on winning of any player on the Reds team in August -- hitter or pitcher -- according to fangraphs.com's Win Probability Added statistics. Weathers appeared in 14 games, and allowed runs in only one of those games -- the Reds' 13-1 loss to the Cardinals on on August 7th. Aside from that game, he has been the model of consistency, netting 152.4% WPA (the equivalent of roughly three full wins). There was no more reliable pitcher in the Reds bullpen in August than David Weathers. It's good to see the guy doing well. Hopefully he can help keep the bullpen together over what's left of this past month.

Other Reds Notes:

• If you've ever wanted to see a case of how a bad half-month can completely negate an otherwise solid season, look no further than Elizardo Ramirez. Thanks in part (and only in part) to some ridiculous misuse by Jerry Narron, Ramirez imploded, allowing 17 earned runs in 8 innings (19.13 ERA), striking out 5, while walking 9. He lost three games and "earned" -146.6% WPA, setting him at -175% on the season--the worst on the ballclub (yes, even worse than Joe Mays or Dave Williams). His VORP dropped to zero from its previous 13.5 runs as well. Yikes. Despite his final few games, I was impressed by Ramirez this year. I hope he pitches well enough next spring to earn the #5 rotation slot once again, because I still think he can be a very good #4 (with a ceiling as a #3) starter for us over the next 5 years. Remember, the kid's only 23.
  

• What happened to Adam Dunn in August? After an outstanding month of July (0.451 OBP, 0.573 SLG, 118.3% WPA), Dunn run into a wall in August, hitting only 0.188/0.284/0.416. With the excellent August performances by Phillips, Encarnacion, Aurilia, and Ross, as well as a decent month by Junior, it's hard to place the blame for the Reds' lackluster offensive run production on anyone but Adam Dunn. The Reds need him to hit well in order for their offense to work. Given his typical production levels, it's been a pretty disappointing season for the big guy. I have to wonder if he's just getting tired--Dunn has played 160 or more games in each of the last two seasons, and won't be far from that by this season's end.
  
• Quick rundown of bullpen pitchers, comparing ERA to FIP:
• Bill Bray and Todd Coffey looked much better in August than their ERA's indicated. I look for them to continue to pitch well because of this.
  
• In contrast, Scott Schoeneweis, Rheal Cormier, and Ryan Franklin all had FIP's over 6, despite their respectable ERA's. We'll see what happens with them...
  

• To end on a high note, Edwin Encarnacion, runner up for both my statistical and impact hitter of the month awards in August, won the National League Player of the Week award for August 7-13 due to a brilliant performance. Edwin continues to hit as well, if not better than I'd hoped he would this year. And perhaps even more importantly, his defense has really improved of late as well -- as I write this, Edwin has gotten his fielding percentage up over the 0.910 mark. It won't be a banner year for him defensively, but the kid's improving and should be ready for a permanent place in the 3-5 slots in the batting order next year. And it's a good thing too, as we don't really have any other legitimate right-handed options.
  

Reds August Hitting Stats:
*Apologies for some of the missing VORP values -- I neglected to grab a few at the beginning of the month from BP.

Player	PA	K%	BB%	HR%	SB/%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	VORP	WPA%
Ken Griffey	125	17.6%	12.0%	4.0%	0/0%	0.392	0.500	0.892	0.301	8.7	-35.4%
Ryan Freel	124	20.2%	12.1%	0.0%	8/67%	0.325	0.275	0.600	0.215	-5.3	-37.7%
Adam Dunn	114	34.2%	11.4%	6.1%	0/0%	0.284	0.416	0.700	0.232	-5.7	-41.5%
Phillips	112	14.3%	5.4%	6.3%	2/100%	0.377	0.604	0.981	0.321	14	19.4%
Hatteberg	110	10.9%	12.7%	3.6%	1/100%	0.336	0.375	0.711	0.245	-0.4	-9.0%
Encarnacion	108	16.7%	6.5%	6.5%	1/33%	0.378	0.614	0.992	0.324	11.7	51.7%
Rich Aurilia	85	5.9%	5.9%	5.9%	0/0%	0.337	0.538	0.875	0.286	9.7	61.1%
David Ross	75	26.7%	16.0%	8.0%	0/0%	0.364	0.587	0.951	0.311	7.1	91.3%
Royce Clayton	70	20.0%	2.9%	2.9%	1/100%	0.257	0.353	0.610	0.204	---	-9.5%
Valentin	31	19.4%	0.0%	12.9%	0/0%	0.290	0.677	0.967	0.300	---	19.1%
Hollandsworth	28	32.1%	10.7%	0.0%	0/0%	0.321	0.280	0.601	0.214	-1.5	-42.0%
Jason LaRue	23	26.1%	4.3%	4.3%	0/0%	0.125	0.182	0.307	0.102	---	-66.2%
Juan Castro	22	13.6%	13.6%	0.0%	0/0%	0.364	0.316	0.680	0.243	0.3	44.0%
Chris Denorfia	16	31.3%	6.3%	0.0%	0/0%	0.176	0.067	0.243	0.096	---	-35.1%
Norris Hopper	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0/0%	0.333	0.333	0.666	0.233	0	0.0%

