Prospecting Reds Hitters with Steamer

This is my annual look at projections for Reds top prospects.  As with last year, I'm using Steamer projections, which estimate a player's production if they were to play in the major leagues this year.  Most of the players below will not play in the big leagues this season, but it still provides some indication of current expected performance level.  I find it a useful exercise.

New this year, I've added Reds players who are no longer "prospects" because they do not have rookie eligibility, but are within the same age range as the players listed below.  Often times, we get really excited about 24-year old "prospects" who are just arriving in The Show, even though there are established big league players already on the roster of the same age as the new guys.  

As I've done before, we'll group them year by year.  Today we'll look at hitters, and the next time we'll look at pitchers.

Age-25 Players

Scott Schebler was acquired in the Todd Frazier trade.  He just arrived in the big leagues last season, but it's worth remembering that he is the same ages as both Billy Hamilton and Tucker Barnart.  Schebler does grade out as having a better bat than either of those two, primarily due to his substantial power.  But while Schebler players corner outfield, as has some questions about his defense, Hamilton and Barnhart are considered plus (if not elite) defenders at a premier defensive position.  As a result, Hamilton and Barnhart are both projected as providing value, while Schebler projects as a replacement player.  Seems about right.

That said, I don't really have a problem with Schebler getting a decent chunk of at-bats in left field.  I don't really see a better option, and a Duvall/Schebler platoon has at least some potential to provide decent pop.  If the dice roll the right way, there's a scenario in which they could even provide something close to league-average production.

Age-24 Players

I think this one's really interested.  With Zack Cozart apparently healthy, Eugenio Suarez is moving over to third base to replace Todd Frazier.  Suarez wasn't embarrassing at shortstop, but his -13 run UZR rating indicates that a move down the defensive spectrum is a good idea.  The Fan Scouting Report on Suarez rates him as having good arm strength, reactions, and first steps, but below-average hands, and well-below average throwing accuracy.  Hopefully, moving to third base will help, provide he can get those throws on the mark from across the diamond.  In any case, Suarez rates as a solid player, right around league average.

Rating above Suarez in 2015 value, however, is Eric Jagielo.  Steamer, at least, thinks that Jagielo's power will play just fine in the majors, and soon.  As I said in my piece on the Chapman trade, Jagielo has hit everywhere he has played thus far, despite the critics of his swing.  Maybe pushing him to start in AAA isn't such a bad idea after all?  It's worth noting that ZiPS isn't nearly as high on Jagielo as Steamer is.  There's something about him that makes me think of Will Middlebrooks (I suppose that's not the most ringing endorsement).

Kyle Waldrop was getting a lot of attention this time last year, but ended up having a miserable season that was plagued by injuries.  His projection certainly would indicate that more time in AAA is needed before he's ready; like scouts have been saying all along, Waldrop may be most likely to provide value as a bench bat with power, rather than in a future starting lineup.

Age-23 Players

Alex Blandino seems to polarize prospect writers.  Many early on didn't like him because of concerns about how the slap-oriented Stanford hitting approach.  He probably isn't going to stick at shortstop.  Nevertheless, he's performed well so far in his career.  He did see his production drop a bit in the second half while in AA, but a closer look indicates that some of that might have been due to bad BABIP luck.  He did, after all, maintain his strikeout rate and actually improve his walk rate in AA.  I've always liked him.  He's not particularly young, though, and he may not be a top-tier prospect, but there's a universe out there in which he turns into a Neil Walker-type (although Walker had played a full season at AAA by Blandino's age).

Yorman Rodriguez has been on the Reds' prospect list forever and ever.  But now there is a problem: he's out of options, but he's probably not ready for the majors yet.  His been transitioning away from CF over the past year, he still tends to be aggressive and prone to a strikeout, and doesn't have a ton of power to make up for it.  There's a decent chance that the Reds could lose him at the end of spring traning if they try to sneak him through waivers.  The question is whether that's really all that big of a deal.

Finally...sigh...Phillip Ervin.  Ervin keeps flashing occasional excellence, and scouts like his tools.  But he just can't seem to put it together.  He should begin the season in AA.  Of concern, in my view, was a trend toward moving him out of center field last season.  If he can't play center, then the requirements on his bat become that much greater.  Never say never with former top prospects, but I'll just say that this would be a good year for Ervin to turn his career around.  

