Too Long of a Post: This Site, Fangraphs, Encarnacion, Bailey, Guardado, and Freel.

A number of things I wanted to talk about today.

Site News

I've added two search bars to the top of this page. The first is a standard google search bar that is set up to allow you to search this site. I've added it because the "new and improved" version of blogger's search bar (way up top) has proven almost completely ineffective in finding the posts I want to find since I "upgraded" to the new blogger. I'm hopeful that they will address this problem soon so that I can remove that search bar. We'll see.

The second search bar is here to stay. It's a quick search bar that allows you to look up any major league player on fangraphs.com. It's an outstanding site that allows you to quickly access a tremendous variety of stats in a graphical format. It is interesting that many baseball stathead-types, myself included, rarely take advantage of graphs to display their data, despite the unique insights that can come visualizing your data in graphical form. I'm going to try to use visuals more often on this blog in the future, provided I can defeat some of these new problems with blogger.

I've added posting categories to this site, and updated my last 50 or so posts to include appropriate categories. The rest will have to wait for hopeful updates at a later time though, as I just couldn't take any more after that. You can always use the search feature to find my earlier postings on any topic you wish. I'm also still planning to add my "top articles" menu to the right...just haven't gotten it done yet.

Finally, I've been debating internally whether to continue onward with the Better Know a Red profiles this late in the season. At this point I've done a profile on every player who began the season with the Reds (I think). Furthermore, I've done a mini-profile with each transaction that has brought a new face to the team.

What I may do is add the mini-profiles from my transaction analyses to the BKR sidebar menu to allow easy access. After the season's over and the new PECOTA projections are released on baseball prospectus, I plan to march through these profiles once again. I enjoy doing them, but I'm hesitant to do much more on them now only to repeat that work in November or December. Besides, I think it will be fun to go back and compare my initial predictions for player performance with their actual performance. For the record, I blew the prediction on Brandon Phillips big time. :)

Fangraphs.com

Speaking of fangraphs, they have made a huge number of improvements to their site lately. These improvements include:
* Win Probability graphs for all games going back to 2002.
* Improved browse menus to find WPA games, which have the consequence of "graphically" showing you a teams' record in each month during the 2002-2006 seasons. It can be a happy thing. Here's the Reds' wonderful April 2006 (wins are green, losses are red):
* A bunch of new WPA-related statistics. I'm hopeful that they will manage to get the WPA stats hooked up to the rest of their player stats in future updates, but for now we have access to all sorts of WPA, leverage, and even everyone's favorite new offensive stat, clutchiness.

As a side note, I'm still very skeptical as far as how valuable these WPA-related statistics are in terms of predicting future performance, which is my primary interest with baseball stats. But they absolutely do a great job of describing past performance in a way that traditional stats fall short. They don't replace traditional stats, but rather complement our older measures with stats that are highly dependent on the game situations in which they occur.

Eddie Encarnacion and Jerry Narron

Speaking of WPA, Edwin Encarnacion currently has a huge lead over any other Reds' player in terms of his total net contribution to winning ballgames according the fangraphs' WPA stats. His mark of 2.78 WPA leads all Reds by over a full net win (0.5 WPA=one win over 0.500 due to a player's activities). The next closest are Adam Dunn (2.27 WPA) and Bronson Arroyo (2.16). Lonnie Wheeler's somewhat rhetorical question "Is Encarnacion Reds MVP?" isn't that out of line. Eddie's been brilliant when he's been able and permitted to play, especially given that this is his first full year.

Speaking of that Wheeler article, I can't let this line go without comment:

When given the chance, he also hit relentlessly off the pitchers of the National League, which Narron couldn't help but notice. "If he hadn't been on the DL," the skipper said, "you could compare his numbers to David Wright and (Miguel) Cabrera and (Scott) Rolen and all those guys, and they would be pretty favorable.

::sighs:: I wouldn't have had to make posts like this one if the ankle injury had been all that had limited Encarnacion's playing time this season. But at least he's starting every now. And Narron has also apparently finally seen past Clayton's inadequacies at the plate (not to mention his lack of defensive prowess) and is letting Aurilia play at short. I'd still prefer that he swap Phillips over to short and let Aurilia play second, but I can cope with that as long as the best lineup is playing most nights. Heck, I don't even care that much about the batting order, so long as the right guys are in there somewhere.

Homer Bailey

Since Elizardo Ramirez's demotion and now injury (eek!), there's been a lot of talk both here, around the blogosphere, and most recently in the papers about potentially bringing Homer Bailey up this season. Previous reports that I'd seen indicate that Bailey would be allowed to pitch up to around 150 innings this season, but recent quotes from Krivsky indicate that 130 innings was the target at the beginning of the season. Bailey is currently at 132.7 innings, which means that the Reds should be seriously considering shutting Bailey down. Instead, they're allowing him to continue to pitch, albeit with lower pitch counts, and apparently will allow him to participate in the AA post-season. ... though Krivsky surprisingly allowed for the possibility, for the first time, that Bailey could pitch for the Reds in the coming month.

While it's great to give a kid like Bailey the opportunity to be involved in the minor-league playoffs, I do think that if the plan was for him to top out at 130 innings this season, we should just shut him down. He's just too valuable to risk for something like a minor league playoff opportunity. This is a guy who has a legitimate chance to start the season as the #5 man in the Reds' rotation next year, and potentially be our ace a year or two later--for a long time. He may very well be the best totally homegrown Reds pitching prospect since Don Gullett, and has a good chance to have an even better career if he can avoid Gullett's injuries. Yes, he's that good. Which is precisely why we need to watch his workload early in his career.

