The 2016 Hall of Fame Ballot, Graphically

It's Hall of Fame voting season, so I thought I'd contribute my thoughts to the conversation.  "Best to Worst season WAR" graphs, innovated by Sky Kalkman back when he was providing the sabersphere a "hint of lime," have long been my favorite tool for an initial screen of Hall of Fame candidates, and I used to do an annual post at Beyond the Boxscore looking at each year's ballot.  Let's do it again!

Some quick methods notes: the gray line in the graphs is the "Hall of Fame Zone," which is based on a (now old) study by Jeff Zimmerman, and spans from the 20th percentile Hall of Famer to the 50th percentile Hall of Famer.  There are Hall of Fame players below that line (20% of Hall of Famer seasons, in fact!). Nevertheless, given the occasional questionable decision by the BBWAA, it seems a good benchmark that players should be within or above that zone for at least a good chunk of their careers.  This is not the only thing that matters, and other metrics (like Hall of Stats' Hall Score) are also useful, as are more nuanced investigations of player careers.  But this is still my favorite approach.

Starting Pitchers

There are four starting pitchers on the Hall of Fame ballot this year.  The benchmark for pitchers in the Hall of Fame, based on other pitchers already in the Hall, is a tad lower than it is for position players (~.5 WAR per season of their career).  Nevertheless, it's hard for pitchers to get into the Hall because injuries tend to shorten careers so quickly.

Of the candidates, based strictly on the numbers, three are clearly deserving and, should be shoo-ins: Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Mike Mussina.  Mussina maybe didn't have the fame of the others, but I'm frankly baffled at the pushback that Schilling gets.  As Tom Tango and others have argued, Schilling is the pitcher that voters seemed to think Jack Morris was: he was dominant in the regular season, and just unbelievable in the postseason.  The numbers above don't include his postseason, but between his ridiculous performance for the '01 Diamondbacks (including the World Series MVP) and the whole bloody sock thing for the '04 Red Sox, he really is the consummate postseason ace.  His career line in postseason action?  133 1/3 innings, 2.23 ERA, 8.1:1.7 k/9:bb/9.  Pure dominance.

With Clemens, there is no question about his performance qualifications.  The question is how much we discount his candidacy given his documented use of steroids.  I've gone back and forth on this over the years.  Here are the specific voting criteria specified by the Hall:

Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

Does a player's use of performance enhancing drugs disqualify them based on "integrity, sportsmanship, and character"?  I definitely see a strong case for this.  At the same time, there are some really despicable characters already in the Hall of Fame (Ty Cobb is the standard example).  And there was rampant drug use throughout the '70's and 80's before steroids started to appear in the game (especially amphetamines), so it's hardly the case that the "steroid" era players were the first to use performance-enhancing substances.  Finally, while we do know that some Hall of Fame-caliber players definitely used (Clemens, Bonds, McGwire), there are a lot of guys who probably also used in that era who we don't know about.  And we can't guess, either: I'm really disturbed by the "witch hunt" that seemingly has been going on, with guys like Jeff Bagwell accused and therefore passed over for the Hall without a shred of evidence.

What I've arrived at is the notion that the Hall of Fame is a museum, and "Hall of Famer" players are those who made the largest impact on the game via their play on the field.  Those impacts don't have to be universally positive.  If that's my definition, then there's no question, in my mind, that Clemens should be inducted.  I'd put him on my ballot.

...Mike Hampton had a few very good years, and was probably an underrated pitcher over his career.  But he seems to fall pretty short of being a Hall of Famer.  So, in summary:

No Doubters:
Roger Clemens
Curt Schilling
Mike Musinna

Hall of Good (not Great):
Mike Hampton

Relief Pitchers

There are three relievers on the ballot: Lee Smith (who is returning), Billy Wagner, and Trevor Hoffman.  For comparison, I've also plotted Hall of Famers Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers.

I really don't know what to do with relievers.  As the graph indicates they really just don't pitch enough innings to get anywhere close to the Hall of Fame zone.  Furthermore, in almost all cases, we have a set of players self-selected to be relievers because they weren't good enough to be starting pitchers.  That makes it pretty hard to give them serious consideration.

That said, if you believe that Rollie Fingers deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, then you would be hard-pressed to deny Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman, or Billy Wagner those same honors.  They were basically all just as successful as the other.  They didn't have Sutter's peak (or, of course, Sutter's inning totals), but they all had greater longevity and were the best at their "position" during much of their careers.  I don't think any of them are shoe-ins, but I can see an argument.

