BtB "Sabers" complete

Today we posted the results of the final category in the BtB Sabermetric Awards. This was the first time I've tried to organize anything quite on this level in the sabermetric community, but I'm extremely pleased with how it all went. Hopefully, we can do it again next year. Here are the award result posts:

1. Best Novel Research Article/Project
2. Best Applied Research Article/Project
3. Best Primer or Review Article
4. Best Commentary Article
5. Best Writing/Research Website
6. Best New Online Resource
7. Best Writer/Researcher

Onward to the next project! I still have this minor league thing I want to get finished, and after that it will probably be time to start working up a team projection for the Reds. I'm pleasantly optimistic right now about their chances to top 0.500 this season...

Current activities

I finally finished a post at Red Reporter that I've been working on for almost a month (and planning since September). I'm not sure the result is as fabulous as all of that would imply, but it's an investigation of the degree to which the Reds were hurt by playing time shortfalls in it starters compared to simply failing to perform when healthy. Punchline: aside from Volquez (who accounts for 35% of the overall ~7 WAR shortfall), mostly it was simply a failure to perform.

At BtB, I'm managing the Sabermetric Writing Awards. I thought of the basic idea for the awards while working on my baseball class (more on that in a sec). The BtB crew were very enthusiastic about it when I pitched it to them, and in the internal discussion, the idea expanded from ~3 categories to the 7 we are currently running. Nominations are going pretty well, though I think there is a bias toward stuff done over the past few months. Still, I've already seen a bunch of stuff that I had missed, and that's sort of the main point.

The baseball class, which I announced here, starts on Monday. I'm a bit anxious about it, but I think I'm about as well-prepared for it as I can be, and I'm excited to get started. I'm perhaps naively hoping that the students will follow my obsession in player valuation, but we'll see. First thing I'm going to do is have them pick the topics for the semester. It will probably be the case that this class will be the extent of what I can do baseball-wise for at least the first half of the semester. But one of my classes ends at spring break--just as spring training really gets underway--so that should help.

I also wanted to link to my post on the Hall of Fame ballot from December. It's gotten some decent play (Neyer link, for example), and apparently Sky did something similar at ESPN this week. The one guy I left off of my ballot, Dawson, is the guy who got in--but I have no problem with that. What I do have a problem with is all of the deserving individuals who should have gotten in before Dawson.

BtB Power Ranking Season Reviews

Earlier this week, I completed my season-by-season reviews of all MLB teams. Fun exercise. Here they are:

AL East

AL Central

AL West

NL East

NL Central

NL West

Here's what I wrote about the Reds:

I root for laundry of this color. It was a rough season, but after dwelling in the basement for much of August and early September, a hot-hot-hot streak at the end of the year got them up to 26th place in the rankings and 4th place in the division over the last few weeks. cW% was substantially lower than true W%: 0.441 vs. 0.481. The reason was a slight underestimate of runs scored, and a slight overestimate of runs allowed, plus the fact that even straight-up Pythagoras had the Reds as a bit lucky. This was quite possibly the best fielding team in the National League, but their pitching was just a tad below average. And that, coupled with an offense that flirted with the 0.300 wOBA line for most of the year, spelled disaster. So, for the 9th consecutive season, Reds fans are wondering if next year will be the year they finally win more than they lose again.

And here are the final 2009 Beyond the Box Score Power Rankings. I really enjoyed doing that series this year, even if occasionally was a bit contentious (:cough: Giants :cough:). Very well received, and might go even further next season if we can keep it going. Just need to figure out some strength of schedule adjustments.

Now that I'm done with that series for a while, I have some Reds work I'm planning. Look for a recap of the 2009 season at Red Reporter sometime next week if all goes well. I also have a minor league study about half written up at BtB. Stay tuned...

@BtB: First Basemen WAR Review

Image by Kjunstorm via Flickr

Tonight I posted a WAR review of the most valuable first basemen in MLB history. Pete Rose is the most notable Red to appear--he played 1B more than any other position.

Tony Perez ranks 29th all-time among first basemen, behind Fred McGriff and ahead of George Sisler.

An all-Reds 1B review is underway. :)

@BtB: Value to Fans, Power Rankings

Two new posts over at BtB.

First, I updated my power rankings. The Reds are now ranked last in all of baseball. That freaking sucks--good thing it only matters to my spreadsheet.

Second, I revisited a topic that I've looked at once before: which teams offer the most value to their fans? I look at Fan Cost Index (essentially the cost for a family of four to visit the ballpark--tickets, parking, food, drinks, souviers, etc), and compare it to winning percentage. I also explicitly look at beer cost, because beer is fun.

The Reds come out looking pretty decent this year, even though the team stinks. Based on a regression, their Fan Cost is $33 less than expected, based on team winning percentage. If you use the BtB Power Ranking estimated winning percentage, the Reds' FCI comes out $9 less than expected. Still above-average, though not as much. But then, the Power Rankings aren't kind to our Redlegs.

The Reds' beer is also cheaper than expected, though only by a few cents. Good thing--we need it.

Hat Tip to ctrent for the link to the latest FCI stuff.

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

I updated my power rankings at BtB today. The Yankees are now ranked first. If the Reds fall to 30th and the Yankees stay in first, I'm not sure I'll be able to continue posting these things. :(
-j

@BtB: Historical WAR Review: Catchers

Johnny Bench is thrilled to top the list of most valuable catchers ever according to WAR. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Today, I began a series that I started work on two months ago: a position-by-position WAR review. It's a great opportunity to learn some baseball history, while at the same time exploring Rally's WAR database.

I posted the first in this series at BtB. I'm going to do a simultaneous series here that is specific to Reds players, though I'll probably do top-10 lists instead of top-14 lists...simply because the talent bottoms out faster. Look for that hopefully over the next few days.

Today's review is on catchers, and a familiar name shows up at #1:

As a Reds fan I'm biased, but I think if you were to ask a large number of fans the name of the best catcher ever, Johnny Bench's name would be at the top of the poll. It's not a slam dunk, but Bench comes out four wins above Fisk--and Bench had 1200 fewer PA's and a much higher peak. Bench was a brilliant defender, but probably not the best defensive catcher of all time. And he was a superb hitter, but is probably not the best hitting catcher of all time. What sets him apart is that he was extremely good at both offense and defense: with game-changing defense and prodigious power, he redefined his position. No other catcher has ever hit 45 home runs in a season, and only one other (Mike Piazza) has topped the 40-mark twice. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time MVP (second only to Berra), a 14-time All Star (13 consecutive), and the winner of 10 consecutive gold gloves. He was the best of the best, and I'm proud that he played for my team...it's nice to be proud of something these days.

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

Back from vacation for a few days now, and I think I've already lost the little bit of tan I gained. In typical basement-dweller fashion, I don't much like the sun. Much prefer to be under the umbrella with a good book or binoculars/bird book. But the kids did get some time, and mighty sand-castles were built in Ocean City.

Anyway, I updated the power rankings today. The Reds are basically just sucking these days, but nothing prepared me for this:

I also wanted to take a moment to mourn what's happening with my Reds, who have slipped to second-to-last in the rankings behind the...Nationals. At least Jim Bowden isn't employed over there anymore, though I'm sure that a) he reads this and b) he's gloating. Bastard.

I feel sad about the Reds right now. Fortunately, I have some historical Reds stuff planned in the very near future to get my mind off of this 2009 team. Stay tuned...

@BTB: Power Rankings Updated

We need a hero! Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've updated the power rankings at Beyond the Boxscore this evening. The Reds don't gain or lose any spots (thank goodness Washington sucks too!), though I gave special mention to that loss the other night in the commentary with respect to the Phillies:

The Phillies surged up the rankings this week, largely on the back of their record-breaking ass-kick of my Reds on July 6. Meanwhile, their principle threat for much of the year--the Mets--are in a freefall, losing 9 of their last 11 and falling to 22nd on our list. But wait--the Braves surged this week through the 0.500 teams, picking up seven spots and are now just 3 spots behind the Phillies. The NL East seems as though it's becoming a battle between the Phillies' offense and the Braves' pitching...at least on paper. In reality, the Marlins are in the mix as well, but our rankings don't think that team has played quite as well as their record indicates: they've scored 20 more runs then their wRC would predict.

At least Homer had a nice outing tonight! The K/BB (6/0) is particularly encouraging! Maybe Homer can save us...

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

The Reds need Eddie to come back strong. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've updated the power rankings at BtB.

Not a good week for the Reds. Well, sort of. Their expected winning percentage improved from 0.409 to 0.414. So there's that. But other teams near their spot improved even more, causing the Reds to fall to ...28th in the rankings. Out of 30 teams.

This gives me no pleasure. But this Reds team just hasn't been very good. The fielding's great, and that's nice to see. But the hitting has been horrid, and the pitching is "only" average. I know they're only 4 games out....but unfortunately, unless some pitchers get back on track, and Encarnacion + Votto can carry the offense, I don't know if there's enough here to catch a team like the Brewers.

Do the Rockies have the best pitching in baseball?

Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher I can't remember. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The BtB Power Rankings seem to show it, and Sky gives it another look.

He's right that they aren't the best in MLB. I still think they might be the best in the NL. Here's my (rather disjointed response):

A few things:

1. The Rockies get more of a hand than any other team in with tRA, because we’re using David Gassko’s batted ball park factors (linked here: http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html). Their k-rate, for example, is boosted by a mlb-low park factor of 0.89. Home run per outfield fly correction is similarly high (second-highest in MLB) at 1.22. Virtually everything except walk rates are adjusted in the Rockies’ favor. Coors’ is the best hitters’ park in baseball, though, so you’d expect them to get the most help.

2. If you take their 4.10 FIP and correct for park, where does that put you? I haven’t done it myself, but I’m guessing pretty close to the league lead. You can use 0.89 as a park factor for K’s, 1.00 for BB’s, 0.97 for HBP (all from Gassko), and 1.08 for HR’s (from patriot). … ok, let’s do it:
Raw FIP = (13*67 + 3*(223+20-10) – 2*468)/633 + 3.14 = 4.10
Cor FIP = (13*61 + 3*(223+21-10) – 2*526)/633 + 3.14 = 3.81

That’d tie them for third with SF in FIP (without doing park corrections for those teams). As you said, not the best by this measure, but extremely good.

3. It’s worth mentioning that in addition to the DH issue, I’m not correcting the pitching stats in the power rankings for league difficulty. That gets tacked on at the end (which lets people ignore it if they want to). So yeah, the Rockies aren’t the best in MLB. But they are at least among the top 3-5 staffs in the NL this season.
-j

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

I've updated my Power Rankings at BtB. This week includes some specific discussion of the Reds' plight. ... It's sort of depressing, unfortunately:

It's been a fun season (for once) to be a Reds fan, as the Reds have gone through an amazing transformation this year into a pitching and fielding team, and it's paying off: 3 games back from the league-leading Brewers, and with help on the way in Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion, both of whom appear on the mend. It's been a rough week (the Royals reversed their slide in last week's rankings by sweeping the Reds--and they didn't even need Grienke to do it), but they're still in a great spot at this point in the season and are very much in the hunt.

Unfortunately, the Reds are similar to the Giants in that the power ranking thinks they've been lucky on both offense and defense. The Reds' offense started reasonably well, but this month has spiraled towards atrocious. And unfortunately, our estimates (or rather FanGraphs' estimates, as we're just using their wRC to estimate offense) think they've been lucky by about 13 runs on the season. Similar, our estimated runs allowed is 22 worse than the actual totals, despite the Reds' league-leading fielding and above-average pitching. As a fan, I'm rooting for them. But the power rankings indicate that they've been pretty lucky.

@BtB: Graph of the Day: Players Getting Taller

I did a graph of the day today looking at player heights over the history of baseball. Ballplayers are taller than an average US male, and pitchers are taller than hitters, and always have been. But it looks like MLB players have been distancing themselves from the US male 20-29 population over the past 30 to 40 years.