Tony Cingrani to the bullpen

Tony Cingrani could be a weapon for the Reds out of
the bullpen this season.  But does it matter if the game
is already out of hand?
Photo credit: Patrick Reddick

There was big news out of Goodyear today when Bryan Price, for the first time since last season, indicated that Tony Cingrani is destined for the pen.  Some quotes from Doug Miller's article:

"It means that we're going to get Iglesias stretched out, and as of right now, we're looking at Tony as more of a relief option than as a starting option," Reds manager Bryan Price said. "We have to find a way to get out of the gates strong, and at this point in time, the feeling was that organizationally, Tony's better suited for us at the moment as a relief pitcher."
....
"We want to keep him strong and healthy, and we've had a hard time doing that the last two years. … So one of the things that we hope is that pitching out of the bullpen will allow him to be strong and remain strong, and then evaluate if we think it's a good idea to look at him as a starter in the future."

As I wrote last season, Cingrani has seen some fairly dramatic fluctuations in his fastball velocity in his short big-league career.  When throwing out of the pen in 2013, he showed about a 2 mph jump in velocity.  And last year, just before he went on the DL, he showed a severe loss in velocity, and struggled with arm problems the rest of the season.

In a lot of ways, moving Cingrani to the bullpen makes a lot of sense.  First, he's left-handed.  With Chapman the closer and Marshall perpetually injured, the only lefty the Reds have in the bullpen available in the late innings is Manny Parra.  Second, he is exactly the kind of guy that you'd expect to do really well in the pen: he has a fairly limited repertoire highlighted by an explosive fastball that he has already demonstrated that he can throw harder in shorter stints.  Third, as Price indicated, perhaps a move to the pen will be easier on his arm, allowing him to stay healthy and have a longer, more productive career.

That said, as Doug pointed out, he's had good success as a MLB starter despite his apparent limitations.  In 157 career MLB innings as a starter, he has a 3.78 xFIP and has struck out more than a batter per inning.  Steamer projects him for a 3.66 ERA, while ZiPS projects him for a 3.98 ERA.  I sort of expected the Reds to let him pitch his way out of the role, but that's not in the cards.

Still, given that the Reds have DeScalfani and Iglesias as viable options for #4 and #5 starters, and can fill in for Homer Bailey with one of the veteran replacement player cogs in camp, I can be on board with them shifting Cingrani to the pen to start the season.

But then Price said this:

"The thing is, when we have veteran guys like Marquis and Maholm, you're not going to use them for one start," Price said. "If they're going to be on our team, the hope is that they're on our team for an entire season, if not longer. And that's how we have to look at that. … You can back-and-forth a young guy. You can start a game or two and then go down to the Minor Leagues or go to the bullpen and help us as a long guy. So Marquis and Maholm are looking more like long-term, start-to-finish options for us."

...honestly, I'm speechless.  What?

Update: I'm still speechless, but fortunately Dave Cameron is not.  And he's right.

2014 Reds Preview: Bullpen

2014 Reds Season Preview

• Introduction
• Position Players
• Starting Pitchers
• Bullpen
• Wrap-Up

Today, we turn our attention to the Bullpen.

While Aroldis Chapman won't start the season with the Reds, signs are good that he'll be able to return and rejoin the squad mid-season.  Therefore, I'm leaving his brilliant projection.  Time will only tell how quickly he is able to return to his level of dominance--I mostly worry about his control in the short term.

In the meantime, with both Broxton and Marshall likely starting the year on the DL, the names being mentioned for 9th-inning duties include Sam LeCure, J.J. Hoover, Manny Parra, and...Logan Ondrusek?  I'm all for the first three, but I was surprised to hear Ondrusek's name mentioned and immediately thought it was another example of the Reds loving him a bit too much.  But when I pulled up his numbers, I was surprised: Ondrusek arguably posted his best year of his career last season, despite the career high ERA.  His k/9 skyrocketed over 8 per nine for the first time, while his walk rate fell to a career low.  It was a far cry from the horrific 6 k/9 : 5 bb/9 season he posted in 2013.  I don't know if he can replicate last year's peripherals.  The projections sure don't think so.  But if he can, I have a bit more hope than I did.

The other three all project well; Sam LeCure (I heart @mrlecure), Manny Parra, and (to a lesser degree) J.J. Hoover all look really solid.  Parra probably should get a projection bump given that he has so dramatically changed his repertoire; he's not the same pitcher he was in prior seasons.  Things drop off pretty quickly after that, but any GM worth his salt should be able to scrounge up a decent middle reliever in a pinch.

Aside from all the injuries, one of the big concerns will be Jonathan Broxton.  Everything about him indicates decline.  His fastball velocity is down, last year dipping below 94 mph for the first time in his career.  And he's mostly a fastball pitcher, throwing four-seamers, sinkers, cutters at almost equal frequencies (~30% each), with only the occasional slider or curve.  I'm no pitching expert.  But I do know that 94 mph isn't very special in a bullpen arm, and I wonder if he should consider mixing in more off-speed stuff to be effective.

Next up...putting it all together again...

Price on bullpen use

Sean Marshall has historically had good success against
both righties and lefties.  Photo Credit: spablab

I thought this was an interesting comment from Bryan Price on bullpen usage:

"I've said to myself I don't know what it's like to be an everyday player professionally," he said. "But I do understand what it's like to be a pitcher and what these guys go through on days they don't pitch. 'Is so-in-so available?' Well, we got him hot three times yesterday and he pitched the two games before.

"It wasn't really a day off. Sometimes, as a manager (who was a position player), you may see that the guy got loose. But they see it as a day off. It's not. It's completely different. If you don't respect that, you end up over-utilizing your guys – even if they pitch in 65 games.
...
"There are going to be times when you bring in a right-hander to get that right-hander out based on the history of the pitcher that's in there at the time. But, to me, it just doesn't bode well when you match up. I don't like situational match-up pitchers because they beat up you bullpen. I've never liked it. I'd much prefer to have guys who get lefties and righties out.

"You never want to lose a game because you feel like you have the wrong matchup in," he said. "But if you want the right matchup every single game, you're going to blow out your bullpen."

It's going to be interesting to see whether his stance evolves over the season.

I think he makes a lot of good points, and important ones.  There's no question that platoon splits are real, and you absolutely do gain when you use righty-on-righty and lefty-on-lefty matchups.  I imagine that there are other kinds of match-ups that are worth exploiting, like using sinkerballers, breaking-ball specialists, or power arms against hitters that are particularly vulnerable to those pitcher types.  But I also think he's right about the importance of considering how often a guy is asked to get up and get warm as part of a reliever's usage load.

This is going to sound ridiculous (it's akin to pontificating about how to fly an airplane based on experience playing a flight simulator video game).  But my favorite baseball "video game" is Out of the Park baseball, where you play the role of the general manager and manager.  In terms of reliever usage, what I've taken to doing when deciding what reliever to bring in is to consider at least the next three batters that they will face.  Mostly, I consider handedness, but there's always some weighting for quality as well.  Ideally, there will be a rhythm to the opposing lineup, such that there is an optimal time to switch between a lefty and righty reliever that is spaced by at least three hitters.  Best case scenario, I can plan several innings in advance.  This lets me play matchups, at least in a coarse sense, but also avoid overtaxing my bullpen by using relievers for only a batter or two at a time...except in emergencies, of course!

I think (hope?) that's what Price is talking about here.  Yes, Sean Marshall will get to throw against righties.  But one should still try, at least generally, to use your top lefty reliever against the opposing team's top lefty hitters.  It's much better than blindly following a "Broxton in the 7th, Marshall in the 8th, Chapman in the 9th" plan.