Better Know a Red: Keyvius Sampson

RHP Keyvius Sampson made his MLB starting debut on Sunday afternoon with a well-pitched ballgame against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Sampson was not a guy on my radar, but he impressed me with good velocity and a nice-looking curveball that he seemed able to throw for strikes.  Here's a profile on the latest Reds rookie to debut in their starting rotation.

Player Profile: History and Statistics

Sampson was drafted in the 4th round of the 2009 draft by the San Diego Padres out of Forest High School of Ocala, Florida.  Sampson is the 3rd major leaguer to hail from his school, joining Reid Nichols ('80-'87) and Jonathan Johnson ('98-'03).  Sampson was promoted all the way to low-A during his first season, albeit only for two games (on start).  The next year, he also threw for the Padres' low-A team, though again in limited action (10 starts, 43 innings).  By 2011, as a 20-year old, he was pitching for their A-ball affiliate, and he progressively was promoted a level per year, reaching AAA by 2013 as a 22-year old.  His minor league career started off brilliantly, with outstanding strikeout rates and acceptable walk rates to go with generally dominant performances.  Marc Hulet ranked him as the Padres' #6 prospect prior to the 2014 season, praising his velocity and noting he had a "potentially plus slider" and a quality change-up, but inconsistent control.

However, once he reached AAA, the more advanced hitters at that level seemed to have the distinct upper-hand. From 2013-2014, he posted an ERA in the high 6's, with a very comparable FIP.  The most obvious problem was that while he continued to post good strikeout rates, his walk rates ballooned to almost 7 bb/9.  In his offseason look at the Padres, Kiley McDaniel again praised Sampson's velocity and change-up, but expressed major concerns about his command and his slider.

The Padres put him on waivers this offseason, and the Reds grabbed him in January.  This year, in limited action the Bats, he hasn't been much better.  His walk rate has "improved" to 5 bb/9, but his strikeout rate has also slipped a bit.  He was doing well at avoiding the long ball, but that could easily have just been luck--in his first game with the Reds, he posted high fly ball rates (36% ground ball rate), although he had a dandy 6:1 k/bb ratio in his six solid innings of work.  The question with Sampson clearly seems to be whether he can avoid walks well enough to let his stuff play up.  Stats:

Repertoire

Given the scouting reports, I expected to see fastballs, change-ups, and sliders.  But this is what we saw:

I don't know if the curve is a new pitch for him or not.  The FanGraphs minor league guys always focused on his other pitches, but this tidbit from mlbtraderumors on the day he was DFA'd by the Padres this offseason mentions him scrapping the pitch.  Nevertheless, Sunday he was throwing it 23% of the time, and to great effect: Brooks Baseball describes it as generating an "extremely high number of swings and misses" compared to other curveballs.  It is the pitch that stood out to me watching him.  I saw him drop it in for a strikeout looking, and then saw it drop into the dirt to induce a chance.  The pitch looked great; hopefully he can repeat that next time.

It's tempting to go further with this, but with only one start to chew on I think it'd be grasping for signal amongst too much noise.  The challenge for the Reds, and for Keyvius Sampson, will be to keep him throwing the ball over the plate over the remainder of the year.  If he can do that, I'd wager he has the stuff to have some success.  If not, things won't be pretty.

Better Know a Red: Kevin Gregg

Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Kevin Gregg was signed on a minor league deal over the offseason, and yesterday was added into the major league roster in a surprise decision to take him over Sam LeCure.  Gregg, along with fellow newcomer Burke Badenhop, will be counted on to help turn around the Reds 2015 bullpen after a rough year in 2015.  As a guy with 177 career saves to his name, he would seem to bring some pedigree.  He entered pro-ball, however, as a 15th-round selection out of Corvallis High School, Oregon, when the Oakland Athletics took him in 1996.  It wasn't until 2003, however, that he made his big league debut after becoming a six-year minor league free agent and then ultimately signing with the Anaheim Angels.

Throughout his minor league career, he was primarily a starting pitcher, but it wasn't until 2004 with the Angels as a 26-year old that he finally was tried in the major league bullpen.  He was reasonably effective in two of his three seasons with the Angels, but then was traded in the pre-2007 offseason to the Florida Marlins in exchange for a younger Chris Resop.  There, the Marlins tapped him as the closer, a role that he would hold for at least part of six of the next seven years for five different clubs.  Here are his career stats:

To be honest, Gregg's career as a closer seems like a shining example of how a mediocre pitcher can put up pretty nice save numbers.  He's had some good seasons.  In 2010, for example, he posted an 84 ERA- to go with his 37 saves for the Blue Jays.  But over 2007-2011, his stint as a more or less full-time closer, was marked by an ERA only about 10% better than average (89 ERA-).  He has always posted decent to excellent strikeout rates, but he has also almost always had poor walk rates and, often, fairly poor ground ball rates to boot.  His stats profile looks like the classic hard-thrower who doesn't know where it's going.

