American League Update - Through 5/16/09

Tonight, I'm going to take a look at the junior circuit.

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TOR	25	14	0.641	0	219	5.6	167	4.3	24	104	87	0.528
BOS	22	15	0.595	2	198	5.4	180	4.9	20	96	85	0.544
NYA	19	17	0.528	4.5	195	5.4	210	5.8	17	86	82	0.563
TB	18	20	0.474	6.5	203	5.3	189	5.0	20	77	80	0.581
BAL	16	21	0.432	8	186	5.0	216	5.8	16	70	79	0.592

As much as hate to admit it, this is probably the most interesting division in baseball right now. The Red Sox and Yankees should have very good teams, and the Rays--despite their record--have played every bit as tough as the rich teams. But the Blue Jays have been the class of the division thus far, sporting both the best offensive and the best defensive (pitching + fielding) performances. You have to expect some of Toronto's hitter's to fall back to earth--none of Barajas (0.820), Hill (0.927), and Scutaro (0.869) have OPS'd over 0.800 before this season. And they've gotten unreal pitching performances from Romero and Cecil. It will be interesting to see how long they can hold off their division rivals.

Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
DET	19	16	0.543	0	190	5.4	163	4.7	20	88	83	0.559
KC	19	18	0.514	1	166	4.5	151	4.1	20	83	82	0.568
MIN	18	19	0.486	2	181	4.9	197	5.3	17	79	81	0.576
CHA	15	20	0.429	4	135	3.8	162	4.6	15	69	79	0.591
CLE	14	24	0.368	6.5	198	5.2	218	5.7	17	60	76	0.613

Another rather evenly matched division, though perhaps without the quality of the east. The Tigers have had the best offense, but the Royals have had the best defense--thanks in no small part to the spectacular first month and a half for Zach Greinke. Nice also to see Brian Bannister having a nice bit of success in the early goings. The Tigers have their own surprise--Brandon Inge is OPSing 0.954--but they have a lot of guys who aren't really hitting yet (Granderson, Guillen, Ordonez) and thus might actually improve even as Inge cools.

West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythW	XtrapW	Wif500	%for90W
TEX	22	14	0.611	0	200	5.6	174	4.8	20	99	85	0.540
LAA	18	17	0.514	3.5	177	5.1	179	5.1	17	83	82	0.567
SEA	17	20	0.459	5.5	152	4.1	179	4.8	16	74	80	0.584
OAK	13	20	0.394	7.5	145	4.4	162	4.9	15	64	78	0.597

The Angels have had as much bad luck and tragedy as any team I can remember, but still are right at 0.500 thanks their great depth. The Rangers, though, have taken advantage of the weak division, riding hot starts by Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, and Kevin Millwood to a nice little division lead. Not as impressive is the offense of Ken Griffey Jr.'s Seattle Mariners. Thank goodness they at least have Russell Branyon.

Team performance breakdown

Below is a kind of power ranking of teams based on their component statistics. I estimate team runs scored using linear weights (actually, FanGraphs does, though I park-adjust it), pitching performance based on FIP (I do park-adjust the HR's), and fielding based on UZR. I use those numbers to estimate team runs scored and runs allowed, and then use PythagenPat to estimate expected winning percentage. It's not perfect, but this should give us another look at team performance that gets beyond actual wins, losses, and runs scored or allowed.

			Offense				Pitching						Fielding			Overall
Rank	Prev	Team	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	wRC*	ERA	FIP*	K/9	BB/9	HR*/9	FIPRuns*	bUZR	THT+/-	DER	ExptW%
1	-	Blue Jays	0.359	0.460	0.356	225	3.97	4.23	6.8	3.1	0.9	181	6.2	24.8	0.720	0.619
2	-	Rays	0.346	0.452	0.357	214	4.83	4.83	6.5	3.8	1.2	191	16.3	0	0.689	0.595
3	-	Royals	0.335	0.421	0.334	174	3.63	3.76	7.5	3.4	0.7	149	-3.8	-4.8	0.685	0.560
4	-	Rangers	0.335	0.496	0.357	201	4.66	5.02	5.3	3.4	1.2	192	15.2	19.2	0.712	0.560
5	-	Tigers	0.340	0.426	0.337	170	4.31	4.29	7.3	3.6	1.0	160	4.7	8.8	0.704	0.544
6	-	Red Sox	0.364	0.451	0.351	204	4.82	4.67	7.4	4.0	1.1	185	-12	-7.2	0.677	0.517
7	-	Yankees	0.350	0.467	0.358	211	5.41	5.28	7.2	4.2	1.4	203	-4.1	4	0.691	0.509
8	-	Indians	0.355	0.420	0.345	204	5.62	5.03	6.6	4.0	1.3	199	-2.8	-12.8	0.673	0.505
9	-	Angels	0.344	0.414	0.339	174	4.70	4.61	6.0	3.4	1.0	171	-4.1	-10.4	0.690	0.497
10	-	Twins	0.347	0.417	0.338	183	5.20	4.91	6.2	3.0	1.4	192	-0.1	-0.8	0.696	0.476
11	-	Orioles	0.342	0.437	0.340	182	5.51	5.11	6.6	3.3	1.5	196	-9	-20	0.666	0.444
12	-	Mariners	0.305	0.378	0.305	138	4.25	4.46	6.8	3.7	1.0	178	10.6	-4.8	0.689	0.411
13	-	White Sox	0.317	0.385	0.306	132	4.71	4.05	7.0	3.8	0.7	150	-14.4	-19.2	0.667	0.398
14	-	Athletics	0.309	0.338	0.294	116	4.12	4.57	6.2	3.6	1.0	167	-0.2	-11.2	0.689	0.333

