Alternative Universe Reds Hall of Fame: Intro & 1912-1920

Bid McPhee. Library of Congress.

Over six years ago, Sky Andrechek did a post on what the Hall of Fame might look like in an alternative universe in which voters got to elect just one--or, later in his scheme, two--players per year, rather than relying on the 75% vote criterion currently employed.  I've always loved that post, and wanted to do something similar for the Reds.  Furthermore, because of my slant, I wanted to see what it might look like if we used metrics like WAR (both total and converted to a rate stat) as one of the primary metrics by which we judge hall of famers.  Here is what I did.

Rules for the Alternative Universe Hall of Fame

• Players must be retired for three full years prior to being eligible.
• Players must play for the Reds for at least three years.
• Inductions occur every two years, beginning in 1912.
• Players must accumulate at least 3 career WAR with the Reds to be eligible, according to The Baseball Gauge.
• The Hall will alternate between two players and one player inducted.

That's it!  The requirements of three years post-retirement, three years of playing time with the Reds, and every-other-year inductions are the same as the actual Reds Hall of Fame.  I'm simply starting in 1912 and requiring a player (or two) be inducted every two years.  Not coincidentally, this will result in 80 players joining the Alternative Hall, which matches the current Reds hall.  There is no expiration to a player's eligibility; if they are the best eligible player in an induction year, they can still be inducted, even if they have been retired for 100 years.

Decisions on who is inducted will be made primarily on WAR and WAR/yr metrics.  However, for the purposes of making selections, I'm making similar adjustments as those made by the Hall of Stats: catchers get a 20% bonus given their restrictions on playing time, and pitchers from pre-1893 get a 20% penalty due to the absurd number of innings they threw.

So, without further adieu, here is the first decade...

Alternative Universe Reds Hall of Fame: 1912-1920

1912

With the opening of Redland Field in 1912, the Cincinnati Reds ownership decided, in a stroke of marketing genius, to begin a Hall of Fame to celebrate the history of the Cincinnati Reds baseball club.  The team still hadn't won a championship since its inaugural 1882 season when they topped the fledgling American Association.  Nevertheless, the team had hosted a cast of outstanding players, and a Hall of Fame would help honor those players...and hopefully many others in more successful years to come.  The first class had two inductees: quite simply the best Reds hitter, and the best Reds pitcher to date.

Bid McPhee, 2B, 1882-1899, MLB Hall of Fame, Reds Hall of Fame

McPhee was the cornerstone of the Reds franchise during the late 1800's, combining gloveless excellence in the field with a strong bat and excellent speed.  His stolen base total reported here is likely an underestimate; we do not have data on stolen bases from 1882-1885.  While he rarely posted flashy numbers--unless you call his league-leading 8 home runs in 1886 flashy--he was extremely consistent, posting 2 WAR or better from 1889-1896, posting a 109 OPS+ during that time.   He ranks 6th in career WAR among Reds position players, 5th in games played, 2nd in runs scored, and 1st (by a long shot) in both triples and stolen bases.


Noodles Hahn, LHP, 1899-1905, Reds Hall of Fame

Noodles Hahn is the all-time leader in career WAR by a starting pitcher.  More than Rijo.  More than Maloney.  More than Derringer.  More than Eppa Rixey, Buckey Walters, or Dolf Luque.  For the deadball era, the left-hander was very much a strikeout pitcher, leading the league in strikeouts for each of his first three years with Cincinnati.  While he broke in as a 20-year old and was immediately dominant, his career was not long.  Noodles' last full season was 1904 as a 25-year old.  He only three a combined 119 innings during his last two seasons as arm problems took their toll.

1914

In the alternating format chosen for the Hall's inception, every other cycle received one inductee.

Frank Dwyer, RHP, 1892-1899.  Second time eligible.

Dwyer joined the Reds as a 24-year old after begin released by St. Louis and blossomed into a dominant pitcher over the next several years.  He became their ace until   He ranks 5th on the Reds WAR leaderboard among pitchers, just ahead of Jose Rijo.  He was extremely durable for the Reds, posting a minimum of 240 innings for seven consecutive years while he anchored the staff.  There was something of a passing of the torch as he retired; his last year, in 1899, was Noodles Hahn's first.  He is not presently a member of the true Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame.

1916

Cy Seymour, CF, 1902-1906, Reds Hall of Fame.  First time eligible.

A converted pitcher, Cy Seymour is perhaps the greatest flash in the pan stories in Cincinnati Reds history.  In 1905, he put up the 10th best season ever by a Reds position player, posting 8 Wins Above Replacement (b-ref reckoning), while slugging .377/.429/.559 while leading the league in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS+ (182).  It was the highest batting average in Reds history.  Unfortunately, even with Seymour teaming up with Bob Ewing (see below), the 1905 Reds only finished five games over .500, and finished fifth in the National League.  Aside from that year, Seymour was a good hitter, but never approached those lofty heights.  He played with the Reds until mid-1906, when he was purchased from the Reds by the Giants for $12,000.


Bob Ewing, RHP/OF, 1902-1909.  Reds Hall of Fame.  First time eligible.

Bob Ewing is notable because he didn't throw a pitch in the major leagues until he was 29 years old.  The Reds discovered him during a barnstorming tour through Ohio, and signed him quickly after he held the major league team to a tie against the local squad.  Ewing was the most prolific spit-baller n Reds history, and he rode that pitch to more than 2000 innings for the club over eight years.  He was rarely the clear #1 pitcher on the team, but he topped 5 WAR for three consecutive years in 1905-1907, and cleared 300 innings in two of those three years.

1918

Jake Beckley, 1B, 1897-1903.  MLB Hall of Fame.  Reds Hall of Fame.  Fourth time eligible.

Beckley's long Hall of Fame career spanned across four National League teams, but the majority of his value stemmed from eight years with the Pirates followed by seven years with the Reds.  Throughout most of this time, Beckley was a steady, reliably excellent performer, posting between ~4 WAR in four of his seven seasons.  Nothing really jumps out at you in his batting line, but he was a guy who got on base and provided good extra-base potential (especially for the dead-ball era) via lots of doubles and (especially!) lots of triples.  His case for the Hall seems likely based on longevity and batting average; in our alternative Reds Hall, voters were happy to vote him in, but not ahead of the players who preceded him.  Or, maybe they were just waiting to let him highlight his own year, as 1918 was a single-induction year.  You can decide.