Debatable:
Lee Smith
Billy Wagner
Trevor Hoffman

Position Players

There are a lot of hitters on the ballot, as there are every year.  I'm going to work through them in order of decreasing career WAR, five at a time.

Bonds: See comments above about Clemens.  Except that Bonds is probably the best hitter ever.

I was kind of relieved to see how well Griffey rates out here.  His tenure with the Reds (which is largely at the right tail of his line) was sad and depressing.  But he was so darn good while with the Mariners that he was already pretty much a lock of the Hall before he arrived in Cincinnati.  10 seasons well above the Hall of Fame average makes him an easy pick.

The other slam dunk here is Jeff Bagwell.  Bagwell might not have had the longevity of some players on this list, but he was brilliant throughout his career.  I always remember him as having such an aggressive swing.  He leaned in so much that I always thought he was off-balance.  And yet, he walked a ton, and struck out at a pretty low rate for a player with so much power.

Alan Trammell's is almost a carbon-copy of Barry Larkin's career.  He was on the ballot before Larkin arrived, and they both deserve to be in the Hall.  Barry got in.  But this is Trammell's last chance (to be voted in, at least).

The only player on this list who is a little bit questionable, maybe, is Larry Walker.  Walker had those two brilliant years, and was usually near the performance of the other guys.  But his #3 through #7 seasons were just very good, not great.  But despite his reputation for being fragile, he had longevity: his 8th-best season, which was still pushing 5 WAR, was right-on Hall of Fame average, and he stuck there the rest of his career.  If you push some of those peak year WAR into the #3-#7 seasons, his line might look a bit more compelling.  I just don't think there's much of a counter-argument here.

Here we start to get into eyebrow-raising territory.  For me, the best 10 years of a players' career are the most important.  By those criteria, Edgar Martinez clearly has an above-average case, as does...Jim Edmonds?  There's a lot of chatter about Edmonds right now, because he doesn't seem to be getting a lot of support among writers.  But while the lower-tier seasons of his career aren't where one might want them, his 10-best (well, 9-best, anyway), are solidly in or above the Hall of Fame zone.  It's fashionable among Reds fans to hate the guy, but he was a heck of a player and has a very solid Hall of Fame case.  One of the highlights of my move out to Arizona in 2001 was catching a game in St. Louis and watching him lay to steal a long drive in center field.  I've kinda always liked him.  ::shrug::

Mark McGwire has the controversy due to his PED use, but at least he's admitted it and tried to move on.  His career is a lot like Edmonds', and his home run chase in '98, even despite the subsequent steroid scandal, still did more good for baseball than anything else I've personally ever seen.

Tim Raines is a sabermetric darling, mostly because he made such an impact on several important Expos fans and superb sabermetricians, most notably including Tom Tango.  His peak was very good, and he had the longevity.  The middle-tier of his career wasn't quite there, though.  He reminds me a lot of Larry Walker, at least in terms of overall numbers and shape of his curve.  It's a solid case, but not a slam dunk.

That leaves Gary Sheffield, and he's the first who is probably best labeled "debatable."  He had tremendous longevity, but his peak years rate out as being around the 25th to 30th percentile Hall of Famer.  So, maybe?

Mike Piazza was a very near miss last year, and seems to be getting a lot of support this voting season.  But by these numbers, at least, he is not overly compelling.  The Hall of Stats gives catchers a substantial boost by default, because otherwise the demands of the position prevent them from posting totals that keep up with other positions.  They don't play as many games per season, and they don't play as many years...or if they do, they age faster.  Plus, we don't have data on some of the things that Piazza might have done well (e.g. was he a good framer?  Was he, as I've heard argued more recently, a great game-caller?), so this might be underrating him.  Still, I don't think I'd rate him better than "solid."

Similar to Piazza's curve is Slammin' Sammy Sosa's.  Sosa had the better peak season, but otherwise Piazza's line matches Sammy's very well.  I'm not willing to give Sosa quite as much benefit of doubt, however, because I feel like we probably had a better read on his fielding.

Garciaparra is such an interesting case.  He's a little bit like Ernie Banks in that he had a wonderful part to his career that lasted about 6 seasons (Banks lasted about 7, and peaked better), but then a huge drop-off in his production afterward.  If you're someone who puts almost all the emphasis on the peak 5 seasons, I can see an argument for Nomar.  But I think he's probably falling a tad short for me, given how bad he was outside of his peak.