If Bailey continues to pitch over the next few weeks, though, I'm still of the opinion that he should be pitching for the Reds major league club. Michalak has had two blissfully lucky outings in three tries out. He currently has twice as many walks as strikeouts, a BABIP of 0.237, and an FIP of 6.32 to go with his 4.76 ERA. He's a time bomb waiting to go off. We need a better option in the #5 rotation slot, and Homer's really the only option can predictably win some games for us. These names, which are apparently among those that Krivsky may be trying to acquire via trade, aren't likely to be an improvement over Joe Mays, Ryan Franklin, or Michalak, and I'm already getting worried about the number of players to be named later we've been promising (thanks to Red Reporter for the latter link).

Eddie Guardado

Will Carroll said this today about our closer's recovery:

Eddie Guardado will begin throwing again, his first time since hitting the DL. His availability is going to be based on pain tolerance--Guardado's never going to be 100% this season, but he's the type of guy who'll push himself beyond the normal breaking point for a chance at the postseason.

Eddie showed he can be effective despite hurting with his excellent July performance, so there's still a chance he could still come back and be effective. But there's always that question of how much better he could be with a week or two more rest. Of course, by then it could be too late for the Reds. It's all far too unpredictable for my liking, so I'm just going to cross my fingers and hope for the best.

Ryan Freel

Finally, to close, I wanted to send kudos to Chris over at Redleg Nation for his excellent workup on Ryan Freel and the relationship between his performance and his rest. It's the best empirical evidence I've seen to test the "common knowledge" that Freel needs some time off each week to remain as effective as he can be. Small sample size issues are always a factor with that sort of analysis, but the magnitude of the difference in performance between the rested and unrested Freels is definitely enough to make me want to see Freel get scheduled rest. ... If only Denorfia were still on the team to "spell" him in right field. At least we'll see Deno back here in September...right?

Ruhle back; Griffey's parents ill; Stewart on his way out

A few pieces of Reds news I wanted to acknowledge:

Vern Ruhle returns to Reds

I'm delighted to see that Ruhle finally made it back to the Reds, hopefully for the rest of the season. It will be interesting to see how the Reds deal with the fact that they have both Tom Hume (who has to be given at least some of the credit for the improvements of many Reds' pitchers this season) and Ruhle on staff, but for now it's just good to see the guy back in uniform.

Griffey's parents fighting cancer

Just a few days before Ruhle's return, however, we received the terrible news that Ken Griffey Jr.'s parents both may have cancer. His mother is currently undergoing treatment for colon cancer, while Griffey Sr. is still in the diagnosis stage with prostate cancer. Best wishes to the Griffey family, who are nothing if not good people.

Steve Stewart told he will be let go

This was a big surprise to me, and I generally agree with most of what has been written on the various blogs and newspaper editorials. Stewart isn't a terrific sportscaster, but he's been surprisingly enjoyable to listen to this season. As Marty Brennaman stated, Stewart has improved dramatically since his first year with the team, and is among the best-prepared sportscasters I've heard. Sure, he's not artful or all that lively, but at this point in his career, I'd rate him as (probably) a more capable broadcaster than Nuxhall was over any part of my adult lifetime (I love Nuxhall, but it's more for his wonderful personality than his aptitude as a sportscaster). As is his style, Steve Stewart is reacting with unbelievable class and humility to this news. Hopefully, he will catch on somewhere quickly and continue his dream of being a major league radio broadcaster.

I'll be interested to see who they pick this time around though. The Lindner regime that chose Stewart was known for their caution and general blandness when marketing the Reds. I suppose that made Stewart a suitable choice for them.. The Castellini group, on the other hand, has shown a lot of spunk thus far in their PR. I have to think their choice for Stewart's replacement may reflect this style. Spring training should be an interesting time in the Reds' booth this season.

Update in Majewskigate

(Kudos to Chris at Redleg Nation for the title)

Interesting tidbit in Will Carroll's BP Under the Knife today about the Krivsky/Bowden feud:

On another Reds injury note, I'm told that Wayne Krivsky has asked the Nationals to send him a minor-leaguer to "even out" the Gary Majewski deal instead of filing a grievance.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere else, but Will Carroll has some excellent sources. It will be interesting to see whether anything comes of this. I'd be shocked if Bowden gives up anything more without a more tangible threat of sanctions.

Who's to blame for Majewski? Bowden, or Krivsky?

"It is the nature of being the general manager of a baseball team that you have to remain on familiar terms with people you are continually trying to screw." - Michael Lewis, Moneyball

With one his of the two prized relievers acquired in The Trade now on the disabled list with soreness in the shoulder that might be traceable all the way back to the World Baseball Classic, the Reds' front office is fuming. Here are the facts that I'm aware of:

1. Majewski claims to have started to feel the tendonitis during the World Baseball Classic. From Will Carroll's Under the Knife:

Call it the WBC curse. Gary Majewski heads to the DL with shoulder soreness and blames pitching in the World Baseball Classic for his troubles. It's interesting that Majewski never noted this in the previous four months and certainly didn't indicate this problem to his new team, the Reds. The team was aware when they traded for him that he'd been dealing with "mild shoulder tendonitis," but one cortisone injection back in May cleared up the problem. If this has been bothering him since the trade, it does explain his poor performance. There's no clear indication when Majewski could return. Luckily, the Reds' bullpen is one loaded with quantity, if not quality.

