Prospecting Reds Pitchers with Steamer

Continuing our look at the Reds' prospects for the 2016 season season, tonight we'll turn our attention to the pitchers.  As with hitters, I'm using Steamer projections, grouping by age, and am including players who were on the active roster last year in these age groups but who no longer have rookie eligibility.

Age-25 Pitchers

The wrap on John Lamb when the Reds acquired him last summer was that he was a former elite prospect who never saw his velocity return following Tommy John surgery.  The thing was, when the Reds got him, his velocity was back up to the 92-93 mph range where it had been pre-surgery.  That ultimately did fade a bit, but he still finished with an average mlb fastball velocity of 91 mph (the bad velocity wrap started when he was maxing out in the high-80's the year before).  On top of that, he struck out well over a batter per inning, while keeping his walk rates acceptable.  The main criticism one can have of his peripherals, at least, is that he has thus far been a fairly severe fly ball pitcher with just a 37% ground ball rate.  Yeah, I know, 5.80 ERA.  But .376 BABIP.

Steamer believes.  And other analysts are taking note as well.  Most interesting was this note by Eno Sarris:

But when it comes to movement, he's set up for success. A nice riding four-seam, a decent cutter, and then that change. That change. With a 15 mph difference between it and the four-seam, Lamb owns the biggest velocity differential in baseball. Plus movement and velocity difference led to whiffs almost a quarter of the time he threw it, so it has real potential to be an elite pitch. In fact, his curve, cutter, and change all had plus whiff rates. Not above-average. Plus.

Biggest velocity differential in baseball.  Assuming that's a good thing (Chris Dial doesn't think so), it provides some extra support for those fantastic strikeout numbers.  I'm probably irrationally, wildly, sky high on John Lamb.  He's exactly the sort of guy I will flock to: a peripherals darling, overlooked by the casual fan, with pitchf/x things to point to indicating it is real.  I know I'll have to wait a little bit while he ramps up following back surgery (just hopin' that's ok), but I'm really excited to see what he does this year.


Age-24 Pitchers

Big group, and a lot of these guys look to play a role on the club in the near future.

Zack Weiss is a rising relief prospect.  Relief prospects are the worst kind of prospect, but Weiss's projection indicates that he's ready to contribute to the bullpen right now.  The Reds surely need some help in that regard.

Amir Garrett was a big riser in the Reds' prospect rankings this season, climbing all the way to #4 after giving up basketball and focusing exclusively on pitching.  Everything about him sounds good...except that he's entering his age-24 season and hasn't played above high-A.  Granted, he's fairly new to pitching, so it's not surprising that he's behind.  I'm sure he'll start in AA this year (he was just optioned there!).  If he can advance to AAA by the season's end, he'll be poised to crack the Cincinnati rotation by 2017, if all goes as well.

Michael Lorenzen rode a friendly luck dragon for the first month or so of his big league debut last season, but the fates predictably turned on him as time went on.  He didn't show the ability to avoid walks or miss bats throughout much of his stint with the Reds.  Nevertheless, at the same time, perhaps he was rushed a bit last season.  He advanced through the minors so quickly that 2015 was the first time he really failed.  It's far too soon to give up on the guy.  Here's hoping his elbow issue isn't serious.

Jonathon Crawford is a fascinating case of how quickly one's stock can fall.  He was a first-round selection in 2013, and turned in solidish performances in '13 and '14 (albeit with weak strikeout rates).  Last year, he was injured and missed most of the season.  He's getting older, but don't count out former top draft picks.  He's put up decent numbers before.  If his first half in AA (which is where I'd put him) doesn't go well this season, maybe you consider putting him in the pen and hoping he can rise quickly?

Finally, Jon Moscot is hoping for a shot to be a #5 starter.  Maybe he can be a #4 if things break right for him?  Maybe?  He won't strike guys out, but if he can avoid walks and get some ground balls then maybe can be a passable rotation cog.  My guess, unfortunately, is that he's destined for middle relief.

Age-23 Pitchers

And now here is an even bigger group!

Steamer approves heartily of the Reds' pickup of Rookie Davis, although it is worth noting that this is (for whatever reason) a projection for him as a reliever.  Brandon Finnegan also looks ready to roll as a reliever, though I'm keen to see him get a full season of starting before the Reds toss him back into relief.

Somewhat disappointing, perhaps, is the projection on Robert Stephenson, the Reds #1 prospect on most lists.  The key for Stephenson will be his ability to avoid the walk while staying effective.  His walk rates have been in excess of 4 bb/9 at both AA and AAA, so I'm very inclined to let him start the year in AAA despite the clamors we're hearing to promote him as soon as possible on the basis of his hype and spring training performance.  The prospect guys love his stuff, and we've certainly seen talented pitchers figure things out in the major leagues.  I remember trading Matt Harvey in my fantasy league back in 2012 when he was sporting a 4+ bb/9 rate, only to see him take a huge step forward and become Matt Effin' Harvey the next season.  But we've also seen guys who never figure it out and become nothing.  I'd wager there are more in the latter category than the former, but I'm rooting for him.