Jeff Kent and Fred McGriff are also, I think, falling just a tad short.  Both were very, very good players for a long time.  But I think they don't quite make my Hall of Fame.

I'm surprised every time I see Troy Glaus's almost-8 win season.  But while he was a very good third baseman, he didn't quite reach Hall of Fame standing, much like the other players on these two graphs.

So, to summarize the hitters:

No Doubters
Barry Bonds
Ken Griffey Jr.
Jeff Bagwell

Clearly Deserving
Alan Trammell
Larry Walker
Edgar Martinez
Jim Edmonds
Mark McGwire

Solid case
Tim Raines
Mike Piazza

Debatable
Gary Sheffield
Sammy Sosa
Nomar Garciaparra

My Hall of Fame Ballot

The current Hall of Fame ballot still only permits 10 entries.  I have six guys who are no-doubters on this list, so that's not good news.  But here's what I'd do, if I had a vote (ranked in a rough order):

1. Barry Bonds
2. Roger Clemens
3. Ken Griffey Jr.
4. Jeff Bagwell
5. Curt Schilling
6. Mike Mussina
7. Alan Trammell
8. Edgar Martinez
9. Larry Walker
10. Jim Edmonds

McGwire gets squeezed...and I won't lie that part of the reason for that is the steroid thing.  Push comes to shove, I guess PED's do matter to me, at least as a tiebreaker.

If I had a bit more space, I'd go:

11. Mark McGwire
12. Tim Raines
13. Mike Piazza

Given how many are on this ballot already, I'm inclined to leave off those I flagged as "debatable," which includes all of the relievers.  Great players, all, but I can't vote for everybody.

Of those on this list, six were on my ballot when I last did this for the 2011 ballot: Bagwell, Trammell, Martinez, McGwire, Raines, and Walker.  Time to get your act together, BBWAA!

Who is an All-Star?

Tuesday, I had a piece run at Hardball Times that used projections to pick the participants in the All-Star Game.  The premise is to get away from just using 2-3 month samples to select our players, and instead use projections to pick the players who have the most talent.

One alternative to doing this, which came up in a round-table discussion between myself and Dave Cameron at FanGraphs on this subject, is to instead choose players based on past calendar-year performance.  The advantage here is that it's a bit more straightforward: assuming we can properly measure everything that happens on the field (that's a big if!), all a player needs to do is produce better than the other players in the league at his position to get the nod.  We don't have to worry about aging curves and regression and luck.  Just produce, and you'll be rewarded.

Here's a comparison for how the three approaches would differ (and be similar), comparing my projection-based roster to one according to FanGraphs' WAR Calendar-Year splits, as well as Vince Caramela's first-half All Star selections.

American League

Position	True Talent All Star	Past-162 G All Star	First-Half All Star
C	Joe Mauer	Victor Martinez	Alex Avila
1B	Miguel Cabrera	Adrian Gonzalez	Adrian Gonzalez
2B	Ben Zobrist	Ian Kinsler	Howard Kendrick
3B	Evan Longoria	T-Adrian Beltre & Evan Longoria	Alex Rodriguez
SS	Yunel Escobar	Alexei Ramirez	J.J. Hardy
LF	Josh Hamilton	T-Brett Gardner & Josh Hamilton	Josh Hamilton
CF	Curtis Granderson	Curtis Granderson	Curtis Granderson
RF	Jose Bautista	Jose Bautista	Jose Bautista
SP	Felix Hernandez	Justin Verlander	Justin Verlander
RP	Mariano Rivera	Jonathan Papelbon	Jonathan Papelbon

While you see different names in many of the positions, if you go back and look at my THT article, every single one of the FanGraphs' WAR picks are within the top tier of the projections.  The same is true if you look at the FanGraphs' WAR leaderboards.  Most of the time, even when there's disagreement, the true talent selection is very close.  Heck, at 3B and LF, they were in a tie with someone else!

On the other hand, we do see some putative small-sample selections in the first-half All Star picks.  Alex Avila's an interesting player and has had a great first half, but he ranks 7th by projections and is in a tie for second by the past-162 splits.  Howard Kendricks' even more extreme, ranking 11th by projections (behind even guys like Nishioka and Jason Kipnis) and 4th by past-162 game WAR.