1920

In 1919, the Reds won their first World Series, defeating the White Sox 5 games to 3.  While allegations of the "Black Sox" throwing the game tainted their victory, the Reds threw a huge celebration for their two inductees into the Reds Hall the following year.

Tony Mullane, RHP (mostly), 1886-1893.  Reds Hall of Fame.  Fifth time eligible.

One of the best pitchers in the American Association, Mullane was an extremely durable pitcher that anchored the Reds' pitching staff for nearly half of its first 20 years.  While you can argue that it was a different game at the time, Mullane averaged 4.8 WAR and 354 IP per year from 1886-1892 for the Cincinnati Red Stockings.  He was also known to occasionally throw left-handed when his arm was sore.

Billy Rhines, RHP, 1890-1897.  Fifth time eligible.

During his rookie season, 21-year old Billy Rhines had one of the best seasons in Reds history.  He went 28-27, but led the league with a 1.95 ERA in 401 innings pitched, good for 11.4 WAR.  He'd spend most of the rest of his career with the club, often pitching alongside fellow Alternative Hall of Famers Tony Mullane and Frank Dwyer, posting four more 3+ win seasons through 1897.  He missed substantial time from 1892-1895--perhaps due to injury.  That, along with often not having the gaudy win totals that were typical for their time, might be why he is not better remembered by Reds fans.  But when he was healthy, he was as important as any other player on the teams during his tenure with the franchise.

Hope you enjoy the post.  This is something that I've wanted to do for years.  It takes a while to research each player, but I'll be working on this over the offseason as time allows.

A Winning Tradition: The 1919 Cincinnati Reds - Position Players

1919 Cincinnati Reds - Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Pitchers
• Position Players

As identified in the introduction, the 1919 Cincinnati Reds were an elite fielding team.  This was especially prominent in the outfield, where Edd Roush and Greasy Neale patrolled the vast real estate of Redland Field.  The star of the infield, defensively, was the unheralded Morrie Rath, who, by the numbers and reputation, was a brilliant defender.  Offensively, the team's production revolved around two key hitters: third-baseman Heinie Groh and MLB Hall of Famer Edd Roush.

Morrie Rath

Heinie Groh and Edd Roush were unquestionably the stars of this team; more on them shortly.  But the one who really jumps out at me on this graph was Morrie Rath.  Granted, one should have substantial reservations about fielding numbers from this era (see comment below the jump on this post), but Rath saved 27 runs above average with his glove between 1919-1920, and DRA has him at nearly 45 runs over the same time period.  The fascinating thing about Rath is that he had such a hard time getting the opportunities that he did.  He broke in with the Athletics in 1909, and enjoyed a short tenure with the White Sox as their starting second baseman from 1912-1913.  Following an injury-driven bad season in 1913, however, he was sent to the minors, and did not re-emerge until the Reds gave him an opportunity in 1919.  Rath played all but two games at second base that year, was the Reds' leadoff hitter, and turned in an outstanding defensive season along with league-average hitting.  By the estimates here, he was a 4-win player that year.  Bill James speculated that Rath might have had a longer career had he played in a different era, because his principle skills--fielding, and the ability to get on base--weren't adequately appreciated at the time, writing "He spent almost all of his career in the minor leagues just because his skills were too subtle for the men who managed the major league teams."

Reds Hall of Famer Larry Kopf does not rate highly by these measures.  He was about a league-average hitter in 1919, one of his two best offensive seasons.  However, while an average of his 1919-1920 Total Zone rates him as a league-average shortstop, Michael Humphrey's multiyear Defensive Regression Analysis metric rates him as well below-average (-21 runs).  The values above average the two.  If one uses just TZ or DRA alone, Kopf's WAR value swings by a full win higher or lower.  Kopf's reputation was as a solid defender, and given how good the team's overall fielding numbers were, it seems reasonable to believe Total Zone's numbers in this case.  Nevertheless, even from the most optimistic of perspectives, it is hard to justify induction into Reds' Hall of Fame.  Morrie Rath is more deserving, although he is ineligible due to only playing for the Reds for two seasons.

Greasy Neale

Also worth noting is Greasy Neale.  He rated as an equivalent fielder to Edd Roush that season, and the combination of those two resulted in few balls dropping throughout most of the outfield.  Being a pitcher's park with vast outfield fences, a strong outfield defense was important.  Neale might not have been an offensive force (he'd hit better the prior two seasons as a part-time player), but he was a solid enough hitter to justify his position and keep his glove in the field.  On top of all that, he competed closely with Heinie Groh for the title of best first name on a squad of outstanding first names.  Neale was traded after the 1920 season, along with Jimmy Ring, to the Philadelphia Athletics for future Hall of Famer Eppa Rixey.  The A's, in turn, put him on waivers in mid-1921, and the Reds immediately reacquired him, though he saw his role diminish.  Ultimately, after retiring from baseball, Greasy Neale became an extremely successful football coach, and was inducted in both the College Football Hall of Fame (Washington and Jefferson University) and the NFL Hall of Fame (Philadelphia Eagles).

Edd Roush

Heinie Groh and Edd Roush were similar, dynamic, highly effective hitters that formed the core of the Cincinnati Reds' offensive attack.  Their numbers in 1919 were virtually identical by all major measures, and they even had the exact same slugging percentage.  Groh walked more than Roush that year, but Roush made up most of that gap with a slightly higher batting average.  Both are justly in the Reds Hall of Fame, and Roush would become the Reds' first MLB Hall of Fame inductee in 1962.

The Reds got at least solid offensive production from all of their positions save one: left field.  Sherry Magee was the incumbant left fielder that season, but as the year went on he lost more and more playing time to Rube Bressler (a two-way player that season, as discussed in the post on pitching) and, later in the season, Pat Duncan.  Duncan, a rookie, would go on to take the left field job full-time in 1920, and started there for the Reds for four seasons.