Cody Reed is a guy I'm pleasantly surprised to see rate so well.  Reed was another big riser year in prospect rankings as he took a significant step forward.  He was already rising when the Reds got him mid-season, and then he went on a crazy tear in the second half.  Steamer is giving him a reliever projection here, but what I'm taking from it is that not all of his rising expectation is just recency bias.

Nick Howard.  Sigh.  When I see Howard, I can't help but think that he's a case where the Reds just got too cute.  They had been having some success with the closer-to-starter thing with Cingrani and Lorenzen, so they followed suit by taking Howard.  He's been a catastrophe.  As I said with Crawford above, never count out a top pick entirely, but I think in his case, at least, the experiment with starting is over.  Now it's time to see if they can salvage a relief arm with him.

Age-22 Pitchers

I'm surprised to see that Sal Romano still is just 22 years old.  He was drafted back in 2012, and has been steadily showing improvement as he works his way through the system.  He got shelled at AA late last season, but seems likely to begin there as a 22-year old this season.  He hasn't shown particularly exciting peripherals, but he's always been young for his level.  Another good year, and he's suddenly banging on the door in Cinci.

Keury Mella was the main return for Mike Leake last summer.  He slots in with Nick Travieso as the top talents in this younger tier of prospects.  I'm been pretty tickled to see Travieso rising over the past few years, because for a while he looked like he'd been a lost selection.  He was so darn young when drafted, though, and the Reds patience and instruction is seemingly now paying off.  AA could be a big test for him.


Age-21 Pitchers and Below

Somewhat surprisingly, there aren't a lot of Reds pitching prospects entering their age-21 or below season. Tyler Mahle had a great season for Dayton last year and seems ready for his next step.  The other two didn't even get a projection in Steamer's database.  Both Antonio Santillan and Ian Kahaloa have appeared at the bottom of some of the various top-10 Reds lists, even if sometimes just listed below the top-10 as a guy to keep an eye on.

Prospecting Reds Hitters with Steamer

This is my annual look at projections for Reds top prospects.  As with last year, I'm using Steamer projections, which estimate a player's production if they were to play in the major leagues this year.  Most of the players below will not play in the big leagues this season, but it still provides some indication of current expected performance level.  I find it a useful exercise.

New this year, I've added Reds players who are no longer "prospects" because they do not have rookie eligibility, but are within the same age range as the players listed below.  Often times, we get really excited about 24-year old "prospects" who are just arriving in The Show, even though there are established big league players already on the roster of the same age as the new guys.  

As I've done before, we'll group them year by year.  Today we'll look at hitters, and the next time we'll look at pitchers.

Age-25 Players

Scott Schebler was acquired in the Todd Frazier trade.  He just arrived in the big leagues last season, but it's worth remembering that he is the same ages as both Billy Hamilton and Tucker Barnart.  Schebler does grade out as having a better bat than either of those two, primarily due to his substantial power.  But while Schebler players corner outfield, as has some questions about his defense, Hamilton and Barnhart are considered plus (if not elite) defenders at a premier defensive position.  As a result, Hamilton and Barnhart are both projected as providing value, while Schebler projects as a replacement player.  Seems about right.

That said, I don't really have a problem with Schebler getting a decent chunk of at-bats in left field.  I don't really see a better option, and a Duvall/Schebler platoon has at least some potential to provide decent pop.  If the dice roll the right way, there's a scenario in which they could even provide something close to league-average production.

Age-24 Players

I think this one's really interested.  With Zack Cozart apparently healthy, Eugenio Suarez is moving over to third base to replace Todd Frazier.  Suarez wasn't embarrassing at shortstop, but his -13 run UZR rating indicates that a move down the defensive spectrum is a good idea.  The Fan Scouting Report on Suarez rates him as having good arm strength, reactions, and first steps, but below-average hands, and well-below average throwing accuracy.  Hopefully, moving to third base will help, provide he can get those throws on the mark from across the diamond.  In any case, Suarez rates as a solid player, right around league average.

Rating above Suarez in 2015 value, however, is Eric Jagielo.  Steamer, at least, thinks that Jagielo's power will play just fine in the majors, and soon.  As I said in my piece on the Chapman trade, Jagielo has hit everywhere he has played thus far, despite the critics of his swing.  Maybe pushing him to start in AAA isn't such a bad idea after all?  It's worth noting that ZiPS isn't nearly as high on Jagielo as Steamer is.  There's something about him that makes me think of Will Middlebrooks (I suppose that's not the most ringing endorsement).

Kyle Waldrop was getting a lot of attention this time last year, but ended up having a miserable season that was plagued by injuries.  His projection certainly would indicate that more time in AAA is needed before he's ready; like scouts have been saying all along, Waldrop may be most likely to provide value as a bench bat with power, rather than in a future starting lineup.

Age-23 Players

Alex Blandino seems to polarize prospect writers.  Many early on didn't like him because of concerns about how the slap-oriented Stanford hitting approach.  He probably isn't going to stick at shortstop.  Nevertheless, he's performed well so far in his career.  He did see his production drop a bit in the second half while in AA, but a closer look indicates that some of that might have been due to bad BABIP luck.  He did, after all, maintain his strikeout rate and actually improve his walk rate in AA.  I've always liked him.  He's not particularly young, though, and he may not be a top-tier prospect, but there's a universe out there in which he turns into a Neil Walker-type (although Walker had played a full season at AAA by Blandino's age).