2. While the Reds were aware of the cortisone injection in May, there apparently was a cortisone injection only a few days prior to the trade due to a resurgence of these problems. And the Reds were not told about that by the Nationals' trainer, or by Jim Bowden. Or by Majewski.

3. Wayne Krivsky is trying to be subtle, but the guy's furious...I love how this quote moves from saying "the right thing" to just outright bitching. From Marc's blog:

"This doesn't preclude doing future business," said Krivsky. "I don't like eliminating talent pools. I don't like eliminating teams. Hopefully, people feel like when they're dealing with us they're dealing straight-up. I want people to feel like they're being dealt with honestly. For me, Wayne Krivsky talking, your credibility is paramount -- not only with (the media) but with other teams and the fans and ownership. You lose your credibility, youre done in this business. You better treat people right and treat them the way you want to be treated, or youre not going to be as effective a general manager, farm director, scouting director, scout. To me, thats a pretty big thing right there."

My thoughts:

1. This is just the latest demonstration that Jim Bowden is a despicable human being. This is not a surprise, and is completely consistent with his track record. Someday it might be fun to try to list the rest of his history.

2. Krivsky feels wronged, and probably has a right to. But frankly, I think the major thing that's going on here is that he's finally realizing how bad that trade was for the Reds. Yes, we absolutely needed relief pitching. But there were quality guys available that could have been had for a lot less than the price of Austin Kearns or Felipe Lopez. Mike MacDougal, Bob Wickman, Scott Williamson, and of course Rheal Cormier and Kyle Lohse (who the Reds did get) all were acquired for minor league talent in July. Yes, those minor league players may turn out to have an impact in the major leagues in the future, but they might not. Minor league players are more risky--and less valuable--than established, successful, and still young guys like Kearns and Lopez.

So now, one of the moderately valuable acquisitions from this trade turns out to be hurt, perhaps for a good chunk of the rest of the season. Yes, the Nationals should have been more forthright in this transaction. But injuries happen. It's just that when they happen after you know you've already been ripped off, they hurt so much more than when you know you've done everything right and have just been unlucky.

3. Frankly, if the Reds file a grievance, I hope it does result in sanctions against Bowden. Not because Krivsky deserves the vindication, but because Bowden's a jerk. 'Course, what can they do? The trade would never be reversed, as much as I'd love for that to be a possibility, which it's not. Maybe the Nationals could get fined? My guess is that the best thing we could hope for is that the new owners of the Nationals might realize the sort of person they have running their baseball team and give Bowden his walking papers. Maybe not this year, but eventually they're bound to realize how someone like that can poison the moral your entire organization. They need only look at his previous employers.

Narron: "Logic, I defy thee!"

From the DDN. Please note the bits I've emphasized in the text. My commentary follows.

Edwin Encarnacion isn't angry, just confused. Since coming off the disabled list July 6, he has played only eight games and hit safely in seven — 11-for-23 (.478), one homer, five RBIs.

He started Thursday against Milwaukee and had two hits and a walk before manager Jerry Narron pinch-hit for him in the seventh. He started Saturday and had two more hits.

But he didn't play Sunday and wasn't in Tuesday's lineup against Roger Clemens.

Asked if defense played into his decisions, Narron said: "Yes. And a lot of things factor into it."

Encarnacion is baffled, even though he realizes Rich Aurilia and Scott Hatteberg are hitting, too, making it difficult to squeeze three players into two positions. Narron said Encarnacion would start tonight and might start Thursday, too, then Friday in Milwaukee.

"He (Narron) hasn't talked to me, and all I can do is when I get the opportunity I have to do something with it," Encarnacion said. "I don't know what's going on, and it's hard for me, but I just try to do my job every day. I know when I play I'm OK because I do my work and then do my thing.

"But, yes, this is hard because I was playing before I got hurt, and I never expected it to be like this when I came back. But if we keep winning games, everything is going to be all right."

Asked if he might consider playing Aurilia at second base or shortstop so Encarnacion can play third and Hatteberg first, Narron said: "There is a chance of it. I came close Sunday — playing Aurilia at second. It isn't likely Richie would play short, not with Royce Clayton and Juan Castro playing short."

I could say all sorts of things in response to this article. I could mention that Encarnacion is only 23 years old and is the best looking offensive prospect we've had since Dunn and Kearns came up (and before that, maybe since Sean Casey?). I could mention that Aurilia had terrible defensive numbers at third base last year, while Encarnacion was above average. I could also mention that Royce Clayton has been a below-average shortstop over the past three years. Or, I could say that Castro's offensive VORP is generally so bad, even as a shortstop, that it largely negates any potential defensive bonus he provides. But really, all I want to say is this:

AHHHHHHHH!!!!

I was glad to see this. Even if it's only the media, someone's noticing. :)

In other news...

• Tremendous game by Harang tonight. I was hoping he'd be as good as he was last year for us, but, in fact, he's been better. He has to be among the best trading deadline prospect pickups of the past several years, for any team. And Billy Beane doesn't give up a lot of cheap, quality players, so the Reds did good.
• Maury Brown's BP Prospectus (subscription) article on blackouts was very revealing. I honestly had no idea that their blackout practices were so insane. One occasional commenter on this blog, Mike Grayson, was featured prominently:

While the territorial aspect has been a success for clubs for pulling in revenues, it has had unforeseen and highly negative impacts from a consumer standpoint. Case in point, Mike Grayson. Mike lives in Montana. He’s mostly a Reds fan, but also follows the Mariners. Problem is, the Mariners are blacked out where he lives. As Grayson says, “It seems very odd that a team that is literally over 500 miles away is blacked out. It's not like I would be able to go to a game easily if I can't watch on TV; it's a ten-hour drive at best. The blackout zones are ridiculous.”