Closing

Almost every reference you will see to the 1919 Reds will mention the Black Sox scandal.  Without question, it is the legacy of this Reds team that was most strongly tarnished by the actions of those players.  The team was legitimately outstanding, and there's no reason--in hindsight, anyway--to have considered them underdogs in that World Series.  They had an incredible record, easily the highest run differential in baseball, and a team that featured good hitting, good pitching, and outstanding defense.  They were also loaded with interesting and dynamic personalities.  This is a team that Reds Fans should celebrate, and it was a pleasure to learn about them through this series.

References and Resources

• The Baseball Gauge is the most outstanding site on the internet when researching past teams.  It also is the one place I know of where you can find Defensive Regression Analysis data.
• Baseball-Reference is always invaluable, especially for game logs, lineups, and their wonderful Bullpen wiki of concise player bios.
• FanGraphs continues to be my go-to site for performance metrics, and furnished virtually all of the stats in my R baseball database.  Thank you David Appelman!
• SABR's Baseball Biography project is an incredible resource for perspectives and histories on ballplayers.

A Winning Tradition: The 1919 Cincinnati Reds - Pitchers

1919 Cincinnati Reds - Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Pitchers
• Position Players

As discussed yesterday, the Reds were among the best run-prevention teams in the major leagues in 1919.  While the team featured elite fielding, a healthy chunk of that credit goes to their pitching staff.  The Reds' rotation shouldered the majority of the pitching load, accounting for 84% of the innings pitched by the team.  Dolf Luque accounted for most of what was left, which included a handful of starts and a good number of performances in relief.

What you think of the Reds' individual starters depended a fair bit on what metrics you like when looking at pitchers.  Dutch Reuther led the team in ERA, but his fielding-independent numbers rated him as a tad below league-average.  If you like fielding-independent numbers, then Hod Eller probably looks like the best pitcher on the staff:

I put "Lucky" and "Unlucky" in quotes there: even in modern day baseball, you can't chalk all of the gap between FIP and ERA to luck.  And in the dead-ball era, I suspect that pitchers had more control over things like BABIP than they do presently.  Nevertheless, Hod Eller seems to clearly have been the ace of this staff.  He threw the most innings, posted a good ERA, and had the best fielding-independent numbers to go with it.

Now, a look at some of the underlying numbers to reveal how these pitchers went about their business.

Hod Eller

24-year old Hod Eller posted what was easily the best strikeout rate on the team.  It was his third year in the big leagues, all with the Reds, and he was a Shine Ball specialist.  This was a pitch created by rubbing one surface of the baseball extremely smooth using a patch of paraffin wax.  This, when coupled with a roughed-up ball courtesy of his infielders, resulted in a ball that could break in a variety of directions depending on which surface was up.  The pitch became very controversial by the 1919 season, was banned prior the 1920 season.  He missed much of May and June as he worked to develop an alternative arsenal.  While he ultimately pitched pretty well over the rest of the year, he reported out of shape in 1921, lost his starting job, and ultimately was out of major league baseball.  So, with the pitch, more or less, went Hod Eller's career.  But in 1919, it was a heck of a weapon.  It was Eller who pitched game 8 that ultimately brought Cincinnati its first World Series title.

Slim Sallee is interesting.  The veteran southpaw seemed the extreme version of the pitch-to-contact pitcher; almost every batter he faced ended the appearance with a ball in play.  He was known for having other-worldly command, and it showed in his walk rate.  But he also didn't strike anyone out in 1919.  By this point, Sallee had been playing for 11 seasons, for the Cardinals and then the Giants, and was in his first and only full season with the Reds (a deal he apparently engineered by refusing to play for anyone else!).  He'd been dealing with back problems since the prior season, and re-injured his back during spring training, which likely accounts for the major drop in his already-low strikeout rates from earlier in his career.  Nevertheless, using a combination of command, knowledge of batters, and guile, he still managed a very effective season.

Dutch Ruether

With the caveats mentioned above about the meaning of BABIP for dead ball pitchers still in mind, here is a comparison that tries to get at fielding-independent numbers (K-BB%) versus results of balls in play (BABIP).  Here is where two of the other Reds' starters show up as interesting: Dutch Ruether and Ray Fisher.  1919 was a breakout season for Ruether.  He posted a 1.81 ERA in 240+ innings as a 25-year old, and would go on to pitch as a dependable starter for the Robins, Senators, and even, in his final year, the 1927 New York Yankees.  Throughout his career, he posted a K-BB rate of nearly 0, but as his BABIP swung up in the live ball era, so too did his ERA.

Fisher, on the other hand, was 31 and on the downside of his career, having just returned to baseball after being drafted into the army during the 1918 season.  He was a spitball specialist, but unlike Hod Eller, he was among the 17 pitchers exempted from the ban on doctored baseballs that began in 1920.  Nevertheless, 1920 was his final year.  He went on to coach for 38 years at the University of Michigan.

The only starter who didn't pop out as remarkable on these graphs was the dependable Jimmy Ring.  Like Dutch Ruether, Ring had something of a breakout with the 1919 Reds.  He'd actually joined the Reds rotation as a 23-year old the year prior, but took a step forward in 1919, posting better strikeout numbers and the best ERA of his career.  The Reds ultimately traded him after the 1920 season to Philadelphia in exchange for Eppa Rixey, and Ring went on to post five solid seasons for the Phillies.

Dolf Luque

When the starters could not finish a ballgame, the man who usually got the nod was reliever Dolf Luque.  Loque, who hailed from Cuba, was in his second season with the Reds, and in 1919 pitched primarily in a relief role, with 9 spot starts among his 30 appearances.  On May 16, 1919, Luque threw the first shut-out of any latino ballplayer.  He would go on to secure a full-time starting job in 1920, and would be a keystone starter for the Reds through the 1929 season, earning a place in the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame.

One other reliever was of particular interest: Rube Bressler, also a Reds Hall of Famer.  Bressler had debuted in 1919 as a left-handed pitcher for the Philadelphia Athletics, and had had a fine debut season.  Unfortunately, by 1919, he'd encountered arm troubles severe enough that he'd been relegated to the bullpen.  One day, when outfielder Sherry Magee was ill, Reds manager Pat Moran tried Bressler in the outfield.  That was the start of his career as a hitter.  He didn't succeed immediately, but by 1921 Bressler started to have success.  He'd go on to have a number of above-average seasons with the Reds as a high-contact, high-walk, on-base oriented hitter.