Yorman Rodriguez has been on the Reds' prospect list forever and ever.  But now there is a problem: he's out of options, but he's probably not ready for the majors yet.  His been transitioning away from CF over the past year, he still tends to be aggressive and prone to a strikeout, and doesn't have a ton of power to make up for it.  There's a decent chance that the Reds could lose him at the end of spring traning if they try to sneak him through waivers.  The question is whether that's really all that big of a deal.

Finally...sigh...Phillip Ervin.  Ervin keeps flashing occasional excellence, and scouts like his tools.  But he just can't seem to put it together.  He should begin the season in AA.  Of concern, in my view, was a trend toward moving him out of center field last season.  If he can't play center, then the requirements on his bat become that much greater.  Never say never with former top prospects, but I'll just say that this would be a good year for Ervin to turn his career around.  

Finally, Jake Cave was a rule-5 selection this year.  He doesn't project any better than Ervin, although he's probably a better defender.  Still, he doesn't seem like the best use of a roster spot, as much as it might be fun to keep him.

Age-22 Players

Jesse Winker is the Reds' best position prospect.  He already projects to have above-average walk rates, an acceptable strikeout rate, and to hold his own if promoted this season.  Odds are that he'll have to wait until later this summer to arrive in the majors, or even until next year.  But he recovered nicely from an early-season swoon last year, and all indications are that he'll be a solid big-league hitter when he arrives.  If his defense can rate out as at least average in the corner, and if he can add some power, he could be cornerstone piece of the next good Reds team.  If not, he should at least be a useful second-division starter.  And second-division fits the Reds nicely right now...

Jose Peraza is the prize of the Todd Frazier deal.  I wish I could be more impressed.  No power, doesn't walk, and a non-elite glove.  His supporters point to Dee Gordon.  I hope they're right.

Age-21 Players

Gavin LaValley hit #10 on some lasts in last year's offseason.  2015 didn't go as well as the previous years did, and he has yet to show much home run power in his first few seasons.  But his K-BB% rates are pretty good (career ~10% walk rate, ~20% K rate), and he's young.  He should be headed to high-A this year

Age-19 Players

2015 1st-round pick Tyler Stephenson had a nice debut season last year.  While he only hit a single home run, he showed good K-BB% rates and slugged out 15 doubles.  Catching prospects take a while to develop, sometimes, and if Devin Mesoraco is indeed healthy, the Reds can afford to be patient with him.

I will say this: I have a blanket worry about catching prospects anymore.  I used to be so excited about the notion of developing a good-hitting catcher, and the Reds certainly have had some success with that approach (Mesoraco, Grandal, Hanigan, LaRue for a few years, etc).  But catching is a brutal job, and it can wear away hitting talent (see Mauer, Joe).  If someone's bat is ahead of his glove, I'd be sorely tempted to find them another position while they're young, and try to fill in catching holes with guys like Welington Castillo.  It always seems like there are decent catchers available for close to the league minimum.  

2016 Reds Composite Prospect Ranking

This is my annual summary of some selected prospect rankings (2015 rankings here).  The short of the methods: players earn "points" for being ranked on top prospect lists from around the internets, and earn more points based on their ranking.  The longest list this year was FanGraphs' Top-34, and so a #1 ranking on any list is worth 34 points.  Input the lists, total up each player's points, and you get a composite ranking!  Tiebreaker is the number of lists as player was ranked on.

The lists I used were:

• Baseball America's J.J. Cooper (top 10)
• Baseball Prospectus (top 10)
• Doug Gray of Redsminorleagues.com (top 25)
• FanGraphs' Dan Farnsworth (top 34)
• John Sickels (top 20)
• MLB.com Pipeline (top 30)

MLB.com's pipeline list is a new addition.  I'm not particularly enamored with it, but MLB seems to be putting more and more into its prospect coverage, so it seems appropriate to include them.  Notably absent is Keith Law, but I only found his top 10, while his top-20 is behind the paywall.  I just decided to skip it.

Now, on to the rankings!

Rank	Player	Total Pts	# Lists	Avg Rank	Change
1	Robert Stephenson	202	6	1.3	0
2	Jesse Winker	196	6	2.3	0
3	Cody Reed	191	6	3.2	Trade
4	Amir Garrett	186	6	4.0	+6
5	Tyler Stephenson	168	6	7.0	1st Rnd
6	Nick Travieso	165	6	7.5	-1
6	Alex Blandino	165	6	7.5	+2
8	Keury Mella	161	6	8.2	Trade
9	Jose Peraza	149	5	5.2	Trade
10	Tyler Mahle	115	5	12.0	+12
11	Sal Romano	102	5	14.6	+3
12	Phillip Ervin	91	4	12.3	-1
13	Rookie Davis	85	4	13.8	Trade
14	Scott Schebler	82	4	14.5	Trade
14	John Lamb	82	4	14.5	Trade
16	Antonio Santillan	79	5	19.2	2nd Rnd
17	Eric Jagielo	78	4	15.5	Trade
18	Yorman Rodriguez	64	3	13.7	-11
19	Blake Trahan	62	3	14.3	3rd Rnd
20	Taylor Sparks	41	3	21.3	-2
21	Zack Weiss	40	3	21.7	---
22	Gavin LaValley	36	3	23.0	-7
23	Kyle Waldrop	35	3	23.3	-10
24	Aristides Aquino	33	3	24.0	-13
25	Jon Moscot	32	3	24.3	-5
26	Wyatt Strahan	31	2	19.5	-3
27	Nick Howard	29	2	20.5	-23
28	Ian Kahaloa	26	2	22.0	5th Rnd
29	Jake Cave	23	2	23.5	Rule 5
30	Tanner Rainey	16	2	27.0	2nd Rnd
31	Jose Lopez	16	1	19.0	---
32	Jonathon Crawford	11	2	29.5	-15
33	Calten Daal	9	2	30.5	-5
34	Jackson Stephens	6	1	29.0	-3
35	Brandon Dixon	3	1	32.0	Trade