Reds August Pitching Stats:

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	VORP	WPA%
Kent Mercker	2.3	7.8	7.8	0.0	0.290	0.00	4.07	1.3	23.0%
Standridge	0.2	45.0	180.0	0.0	0.000	0.00	53.20	0.3	-12.5%
Shackelford	1.0	0.0	9.0	0.0	0.250	0.00	6.20	0.5	-0.4%
Schoeneweis	6.3	4.3	5.7	1.4	0.159	1.42	6.22	3.9	43.0%
Guardado	5.3	13.6	1.7	1.7	0.503	1.69	3.20	-0.5	-46.1%
Weathers	14.7	8.6	1.2	0.6	0.166	1.84	2.59	6.3	152.4%
Kyle Lohse	32.3	8.1	2.2	0.6	0.313	2.78	2.95	11.9	38.0%
Cormier	11.0	4.1	2.5	2.5	0.317	4.09	6.65	2.6	-53.0%
Aaron Harang	38.0	7.3	2.8	1.4	0.331	4.26	4.57	4.0	-4.6%
Eric Milton	34.0	5.3	2.6	1.9	0.299	4.50	5.58	1.9	-6.2%
Franklin	15.7	4.6	6.9	1.1	0.277	4.60	6.13	1.6	-28.0%
Bill Bray	15.3	8.2	3.5	1.2	0.361	4.70	4.25	-0.7	9.8%
Arroyo	37.7	6.9	3.1	2.1	0.300	4.78	5.80	5.4	2.9%
Michalak	21.0	1.7	3.9	1.7	0.253	5.57	6.58	1.2	-8.0%
Todd Coffey	14.0	7.7	5.1	0.6	0.333	5.79	4.13	0.3	-32.9%
Matt Belisle	5	7.2	3.6	3.6	0.389	7.20	8.00	-1.0	-11.8%
Majewski	4	2.3	4.5	2.3	0.353	11.25	7.45	-2.4	-65.1%
Ramirez	8	5.6	10.1	4.5	0.424	19.13	11.83	-13.5	-146.6%

Milton's elbow

Milton: 0.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 0 K, 0 BB, 2 HR

So I guess we can conclude that the cortizone shot didn't work. Have to wonder if he'll be back this season. Milton has been a real asset to this Reds' team this year. We still overpaid for him, but Milton generally took the ball and gave the Reds a good chance to win in at least two thirds of his outings. If he's hurt--even with a minor injury--we are at that point in the season when there's no point in trying to get him back and risk him causing a greater injury. We need Milton to be ready for next season in the back end of our rotation.

Update: As expected, Eric Milton is done for the season. So our rotation for the rest of the season is: Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, ... and some combination of Michalak, Johnson, Kim, and theoretically Franklin I guess. Ah well, it was fun while it lasted. I just hope the Reds can get back to 0.500 before season's end. The only good news I see is that ~6 more games are on TV over these last few weeks. That's probably a third of the total number of games I've had access to here in AZ all season! :)

Heh, I love fake captions...wait, that's real?

So I just noticed this while reading the recap of today's game:
I think the AP caption writer based in Chicago is ready for the Cubs' season to end... :)