Up next: the 1919 Reds Position Players!

A Winning Tradition: The 1919 Cincinnati Reds - Introduction

Today is the start of a series I've been planning for a few years now: a profile on winning Reds teams throughout history.  We start with the first winning Reds team of the 1900's, the 1919 Cincinnati Reds!  This is exciting for me; the way I have it set up, almost everything is automated with R, save for making a few of the pretty tables in Excel.  This will hopefully allow me to put these posts together much quicker as I work through later teams.  I'm looking forward to this tremendously.

1919 Cincinnati Reds - Table of Contents

• Introduction
• Pitchers
• Position Players

The 1919 Reds played in Redland Park, which opened in 1912.
Photo source, c.1920: Wikipedia

The 1919 Reds were the first Cincinnati squad to win their division since the franchise's inaugural team won the debut season of the American Association in 1882.  This team's championship came at a really interesting time.  World War I had just ended, and players were returning from service in the military.  It was the end of the dead ball era.  The next year, in 1920, with the exception of a handful of pitchers, spitballs, scuffballs, and shine balls were outlawed.  With the death of Ray Chapman in 1920, baseballs were replaced whenever they became dirty or damaged to enhance their visibility (this also maintained their performance throughout the game, favoring hitters).  In 1919, Babe Ruth broke the home run record with 29 home runs, topping Ned Williamson's mark of 27 from 1884.  Ruth would crush that record the next year, slugging 54 home runs in 1920 to usher in the Live Ball Era.  And, of course, the 1919 World Series will be forever infamous because of the Black Sox scandal, when White Sox players took money from gamblers to throw the series.

Lost in all of that excitement was an excellent Cincinnati Reds team that featured an MLB Hall of Fame Center Fielder, 6 Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame players, a roster full of brilliant first names, and, most of all, a legitimate claim to being the best overall team in baseball that season.

The Regular Season

Graph courtesy of the fantastic Baseball Gauge

The Reds entered the season having finished above .500 in two consecutive seasons, but with more than three decades having passed since they topped their league, be it the American Association or the National League.  After a middling start, they finally started to turn it on in June, and climbed their way into a dogfight with the New York Giants that would last until August.  Once August hit, however, the Reds finally gained some separation, and finished with an outstanding 96-44 (.686) record in the 140 game season.  That's 52 games over .500!  To maintain that winning percentage over a 162-game schedule in modern baseball, a team would need to go 111-49.

The Playoffs

Chart courtesy of The Baseball Gauge

While it's impossible to know how much the series was negatively tainted by the gambling operation that would be exposed a year later, the Reds were in control pretty much from the start.  After slugging their away ahead mid-way through the first game, they would win four of the first five contests.  While the White Sox came back to win the next two, the Reds would power their way to a 10-5 victory in game eight behind Hod Eller and lock in their first World Series championship.

Redland Field

Redland Field opened in 1912 in the same location of the Palace of Fans.  It was a deep park, with approximately symmetrical dimensions: 360 feet to left and right field, and 420 feet to center field.  This was reflected in its 96 Park Factor, which put it in a tie for the best pitchers' parks in baseball that year along with Boston and Milwaukee.  It had some interesting quirks, including a 15-degree sloping terrace in left field that angled up to York Street, which is visible in the photograph to the right just beyond the left field wall.

The Reds played at Redland Field until Riverfront Stadium opened in 1970, though the park would undergo massive changes: additional seating, movement of home plate toward the outfield, the installation of the first lights in a major league park, and, of course, a change of name in 1934 to Crosley Field.

Team Statistics

The 1919 Reds were not the best-hitting team in baseball.  That honor went to the White Sox, which likely resulted in their reputation as the superior team.  But the Reds were still a solid-hitting team.   After park adjustments, they were the fifth-best offense in baseball, and by wRC+ they were basically tied with the White Sox.  Where they really excelled, however, was in run prevention, posting the second-lowest park-adjusted runs allowed total in baseball.  This combination made them the best-performing team in baseball, with the highest run differential of any team in baseball.  It really wasn't even close:

Team	Runs Scored*	Runs Allowed*	Run Differential
Reds	602	418	184
Giants	624	485	139
White Sox	675	539	135
Indians	616	523	92
Yankees	576	507	69
Cubs	445	399	46
Tigers	626	583	43
Robins	510	498	12
Pirates	467	461	6
Red Sox	589	591	-2
Browns	525	551	-26
Senators	549	589	-39
Cardinals	468	558	-90
Braves	482	586	-104
Phillies	472	647	-175
Athletics	450	732	-282

Team Statistics: Preventing Runs
How they achieved that outstanding Run Allowed total is interesting.  As will become clear in the pitcher profiles, this Reds team featured a lot of pitch-to-contact guys.  As a group, they didn't strike out a lot of players (even by the standards of the day), though they did avoid walks pretty well.  What this team did do, however, is convert balls in play into outs at a league-leading rate:

There are two major explanations for this.  First, the 1919 Reds were a superb defensive team.  In fact, we can plot xFIP- against Total Zone (it's actually JAARF), which has some corrections for park factors and such and more player-by-player nuance, and we see the Reds still rated as one of the best-fielding teams in baseball that year:

1919 Reds were unquestionably an elite-fielding team.  I also think, however, that when we're looking at Dead Ball Era teams, we need to be far more cautious about assuming how well fielding-independent stats tell the story.  It's very reasonable to suspect that the DER numbers were aided by the ability of some Reds pitchers to induce weak contact, thereby increasing the Reds' ability to convert those balls into outs.

Team Statistics: Producing Runs
Finally, a look at the Reds' offense compared to other teams:

The 1919 Reds were not an elite offense.  They played in Redland Field (later renamed Crosley Field), a pitcher's park (park factor of 96), and so their league-average OBP probably rates out as a tick above-average.  They didn't have a ton of power, although this was still the Dead-Ball era; even the Red Sox, with home run champion Babe Ruth, had an isolated power below .100.  The spread in ISO was about half then what it is now, and even now a point of OBP is worth about 1.7 times as much as a point of ISO.  Power just wasn't that important in terms of how teams varied in the Dead Ball Era.