I was surprised to learn, therefore, that he really doesn't throw that hard.  He's a big guy (listed at 6-6, 245 lbs), but his highest average fastball velocity was in 2008 when he threw 93 mph.  That number has been falling in recent years, and was in the 90-91 mph range the last few seasons.  So what does he throw?

He throws a pretty full complement of pitches, which is probably how he stuck as a starter through the minors.  It also seems like a pretty good indication of why he was tapped as a closer so often: if a team doesn't have a dominant pitcher, they should at least look to someone who can get batters from both sides out.  The mix of a splitter, cutter, and curve-ball gives him weapons that break both directions on the plate, which means he should be effective against both righties and lefties.  That fits his results, too: over his career, he's allowed a .311 wOBA vs. left-handed batters and a .320 wOBA vs. right-handed batters.  That's a reverse split, with about 1500 batters faced in each case.

His cutter seems a little slider-like to me, especially given how much slower it comes in than his true fastball.  It has a little bit of rise to it (~7" vertical rise), however, so "cutter" seems like a good definition of the pitch to me.

One thing that did catch my eye with his Brooks pages, however: Gregg's velocity has been up this spring:

It's not a big spike.  But after being down the last few years, his spring average of 93.2 mph is his best monthly mark since June 2011 (93.6 mph).  I imagine that helped his cause a bit with the Reds opting to take a flier on him.

2015 Outlook

Gregg is entering his age-37 season, and his projections are ugly.  Steamer projects a 4.18 ERA.  ZiPS projects 4.64.  He is coming off season-ending surgery last August to remove bone chips in his elbow, a similar procedure (if memory serves) to what Mat Latos had prior to the 2014 season.  His velocity seems good this spring, based on a handful of pitchf/x games, and the Reds seem happy with his performance.

If he's right, the dream is that Gregg can provide quality middle-relief against batters from both sides of the plate.  And yeah, sure, maybe he's got another quality season in the tank.  The concern, of course, is that if he can't keep his walk rates down (and he usually can't), his fly ball tendencies might lead to some big innings for the opposing team.  There's not much else that we can do other than hope, at least, that he can down the fort long enough for Sam LeCure to figure things out in AAA.

The New Manny Parra

Back in December, Redleg Nation released a fantastic interview with Mack Jenkins, the Reds' Bullpen Coach last season.  It's a great listen--Jenkins really impressed me, and provided a great, practical insight into what it is to be a pitching coach.  I listened to it at the time, but never had a chance to follow up on it.

One of the things I found most interesting was the discussion of what happened with Manny Parra last season.  He described Bryan Price giving him a project to look into Manny Parra's pitches and mechanics, and try to find a way to help him improve.  One of the things he reported back was that Parra's curveball was really inconsistent, and that really hurt his performance.  So, they encouraged him to drop it in favor of a slider.

Not that I doubted it, but I wanted to look at his pitchf/x profiles.  Here are Parra's 2009-2012 pitches:

You can see him grade out as having a fastball, a split finger, and that curveball.  Note that each dot above is an individual month during that time period, not an individual pitch.

Here are his 2013 pitches:

And there's the slider!  Note that the y-axis changed here.  The curveball came in around 77mph and had a spin axis over 300 degrees, whereas the new slider comes in at 83 or so with a sub-300 degree spin, so it's clearly a new pitch.  Just to show this more clearly, here are his 2012-2013 pitches:

All of the sliders were thrown in 2013, and all of the curveballs were thrown in 2012.

Another interesting thing: it wasn't an occasional-use pitch for him.  In 2013, he threw his slider 41% of the time, compared to just 18% for his curve in 2012.  

Looking at his stats:

The biggest change of substance in his record looks to be a dramatic improvement in his walk rate.  He also posted a career-best BABIP, though it was still above league-average (last year that was 0.297).  I think that both of those things could potentially be attributed to swapping his curve for a controllable, effective slider.  Now he has a pitch that he can throw for strikes, and can induce strikes (45% of swings at the slider were whiffs last year).  And if hitters are whiffing at the pitch, they're going to be making weaker contact with it when they do strike true.  Finally, if they have to beware of his breaking ball, they can't sit on his fastball and sinker.  