Not surprisingly, Robert Stephenson (who makes me nervous) and Jesse Winker (who I want to love) remain at the top of the leaderboard.  Newcomer Cody Reed clocks in at #3, which is a nice showing for a guy who only starting to raise eyebrows when he was arguably the big prize in last summer's Johnny Cueto trade.  

Big Risers include Amir Garrett, who is coming off an outstanding season after finally committing to baseball, and Tyler Mahle, who was quietly brilliant for Dayton last year.  Fallers include perpetual underachiever Yorman Rodriguez, who seems low on the Reds' depth chart despite being out of options; Aristides Aquino, who struggled with injuries and underperformance in his first year at A-ball; and, most notably, the plummeting, flaming, catastrophic career of former 1st-round selection Nick Howard, who has yet to show any indication that he knows where the strike zone is.  

The Reds have added a lot of talent over the past calendar year.  I really like a lot of the guys who came over at the deadline last summer, and that shows up on this list (with Brandon Finnegan missing out because he has lost rookie eligibility).  I'm not particularly excited about a lot of the talent they've added this offseason, but they certainly have added some depth.  If at least a few of those go on to be useful pieces, then the offseason has to be seen as a passable success.

Quickly, here are those players who appeared last season, but are no longer on this year's list:

• #3 Michael Lorezen (graduated)
• #6 Raisel Iglesias (graduated)
• #8 Anthony DeSclafani (graduated)
• #16 Seth Mejias-Brean (not sure why...ok season, but getting old)
• #19 Tucker Barnhart (graduated)
• #20 Junior Arias (minor league free agent, left for Giants - TY to Doug Gray)
• #24 Daniel Corcino (claimed off waivers)
• #25 Chad Wallach (still around, rough season)
• #26 Ismael Guillon (DFA'd, did not play)
• #27 David Holmberg (graduated)
• #29 Jose Ortiz (released)
• #30 Jeremy Kivel (still around, awful control in 2015)
• #31 Daniel Wright (still around, good peripherals last year)
• #33 Sebastian Elizalde (still around, did not take a step forward)

Comps for Peraza & Schebler

Scott Schebler the next Josh Donaldson?
Well, no.  Photo credit: Dustin Nosler

Chris Mitchell at FanGraphs ran his KATOH system on the Reds' new prospects, and posted tables showing their comparables in his system.  Comparables are always flawed...but they are still interesting.  Here's what he had for Peraza and Schebler:

Jose Peraza

Top Comps: Miguel Cairo & Joaquin Arias
Best-case Comps: Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Young (sr.), Adam Kennedy, Damion Easley, Omar Infante.

We all know Miguel Cairo, he of the good season or two as a super-utility guy for the Reds.

Joaquin Arias is currently on a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks entering his age-31 season.  He didn't show Peraza's speed in the minors, but he certainly profiles as a high-contact, low-walk, minimal-power infielder.  Across 1100+ PA's, he has 0.3 WAR to his name, mostly driven by his baserunning (+2 runs over his career).

Of the good comps, Ellsbury, Young, and Easley always walked.  Omar Infante wasn't exactly patient, but also had acceptable walk numbers in some of his minor league seasons.  But Adam Kennedy seems about right for a good-case comp.  He wasn't patient, but developed modest power, and made enough contact to get his OBP up high enough to be a decent starter at second base.  He peaked out as a 3-win player for the Angels from 2002-2005...And then played for the Cardinals while now-Reds President Walt Jocketty was the GM in 2007.  So.

Needless to say, none of this is making me feel much better about him as a prospect.  Mitchell correctly points out that Peraza has been playing at very high levels for his age.  That's probably the best thing you can say about him right now.

Scott Schebler

Top Comps: Benji Gil, Josh Wilson
Best-case Comps: Ian Kinsler, Vernon Wells, Josh Donaldson

Benji Gil and Josh Wilson had similar walk- and strikeout profiles to Schebler, and flashed modest power in the minor leagues.  Neither posted the kind of home run production that Schebler has, however.  Wilson has never translated any of that power in the major leagues, whereas Gil at least had a few decent season in part-time roles for the Rangers and Angels.  The difference, however, is that Gil and Wilson both broke in as shortstops.  Schebler, on the other hand, is limited to the corner outfield, and there's no indication that he has any hope of being better than average over there (...and he's probably worse than average).