Next up: 1919 Reds Pitchers!

Statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Reds History, Graphically

I had a fun idea for a graphic that summarized the Reds' regular season winning percentages, playoff appearances, and top players over their history.  Here is the result:

You can click it to make it larger.

Some Takeaways:

Winning Teams

Based on a five-year moving average, the Reds have had six collections of winning teams: the late 1890's, the late 1910's-1920's, the late-30's-early-40's, the teams of the 60's and 70's, the 1990's, and the current 2010+ teams.  All but one of these winning stretches have at least produced one playoff appearance.  The playoffs weren't a thing in the 1800's, although the Reds never finished in first place in the National League until 1919.  Of the successful stretches of Reds teams during times when the World Series was an annual event, only the current incarnation has not won a World Series.

The highest winning percentage in Reds' history is not the Big Red Machine's peak in 1975, but rather the 1919 Reds team that won the World Series in the Black Sox scandal.  They went 96-44 (.686 WPct in 140 games).  That was a brilliant team, and the fact that their victory was tainted by what happened with the Black Sox just make that episode all the more irritating.  There's no reason to think that they couldn't have won that series anyway.

For the stat-minded Big Red machine fan, though, fear not: the 1975 Reds have the best PythagenPat winning percentage in Reds history (their mark of .662 just edged out the 1919 team's .654 PythagenPat).  The best PythagenPat winning percentage for the current Reds' squad was last year, 2013, at .576 (2010: .567; 2012: .558).

Losing Teams

The Reds have also have really only gone through four extended stretches as losing teams.  These include the 1900's, the 1930's, the mid-40's/early 50's, and then Jim Bowden-era from the late 1990's through the 2000's.

Great Players

I listed the top-26 players by rWAR (courtesey of Baseball Gauge).  I would have included more, but I ran out of space (sorry, Frank McCormick!).  Not surprisingly, the 1960's and 1970's, the most successful stretch in Reds history, were home to a lot of the great players from the Reds' past.  But I was surprised at how many of the great Reds players appeared not just during the peaks in the 20's and late 30's (as would be expected), but also during the big swoon in the early 30's.  That said, when you look at it, most of those greats were either finishing up their careers, or just starting out during that time...and many of them were responsible for the successes of 1938-1944.  I'm looking forward to digging into those teams a bit more.

The Cost of the Strikes

In 1981, because of a player strike, MLB played a shortened season.  And for some reason, the justification for which seems lost to history, they opted to take the winners of the first half and the second half as the teams that made the playoffs.  Meanwhile, the Reds, who had the best record in their division overall, went home in October.

In 1994, the Reds were in first place when the season ended, again due to a player strike.  That team would repeat their success and go to the playoffs in 1995, but it's hard not to wonder what might have been.

I tend to side with players over owners most of the time these days when it comes to financial disputes. I might not like that players make bazillions of times more money than people who do more important work outside the entiertainment industry.  But society has made its choices on how it spends its money, and I'd much rather the players share in those profits than it stay in the pockets of owners.  That all said, the strikes have come at awful times for the Reds.

Afterthought: I have no memory of writing it, but I found this somewhat similar post from 2009 after writing this article.  Funny when that happens!

WAR Graphs for Pitchers

David Appleman made a neat new addition over at FanGraphs: WAR Graphs for Pitchers!

Here's one:

Source: FanGraphs -- Jose Rijo, Jack Armstrong, Tom Browning
These are one of my favorite tools for evaluating player careers, especially for questions about hall of fame eligibility.  Therefore, it's very nice to have FanGraphs making it so easy to produce them.  The only wish I have was that we had a choice of WAR metrics: their standard FIP-based WAR, and RA/9 WAR.

History of Crosley Field

The +Cincinnati Museum Center ran a nice little note on the history of Crosley Field on their Google Plus page yesterday.  Here it is:

Since baseball season is in full swing, we thought it was high time we shared some good old-fashioned baseball history.

On May 17, 1912, Redland Field – the fifth home of the Cincinnati Reds – was dedicated. The facility was located at the corner of Western Avenue and Findlay Street (as seen below). At the time, it was the largest playing area in the major leagues and the first two-tiered stadium in Cincinnati.

In 1934, it was renamed Crosley Field, after the prominent Powel Crosley Jr. purchased the Cincinnati Reds franchise to ensure the team would remain in Cincinnati. Crosley not only had a natural love for the game, but he also had the image, money and business experience to head a successful major league franchise, especially during an economic depression. Crosley soon became one of the game’s great innovators. Before he owned the team, he had personally broadcast the first Cincinnati baseball game ever heard on radio. After he purchased the franchise, he hosted professional baseball’s first night game in 1935.

On an unrelated note, I really like Google Plus.  It seems like twitter is the central hub for most baseball-related social media.  I do try to post my articles over there, but unfortunately it doesn't seem like it gets the traffic to be worth investing much more time there.

Barry Larkin for the Hall

I finished a piece last night, running today at Red Reporter, arguing for Barry Larkin's induction into the Hall of Fame. Response has been very positive, with links from BBTF (Repoz) and Rob Neyer, among others. Everyone seems to think that Larkin should get in (as I show, that's clearly supported by the data), but some think he might have some trouble. Hopefully he'll get in before guys like Jeter start appearing on the ballot.

Offense and Defense Over Reds History

Mike has a nice post today that tries to rank this year's Reds offense for futility compared to other best-bad offenses in franchise history.

I thought I'd do a quick little study myself. I calculated actual team runs scored above NL average and runs allowed above NL average, after park factor correction, from 1890-2008 (ok, so I only have park factors for 1901+ teams). For 2009, I did the same, but I extrapolated to 162 games to make the data comparable.

By using park factors and the NL Average baseline, I should be correcting for pretty much everything aside from level of competition. Also note that I'm strictly using actual runs data--no RC, lwts, BsR, DIPS, UZR, etc. I love looking at components because they're less noisy (e.g. the BtB Power Rankings), but you also risk losing some information that the component stats don't take into account. So, for that reason, I think it makes the most sense to just start with straight up RS and RA.