The only major disparity I see is with the Indians, who have apparently hit and pitched well enough to expect a 0.500 record, and yet are somehow 10 games below 0.500. Their true pythagorean record is 17 wins, but indications here are that they've given up quite a few more runs than expected. Are they just unlucky, or are the methods missing in this case? Part of the answer might be with the fielding estimates: bUZR rates them as only slightly below average, but THT's batted-ball based plus/minus stat (as well as straight-up DER) pegs them at second-worst in the league. Perhaps bUZR is overrating their defense?

What's up with the Athletics offense? They add Giambi, Holliday, and Nomah, and yet have a wOBA under 0.300? Beane must be blowing a gasket.

• Top hitting teams (wOBA*): Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Blue Jays, Red Sox (holy AL East!)
  
• Top pitching teams (FIP*):Royals, White Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners
  
• Top fielding teams (bUZR): Rays, Rangers, Mariners (maybe), Blue Jays, Tigers
• "Expected" leaders: Blue Jays, Royals, Rangers
• "Expected" Wild card: Rays

Blue Jays rank in top five in hitting, pitching, and fielding. What will they have to do to keep their lead the rest of the way?

National League Update - Through 5/12/09

I thought I'd try something new tonight and do a league recap. The plan is to do a Reds-centric recap in alternation with this recap on some kind of regular schedule. We'll see. :)

Division Roundups

Quick notes on the stats below: All runs data are park adjusted using Patriot's park factors. PythWins is from Hardball Times, and so is PythagenPat. XtrapWins is the wins that the teams' current winning percentage would provide at the season's end. Wif500 is what the team's record should be if they win half of their remaining games. %for90W is the winning percentage the teams will need to get to 90 wins at the end of the season.

NL East

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythWins	XtrapWins	Wif500	%for90W
NYN	18	14	0.563	0	158	4.9	138	4.3	18	91	83	0.554
PHI	16	14	0.533	1	166	5.5	156	5.2	16	86	82	0.561
FLA	17	16	0.515	1.5	153	4.6	162	4.9	16	83	82	0.566
ATL	16	17	0.485	2.5	144	4.4	143	4.3	17	79	81	0.574
WAS	10	21	0.323	7.5	162	5.2	197	6.4	13	52	76	0.611

Pretty tight division thus far, especially when you note that the Mets just swept the Braves to push Atlanta as far down as they now are. The Mets and the Braves have had the best defense, but the Phillies and Adam Dunn's Nationals have had the best offense. The Nationals' general lack of pitching and defense will keep them out of the race, but at this point all other teams are in it. Should be fun to watch.

P.S. Condolences to Zimmerman on having his hit streak stopped at 30.

NL Central

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythWins	XtrapWins	Wif500	%for90W
STL	20	13	0.606	0	177	5.3	155	4.7	19	98	85	0.543
MIL	19	14	0.576	1	164	5.0	142	4.3	19	93	84	0.550
CIN	19	14	0.576	1	145	4.4	141	4.3	17	93	84	0.550
CHN	18	14	0.563	1.5	149	4.7	144	4.5	16	91	83	0.554
HOU	14	18	0.438	5.5	135	4.2	161	5.0	13	71	79	0.585
PIT	13	19	0.406	6.5	140	4.4	143	4.5	16	66	78	0.592

Thus far it's been a four-team race. The Cardinals have had the best offense--I hear they have a good first baseman. But their defense hasn't been on par with top run-prevention teams Milwaukee and Cincinnati (hehe--I just love saying that). Milwaukee has looked surprisingly strong defensively (pitching + fielding), at least to my eye. Pythagoras thinks that the Pirates' record is far below where it should be, with a combination of a decent offense (same R/G as the Reds') and decent enough pitching. I'm skeptical, simply because it's the Pirates. :)

Heading into tonight's action, the Reds and Brewers were tied for the lead in the NL wild card race. No, it's never too early to point that out.