Those upside comps, though, are enough to make me a little giddy inside.  Until I go back and read the scouting questions on Schebler.  He's not going to be one of those guys.  But maybe he can still help the team, at least in a platoon role.

Prospecting Reds Pitchers with Steamer (2015)

Continuing my look at 2015 Reds prospects, here are Steamer projections for Reds top pitching prospects.  Here is the 2015 hitter prospects post, and here is my 2014 post on Reds pitching prospects.

The Reds are pitcher-heavy in their prospects, with a good number of both top-tier and mid-range prospects who could be ready for promotion in the next 12 to 18 months.

Age-25 Pitchers

Raisel Iglesias was signed last year after defecting from Cuba.  He has always been a relief pitcher, but the Reds think his four pitches can make him an effective starting pitcher.  He pitched as a starter in the Arizona Fall League, which, aside from this year's Spring Training, has been his only professional work in the United States.  Ideally, he will work out as a starter.  But at the same time, he's already 25, his stuff may be MLB ready in a relief role, and if he throws all season as a starter he will likely have a low inning limit.  Therefore, there's a lot of talk that he might pitch out of the Reds' bullpen most of the year.  I'm still hoping that they get him some starting experience later this season, but I'm ok with him being a reliever for some of the year.

Update 45 minutes after posting: news from the Reds today has Iglesias getting the nod as a starter over Tony Cingrani.  I'm surprised, but it is nice to see Iglesias being taken seriously as a potential starting pitcher.  Whether he'll be starting in Cincinnati or Louisville remains to be seen.

Age-24 Pitchers

Anthony DeScalfani was acquired in the Mat Latos trade, and seems very likely to break camp in the Reds' rotation.  While he might not have Tony Cingrani's ceiling, I'm pretty comfortable with DeSclafani as the Reds' #5 pitcher this year, and hope he gets that chance.

Age-23 Pitchers

This is an interesting group.  David Holmberg seemed to take a step back last year, at least early in the season, when he reportedly showed up to spring training out of shape and overweight.  He made a late-season appearance for the Reds, however, and held his own nicely.  He's down the pecking order a bit in terms of rotation jobs, but as a lefty there is always a chance that he might be asked to throw out of the bullpen this year.  Nevertheless, he's young enough, given his accomplishments, that he might still find his way into the rotation.

A few years ago, Daniel Corcino was among the most heralded of the Reds pitching prospects.  Unfortunately, regressed badly since then, and seems to be moving toward a career in the bullpen.  As a strong arm out of the pen, he does still have a shot at being a quality middle reliever, but I don't hold out a lot of hope that he'll ever provide a lot of value in the rotation.

Daniel Wright was a 2013 draftee out of Arkansas State University, and last year was his first season in as a full-time starter in professional baseball, and had a really nice 6.6 k/bb ratio (8.2 k/9, 1.2 bb/9).  He's a bit behind the others in terms of level, but should be in Pensacola at least some time this season.

Age-22 Pitchers

This is a big group, and represents a big chunk of the core of the Reds' pitching talent in the minors.  Jon Moscot is the polished, low ceiling, high-floor guy, who easily could find himself in the big leagues this year.

Michael Lorenzen has been skyrocketing up the depth charts since he converted to a starting pitcher just two years ago, and reports out of spring training have been ridiculous (sitting 97-98 mph in relief, and wowing Bryan Price).  He, also, is being talked about as a potential reliever for the Reds this season.  Unlike Iglesias, Lorenzen has age on his side, and I personally see little reason to start his service time clock early.  If I was confident that the Reds have the organizational will to move a pitcher back into the rotation after having strong success in the bullpen, I might think differently.  But I just don't trust them to do it.

Amir Garrett, a former two-sport player, has quit basketball and is now focusing on baseball full-time.  He's making strides as a result.  Nick Howard and recently-acquired Jonathon Crawford are both 1st-round draft picks with good performances behind them so far.  And for some reason, Steamer didn't make a projection for Wyatt Strahan, but he, along with passed-through-waivers Ismael Guillon, is distantly behind the other guys in this group.

Age-21 Pitchers

Robert Stephenson struggled for the first time last season, showing a big spike in his walk rate as he apparently tried to harness his command and pitch selection.  Most talent evaluators didn't seem particularly worried, however, given the quality of his stuff and his reputation as a smart, hard-working guy.  For what it's worth, neither does Steamer: despite just now entering his age-21 season, and only reaching AA, Stephenson got the best ERA projection among all Reds prospects.  The #2 guy, DeSclafani, is slated to be in the Reds rotation to start the year.  Here's hoping he rebounds well this year and is pitching in Cincinnati by the fall.

Age-20 Pitchers

Here are two pitchers who made huge strides last year.  Nick Travieso was the Reds' 1st-round selection in 2012 out of high school, but it wasn't until last year, when he repeated with Dayton, that he really put together numbers that would justify that selection.  He's still not posting outstanding strikeout numbers, but the scouting reports seem very strong, and I'm seeing reports that his velocity is inching back up.

Sal Romano, who was also in the Dayton rotation last year, took a similar step forward, with even better peripherals than Travieso.  As a result, he shot up the prospect rankings, and is now seen as something of a sleeper.  Both are still very young, and provide some much-needed depth in the lower minors for Reds pitching.