Anyway, here are those data graphically.
Above-average is good on both offense and defense. The line is a 10-year moving average, because there are huge year-to-year fluctuations.

The past decade excepted, the Reds have traditionally had good defense (meaning pitching + fielding). Offensively, there really are only a few times when they've consistently posted above-average hitting clubs--though you can clearly see how remarkable the Big Red Machine era was (those two little dots blue dots near the top of the graph are runs scored above average in 1975 and 1976...man oh man). Since then, the Reds have basically fluctuated around average on offense.

As far as best- and worst-offensive seasons go, here you are:

Top-10 Reds Offenses

Rank	Year	RSAA
1	1976	204
2	1975	180
3	1972	135
4	1965	125
5	1974	123
6	2005	103
7	1973	99
8	1939	98
9	1919	90
10	1968	86

Those '70's teams were really good at hitting the baseball.

Also, I think I remember there were a lot of complaints about too many home runs in 2005. Remember those days? :)

Worst-10 Reds Offenses

Rank	Year	RSAA
1	1930	-183
2	1982	-133
3	1951	-133
4	1945	-128
5	1932	-120
6	1891	-118
7	1929	-117
8	1934	-110
9	1893	-102
10	1933	-101
11	2009	-97
12	1997	-95

Ok, I cheated and gave you 12. The current Reds team is on pace (I'm extrapolating) to be the 11th-worst Reds offense, at least by this measure. What surprised me was that the '97 team showed up as just a tad "better." I guess I'd forgotten how bad that offense was, but they had four starters OPS below 0.700, including Pokey Reese at a brilliant 0.571.

And holy crap, that 1930 team was horrible. Harry Heilmann hit 0.333/0.416/0.577 for that team, but there wasn't much of a supporting cast. They won 59 games.

Top-10 Reds Defenses

Rank	Year	RAAA
1	1896	152
2	1940	142
3	1890	114
4	1904	112
5	1944	111
6	1964	110
7	1925	105
8	1999	104
9	1990	101
10	1967	96

If you glance back up at the graph, there were two large peaks in Reds' defense in the '20s and in the '40s, and you see some of that in this table. The 1890's also had some brilliant defenses, including probably their best defensive team ever in 1896. The 1940 team included Bucky Walters and Paul Derringer in the rotation, and won the World Series over the Tigers.

And two of the last three Reds teams to make the post-season (I count the 1-game playoff against the Mets in '99 postseason, technicalities be damned!) are on this list. Big Red Machine teams don't appear, though the '75 team ranks 18th.

And now...

Worst-10 Reds Defenses

Rank	Year	RAAA
1	1901	-169
2	2005	-162
3	2004	-135
4	2003	-123
5	1894	-113
6	1934	-105
7	1931	-83
8	1916	-82
9	1948	-74
10	2001	-72

I mean, like, holy crap, the 2001-2005 was a pretty horrible time for run-prevention, eh? I don't think offense was the problem in 2005.

One last thing. Since I had the data in front of me, I calculated PythagenPat-estimated winning percentages for all Reds teams since 1890. Through last night's game, the Reds have been outscored 81743-81634 since 1890, which results in a PythagenPat of 0.4994 since they joined the National League.

Top-10 PythagenPat Winning % Reds Teams

Rank	Year	PythW%	RSAA	RAAA
1	1975	0.662	180	77
2	1919	0.654	90	93
3	1976	0.639	204	18
4	1940	0.629	41	142
5	1939	0.616	98	79
6	1896	0.614	11	152
7	1972	0.607	135	21
8	1904	0.607	23	112
9	1994	0.602	78	41
10	1974	0.595	123	26
11	1999	0.593	41	104
12	1995	0.586	80	44

Big Red Machine at the top, naturally.

That 1919 team is interesting, as they were, of course, the "victims" (benefactors?) of the Black Sox scandal. The story you always hear is that the Reds were a vastly inferior team to the Sox, and how the Sox gave the series away. Maybe they did, but if they played to the best of their abilities, I wouldn't be surprised to see this Reds team still beat them. They were a very, very good team.

I was also surprised to see three teams from the mid-late '90's on this list (though I cheated a bit to get them on there again). The '99 team is a favorite of mine, but the '94 and '95 teams were superb as well. Both years were shortened seasons, so they might have posted even higher numbers vs. average had they played 162 games both years. Damned strike.

Worst-10 PythagenPat W% Reds Teams

Rank	Year	PythW%	RSAA	RAAA
1	1901	0.326	-91	-169
2	1934	0.360	-110	-105
3	1930	0.380	-183	-17
4	2003	0.385	-67	-123
5	1945	0.385	-128	-36
6	1933	0.387	-101	-49
7	1948	0.387	-90	-74
8	1931	0.397	-73	-83
9	1932	0.401	-120	-25
10	1891	0.403	-118	-26

The '30s were not a good time to be a Reds fan. Makes the 2000's look like...well, maybe not quite a golden era, but the '30's make our current decade look a lot better. The '30's had five consecutive seasons with actual winning percentages below 0.400 (1930-1934). The Reds' most recent season below 0.400 was 27 years ago (1982; 0.377 in reality, 0.415 by PythagenPat).

The '39 and '40 teams must have been incredibly special to this town. It's before my time, though, and I'm just starting to learn about those players and teams.

For the record, 2009 is on pace to be the 20th-worst team in Reds history.

Almost all raw data is from the Baseball Databank.

Reds WAR Review: Catchers

Bubbles Hargrave is probably the 4th-best catcher in Reds history. I hadn't heard of him. Yes, I'm lame. Image via Wikipedia

At BtB, I've started a series of recaps looking at the most valuable players at each position of all time, as measured by Rally's WAR database. Since I'm a Reds fan, I'm going to do a mirrored series here looking at past Reds greats. It will be a great way to help me learn some Reds history, and has the added bonus of keeping my mind off the current Reds team's woes.

Keep in mind a few caveats: the WAR values you see here are only for those seasons (or partial-seasons) players spent with the Reds. Second, WAR is not a perfect measure of value (I think it is the best available stat of its kind). And third, even if WAR was perfect in measuring what it tries to, career WAR value is necessarily the best way to evaluate who is the "best" player (i.e. peak seasons matter just as much as total career value when deciding things like that).