• New blog to watch: Global Baseball by jhelfgott. He's doing a year-long trip investigating baseball around the world. Right now, he's looking into the Dominican summer leagues. Fellow Reds blogger Doug Gray has requested that he do some work on the Reds' Dominican League affiliate there, and it sounds like that should be possible. I'd love to hear updates on what is going on with Wirfin Obispo... Also, jhelfgott has this recent story on the efforts of the Seattle Mariners to get baseball academies started in Europe. It seems like the Mariners are always at the forefront of pursuing foreign talent. I'd like to see the Reds do more innovation on that front.
• The minorleagueball.com community has an ongoing feature in which they are collectively constructing a Top Prospects list. Homer Bailey came in at #9, while Jay Bruce came in at #16. No sign of Votto yet though.
  

Reds Blogger Roundtable, July '06

I was fortunate enough to receive an invitation to attend the Reds' Bloggers' Mid-Season Roundtable discussion on Monday night. There were eight participants, and each of us has been allocated one section of the chat log to post on our blogs. I got section VII.

The focal question for my section was "Where do you see the Reds in five years?" Topics discussed include several of our team's top prospects and young players, including Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, Austin Kearns, Brandon Phillips, and Adam Dunn. Other topics include whether Pete Rose will ever make the Hall of Fame, whether the Reds will ever move the fences back at Great American Ballpark, and why I call myself J-in-AZ.

Since this might be the first time some of you have visited my blog, I've taken the liberty of including links to some of my articles on various relevant topics within the chat log. Yes, I really am a traffic-hound. So sue me. :)

Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part I - The Cincinnati Reds Blog (Shawn)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part II - The Church of Baseball (Daedalus)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part III - Reds And Blues (Doc Scott)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part IV - Red Reporter (JD)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part V - ...And This One Belongs to the Reds (Ashlee)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VI - We Heart the Reds (Jacci)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VII - On Baseball and the Reds (JinAZ)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VIII - Red Hot Mama

Shawn: Question 6 coming up (I'm trying to get you guys out of here within an hour).....
JinAZ: ty
Jacci: Ooh! I didn't know there was a 6th question
Ashlee: Bonus Round
Doc Scott: this must be the one for the DVD release
Shawn: Where do you see this team in five years? How will the Reds look in 2011?
Doc Scott: a lot different
JinAZ: I see them in steady contention year after year, much like the Twins. In Krivsky I trust. Hopefully the outfield will include three of Dunn, Kearns, Bruce, and Stubbs. :)
Doc Scott: (congratulates self)
Shawn: #1 starter = Homer Bailey
JinAZ: I hope so
Doc Scott: Kearns will get traded
Jacci: No! Kearns can never be traded!
Shawn: Bruce in CF, with Kearns at his side.
Shawn: Phillips leading off
Doc Scott: Stubbs in CF and Bruce in RF
Ashlee: I would be a happy fan to see Kearns still wearing red in 2011.
Daedalus: votto will be fun
Doc Scott: although realistically, only one of them will have a sustained big-league career
Daedalus: i bet we won't have three catchers
Shawn: I can see a World Series win come 2011.
Shawn: But I bet Jerry Narron will not manage that team
JinAZ: It'd be nice to have a 1B who could hit for power. Hopefully Votto can be that guy.
Red Hot Mama: The Reds trade Adam Dunn in the offseason after another .500 year in 2007. Despite the outcry, it turns out to be a Lee May-type deal that propels the team into a decade of dominance!
Shawn: I can see that happening, RHM
JD: I think they'll be coming off of five straight world series championships
Daedalus: ha
JD: Joining the Bengals in making Cincinnati known as "the city of champions"
Daedalus: pete rose still won't be in the hall
Jacci: I can be quite happy with that.
Jacci: With the 5 straight championships, not Pete Rose remaining hall-less
JinAZ: Do you think the Reds will ever consider some alterations to GABP's fences?
Shawn: No chance of Rose in Cooperstown. Until he dies.
Shawn: I doubt the fences will move.
Doc Scott: agreed with Shawn.
Shawn: Not for some years, at least
Ashlee: I don't think that'll happen anytime soon - lose the revenue from the seats!? No way!
Jacci: No, I'm convinced they like all the home runs
Daedalus: omg, david wright is just killing the ball here. too bad he can't play for the reds
Shawn: Is there room to move home plate back, like they did at Dodger Stadium years ago?
JinAZ: Might change the mindset, at least, of our pitchers. But I agree, it's doubtful to ever happen.
Doc Scott: I don't think GABP is the problem
Daedalus: why would you want to move it back? the HRs are great
Doc Scott: considering that it's not a hitter's park, no matter what Hal F. McCoy says
Shawn: David Wright is a monster. He's got Hall of Fame written all over him.
Shawn: Someone should wipe that off.
JinAZ: Wright's defense aint so good though. :)
JinAZ: It does allow a high number of Hr's, though overall is mostly neutral.
Doc Scott: good pitchers can pitch in that park. It's not Coors Field.
Shawn: yeah, Krivsky just needs to collect some groundball pitchers. Then we'll be fine.
Red Hot Mama: Coors Field isn't Coors Field anymore. Maybe the Reds need a humidor.
Doc Scott: Shawn, I can probably get you Jeff Gilooly's phone number, considering he's from Portland
Shawn: Brandon Webb pitches just fine in Cincy.
Daedalus: if the reds got a humidor, the balls would get soggy
Red Hot Mama: No one wants soggy balls
Shawn: I was thinking a wet cloth, Scott
JinAZ: Ahh, Brandon Webb is my dream...
JinAZ: Seeing him here in AZ can be torture. :)
Shawn: Aha, that's what the AZ is for!
Ashlee: I was thinking the same thing
JinAZ: Of course! :)
Doc Scott: who needs a wet cloth when you can break an ankle? Or deliver a WWE headbutt? Is that French dude coming to MLS?