Age-19 Pitchers

Tyler Mahle has appeared at the bottom of this post two years running now.  He's not getting a lot of attention, but he posted great peripherals out of Billings' rotation last year (4.7 k/bb, 8.3 k/9), and might be throwing in the midwest league next year as a 19-year old (like Travieso and Romano did last year).  He'll be one to watch.

Prospecting Reds Hitters with Steamer

As I did last year, tonight I'm reporting on preseason projections for the Reds' Top Prospects.  I find this to be a useful way to follow the progress of Reds prospects, since I do not track most of them closely from season to season.  Since Oliver doesn't seem to be readily available, I've switched to using Steamer this year.  While it does not provide baserunning or fielding projections, it provides deep projections throughout the minor leagues and seems appropriately conservative with prospects.  Reds Prospect rankings are based on this.

Caveat: No matter what the system, projection systems are NOT the ideal method to evaluate minor league players.  Scouting-based approaches work better, period.  But I can't scout.  And blending projections with top prospect lists was something that I took to doing when I was into fantasy baseball a few years ago.  If nothing else, it's place to start when trying learn players.  Keep in mind that all numbers below are projections for what the player would do in the major leagues.  In most cases, that's not relevant to what they'll do in the minors this season.  But it gives you an idea of how well they have developed to this point.

Age-24 Players

Graduating from this cohort last year was Billy Hamilton, and Tucker Barnhart seems just about ready to assume his career as a backup major league catcher.  He will probably never be much of a hitter, but he'll field well enough to be a valuable bench player.

Seth Mejias-Brean had another nice first half in Bakersfield last season, but struggled a bit when promoted to Pensacola.  If he can make the adjustment this year, he could be in Louisville by mid-summer.  I don't know if he will be a starter, but he could be an intriguing utility bat that provides nice on-base skills as early as next season.

Age-23 Players

Kyle Waldrop was the Reds' minor league hitter of the year in 2014, building upon what was already an impressive minor league resume.  He has shown good doubles power, some home run power already, makes contact well enough, and is on pace to reach AAA this year.  If only he were a bit more patient.

Chad Wallach was recently acquired in the Mat Latos trade, and has shown outstanding plate discipline skills so far.  I understand that his defense is well behind his offense, but I would like to see the Reds be fairly aggressive in promoting him this season given the state of his bat.

Age-22 Players

Yorman Rodriguez finally reached the big leagues last year as a 22-year old.  The astonishing thing about him is that since arriving in AA in 2013, he seemingly has learned to take a walk (9.4% BB last season).  His strikeouts were also down a bit (23%).  If he can keep his patience while improving his contact rates even more, or while showing a bit more power, he still can take a legitimate step forward.

2013's first-round draft pick Phil Ervin had a miserable season last year.  Injuries might have played a role, and it's worthwhile to remember how high we were on him this time last season.  I'm sure he'll repeat Dayton; let's all hope he has a big season.  Wouldn't it be strange for the one Reds' first round bust in recent years to be a college position player?

Alex Blandino is interesting to me, because it seems like Reds fan-prospect guys are more down on him than the national prospect guys.  That rarely happens, especially with an offense-oriented middle infielder.  Yeah, he probably won't stick at shortstop.  Nevertheless, he is showing decent power, which was the big concern on him when he was drafted out of Stanford.  I like him a little bit.  And quit it with the Chris Valaika comps, people.

Age-21 Players

Not surprisingly given his performance, level, and age, Jesse Winker has the best hitting projection of any Reds prospect.  That said, Steamer also still seems to think that he could use some more development time in the minor leagues.  I'm hearing that he is likely to start the season in AA, though I think we'd all be surprised if he's not at least in AAA by midseason.  If the Reds tank and they flip Marlon Byrd at the trade deadline, would you bring up Winker if he's mashing?  Or do you try to hide him until May 2016 to keep him longer?

Aristides Aquino is rose quickly in the prospect rankings this year on the back of his strong showing in Billings, but he still has yet to play over rookie ball.  I'm finding myself intrigued by Carlton Daal as the only middle-infielder not named Alex Blandino in the Reds system to make a top-prospect list, although Kiley McDaniel, at least, doesn't seem very impressed by his defense.

Jose Ortiz is a guy I keyed in on last year as being an interesting hitter out on the fringe.  For some reason, however, he didn't get a lot of playing time in 2014.  I haven't seen any reports of injury.  When he played, he didn't hit very well, but he didn't play a lot.

Age-20 Players

Drafted in the fourth round last year out of Carl Albert High School in Midwest City, Oklahoma, Gavin LaValley had a nice year for Goodyear before a short stint in Billings.  He'll be just 20 years old this year, but his performance was enough to vault him onto all but one top-xx Reds prospect list in my sample.

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Prospect Rankings

Taking a page from Chris St. John (and as I've done in the past), here are consensus rankings for 2015 Cincinnati Reds top prospects.  The methods, in brief: I collected top prospect lists from five sources that I respect and gave points to players based on their position on the rankings.  Being listed first earned a player 28 points, being listed second earned 27 points, and so on.  If a player was not ranked on a list, he did not earn points from that list.  The consensus rankings were then determined by simply totaling up the points for a player.