Kudos to Parra, Mark Jenkins, and Bryan Price for figuring this out!  I love seeing pitchers making real, measurable changes in their approach that result in such dramatic performance improvements.  Here's hoping he can do it again this year!

A look at Griffey's career

Griffey's era with the Reds came to an anticlimactic end last week in a trade to the White Sox for a couple of scrubs. And while his career can't be said to be over yet--he's given no indications that he's retiring thus far--I wanted to take a quick look back at his impressive career.

George Kenneth Griffey, Jr., was the first overall selection in the 1987 amateur draft out of Moeller High School in Cincinnati. Other notables taken in the first round include Jack McDowell (5th), Kevin Appier (9th), Delino DeShields (11th), Mike Remlinger (16th), Jack Armstrong (18th), Craig Biggio (22nd), Pete Harnisch (27th), and Travis Fryman (30th). Pretty impressive class...but Griffey was clearly the best of the bunch.

Griffey skyrocketed through the minors, beating the tarnation out of A-ball teams before a short stint at AA to end his year-18 season. He skipped AAA altogether, starting instead in center field for Seattle in the 1989 season as a 19-year old. Thus began what has to be considered among the most dominant first 12 years in baseball history, and, of course, a shoe-in Hall of Fame career. He was a 13-time all-star, 10-time gold glover, 7-time silver slugger, and the 1997 MVP (five times in the top-5).

Hitting

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	R/G	RAA	RAA/PA	RAR
1989	19	SEA	506	16%	9%	0.288	0.264	0.329	0.420	0.156	0.749	4.7	7.3	0.015	21.8
1990	20	SEA	666	12%	9%	0.315	0.300	0.366	0.481	0.181	0.847	6.0	27.6	0.042	46.1
1991	21	SEA	633	13%	11%	0.344	0.327	0.399	0.527	0.200	0.926	7.3	43.5	0.069	60.4
1992	22	SEA	617	11%	7%	0.310	0.308	0.361	0.535	0.227	0.896	6.6	37.0	0.060	53.7
1993	23	SEA	691	13%	14%	0.298	0.309	0.408	0.617	0.308	1.025	8.5	60.7	0.088	80.0
1994	24	SEA	493	15%	11%	0.311	0.323	0.402	0.674	0.351	1.076	9.2	48.1	0.098	63.1
1995	25	SEA	314	17%	17%	0.260	0.258	0.379	0.481	0.223	0.860	6.4	11.2	0.036	21.0
1996	26	SEA	638	16%	12%	0.290	0.303	0.392	0.628	0.325	1.020	8.6	52.3	0.082	72.4
1997	27	SEA	704	17%	11%	0.291	0.304	0.382	0.646	0.342	1.028	8.3	58.1	0.082	79.4
1998	28	SEA	720	17%	11%	0.270	0.284	0.365	0.611	0.327	0.976	7.7	50.1	0.070	72.6
1999	29	SEA	706	15%	13%	0.277	0.285	0.384	0.576	0.291	0.960	7.6	42.0	0.059	64.7
2000	30	CIN	631	19%	15%	0.272	0.271	0.387	0.556	0.285	0.943	7.3	31.6	0.050	52.1
2001	31	CIN	417	17%	11%	0.298	0.286	0.365	0.533	0.247	0.898	6.6	18.8	0.045	31.8
2002	32	CIN	232	17%	12%	0.286	0.264	0.358	0.426	0.162	0.784	5.0	2.0	0.009	9.1
2003	33	CIN	201	22%	13%	0.252	0.247	0.370	0.566	0.319	0.936	7.0	11.2	0.056	17.4
2004	34	CIN	348	19%	13%	0.260	0.253	0.351	0.513	0.260	0.864	6.1	10.7	0.031	21.9
2005	35	CIN	555	17%	10%	0.305	0.301	0.369	0.576	0.275	0.945	7.3	36.2	0.065	52.7
2006	36	CIN	472	17%	8%	0.248	0.252	0.316	0.486	0.234	0.802	5.0	1.3	0.003	17.5
2007	37	CIN	623	16%	14%	0.284	0.277	0.372	0.496	0.219	0.868	6.2	20.9	0.034	40.2
2008	38	TOT	439	15%	14%	0.263	0.247	0.355	0.427	0.180	0.782	5.2	4.2	0.010	18.1
Career			10606	16%	12%	0.290	0.288	0.373	0.548	0.260	0.921	7.0	575.0	0.054	896