Thanks to the other bloggers for the great time, and the invitation to your secret little meeting! I'm looking forward to the next one.

And please remember check back at this space tomorrow (hopefully) for my 2006 First Half Season Review.

Reds Prospects Making Headlines

Here we are at the season midpoint. I'm working on a look back on the first half, but I wanted to take a bit to talk about the Reds minor leagues because things are finally looking up in the Reds farm system. First, do you know who the Reds' top prospects are? Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto get all the press these days, but who else do we have? A good start is to read Doug Gray's top-10 prospect list, which includes both stats and insightful analysis for each player. Well worth the read, as is just about everything he posts on his site. Here's an excerpt:

5. Johnny Cueto - RHP - 20 years old
Johnny Cueto was a relative unknown prospect coming into this season. In Baseball Americas top 30 preseason rankings, he was nowhere to be seen. The Dominican product burst onto the season by dominating the Midwest League the first few months of the season. Cueto fired a no-hitter earlier in the season and has since gotten a promotion to Advanced A Sarasota. His first three outings have been from horrible to bad, but each start has gotten better and I am not to worried about Johnny adjusting and adapting to his new competition.

There was a similar thread over at minorleagueball.com recently asking for top-10 team prospect lists. Here are a few alternatives that posters there provided (see the link to read comments/justifications:

Havok1517's top-10:
1. Bailey
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Wood
5. Stubbs
6. Ward
7. Szymanski
8. Shafer
9. Guevara
10. Perez

IndyRedsFan's top-10:
1. Bailey, A
2. Bruce, A-
3. Votto, B+
4. Wood, B
5. Cueto, B
6. Dumatrait, B-
7. Denorfia, B-
8. Ward, C+
9. LeClure, C+
10. Stubbs, C+

I think the point here is that people can generally agree on the top 4 or 5 prospects in our system, but once you get into the 7-8-9 range you start to see new names. For the record, I think IndyRedsFan's list looks pretty on the mark.

And now, I wanted to run down a smattering of prospect news from the past week or so among the general baseball sites I frequent. Some (though not all) of it has been posted elsewhere, but I like to have it here too -- if for no other reason than so I can search for it later. :)

Baseball Analysts' top-75 prospects included three Reds, and I'll be you can name them:

10. Homer Bailey, sp: Reds (AA)
Bailey was not an oversight in my listing of the top pitching prospects weeks ago, I told someone after that article that Bailey wouldn't rank high for me until he showed "consistent dominance." So, upon promotion, Bailey decided to go off, and currently has a 17 inning scoreless streak going at Double-A. He has earned his status as the game's 1A pitching prospect, especially after a dominating performance in Sunday's Futures Game.

11. Jay Bruce, of: Reds (A-)
Earlier in the season, I did a study on teenage hitters in the Midwest League. Needless to say, the list of success stories was a short one; the expectation level for this group is (as a result) low. The type of season that Jay Bruce is having so far is unprecedented. Bruce is hitting for power at rates that even Prince Fielder did not at such an age. And he's doing so with a decent-enough strikeout rate. On the shortlist of people that wouldn't surprise me to be atop this list in a year.
...
56. Joey Votto, 1b: Reds (AA)
I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

The most exciting thing about this list is that two of the three are in the high minors...

Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein has been talking about Bruce both Votto:

Jay Bruce, of, Low Class A Dayton (Reds)

With the 10th, 11th and 12th picks of the 2005 draft, the Tigers, Pirates and Reds all took high school outfielders. Both Detroit's Cameron Maybin and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen have been impressive in their full-season debuts, but Bruce has been the best of the trio. Bruce went 5-for-10 over the weekend with a double and his 13th home run of the season, raising his batting line to .320/.386/.575 (including a .416 batting average in his last 30 games). There's so much to like about Bruce: from his pro body to his pretty left-handed swing that has sent exactly half of his 104 hits for extra bases, to his plus arm and the requisite athleticism to hold his own in centerfield for now. The Reds system is still wading-pool shallow, but few organizations can match the elite-pitcher/elite-hitter combination of Homer Bailey and Bruce.

He ranks Votto as the #3 1B prospect in the majors:

3. Joey Votto, Reds
Age: 22.8 Hitting: .322/.396/.579 in 84 G (AA)

What a difference a year makes. Votto put himself on the map in 2004 when he hit .302/.419/.486 for Low Class A Dayton and then put up a .945 OPS in 24 Carolina games. Last year, he almost took himself off the map with a rough year in the Florida State League, where he got off to a bad start and then tinkered with his mechanics, losing both timing and fluidity in his stroke. The Reds worked with him in the offseason on shortening his swing and improving his approach against lefthanders. The results have been phenomenal, as Votto leads the Southern League in batting and home runs (17), while sitting just two behind Jacksonville's Craig Brazell for the RBI lead. Drafted as a catcher, Votto has good hands at first base but isn't especially athletic. If the offensive outburst continues, Votto could be in line for a look in 2007--while Scott Hatteberg is having a nice season, he doesn't represent any kind of major roadblock.