Finally, Jake Cave was a rule-5 selection this year.  He doesn't project any better than Ervin, although he's probably a better defender.  Still, he doesn't seem like the best use of a roster spot, as much as it might be fun to keep him.

Age-22 Players

Jesse Winker is the Reds' best position prospect.  He already projects to have above-average walk rates, an acceptable strikeout rate, and to hold his own if promoted this season.  Odds are that he'll have to wait until later this summer to arrive in the majors, or even until next year.  But he recovered nicely from an early-season swoon last year, and all indications are that he'll be a solid big-league hitter when he arrives.  If his defense can rate out as at least average in the corner, and if he can add some power, he could be cornerstone piece of the next good Reds team.  If not, he should at least be a useful second-division starter.  And second-division fits the Reds nicely right now...

Jose Peraza is the prize of the Todd Frazier deal.  I wish I could be more impressed.  No power, doesn't walk, and a non-elite glove.  His supporters point to Dee Gordon.  I hope they're right.

Age-21 Players

Gavin LaValley hit #10 on some lasts in last year's offseason.  2015 didn't go as well as the previous years did, and he has yet to show much home run power in his first few seasons.  But his K-BB% rates are pretty good (career ~10% walk rate, ~20% K rate), and he's young.  He should be headed to high-A this year

Age-19 Players

2015 1st-round pick Tyler Stephenson had a nice debut season last year.  While he only hit a single home run, he showed good K-BB% rates and slugged out 15 doubles.  Catching prospects take a while to develop, sometimes, and if Devin Mesoraco is indeed healthy, the Reds can afford to be patient with him.

I will say this: I have a blanket worry about catching prospects anymore.  I used to be so excited about the notion of developing a good-hitting catcher, and the Reds certainly have had some success with that approach (Mesoraco, Grandal, Hanigan, LaRue for a few years, etc).  But catching is a brutal job, and it can wear away hitting talent (see Mauer, Joe).  If someone's bat is ahead of his glove, I'd be sorely tempted to find them another position while they're young, and try to fill in catching holes with guys like Welington Castillo.  It always seems like there are decent catchers available for close to the league minimum.  

Comps for Peraza & Schebler

Scott Schebler the next Josh Donaldson?
Well, no.  Photo credit: Dustin Nosler

Chris Mitchell at FanGraphs ran his KATOH system on the Reds' new prospects, and posted tables showing their comparables in his system.  Comparables are always flawed...but they are still interesting.  Here's what he had for Peraza and Schebler:

Jose Peraza

Top Comps: Miguel Cairo & Joaquin Arias
Best-case Comps: Jacoby Ellsbury, Eric Young (sr.), Adam Kennedy, Damion Easley, Omar Infante.

We all know Miguel Cairo, he of the good season or two as a super-utility guy for the Reds.

Joaquin Arias is currently on a minor league deal with the Diamondbacks entering his age-31 season.  He didn't show Peraza's speed in the minors, but he certainly profiles as a high-contact, low-walk, minimal-power infielder.  Across 1100+ PA's, he has 0.3 WAR to his name, mostly driven by his baserunning (+2 runs over his career).

Of the good comps, Ellsbury, Young, and Easley always walked.  Omar Infante wasn't exactly patient, but also had acceptable walk numbers in some of his minor league seasons.  But Adam Kennedy seems about right for a good-case comp.  He wasn't patient, but developed modest power, and made enough contact to get his OBP up high enough to be a decent starter at second base.  He peaked out as a 3-win player for the Angels from 2002-2005...And then played for the Cardinals while now-Reds President Walt Jocketty was the GM in 2007.  So.

Needless to say, none of this is making me feel much better about him as a prospect.  Mitchell correctly points out that Peraza has been playing at very high levels for his age.  That's probably the best thing you can say about him right now.

Scott Schebler

Top Comps: Benji Gil, Josh Wilson
Best-case Comps: Ian Kinsler, Vernon Wells, Josh Donaldson

Benji Gil and Josh Wilson had similar walk- and strikeout profiles to Schebler, and flashed modest power in the minor leagues.  Neither posted the kind of home run production that Schebler has, however.  Wilson has never translated any of that power in the major leagues, whereas Gil at least had a few decent season in part-time roles for the Rangers and Angels.  The difference, however, is that Gil and Wilson both broke in as shortstops.  Schebler, on the other hand, is limited to the corner outfield, and there's no indication that he has any hope of being better than average over there (...and he's probably worse than average).