The lists:

• Baseball America
• Baseball Prospectus
• FanGraphs / Kiley McDaniel*
• Minor League Ball / John Sickels
• Reds Minor Leagues / Doug Gray**

* Kiley's list was published last November, and so did not include any of the newly acquired Reds.  Based on this comment and the average rank of a projected 45 FV prospect on the Reds' list, I gave DiSclafani an equivalent ranking to Kyle Waldrop.  I don't have any information on Kiley's opinions of Jonathon Crawford or Chad Wallach, so I just left them blank.  This likely underrates Crawford, at least.

** Doug's list has been updated to include these new arrivals, which pushed three previously-ranked players off his list.  I kept them, giving them ranks 26, 27, and 28.

Here is the list!

2015 Cincinnati Reds Composite Top Prospect List

Rank	Player	Total Pts	# Lists	Avg Rnk	Change
1	Robert Stephenson	139	5	1.2	+0
2	Jesse Winker	134	5	2.2	+2
3	Michael Lorenzen	129	5	3.2	+5
4	Nick Howard	114	5	6.2	1st Rnd
5	Nick Travieso	108	5	7.4	+4
6	Raisel Iglesias	97	4	4.8	Intl. FA
7	Yorman Rodriguez	88	4	7.0	-2
T-8	Anthony DeSclafani	84	4	8.0	Trade
T-8	Alex Blandino	84	4	8.0	1st Rnd
10	Amir Garrett	83	4	8.3	+7
T-11	Phillip Ervin	74	4	10.5	-8
T-11	Aristides Aquino	74	4	10.5	+12
13	Kyle Waldrop	50	3	12.3	+14
14	Sal Romano	49	3	12.7	+27
15	Gavin LaValley	43	4	18.3	4th Rnd
16	Seth Mejias-Brean	33	3	18.0	+2
17	Jonathon Crawford	29	2	14.5	Trade
18	Taylor Sparks	26	3	20.3	2nd Rnd
19	Tucker Barnhart	25	2	16.5	-6
T-20	Jon Moscot	22	2	18.0	-8
T-20	Junior Arias	22	2	18.0	+4
22	Tyler Mahle	17	2	20.5	+13
23	Wyatt Strahan	16	2	21.0	3rd Rnd
24	Daniel Corcino	16	1	13.0	-13
25	Chad Wallach	15	2	21.5	Trade
26	Ismael Guillon	10	2	24.0	-12
27	David Holmberg	10	1	19.0	-21
28	Carlton Daal	8	1	21.0	---
29	Jose Ortiz	7	1	22.0	-15
30	Jeremy Kivel	5	1	24.0	-11
T-31	Jackson Stephens	3	1	26.0	-10
T-31	Daniel Wright	3	1	26.0	---
33	Sebastian Elizalde	1	1	28.0	Intl. FA

Big risers include Michael Lorenzen, Nick Travieso (who were already ranked well), Aristides Aquino, Kyle Waldrop, and Sal Romano.

Big fallers include Phillip Ervin, Jon Moscot (due to pessimism on ceiling rather than performance), Daniel Corcino, David Holmberg, and Jose Ortiz.

Among the top-10, the guy this methodology may be missing low on is Rasiel Iglesias.  He didn't make Baseball Prospectus's top-10 list, but otherwise was ranked aggressively on the other lists (average of 5th).  Reports out of spring training have been very positive on him, though Michael Lorenzen seems to be stealing the show.

2014 4th round pick Gavin LaValley also caught my eye.  He didn't make Baseball America's top-10 list, but appeared everywhere...including Baseball Prospectus's top-10.  Former football player-turned-thinner baseball player with good power potential.

Reactions?  Thoughts?

Cistulli on the importance of the first-round pick

Carson Cistulli is working through an excellent series looking at the demographics of a "good" player, which he defined as any player who posted at least 3 WAR in any one season from 2010-2014.  Yesterday's edition focused on players who had been drafted, which, based on his prior article, account for about 75% of all good players during that stretch (the others being international or undrafted free agents).  He broke them down by draft round.  Here's what he found for high school draftees:

College players broke down in much the same manner.  There was an interesting difference for junior college draftees, but nevertheless the result is really clear: about half of all players who put up a well above-average season are taken in the first round.  Half!

A lot of fans and people in the media tend to discount importance of draft status in baseball, sometimes equating it to a crapshoot.  We see first-round busts all the time, and we see players who were drafted much later in the draft who put up big numbers.  Nevertheless, every time there's a study done, we see that first round players are far better bets to be productive, and (from other studies) produce far more wins for their teams than later-round selections.

Another small point: the draft is almost entirely the domain of the scout.  Developing baseball players is prone to enormous uncertainty.  Nevertheless, scouts still do a really good job of identifying the best players to take in the early rounds of the draft.

Jesse Winker: a near-future answer in left field?

Reds' prospect Jesse Winker has been having a terrific season in high-A Bakersfield.  He was a 1st-round (49th overall) compensation pick in the 2012 draft when the Reds lost Ramon Hernandez, and so far has vastly outperformed the Reds 1st selection that draft, Nick Travieso**.  He was the Reds' consensus #4 prospect entering the season, and had really strong preseason Oliver projections (0.331 wOBA, *if* he played in MLB this season).  Well, he hasn't disappointed:

And that performance is despite missing a week or so with a concussion following a collision with a wall.  Apparently, it's not currently a factor.