Chris Costansio of the Hardball Times rates Votto as the biggest surprise in the Southern League:

Joey Votto has had an up-and-down career in the Reds system. This is a good year for him; he is on pace to hit over 30 home runs with a .400 OBP. Only one player, Josh Phelps, has finished with comparable numbers in the Southern League during the past five years. Chattanooga is a hitter-friendly place to play, but Votto has actually hit 13 of his 19 home runs on the road in the Southern League.

I got a chance to see both Bailey and Votto in the Future's game last Sunday. Bailey looked good until he cut his finger--after that point he didn't seem willing to throw anything but a fastball, and his velocity and location were all over the place. But he was absolutely filthy during his first two batters. Really, really exciting to watch.

Votto also looked very good, though it's hard to judge a guy by two at-bats. Still, one thing I noticed that was fun: when he sets his stance, Votto glides back and downward ever so slightly in a smooth and very controlled motion. Reminds me of a left-handed version of another power-hitting first baseman, though his name escapes me. I think he plays for the Cardinals... :)

More Hype for Homer

From Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock column:

RHP Homer Bailey, Double-A Chattanooga (Reds)

Commence breakout. The seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft, Bailey had a fantastic but frustrating first half at High-A Sarasota in the Florida State League, alternating between being literally unhittable (with a pair of six-inning, no-hit outings) and pretty bad (allowing four or more runs in six of 13 starts). Pushed to Double-A for the second half despite just turning 20 in May, Bailey has reeled off his best three-start run of the season. Coming off his third six-inning no-hit game of the year last week, Bailey struck out nine over five shutout innings on Sunday, extending his scoreless streak in the Southern League to 17 innings while allowing just seven hits and striking out 22. As we approach the All-Star break, the Reds are not just still in it, they're only one game behind the Cardinals, and their weakness is pitching. I'm just saying...

From a Minor League Ball Diary:

...I've been waiting for this....looks like he just wanted the competition...He had far too much talent to produce such mediocre numbers in A-ball...I normally don't follow pitching "prospects" so closely, but from the moment I saw his scouting video after he was drafted, I was in love...He also has quite the personality, and the name (nickname) to match...for those not checking the boxscore, his line tonight: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 9 K.

I'm inclined to think he'll stay in AA for most of the rest of the season, but he sure is tantilizing... Please just don't get hurt! :)

Recent Reds minor league player tidbits

First off, I want to highlight redsminorleagues.com, a blog run by Doug Gray, for his excellent coverage of the Reds' minor league system. I've somehow largely overlooked him 'til now, but he's done a great job of keeping everyone current on day to day progress, news, and analysis of our minor league prospects. Other sites that feature excellent Reds' prospect information, of course, include Raising Reds, Redleg Nation, and Reds (and Blues).

A few tidbits on Reds prospects that I've noticed recently that weren't reported elsewhere (I think):

Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein had this to say about Reds prospects in his Midpoint National League Report:

Great Leap Forward: First baseman Joey Votto has returned to 2004 form, batting .315/.387/.563 at Double-A Chattanooga and competing for a Triple Crown in the Southern League. 2005 first-round pick Jay Bruce has exceeded expectations at Low Class A Dayton, batting .290/.346/.537 with 39 of 75 hits going for extra bases.

Not What We Expected: A second-round pick in 2004, outfielder B.J. Szymanski is a lesson in why you take raw, athletic high school players, but not college ones. At 23, Szymanski is only in Low Class A, batting .231/.310/.455, and has a strikeout for every 2.49 at-bats. Catcher Miguel Perez is hitting just .223/.283/.287 at Chattanooga, and while he doesn't have to hit a ton because of his outstanding defensive skills, he certainly has to hit more than that.

Open Questions: 2004 first-round pick Homer Bailey has two no-hit outings, has allowed fewer then two runs in six of 13 starts at High Class A Sarasota, yet has also given up four or more runs six times. With that kind of inconsistency, why rush him with a promotion to Double-A? Can the team resist the urge to also push Bruce and lefthander Travis Wood?

Who Will Be Number One: It's between Bailey and Bruce. While Bruce has closed the gap some, it's probably not enough to pass up Bailey, one of the few pitching prospects with true No. 1 potential.

It's good to see Goldstein praising Bailey more often lately, because he's been rather hard on him most of the season.

I will say that the comment about raw athletic college players is mildly distressing, as some might argue that this is precisely what we did with our #1 selection this year...

John Sickels on Jon Coutlangus, in his update on the Giants' top preseason prospects:

16) Jon Coutlangus, LHP, C+
Claimed on waivers by Cincinnati. Currently has a 2.09 ERA and 36/17 K/BB in 39 innings for Double-A Chattanooga. Having a fine season and could contribute in the bullpen soon if his command improves a bit.

Let's hope he improves fast, along with the rest of his AA-cohort. I'm eagerly awaiting Sickels' upcoming update on the Reds' other top prospects...not on his schedule yet, but maybe next week..

Speaking of Sickels' site, a guy in the diaries there named mowwer rated Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey as among the top 10 prospects in the minor leagues. And no one argued with him on our two guys. For what that's worth. I gotta say, I'm pretty thrilled with Homer Bailey's first two starts in AA. I'm not ready to say he's the next Cole Hamels, but it's pretty exciting to see him catch fire like he has since his promotion. As I ventured recently, maybe a challenge was what he needed to bring his game to the next level. Kudos to Krivsky et al for promoting Bailey when they did.