The Griffey that we'll remember was a guy who had decent strikeout rates, decent to good walk rates, and amazing power. He had five seasons with a 0.300+ isolated power. His best offensive season may well have been his MVP year, when he hit 0.304/56/147 (triple crown stats) and produced 79 runs above replacement to lead the AL West champion '97 Mariners to the postseason. At least as good, however, was his 1993 performance (80 RAR), and he was on pace for his greatest season ever in 1994 before it was cut short by the strike (9.2 R/G, 0.10 RAA/PA, 63 RAR & 40 HR in 111 games). His peak lasted roughly 7 seasons, though the strike and a wrist injury limited his playing time in '94 and '95.

During Griffey's career, the average MLB team has gone from scoring 4.14 runs per game in 1989 to 5.14 runs per game in 2000, and back down to the current level around 4.8 runs per game. He has always clocked in as an above-average hitter. He's played his entire career in hitters' parks (the Kingdome, Cinergy Field, and Great American Ballparks), but even after adjusting for his home parks his offense has accounted for 896 runs above replacement and counting.

Fielding & Total Value

Year	PA	RAA	RAR	ZR-Runs	PosAdj	TtlVal-RAA	TtlVal-RAR
1989	506	9	24	-3	3	9	24
1990	666	30	48	3	4	36	55
1991	633	45	61	-5	4	43	60
1992	617	37	54	-6	3	34	51
1993	691	61	80	-2	3	62	81
1994	493	48	63	-5	2	46	60
1995	314	11	21	-9	2	4	14
1996	638	52	72	-5	3	51	71
1997	704	58	79	-6	4	56	77
1998	720	50	73	-3	4	51	73
1999	706	44	67	-8	4	40	63
2000	631	32	52	14	3	49	70
2001	417	19	32	0	2	21	34
2002	232	2	9	-1	1	2	9
2003	201	11	17	-1	1	11	17
2004	348	11	22	-13	2	0	11
2005	555	36	52	-21	3	18	34
2006	472	2	18	-11	2	-7	9
2007	623	22	41	-3	-5	14	33
2008	433	5	19	2	-3	4	17
Career	10600	584	905	-83	42	543	864

I'm a little hamstrung here, because for this table I'm only using zone rating from ESPN. I strongly prefer to use at least two fielding metrics whenever possible, but prior to 2003 or thereabouts I just don't have the data to do this. In recent years, ZR has been much more favorable toward Griffey's performances in the field than other metrics (e.g. RZR, UZR, PMR).

But surprisingly, even given that, Griffey doesn't come off as an overwhelmingly good fielder. In fact, compared to other center fielders, Griffey typically came out a tad below average over most of his career. The one real exception was in his first year with the Reds, 2000, when he was rated 14 runs above average. I have to wonder if there are some park effects that aren't accounted for at the Kingdome. As bad as the gold glove voters can be, I have a hard time believing that Griffey would win 10 straight gold gloves at a premier defensive position if he was a below-average fielder. While the only other fielding resource I have on hand from that era, Clay Davenport's fielding translations, show Griffey in a somewhat more positive light, he still does not come across as an exceptional defender by the numbers.

Even if we accept these data, though, it wasn't until the 2004 season--following three seasons shortened by leg injuries--that he became a genuine liability in the field. In 2005, his first year back from an experimental hamstring surgery, his defense cut his value by 35%--and those are some of the more generous numbers you'll find. The move to right field in 2007 certainly helped, but other metrics indicate that he's still a dreadful fielder in right.

Even though the fielding numbers don't help his cause, Griffey's overall numbers are still hard to match: 846 runs above replacement on his career (~85 wins), and counting. It's been a very impressive career. And the best part is, even though he's fading, he's not done yet. Add my voice to the chorus of Reds fans who hope that he not only makes it to the post-season, but gets the chance to play for his first ring.

Update: At Sky's suggestion, I checked out Sean Smith's TotalZone ratings for Griffey. Here they are (runs vs. average; year).