National League

Position	True Talent All Star	Past-162 G All Star	First Hall All Star
C	Brian McCann	Brian McCann	Brian McCann
1B	Albert Pujols	Joey Votto	Prince Fielder
2B	Chase Utley	Rickie Weeks	Rickie Weeks
3B	Ryan Zimmerman	Chase Headley	Ty Wigginton
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	Troy Tulowitzki	Jose Reyes
LF	Matt Holliday	Matt Holliday	Matt Holliday
CF	Andres Torres	Michael Bourn	Matt Kemp
RF	Jayson Werth	Mike Stanton	Lance Berkman
SP	Josh Johnson	Roy Halladay	Roy Halladay
RP	Mike Adams	Carlos Marmol	Craig Kimbrel

There were two fairly major disagreements here between the projections and the past calendar year picks.  First, Chase Headley at 3B by FanGraphs' WAR, who ranked 10th in the projeciton rankings (Zimmerman ranked 2nd by FanGraphs' WAR).  The second was Michael Bourn in CF, who ranked 12th in the projection rankings (Torres ranked 6th in the WAR rankings).  Beyond that, again, there was good agreement pretty much across the board.

Among the first-half All Stars, the biggest outlier pick is Ty Wigginton, but Chase Headley would be my selection based on the extra playing time this season if nothing else.  You can also complain about Lance Berkman, although he was effectively in a tie with Jason Werth for the projection's choice...and a lot of his merit comes down to how good (or bad) you think his fielding is.

In the end, I have no argument with people who want to use past-162 game splits.  In most cases where they disagree with projections, they do so within the margin of error in either measurement or projection (or both).  Where they disagree, however, I side with the projections.  They seem more obviously to be selecting players with the best talent, and those are the players that I prefer to see make it to the All Star Game.

But insisting on using first-half statistics to justify an all-star game roster?  There, I just don't get it.

Barry Larkin for the Hall

I finished a piece last night, running today at Red Reporter, arguing for Barry Larkin's induction into the Hall of Fame. Response has been very positive, with links from BBTF (Repoz) and Rob Neyer, among others. Everyone seems to think that Larkin should get in (as I show, that's clearly supported by the data), but some think he might have some trouble. Hopefully he'll get in before guys like Jeter start appearing on the ballot.

The Reds and WAR - Best Pitcher Seasons (1900-2008)

Did Dolf Luque have the best pitcher season in Reds history? By WAR, yes, you can argue that he did. Image via Wikipedia

Guest writer Greg from Atlanta returns with his break-down of the best pitcher seasons by Reds pitchers. You can read his piece on the best Reds hitter seasons here.

The following is a WAR based looked at the Reds best pitcher seasons of all time and a sequel to this look at the 15 best Reds hitter seasons. The WAR pitching metric includes some interesting adjustments – particularly an adjustment for the defense. Pitchers who pitch behind a great defense (which were a key feature of the 39-40 Reds and the Big Red Machine) will find some of the runs they saved credited to the defense, while pitchers who labor with a lousy defense behind them (think Aaron Harang in 2007) get some extra credit.

If we included all years back to 1876, 7 of the top 9 Reds pitcher seasons would belong to 19th century pitchers. The differences between 19th century baseball and baseball of the early 20th century were huge, and most of those differences revolved around pitcher usage. The 1882 Reds (which won the American Association with a 55-25 record) featured a three man pitching staff, and two of those (Will White and Harry McCormick) combined for 97% of the team’s innings pitched. White made 2/3 of the team’s starts, went 40-12, and posted a team record 12.2 WAR. If you accept the WAR totals without any adjustments, you have to believe the greatest players of all time were all 19th century pitchers. For the purposes of this ranker, I will use a 1900 cutoff, and with a tip of the cap to Will White, Billy Rhines, Tony Mullane and the other Reds 19th century greats, lets take a look at the top 15 Reds pitching seasons since 1900.

15 – Bucky Walters 1940 – 6.4

Bucky Walters had a remarkable career, coming up with the Boston Braves in 1931 as a light hitting third baseman. He converted to pitching with the Phillies in 1935, and he promptly led the league in losses in 1936 despite an ERA+ of 106. Acquired by the Reds in mid 1938, he blossomed into a star for the 39-40 team, as he led the league in wins, ERA, and fewest hits/9 in both seasons. His 1940 season was the best in the National League, and he added two complete game wins in the World Series against the Tigers.