Those upside comps, though, are enough to make me a little giddy inside.  Until I go back and read the scouting questions on Schebler.  He's not going to be one of those guys.  But maybe he can still help the team, at least in a platoon role.

Reds acquire Peraza, Schebler, and Dixon for Todd Frazier

Farewell to Todd Frazier.
Photo credit: Arturo Pardavilla III

The +Cincinnati Reds finally made their first substantial move of the offseason, trading away Todd Frazier to the White Sox for a trio of players that arrive from the Dodgers.  The Dodgers received their own set of prospects from the White Sox for their part in this three-team trade.

The deal comes on the heels of the failed attempt to trade Aroldis Chapman to the Dodgers about a week ago, which (despite protests to the contrary from the Reds) were likely derailed when information about the alleged domestic violence that he committed against his girlfriend in October.  The key player rumored to be involved in that deal was Jose Peraza, and that very player was delivered to the Reds in this deal.  Therefore, that's one way to view this trade: the Reds got their guy.

In general, the Reds have been rumored to be seeking MLB-ready prospects in return for the players they are trying to move (Chapman, Bruce, etc).  This is in keeping with Bob Castellini's assurances that this rebuild will not represent a long-term derailment of the team.  Get players who can contribute immediately, surround them with talent already in the system, keep the players already controlled long term, and you have the Reds back into contention within a few years.  That's the apparent strategy at play from the Reds' perspective.

Unfortunately, the initial reactions of observers around baseball have been almost universally poor.  While you will see praise for Jose Peraza among some prospectors, most agree that the return the Dodgers got, headlined by Frankie Montas, was superior to that of the Reds:

Immediate question: Why didn’t #Reds take #WhiteSox’s package instead of #Dodgers’? Rival execs think LAD did much better than CIN.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 16, 2015

Let's work through the players one by one, starting with the player the Reds gave up.

Todd Frazier, RHB, 3B, 29.9 years old

I was never a big Frazier believer as he came up through.  In hindsight, I'm not positive why.  I guess his numbers were more just good-at-everything rather than spectacular at any one thing.  His AA and AAA slugging percentages were in the high-.400's rather than the .500+, his OBP was usually around .350 rather than .400.  He was always a little bit old for his level (or, at least, not young).  But he hit all the way through the minors, and held his own during his debut.  His During first full season with the team in 2012, he tied his career high for home runs in a season despite only getting 465 PA's.  And his power continued to be a surprisingly (to me) important part of his package, showing himself to be a legitimate 30 homer threat over the past two years.  Yes, he struggled in the second half last year, but at the same time he was beyond brilliant in the first half.  He did both of those things.  He's posted 4+ wins each of the last two years thanks to an above-average bat and plus fielding at a corner slot.

The White Sox will have two years of control on him left.  Next year, he's under the second year of a two year contract and will $12 million contract.  His last year of arbitration, he might earn upwards of $16 million...or maybe even a bit more, if he posts another power-heavy season like he did last year.

Steamer projects him as a 3.2 WAR player next year, and a simple .5-WAR would have him at 2.7 WAR the following year.  Assuming that we're somewhere around $7.5 million/WAR right now to replace his production via free agency, that puts his overall value at about $45 million--a $12 million surplus over his salary.  He's a very good player, and a nice asset for a club.  He should do very well in the White Sox' homer-friendly ballpark.

Jose Peraza, RHB 2B/SS, 21.7 years old

Peraza is unquestionably the headliner in terms of the Reds' return.  He entered last season as a top-50 prospect on many lists coming on the heels of a strong 2014 campaign in which he showed a high-average game with some modest doubles-power and tons of speed, swiping 60 stolen bases for the second-straight year.  But his BABIP fell back down to earth when he arrived at AAA in 2015, and with it came much of his shine.  When he was traded to the Dodgers as part of the mid-season three-team deal with the Marlins and Braves, Kiley McDaniels wrote this about him.

Compared to Luis Castillo or Juan Pierre early in his pro career, Peraza’s light has dimmed a bit in 2015 due to offensive questions, but he’s still an elite runner that’s near big league ready and can play multiple positions up the middle.