NL West

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA	RA/G*	PythWins	XtrapWins	Wif500	%for90W
LAN	22	12	0.647	0	191	5.6	135	4.0	22	105	86	0.531
SF	18	14	0.563	3	128	4.0	134	4.2	15	91	83	0.554
COL	13	18	0.419	7.5	145	4.7	132	4.3	17	68	79	0.588
SD	13	20	0.394	8.5	135	4.1	180	5.5	12	64	78	0.597
ARI	13	21	0.382	9	120	3.5	150	4.4	14	62	77	0.602

The Giants are trying to hang in there, and the Rockies are probably a lot better than they've shown. But so far, the Dodgers have been running away with it. Their offense has been amazing, and as I write this they're up 7-1 on the Phillies, but it remains to be seen how much of an impact losing Manny will have. The thing is, they've also had the best defense in the division thus far, are their fielding should just improve with Manny out. They look tough.

Team performance breakdown

What I'm doing below is using some objective methods to estimate what team performance "should be." I estimate team runs scored using linear weights (actually, FanGraphs does, though I park-adjust it), pitching performance based on FIP (I do park-adjust the HR's; I'd rather use tRA*, but I can't pull it automatically from statcorner using excel and it takes too long to type it in), and fielding based on UZR. I use those numbers to estimate team runs scored and runs allowed, and then use PythagenPat to estimate expected winning percentage. It's not perfect, but this should give us another look at team performance that gets beyond actual wins, losses, and runs scored or allowed. You can think of the list below as a sort of power ranking in the National League.

	Offense				Pitching						Fielding			Overall
Team	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC*	ERA	FIP*	K/9	BB/9	HR*/9	FIPRuns*	bUZR	THT+/-	DER	ExptW%
Dodgers	0.372	0.423	0.352	191	3.81	3.90	7.5	3.8	0.7	142	-12.6	8.8	0.718	0.597
Brewers	0.350	0.443	0.346	171	4.12	4.54	7.3	3.8	1.1	159	11.6	13.6	0.719	0.570
Mets	0.368	0.429	0.350	171	3.89	4.25	7.0	4.0	0.8	145	-5.8	4	0.7	0.559
Braves	0.346	0.402	0.331	155	3.98	3.78	7.8	3.6	0.7	134	-3.5	-0.8	0.687	0.557
Cardinals	0.347	0.442	0.346	174	4.16	4.40	6.6	3.4	1.0	155	-3.4	-5.6	0.686	0.545
Reds	0.333	0.410	0.329	148	3.98	4.28	6.9	3.8	0.8	153	10.2	4.8	0.702	0.516
Nationals	0.361	0.448	0.356	184	5.54	5.15	5.9	4.5	1.1	172	-12.6	-14.4	0.668	0.499
Rockies	0.338	0.447	0.344	144	4.47	4.43	6.5	3.4	1.0	144	-2	10.4	0.694	0.493
Phillies	0.341	0.450	0.348	156	5.31	5.47	6.8	3.8	1.6	173	7.6	13.6	0.709	0.471
Cubs	0.335	0.416	0.331	144	4.52	4.42	8.5	4.3	1.1	151	-3.8	-2.4	0.704	0.467
Padres	0.314	0.389	0.312	142	4.77	4.57	7.2	4.2	1.0	159	-0.3	-4	0.686	0.448
Pirates	0.327	0.392	0.319	138	4.20	4.89	5.6	4.1	1.0	162	5.4	10.4	0.714	0.439
Astros	0.324	0.395	0.315	135	4.57	4.61	6.8	3.9	1.0	162	5.4	-4	0.677	0.432
Marlins	0.319	0.377	0.309	135	4.35	4.20	7.6	3.8	0.9	151	-9	-2.4	0.684	0.420
Diamondbacks	0.309	0.392	0.310	126	4.44	4.30	7.1	3.2	1.1	157	4.5	4	0.695	0.408
Giants	0.315	0.364	0.302	116	4.07	4.43	8.1	4.0	1.1	153	4.1	-4.8	0.694	0.384

The Reds come out looking pretty good here, ranking as the 6th-best team in the National League thanks to their pitching and fielding. The teams that rank above them are not a surprise, though the Brewers' ranking at #2 is pretty impressive.

But there are surprises among teams below the Reds. The Nationals show up as an expected-0.500 team here thanks to an offense that is expected to score 20 more runs than it actually has produced thus far (second only to the Dodgers). The Marlins and especially the Giants look to have massively overperformed thus far. The Marlins' offensive numbers are very weak (0.309 wOBA), and their expected runs scored is almost 20 runs below their actual total.

The Giants, on the other hand, look lucky in both their offensive production AND defensive run prevention. I'd estimate that their record should be closer to 12-20 than it's actual mark at 18-14. I expect them to fall out of the race quickly, which might end up leaving the Dodgers to seal off that division by mid-June or so. Unless the Rockies can catch them...

• Top hitting teams (wOBA): Nationals, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Brewers
• Top pitching teams (FIP*): Braves, Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Reds
• Top fielding teams: Brewers, Reds, Phillies, Pirates, Astros (maybe--Dodgers have a legit argument, despite their UZR)
• "Expected" playoff teams: Mets, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions, Braves win wild card