Vote Red for the All-Star Game

I got an e-mail from the Cincinnati Reds marketing department today. Excerpt:

As you probably know, online voting for the 2006 All-Star Game ends this Thursday at 11:59 p.m. Updated vote counts were announced yesterday, and Ken Griffey Jr. is currently ranked fourth among NL outfielders. We need to move him up one spot for a starting position.

The Reds recently kicked off a campaign to encourage last-minute votes from the fans. I've attached our logo, which was used to create stickers and ballpark signage. Feel free to use it on your blogs if you want to encourage people to vote. Here's a direct link to the ballot: http://www.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/events/all_star/y2006/ballot_reg.jsp.

This means two things to me.

Number one, I need to plug Griffey Jr. and the rest of the Reds for consideration on this year's all-star ballot. So go vote!

Number two, someone in the Reds organization actually reads my blog -- or at least found it when looking around this morning. And that makes me happy. :)

Update: Stay tuned for Griffey's Better Know a Red feature sometime in the coming few days. Hopefully it'll help people remember what a special player he really is.

Update #2: Since we're talking about votes, here's my quick'n'dirty selections for the all-star game this year:

Position	AL	NL
C	Mauer, Joe (38.2 VORP, 0.444 OBP, 0.524 SLG)	Ross, Dave (17.1 VORP, 0.397 OBP, 0.697 SLG)
1B	Hafner, Travis (45.6 VORP, 0.450 OBP, 0.625 SLG)	Pujols, Albert (40.3 VORP, 0.441 OBP, 0.732 SLG)
2B	Roberts, Brian (17.8 VORP, 0.376 OBP, 0.395 SLG)	Phillips, Brandon (20.7 VORP, 0.357 OBP, 0.461 SLG)
3B	Rodriguez, Alex (21.3 VORP, 0.393 OBP, 0.494 SLG)	Cabrera, Miguel (40.8 VORP, 0.447 OBP, 0.573 SLG)
SS	Tejada, Miguel (31.9 VORP, 0.366 OBP, 0.513 SLG)	Reyes, Jose (31.9 VORP, 0.361 OBP, 0.495 SLG)
OF	Wells, Vernon (40.2 VORP, 0.388 OBP, 0.622 SLG)	Beltran, Carlos (33.8 VORP, 0.395 OBP, 0.607 SLG)
OF	Sizemore, Grady (36.6 VORP, 0.375 OBP, 0.548 SLG)	Holliday, Matt (32.7 VORP, 0.395 OBP, 0.606 SLG)
OF	Suzuki, Ichiro (32.6 VORP, 0.409 OBP, 0.450 SLG)	Griffey Jr., Ken (8.7 VORP, 0.311 OBP, 0503 SLG)

Granted, the Phillips and Griffey votes are pure loyalty votes. Phillips is deserving of consideration, but it's pretty hard to ignore what Dan Uggla (29.1 VORP, 0.366 OBP, 0.532 SLG) is doing this year if you're not a Reds fan. Griffey...well, this is more a salute to his career, and unfortunately results in a slap in the face to Jason Bay (29.7 VORP, 0.407 OBP, 0.562 SLG).

But frankly, I think the Dave Ross vote is totally legit. The guy has been totally unreal, and there really aren't many other good options in the National League. Ok, sure, Brian McCann has a higher VORP (20.0), but he's also played a lot more and his percentage numbers (0.412 OBP, 0.519 SLG), while very good, aren't as fantastic--I mean, look at Dave Ross's slugging percentage! Even though Ross only has 117 plate appearances this season, he's SECOND in the league in VORP, just edging out Michael Barrett (17.0 VORP, 0.370 OBP, 0.508 SLG). So I'm writing him in, and I don't feel guilty about it.

Other comments -- Derek Jeter's offensive numbers justify his inclusion, but I gave my vote to Tejada because I think defense should matter. Brian Roberts barely made the cut over Mark Derosa for AL second basemen...mainly because I've never heard of Mark Derosa. :) But AL second basemen are an even weaker position than NL Catchers.

Prospect reports

I'm in quick catch-up mode... Here are two recent statements about Reds' prospects from Kevin Goldstein's Future Shock column that I found particularly interesting:

Joey Votto

Baseball Prospectus

Votto established himself as one of the few real hitting prospects in the Reds system with a big 2004 season, but the Florida State League proved to be a tough challenge for the Canadian, as he struggled to a .256/.330/.425 campaign at Sarasota last year. That performance is beginning to look like a bump in the road now, as Votto went 7-for-14 with three home runs over the weekend, and is now batting .321/.392/.567 overall in his first taste of Double-A. If he stays put, he's got an outside shot at the Southern League Triple Crown. He's currently 3rd in batting, tied for first in home runs (13) and 2nd in RBI (43), with the leader, Dodgers third baseman Andy LaRoche (46) now playing in Triple-A with no chance to add to the total.

It's great to see Votto doing so well this year. He really struggled last year both in Sarasota and in the Arizona Fall League, but now seems to be back on the prospect radar. We could use a first baseman, and if he's playing in Double-A now, he could potentially be ready for the major leagues by the end of next season. We could use a first baseman too...