Doug Gray had a nice piece yesterday comparing his raw performance to that of other recent uber-Reds prospects, namely Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Devin Mesoraco.  The short version?  Albeit with caveats, he's comparing extremely well.  Excellent walk rates, solid strikeout rates, and excellent power (as mesaured by ISO).

What are the caveats?  Three big ones:

• Competition level.  Jay Bruce did spend some time at high-A, but also spent time at more advanced levels.  However, Votto and Mesoraco were primarily at low-A in their age-20 seasons, meaning that Winkers numbers are even more impressive in comparison with him.
• Run environment.  Because the Reds' High-A affiliate is now in Bakersfield, Winker gets to play in the California league.  That league has the highest run environment among leagues above rookie ball (~5.3 runs/game when I looked at this between 2007-2009).  And furthermore, Bakersfield is a moderate hitters park for that league (runs park factor 1.03), and is especially favorable to the home run (1.15).  By comparison, the midwest league is quite pitcher friendly, even if Dayton is a bit of a hitter's park (park factor 1.07), meaning that the games played by Votto and Mesoraco are close to neutral.  When Bruce played in high-A, he was playing in Sarasota with the Florida State League, which is about as pitcher-friendly of a league as you can find.
• Sample size.  Doug is comparing Winker's 239 PA's against a full minor league season by Bruce, Votto, and Mesoraco.

Nevertheless, despite all of that, it's very encouraging to see Winker performing so well!  I think it's reasonable to expect a mid-season promotion to AA at this point.  If he hits well there, he could potentially be at least a long-shot for left field coming into spring training in 2015.  This possibility was discussed by Joel Luckhaupt in a recent Redleg Nation Radio.  Goodness knows that the Reds could use some help in left field!

** This was not to condemn Nick Travieso.  After a slow start to his career, Travieso is having a quality season at Dayton this year as a control-oriented starter.  His strikeout rate is still far from where I'd like it to be, but he could potentially still work out to be a back-end starter.  Doug Gray has said that he's seen Travieso throw in the mid-90's over the past year (albeit inconsistently), so there might still be stuff there to succeed.

Prospecting the Altoona Curve, Part 2: Pitchers

Continuing my look at the Altoona Curve, I'm turning my attention to pitchers today.

As with the hitters, the projection is the pre-season Oliver projections.  I like to use Oliver for minor leaguers, in particular, because of its emphasis on minor league equivalencies, and because it usually reports more players than anyone else!

Top Prospect: RHP Nick Kingham
Kingham was a 4th-round selection out of high school in 2010.  Now in his age-22 season, the 6'5" Kingham posted the best season of his young career last year with a 2.89 ERA across high-A and AA last year, and with peripherals to match.  This year he hasn't looked quite as strong, at least in terms of his peripheral numbers.  His strikeout rate has been down, and his walk rate has been unimproved from last year.  Entering the season, Tim Williams reported that he'd been adding velocity, while Marc Hulet was talking about him needing to learn to use his height and pitch in a downward angle.  He's obviously the guy that I'm most interested to see pitch...although I don't think the schedule matches up.

Top Performer: RHP Adrian Sampson
Sampson was drafted in the 5th round in 2012 out of community college.  He had a very nice season in low-A that year, but struggled a bit last year at high-A; his strikeouts took a big hit, even as he demonstrated exceptional control.  Perhaps as a result, he was left off all but the deepest Pirates prospect lists.  This year, now pitching in AA, his strikeouts are back up to mostly-respectable rates, and he's continuing to show good ability to avoid the walk.  He is listed as 6'3", 200 lbs, so he has good size.  Beyond that, the best info I've found on him was here: high-80's to low-90's fastball, good curve.  If I'm reading the schedule right, he should be in line to pitch on Saturday when I head to see the Curve.  I'm looking forward to watching this guy.  The Pirates have been aggressive in promoting him, and this year it seems as if it's paying off.

The Other Name: LHP Joely Rodriguez
Calling Rodriguez a "name guy" might be overstating things, but he managed to be ranked right along with Adrian Sampson in the pre-season lists that were deep enough to include him.  Rodriguez's 2014 stat line makes him look like a soft-tossing lefty.  Interestingly enough, despite his low career strikeout rates, Rodriguez actually was featured in a Nathaniel Stoltz profile as a power lefty.  He throws hard for a lefty, sitting in the low-to-mid-90's, and, thanks to the Pirates emphasis on it, is showing a good change-up.  Still, at some point, the stuff needs to play up and result in performance.  While he hasn't been bad, he's been the weakest of the Pirates' trio of 22-year old starters thus far.

The Veteran: LHP Brandon Mann
The top strikeout rate on the team actually belongs to Brandon Mann, who has largely thrown out of the bullpen.  He's also 30 years old, apparently did not play in organized baseball last season, and before that spent two years in Japan.  He last appeared in the affiliated minors in 2010 with the Dodgers after being cut loose by the Tampa Bay Rays, who drafted him as an 18-year old in 2002.  He's not a prospect, and is undoubtedly pretty far down on the depth charts.  But he's left-handed, so you never know, right?  Kudos to him for working his way back into affiliated baseball.