We'll begin the series with a Top-10 list of Reds catchers!

10. Ivey Wingo.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1915	13	3302	-63	0.313	-5	-1	48	7.3	1.5

This is the kind of lousy Reds fan I am: Wingo played in the second-most seasons by any Reds catcher, and ranks third in PA's among any Reds catcher. And I had never heard of the guy. Wingo wasn't a particularly great player (tied for lowest WAR/yr rate of anyone in the top-18 Reds catchers), but he played a long time, and at his retirement held the NL record for most games caught. His best year with the Reds was in 1917, when he hit 0.266/0.311/0.376 in 432 PA's in a league that averaged 0.249/0.305/0.328. That was good for a half-win above average, which translates to 2.3 wins above replacement that year. His tenure with the club included an appearance in the Reds' 1919 World Championship team, which (in)famously defeated the "Black Sox" that year. He also served as manager of the Reds for two whole games during the 1916 season, nestled between the managerial careers of Buck Herzog and Christy Mathewson. Wingo ended his career with the Reds.


9. Smoky Burgess. Reds Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1955	4	1227	22	0.356	0	0	13	8	4.6

The fun thing about team lists like this, and part of the reason I'm only doing a top-10 list, is that you get players making your top-10 who only played for the Reds for a few years, sometimes as a reserve--but were really good players during their time. Burgess is our first example of this. He was a very good player over a long career, and ranks 27th among MLB catchers in WAR overall. He played four of those seasons with the Reds, and put up outstanding numbers despite serving as the reserve/platoon partner for C Ed Bailey during three of those four years. As a hitter, he hit for good power, fine average, and walking at twice the rate he struck out. His 0.356 wOBA (which is park- and era-adjusted) ranks 4th-best among Reds catchers with more than 50 PA's.

He is also one of just four catchers to be elected into the Reds Hall of Fame (curiously, Bailey is not one of them). How that happened is somewhat inexplicable to me. Chris Eckes of the Reds passed on a bit of info via Greg in Atlanta on this: Burgess was elected in 1975, his 4th year on the ballot, edging out deadball era one year wonder Cy Seymour by just 800 votes. Apparently, it was just a weak year!


8. Johnny Edwards.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1961	7	2624	-53	0.312	4	1	44	8.2	2.2

Edwards broke in with the Reds and played as their starting catcher for six seasons before losing his job to a rookie. I'm sure that stung, but at least he can take heart knowing now that the rookie would go on to become the best catcher in MLB history. For his part, though, Edwards was an average-fielding backstop who put up four decent seasons of performance from 1962-1965 before falling off a cliff in 1966. 1963 and 1965 were 3-WAR seasons, but he fell apart and posted -0.5 WAR seasons in '66 and '67. Hard to keep your job doing that. In his best year, Edwards hit 0.267/0.353/0.474, showing nice power in slugging 17 home runs. He was traded for Pat Corrales in 1968.

7. Ray Mueller.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1943	6	1864	2	0.336	9	3	16	9.2	3.5

Mueller is #7 on our list due to a pair of three-WAR seasons and one other decent season. He came to the Reds after missing the '41 & '42 seasons following his time with the Pirates (possibly military service? Anyone know?). He is best known for catching 233 consecutive games during the '43, '44, and '46 seasons for the Reds (he did miss 1945 while serving in the Army). Mueller had a little bit of power, but his best offensive asset was his ability to get on base. During his years with the Reds, Mueller walked as much as he struck out, which helped him post back to back seasons with ~a 0.350 OBP. Being incredibly durable, at least for a few seasons, didn't hurt either.

6. Tommy Clarke.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1909	9	1935	7	0.339	5	2	37	10.6	3.8

Clarke overlapped with Ivey Wingo during the second half of his tenure with the Reds, but Clarke spent almost his entire career with the Reds and posted above-average offensive performance over that time. As a late-dead ball era hitter, I have a hard time evaluating his individual strengths and weaknesses. But while Clarke didn't seem to have much if any power, he seems similar to Mueller in that he excelled at getting on base, posting a 0.351 career OBP. Also, if his BR Wiki page is any indication, he sounds like he was a pretty fiesty individual.

5. Heinie Peitz.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1896	9	2949	-11	0.331	18	4	42	14.2	3.4

Heinie is our only 1800's player in the top-10, and ranks as the 5th-most valuable catcher in Reds' history. He joined the Reds in a trade prior to the 1896 season, and went on to be their starting catcher until he was traded to the Pirates in 1905. Just shy of an average hitter and an apparently competant fielder, he played a lot during his career with the Reds, which is a big part of how he got to this spot on our list. He also played all over the diamond: most of his starts were at catcher, but he played first, second, third, and even pitched on a few occasions

4. Bubbles Hargrave. Reds Hall of Fame

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1921	8	2605	75	0.368	2	1	23	18	4.8

The Reds have had some great names playing the two position: Ivey, Heinie, Smokey, Admiral...but no one can top Bubbles (though it was apparently a rather cruel nickname that referenced his stutter). But he was more than a name--he was an excellent ballplayer. Aside from Burgess, Hargrave is the first clearly above-average hitter on the list. He started behind the plate for 8 seasons following his arrival in 1921. Hargrave won a batting title in 1926, a season in which he posted a .406 OBP. But his best season was in 1923, when he hit 0.333/0.419/0.521, good for 4.6 wins above replacement. He received MVP consideration in three consecutive seasons from 1925-1927, and ended with a career line of 0.314/0.377/0.461 with the Reds.

3. Ed Bailey.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1953	9	2576	24	0.346	38	10	38	19.4	5.3

Bailey might not have been the hitter that Hargrave was, Bailey was an excellent fielder. In fact, on a per-PA (or inning played, if you like) basis, Bailey has better fielding numbers than any catcher in the top-25 Reds catcher list. Yes, that includes Johnny Bench. Bailey was also a fine hitter in his own right, with good power (28 HR in 1956) and strong on base skills, posting a career line (or close to it) of 0.261/0.359/0.438 with the Reds. Bailey was a 5-time All Star (4 with the Reds), so he clearly was recognized at the time as among the game' elite. Why isn't he in the Hall of Fame, despite his backup/platoon partner Smokey Burgess's membership? My guess is that it's bias against low-batting average players. More on Bailey below.