Update: PW reports that Votto was listed #3 on Baseball America's Prospect Hot Sheet today. I love how everyone always jumps on the bandwagon at the same time. 'Course, in the credit where credit's due department, we have to credit Chris W with leading the Votto charge. :)

Homer Bailey

Baseball Prospectus:

In Homer Bailey, the seventh overall pick in 2004, the scout saw a potential ace who still has plenty of work to do. Bailey has allowed just 49 hits this year in 70.2 innings for Sarasota while striking out 79, but he's been dogged by inconsistency, allowing five or more runs four times. "He's sitting at 94 mph, and he's still going to fill out a little, so there's more in there," said the scout. "And when the curve ball is on, it's just unhittable." As for Bailey's occasional struggles? "He's young and he's used to dominating and his approach ends up hurting himself," he said. "Instead of being convinced he can get anybody out any time, he needs to start getting ahead of the count more often."

Goldstein has often been critical on Bailey in regard to his make-up, but this scout he is citing is more complementary. I think this may be a very good justification for Bailey's recent promotion to AA--he may need a bigger challenge to help him learn the importance of getting ahead of hitters and throwing strikes.

Reds in sole possession of first place

• I am so impressed with this Reds team. The offense is back and as good as ever, but the pitching has been so amazing. Did you realize that Reds' pitching ranks 7th in the league with a 4.34 ERA? That's insane! By constrast, last season's ERA was an appalling 5.15. I doubt that the pitching will continue to be as good as it has been, but it's so exciting to even have decent pitching…much less above average pitching, which is what they've had so far this season!
• A big part of that is Bronson Arroyo, who continues to amaze me. Who could have ever imagined he'd have the sort of first half that he has thus far? He's so fun to watch. He's almost surgical with his location, and Bob Brenly couldn't stop talking about how Arroyo was constantly changing speeds. Not just by varying between breaking pitches and his fastball, but also varying the speed of his fastball. After about the second inning (he was admittedly a bit wild in the first two innings), no one seemed comfortable against him because he kept them off balance so well. This might turn out to be his career year, but I'm sure glad he's doing this with the Reds.
• I also wanted to give some kudos to Brandon Phillips. I love watching him play defense. His start of the double play in the 4th was sweet--he got rid of that ball so fast, I almost thought that it'd bounced off him. He also made an incredible play on a ground ball up the middle that got only brief acknowledgement from the WGN announcers, but it had him ranging to the other side of the second base bag, pivoting, and throwing off balance to nail the runner. It's easy to forget how much fun great defense can be, but having it now (at second base, at least) sure makes me appreciate it.
• Tonight was the first time I got to see Estaban Yan pitch. He definitely brings another look to the Reds' pen, so I'm pleased with that acquisition. I can see how he could get pretty wild, as his motion is pretty herky-jerky. But if used in the right spots, I can see him being pretty effective.
• Wanted to close by saying that I love the stolen base, as long as they don't get caught. It's fun to see the Reds being aggressive, especially against easy targets like Novoa, who didn't seem to be paying any attention the people on base. I'm still crediting Billy Hatcher with at least some of the improvement in that aspect of the Reds' game. Having three high-percentage base-stealers on the club can be an incredibly potent weapon in tight ballgames.
  

So it's Stubbs

So the Reds took University of Texas outfielder Drew Stubbs in the first round today. I'm going to just have to trust the Reds scouting department with this one. Good power and speed, plus great defense are good things. And high strikeout rates aren't a death-wish to prospects, but they can be problem if the player's good numbers were based on dominating some of the lesser college-level pitching talent while the strikeouts come against the better talent. Nevertheless, Stubbs does walk at a good clip (41 bb vs. 60 k in 243 AB's); if he can maintain a 2bb:3k ratio throughout this development, he could be in the mix for the Dunn/Kearns/Bruce/Stubbs outfield a few years down the road. It's hard to get too upset about the Reds taking a college hitter, as they are easily the most reliable selections in the amateur draft.

But what I'm surprised about is that University of Washington's right-hander Tim Lincecum was available and we didn't take him. Many forecast him as going in the first 5 picks (at least before #1 overall Luke Hochevar entered the picture this past week), but Tim ultimately fell to the Giants at #10. Lincecum has been extremely dominant for the Huskies this year, is the Pac-10 career strikeout leader, and many draft reports seem to think he could pitch with success in the majors within a year or two. I had this vision of both he and Homer Bailey hitting the majors at about the same time and leading our rotation for years to come... :) The major fault I've seen on him is his size, which at 5'11", 170 lbs isn't terribly large for a would-be starter. Of course, scouts who like him compare him to Tim Hudson, who's had a pretty darn good career despite being of roughly the same physique.

As of right now, in the 9th round, the Reds draft looks like this:

1. Drew Stubbs, RHB OF, U Texas Austin
2. Sean Watson, RHP, U Tennessee
3. Christopher Valaika, RHB SS, UC Santa Barbera
4. Justin Reed, LHB CF, Hillcrest Christian HS
5. Joshua Ravin, RHP, Chatworth HS
6. Jordan Smith, RHP, Southern Nevada Community College
7. Justin Turner, RHB 2B, Call St. Fullerton
8. Travis Webb, LHP, Wasthington St. U
9. Jeremy Burchett, RHP, UC Berkeley

So that's 5 pitchers, 4 hitters in the first 9 rounds. 6 college, 2 high school, 1 community college. Pretty good spread of talent, also looks like a fairly "safe" draft. I'll take some time to investigate each of our selections from the first 10 rounds later on (I'm liking Watson at #2 based on initial impressions...). Hopefully we can get 'em all to sign (Justin Reed has a football scholarship to U Miss--maybe we can get Adam Dunn to give him a ring and convince him to go full-time baseball!). And let's hope that a good proportion of them will arrive in the big leagues over the next five years.