-12	1989
-4	1990
-2	1991
-7	1992
-12	1993
-9	1994
2	1995
5	1996
6	1997
6	1998
8	2000
-10	2001
-11	2002
-5	2003
-9	2004
-23	2005
-17	2006
0	2007

Again, the data don't support the idea that Griffey was a spectacular outfielder at any point in his career. Nevertheless, especially when you keep in mind that he was playing center field during this time, Griffey was clearly a defensive asset throughout most of his offensive peak (~'93-'99). It wasn't until 2004 or 2005 that he became a real liability out there. Again, 2005 was the season following his experimental hamstring surgery, which is when I think most of us noticed his drastically reduced speed.

These ratings would also indicate that his best season was clearly his MVP year, when he was 79 runs above replacement via offense, 6 runs above average as a center fielder, and receives a +4 run bonus for playing a premium position. That's 89 runs above a replacement player, which is a spectacular season.

Better Know a Red #24 - Homer Bailey

With Homer Bailey's Major League debut happening last Friday, and his second start just around the corner, it's high time he gets his own BKR profile!

David DeWitt Bailey, aka "Homer," was the Reds' 1st-round selection in the 2004 amateur players draft. The 7th overall pick that year, Bailey was a tall, wiry right-handed fireballer from LaGrange high school, Texas, which immediately brought inevitable comparisons to Nolan Ryan. Bailey already had two outstanding pitches--a fastball that could reach the mid to upper 90's, and a big 12-6 curveball. The question with was whether he could learn to command those pitches. Other players drafted in his class include Justin Verlander at #2, Jeremy Sowers at #6, Jered Weaver at #12, Bill Bray at #13, Stephen Drew at #15, and Houston Street at #40.

After signing, Bailey threw just 12 innings in the Gulf Coast League his first year as a professional. In 2005, the Reds pushed the then-19 year old to low-A Dayton. Bailey held his own, sporting a 4.43 ERA and outstanding strikeout rates (10.8 k/9), but also showing trouble with his control (5.4 bb/9). In 2006, however, Bailey broke out in a huge way. As a 20-year old, he performed very well in the Florida State league, showing huge improvements in his walk rate while maintaining a steady, high strikeout rate. Sensing that he needed a greater challenge, the Reds moved him mid-season to AA-Chattanooga, where his ERA actually dropped to an unreal 1.59 ERA. His walk rate did spike a bit to 3.7 bb/9, but his k-rate remained constant.

In 2007, despite rumors that he might make the starting rotation out of spring training, Bailey began the season in AAA-Louisville. Charged with improving his ability to use his offspeed pitches, Bailey's strikeout plummeted and walk rates soared during his early starts, but by the end of May, he'd managed to push them back up to a respectable 8.1 k/9 and 3.8 bb/9. Despite those struggles, and perhaps aided by a very low 0.240 BABIP, Homer posted a superb 2.31 ERA.

Minor League Stats:

Team	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	R/9	ERA	FIP	BABIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/CIN-Rk	18	12.1	6.7	2.2	0.0	5.21	4.38	2.46	0.000	0.00	0.0	0%
2005/CIN-A-	19	103.2	10.9	5.4	0.4	5.58	4.43	3.21	0.332	4.91	-7.2	49%
2006/CIN-A+	20	70.2	10.1	2.8	0.8	4.49	3.31	3.00	0.247	5.26	2.3	45%
2006/CIN-AA	20	68.0	10.2	3.7	0.1	1.72	1.59	2.36	0.298	3.28	23.1	52%
2007/CIN-AAA	21	56.7	8.1	3.8	0.5	2.86	2.31	3.36	0.240	---	---	52%

He has advanced very quickly through the minors, especially considering that he was a high school pick, and his peripherals have remained impressive each stop along the way. Bailey has always posted excellent strikeout rates, and furthermore has consistently shown the ability to prevent the long ball thanks to good ground ball rates. His control, evident in his walk rates, seems to be his biggest challenge, but he has made great strides in the past season and a half--which is why he is now in the major leagues.

As we saw in his first start, Bailey will have lapses in his control from time to time, but his great stuff (and the resulting high strikeout rate) should help him survive his occasional wildness. If he can harness that control as he continues to mature, the scouts think that Bailey can become one of the great pitchers of our time.

His Major League debut with the Reds was one of the most exciting things I've heard on a Reds' radio broadcast since the world series. Fans gave him a standing ovation when he arrived, and chants of "Homer! Homer! Homer!" were audible during a dramatic bases-loaded showdown with David Delucci in the top of the 5th. It's going to be a lot of fun watching him blossom over the coming years.

Photo by the Cincinnati Post