14 – Noodles Hahn 1901 – 6.5

Hahn was the first of a long line of Reds pitchers that had brilliant but injury shortened careers. Despite pitching only 7 seasons, he has the highest total WAR for any Reds pitcher. In 1901 at age 22, Noodles completed 41 of 42 starts, led the league in strikeouts, and was the third best pitcher in the league (behind Christy Mathewson and Vic Willis).

11T – Mario Soto 1983, Jim Maloney 1966, Fred Toney 1915 – 6.6

Speaking of brilliant but injury shortened careers, Mario Soto and Jim Maloney are tied for 11th with their second best seasons by WAR. Soto ranked second in the majors in WAR in 1983, led the NL in strikeouts, complete games (18), and ranked second in strikeouts and in the Cy Young vote behind John Denny. Over a five year period from 1981-1985, Soto made 162 starts, completed 63 of them, tossed 1200 innings and was essentially done as an effective pitcher just as the Reds were becoming a contender. In 1966, Maloney had “only” the 4th best WAR in the NL, but it wasn’t exactly an embarrassment to rank behind Sandy Koufax, Juan Marichal, and Jim Bunning. From 1963 – 1969, Maloney averaged 4.9 WAR per season, but in his second start in 1970, he tore his Achilles tendon and was finished just as the Reds were becoming a contender. Fred Toney’s 1915 was one of the great fluke years by a Red pitcher – he was a waiver find that went 17-6 with a 1.58 ERA for a seventh place Reds team. Using the neutralized pitching tool on Baseball Reference, his season translates to 19-4 with 2.13 ERA in 2008 at GABP.

9T – Gary Nolan 1967, Noodles Hahn 1903 – 6.8

Gary Nolan was the Reds first round draft pick in 1966, and made the team as an 18 year old in 1967. He promptly posted one of the greatest seasons ever by a teenage pitcher, going 14-8 with a 2.58 ERA and 206 strikeouts in 226 IP. He ranked 2nd in the majors in WAR behind Jim Bunning, 4th in the league in ERA and strikeouts, and in a memorable no decision on June 7th, he struck out 15 Giants (including Willie Mays four times) in 7 2/3 innings. His season translated to 2008 would have been 17-7, 2.97 ERA with 198 strikeouts in 218 IP. Granted, it was a pitchers era, but at that time Crosley Field was one of the best hitter parks in the NL. Imagine if Homer Bailey had come up in 2005 (he spent the year in class A Dayton), immediately placed among the league leaders, and struck out Albert Pujols four times in a game – that is what Nolan accomplished as a teenager in 1967.

Nolan was another great “what if” among Reds pitchers, and probably would have benefited more from modern pitcher usage (and modern medicine) than any other in Reds history. He struggled with injuries in 1968 and 1969, and then was the Reds best pitcher from 1970-72, throwing 671 IP in his age 22-24 seasons. However, the workload took its toll and he missed almost two years with injuries. He came back in 1975 and made the transition from great power pitcher to an extreme control pitcher and was a key rotation member of the 75-76 Reds. In 1976 he gave up more home runs (28) than walks (27) but by age 29, his career was finished.

8 – Mario Soto 1982 – 7.0

Mario Soto was like Aaron Harang, only better. Both were durable power pitchers, with good control being offset by giving up the long ball (Soto led the league in homers allowed 3 times in a five year span). The 61-101 1982 Reds remain (as of this writing) the only team to lose 100 games in franchise history, and one has to wonder how much uglier they would have been without Mario. He ranked second in the league in strikeouts, 4th in ERA, and 3rd in WAR behind Steve Rogers and Joe Niekro. But with no run support (18 starts where the Reds scored 3 or fewer runs), Soto ended up with a 14-13 record and in an era when W-L records dictated the Cy Young voting, Soto ranked 9th.

7 – Bob Purkey 1962 – 7.2

Perhaps the biggest surprise in the top 15, Bob Purkey was a unique pitcher. He used a knuckleball, but was not a knuckleball pitcher. He mixed it in with a fastball, curve, slider, and sinker and relied on his defense and control. In 1962 he went 23-5 with a 2.81 ERA in 288 IP for a Reds team that was considerably better than the 1961 pennant winners, but still finished third. His 7.2 WAR was second best in baseball (curiously trailing Turk Farrell of Houston, who posted a 3.02 ERA in 241 IP for the season). Purkey had a number of other solid seasons, and was a worthy selection of the Reds Hall of Fame in 1974.

5T – Bucky Walters 1939 and Noodles Hahn 1902 – 7.7

If you look at the standard stats, