Jay Bruce is the Opposite of Corey Patterson

Did he actually touch the ground, or did he just glide from base to base?

Tell me if you've heard this one before

The Reds were starting to play better. It looked like maybe, just maybe, they might turn the season around. And then, they went out to the west coast to play the Dodgers. And they got swept.

Three straight years.

I hate losing.

Should the Reds sign Dunn to an extension?

With Dunn playing the hero this afternoon (yay), I've seen people talking again about whether the Reds should give him a contract extension.

The answer, as always, is that "it depends": How much and how many years would it take to extend him?

A nice starting point would be to figure out what a reasonable contract extension for Dunn would look like. I worked that out for someone over e-mail, so I thought I'd post this here as well. I'm using a methodology that is based largely on what folks do over at The Book Blog, though I figure replacement level a tad differently then they do. Their way may well be better, but we usually converge on the same answer, +-0.5 WAR or so.

Here we go:

Projecting Dunn into this and future seasons...

Offense: his 3-year weighted average on offense has been almost exactly 5 wins above replacement (not including 2008 stats).
Defense: last year, I had him as a -1.9 WAR fielder (including throwing arm), which I'll just assume is an accurate representation of his fielding "skill."

So, taking those numbers, and subtracting another 0.5 wins for aging, projects him as a 2.6 WAR player this season (his defense kills his value!). So, looking over the coming years, here's my projected value for him (assuming 10% inflation above this past offseason's $4.4/WAR):

2008: 2.6 WAR, $11.4 million (he actually is making $13 million)
2009: 2.1 WAR, $10.2 million
2010: 1.6 WAR, $8.5 million
2011: 1.1 WAR, $6.4 million
2012: 0.6 WAR, $3.9 million

So, in terms of extensions, I think we can reasonably value Dunn's contract extensions starting in the 2009 season as:
$10m/1yr
$19m/2yr
$25m/3yr
$29m/4yr

I have no way of knowing if he'd take any of those contracts...but my guess is no, because they'd all represent a substantial salary cut compared to what he's making this year. And they're well below the contracts that somewhat comparable players like Carlos Lee signed.

It's also worth noting that becoming a DH doesn't help Dunn. DH's get a -1.5 WAR position adjustment (in lieu of a fielding rating), which recognizes that they're usually terrible fielders. Dunn's fielding rating is -1.9 WAR, including position adjustment...but moving from the NL to the AL probably negates any of that 0.4 "bonus" he'd get by moving to DH. So these contract numbers are probably pretty reasonable.

If he won't take any of those contracts, then the Reds should either trade him or let him walk, depending on whether they can get trade value that is better than the expected value of the two draft picks I'm pretty sure he'd command. I have no way of knowing what GM's would offer for him, but that'd be the criterion I'd use.

Hopefully they'll be able to pick up some other players for more appropriate money in free agency to make up for the lost production. Maybe that'd give Encarnacion a chance to move into the outfield...



Quick breakdown on Griffey, using the same methodology...

Offense: Using a 2-year weighted average (common practice for guys in their late 30's), I have Griffey as 2.8 WAR hitter in 06-07.
Defense: Last year, I had him as a -1.7 WAR fielder, including position adjustment and throwing arm.

So, summing the two, and then subtracting 0.5 wins for aging puts Griffey's projection at 0.6 WAR this season...and effectively zero in 2009. Yikes.

DH doesn't help Griffey either... DH's get a -1.5 WAR position adjustment (in lieu of any fielding rating), while Griffey's working from a -1.7 fielding rating (including position adjustment). The 0.2 WAR bonus is easily negated by moving to the tougher American League.

1990 World Series Game 3

Not sure if anyone is around, but XM Radio is playing the 1990 World Series Game 3 right now. I'm taking measurements on photographs of bug eyes tonight, so this is a nice treat.

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 11 May

This is my weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	22	15	0.595	0.0	205	5.54	153	4.15	24	0.544	96
STL	23	16	0.590	0.0	181	4.63	157	4.03	22	0.545	96
HOU	21	17	0.553	1.5	185	4.87	166	4.37	21	0.556	90
MIL	18	19	0.486	4.0	156	4.23	177	4.79	16	0.576	79
PIT	17	19	0.472	4.5	181	5.02	198	5.50	16	0.579	77
CIN	15	23	0.395	7.5	160	4.22	189	4.98	16	0.605	64

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

The Reds went 3-3 over the past week, thanks to improvements on both offense and defense...still on track for a sub-70 win season, though, which isn't acceptable...at this point it will take better than 0.600 ball over the rest of the season to get to the 90-win plateau, which seems unlikely to me.....St. Louis's pitching took a bit of a hit as the Cubs took over the division lead, if only due to the number of games the two teams have played...somehow, 7.5 games doesn't seem so bad.....Houston continues to outperform expectations, placing themselves now just 1.5 games out of first.....The Brew Crew continue to struggle...fwiw, Pythagoras predicts that Cinci, the Pirates, and the Brewers should all have won 16 games at this point...though the Reds have played the most games of those three teams, so they still rank last overall...

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Encarnacion	Edwin	153	12%	12%	10%	0.252	0.261	0.353	0.500	0.239	0.853	0.867	22.7	6.03	9.7
Phillips	Brandon	152	7%	18%	19%	0.312	0.284	0.329	0.511	0.227	0.840	0.798	22.6	5.82	9.2
Votto	Joey D	115	9%	18%	22%	0.299	0.286	0.348	0.552	0.266	0.900	0.929	18.4	6.43	8.5
Bako	Paul	104	10%	23%	25%	0.379	0.309	0.375	0.532	0.223	0.907	0.837	16.9	6.84	8.4
Keppinger	Jeff S	156	7%	5%	18%	0.331	0.324	0.370	0.430	0.106	0.800	0.750	20.2	5.35	7.2
Dunn	Adam	141	19%	23%	16%	0.237	0.214	0.362	0.411	0.197	0.773	0.904	18.0	5.25	6.2
Freel	Ryan	90	6%	17%	20%	0.377	0.313	0.356	0.386	0.073	0.742	0.641	10.6	4.80	3.0
Griffey Jr.	Ken	156	10%	14%	12%	0.274	0.254	0.333	0.384	0.130	0.717	0.734	16.3	4.12	2.7
Hairston	Jerry	38	3%	8%	29%	0.300	0.294	0.314	0.441	0.147	0.755	0.814	4.8	4.68	1.3
Patterson	Corey	112	7%	10%	15%	0.182	0.196	0.252	0.402	0.206	0.654	0.781	11.2	3.51	0.2
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.1
Ross	Dave	19	5%	37%	18%	0.364	0.222	0.263	0.278	0.056	0.541	0.514	1.2	2.23	-0.6
Hatteberg	Scott	53	13%	9%	22%	0.220	0.205	0.302	0.273	0.068	0.575	0.752	3.8	2.67	-1.1
Valentin	Javier	32	6%	19%	13%	0.250	0.200	0.250	0.233	0.033	0.483	0.561	1.6	1.70	-1.6
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' LWTS sum to 170 runs, which is 10 fewer than they've actually scored (after adjusting for park). Votto had a heck of a week, but hitting three home runs in a game will do that for you.....Griffey might be showing signs of life.....Keppinger's strikeout rate is crazy-low...he had a nice week as well, but having a 5-hit game will do that for you.....Dunn's walk rate has finally dropped below his strikeout rate, which might mean that he's getting more pitches to hit...if he keeps hitting 7th, though, that won't continue.....Corey Patterson now rates as almost exactly in line with a replacement hitter, despite his outstanding start to the season...I didn't expect him to hit a lot, but I expected him to hit more than this.....David Ross hasn't done much since returning from the DL, but he hasn't gotten many opportunities with Bako hitting the way he is...though Bako's 0.370+ BABIP isn't going to last forever.....and neither is Freel's, so he may not be the answer in lieu of Patterson...


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Bako	Paul	C	8.4	3.5	1.6	13.6
Votto	Joey D	1B	8.5	4.4	-1.4	11.5
Phillips	Brandon	2B	9.2	0.4	0.2	9.8
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	9.7	-3.4	0.2	6.5
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	7.2	-2.3	1.1	6.0
Dunn	Adam	LF	6.2	-1.3	-1.2	3.7
Freel	Ryan	CF	3.0	0.1	0.1	3.2
Patterson	Corey	CF	0.2	1.2	0.6	1.9
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	1.5	0.1	-0.3
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-1.1	0.3	-0.5	-1.3
Ross	Dave	C	-0.6	-1.0	0.3	-1.4
Hairston	Jerry	RF	1.3	-3.3	0.1	-1.9
Valentin	Javier	C	-1.6	-1.1	0.4	-2.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	2.7	-4.1	-1.2	-2.7

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds remain 5 runs below average among their fielders.....Quick, without looking at this table, which player has cost the Reds more runs than any other this year? If you said Griffey, you win, at least according to these numbers...I love the guy as a person and as a historical player, but I'm extremely hopeful that the rumors of a trade back to Seattle actually come to pass, as he's killing the Reds this season (and that's without accounting for his poor ability to prevent baserunner advancement, or his ability to run the bases)...a surge by him now on offense would help his trade value immensely.....

Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	42.3	11.1	5.1	0.2	4%	55%	0.281	1.06	2.65	0.543	11.2	2.37	16.9	13.2
Harang	Aaron	55.3	7.6	2.1	0.8	9%	37%	0.274	3.09	3.20	0.657	20.7	3.37	16.0	13.8
Cordero	Francisco	14.0	9.0	6.4	0.0	0%	40%	0.257	1.93	3.26	0.578	4.5	2.89	5.3	2.9
Cueto	Johnny	45.7	9.1	2.2	1.8	16%	35%	0.296	5.91	4.18	0.806	25.5	5.01	4.9	6.4
Affeldt	Jeremy	16.7	11.3	4.3	0.5	9%	60%	0.293	2.70	2.76	0.607	5.9	3.16	3.4	3.2
Lincoln	Mike	17.0	5.8	2.1	1.6	20%	56%	0.278	5.29	4.64	0.806	9.2	4.85	0.3	-0.3
Mercker	Kent	11.7	4.6	5.4	0.8	7%	35%	0.297	3.86	4.91	0.792	6.4	4.96	0.1	-0.5
Burton	Jared	16.0	12.4	2.8	1.7	16%	48%	0.372	4.50	3.54	0.823	10.4	5.83	-1.5	1.7
Weathers	David	10.3	4.4	7.0	0.0	0%	35%	0.333	3.48	4.48	0.810	7.6	6.66	-1.9	0.0
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	5.98	0.879	10.4	6.14	-1.9	-2.5
Bray	Bill P	5.0	10.8	5.4	0.0	0%	44%	0.500	5.40	2.52	0.944	5.2	9.29	-2.4	1.1
Belisle	Matt	19.3	4.2	2.3	0.9	9%	47%	0.385	7.45	4.20	0.934	16.2	7.57	-3.4	2.7
Arroyo	Bronson	40.3	8.5	3.3	1.8	18%	36%	0.354	7.14	4.72	0.928	31.7	7.07	-4.9	3.3
Fogg	Josh	22.3	6.9	3.2	2.0	16%	38%	0.320	9.27	5.35	0.923	17.7	7.14	-5.3	-2.1

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Cueto's peripherals continue to look pretty good, though that homer rate (and fly ball rate) are an ongoing concern.....I can't decide if I should be concerned about Cordero's walk rate or not, but I finally decided to bring it up...and that's all I'm going to say about it.....Last week, I noted that Lincoln's strikeout rate was trending in the wrong direction...and this week he got shelled.....welcome back to David Weathers, I guess...please don't kill the 'pen.....Don't look now, but after a strong showing last week, Arroyo's FIP has dipped below 5.0...and Belisle's FIP still looks extremely good, despite the horrendous ERA and strikeout rates...I'd hang with both of them at least a bit longer...

Expected Wins
The Reds' BsR sums up to 183, which is 6 fewer runs than they've allowed...combine that with the LWTS-estimated 170 runs scored, and you have a predicted 0.463 winning percentage...that's starting to get a bit encouraging, but it'd still be last in the division...

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.