His batting line was nearly identical with the Dodgers.  Peraza's game profiled as that of a pretty limited ballplayer last year.  He could run, and he didn't strike out much.  But his absurdly low walk rate (only two qualified MLB players had walk rates under 3% last year: Jean Segura and Salvador Perez) suggests that he achieves his low strikeout rate in part by being willing to swing at just about anything; it's hard to strike out when you're swinging at the first few pitches every at bat.  Bed Badler of Baseball America, at least, disagrees, arguing that he has a legitimate hit tool and could hit for average in the majors.  But, after seeing his numbers, it's hard not to read the scouting reports and think that his supporters are just getting swept away by his stolen base totals.

If he was a defensive genius at shortstop, as one might hope for such a fast player, I could live with a limited offensive skillset in a prospect.  But most scouting reports I've read today peg him as only average at shortstop.

For a moment, I thought the Reds might hope to put him in center field to platoon with Billy Hamilton.  That could be intriguing, and at least is creative.  But Peraza is a right-handed hitter, and Hamilton's "strong" side is as a right-handed batter as well.

On the whole, while I'm trying, there's not much that I can get excited about here.

Scott Schelber, LHB COF, 25.1 years old

Schebler does not have an elite prospect pedigree.  He was a 26th-round selection by the Dodgers in 2010 out of high school, although he did get a $300,000 signing bonus to entice him away from college.  And to his credit, he produced almost immediately.  Power was his main calling card, and he showed good home run power throughout most of his minor league career.  In 2014, coming off his best minor league season for the Dodgers AA affiliate (154 wRC+), McDaniel wrote this about him:

One scout put a Brandon Moss comp on Schebler and a bat-first, lefty-hitting outfielder with a fringy to average bat and above average raw power. Schebler is listed at 6’1/208 but will actually flash plus speed at times, though his arm and instincts are below average, limiting him to left field. He doesn’t have big bat speed, so some scouts are still wart, but he fits the bill of an under-the-radar performer who could surprise.

2015 didn't go as well.  While he maintained his strikeout and walk rates against better-quality pitching in AAA, his power seemed largely to disappear.  He hit just 13 home runs and sported a .169 ISO, well below the norms of his minor league career.  Given the scouting questions about his bat, that's a worrying performance.

Nevertheless, the Reds' interest seems clear: they need a left fielder.  I'm sure someone in the Reds' front office is thinking that a platoon between Schebler and Adam Duvall might be good enough to post a couple of wins above replacement next year.  Maybe it'll work.  Or, maybe major league pitchers will tear him apart.

Brandon Dixon, RHB 2B, 23.9 years old

Dixon actually has some pedigree.  He was a 3rd-round selection in the 2013 draft.  Unfortunately, prior to the start of last season, he'd never shown any indication that he could hit at all.  He might have a some power for a middle-infielder, but he didn't walk, struck out a lot, and was well below league-average during his first two professional seasons.  In 2015, he got off to a nice start to the season when repeating high-A, slugging 11 home runs in just 193 PA's to go with improved walk rates.  Upon his promotion to AA, however, he quickly returned to the same type of hitter he'd been before.  He hit well in the Arizona Fall league, but...::shrug::  As J.J. Cooper said in C. Trent's profile of the prospects, "Dixon is a lottery ticket at best. I don’t think he would crack the (Reds’) Top 30 right now. He has some raw power, but his hit tool hasn’t come along enough to get to it."

Conclusions

I'm not very excited about this haul. What I can see in the stats don't look very impressive for these guys.  Furthermore, the consensus on the twitterer is that the Reds did not do well here.  Most writers, and especially most of their baseball executive sources, seem to strongly prefer the package that the Dodgers received, which clearly could have gone to the Reds if he wanted it.  They chose Peraza instead, so hopefully they are right about him.

I'm worried that the Reds were too focused on acquiring major league-ready talent in this deal.  With Reds owner Bob Castellini pushing to make the rebuild as short as possible, it might be that the Reds front office couldn't accept younger, but higher-upside options.  I love MLB-ready talent too, but those players come at a premium.  After all, if they're ready, that likely means that the team who controls them is planning to move them onto their own active rosters.

In the end, it's just one more frustration in a depressing offseason for the Reds.  As C. Trent noted today (and Steve Manucso and I discussed last week), the Reds had the chance to deal both Chapman and Frazier at the trade deadline last summer, and probably for a better return.  There was even a consensus that they should have been traded at the time among most observers.  And now, this might well be the best collection of prospects the Reds will acquire this offseason.  And that's depressing.