2. Ernie Lombardi. Reds Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1932	10	4277	114	0.366	-16	-3	35	27.1	4.4

When Bubbles Hargrave left the team after the 1928 season, the Reds didn't have to wait long for their next great catcher. Lombardi arrived in 1932 and was heralded as one of the better hitters of his time. He was a two-time batting champion, including the 1938 season in which he was voted league MVP. He also played in seven all-star games and in two world series--the Reds won one of them (over DET in 1940). Lombardi had good power, routinely posting between 10 and 20 home runs each season. And he walked his share, while hitting for excellent average. But while he was an excellent hitter, both Hargrave and Bailey posted better WAR rates. What made Lombardi special is that on top of all of his other accomplishments, he played a ton during his 10 seasons with the Reds, at least by catcher standards. He played at least 107 games every year with the Reds (average=120), and averaged 420 PA's per year during that time. He ended up with almost 1000 more PA's than Ivey Wingo, who received the third-most PA's of a Reds catcher. Lombardi ranks 20th on the all-time list of MLB catchers.

1. Johnny Bench. Baseball Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1967	17	8568	253	0.369	71	6	98	71.3	5.8

Surprise! Bench rates as the best catcher in MLB history, at least based on WAR. Here's what I wrote about him at BtB:

As a Reds fan I'm biased, but I think if you were to ask a large number of fans the name of the best catcher ever, Johnny Bench's name would be at the top of the poll. It's not a slam dunk, but Bench comes out four wins above Fisk--and Bench had 1200 fewer PA's and a much higher peak. Bench was a brilliant defender, but probably not the best defensive catcher of all time. And he was a superb hitter, but is probably not the best hitting catcher of all time. What sets him apart is that he was extremely good at both offense and defense: with game-changing defense and prodigious power, he redefined his position. No other catcher has ever hit 45 home runs in a season, and only one other Mike Piazza) has topped the 40-mark twice. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time MVP (second only to Berra), a 14-time All Star (13 consecutive), and the winner of 10 consecutive gold gloves. He was the best of the best, and I'm proud that he played for my team...it's nice to be proud of something these days.

Graphics

Reds Catcher Timeline

Below is a graph of total WAR from Reds catchers (primary position only) since 1890. The line is a 10-year moving average.

Striking that since Bench retired, the Reds haven't had a long-term, quality catcher. Best year was 2005 with the LaRue/Valentin combo. Catcher is clearly a position at which the Reds have historically been strong, at least going back to Hargrave. Who will be the next great Reds catcher?

WAR Career Trajectory Graph

Here are the four Reds Hall of Fame catchers, plus Ed Bailey.

Bench was obviously the best, but the most interesting thing to me about this graph is the Bailey/Lombardi comparison. Lombardi was much more productive over his full career. But during their best five seasons, Bailey was probably Lombardi's equal. Bailey should be in the Reds Hall of Fame, at least by my judgment.

Top-25 Reds Catchers, by WAR

Table is sortable--click on the header by which you wish to sort!

Rank	Name	Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1	Bench, Johnny	1967	17	8568	253	0.369	71	6	98	71.3	5.8
2	Lombardi, Ernie	1932	10	4277	114	0.366	-16	-3	35	27.1	4.4
3	Bailey, Ed	1953	9	2576	24	0.346	38	10	38	19.4	5.3
4	Hargrave, Bubbles	1921	8	2605	75	0.368	2	1	23	18	4.8
5	Peitz, Heinie	1896	9	2949	-11	0.331	18	4	42	14.2	3.4
6	Clarke, Tommy	1909	9	1935	7	0.339	5	2	37	10.6	3.8
7	Mueller, Ray	1943	6	1864	2	0.336	9	3	16	9.2	3.5
8	Edwards, Johnny	1961	7	2624	-53	0.312	4	1	44	8.2	2.2
9	Burgess, Smoky	1955	4	1227	22	0.356	0	0	13	8	4.6
10	Wingo, Ivey	1915	13	3302	-63	0.313	-5	-1	48	7.3	1.5
11	Vaughn, Farmer	1892	8	2585	-52	0.312	9	2	22	6.7	1.8
12	LaRue, Jason	1999	8	2516	-59	0.308	7	2	42	6.2	1.7
13	McLean, Larry	1906	7	2251	-47	0.311	8	2	36	6	1.9
14	Seminick, Andy	1952	4	1122	-4	0.331	5	3	10	5	3.1
15	Taubensee, Eddie	1994	7	2291	7	0.339	-57	-17	31	4.8	1.5
16	Pavletich, Don	1957	9	1206	13	0.347	-18	-10	6	4.4	2.6
17	Schlei, Admiral	1904	5	1675	-33	0.312	2	1	27	4.2	1.8
18	Diaz, Bo	1985	5	1672	-53	0.299	21	9	26	4.1	1.7
19	Oliver, Joe	1989	8	2598	-87	0.296	10	3	43	3.5	0.9
20	Ross, Dave	2006	3	795	-14	0.315	10	9	14	3.3	2.9
21	Lamanno, Ray	1941	5	1536	-40	0.305	1	0	13	2.6	1.2
22	Wood, Bob	1898	3	492	7	0.351	-3	-4	7	2.6	3.7
23	Campbell, Gilly	1935	3	585	2	0.339	-1	-1	5	2.4	2.9
24	Picinich, Val	1926	3	810	-8	0.324	0	0	8	2.4	2.1
25	Hershberger, Willard	1938	3	427	2	0.34	0	0	4	2	3.3

Next up: First Basemen!

Update (9/15/09): I regret that I mistakenly neglected to include Reds teams prior to 1890 in the above analysis. As a result, some players were mistakenly omitted, though it did not affect rankings among the top-10. Players in the top-25 should have also included Pop Snyder (5 seasons, 6.8 WAR), Deacon White (3 seasons, but 6.2 WAR), and Jim Keenan (7 seasons, 5.7 WAR)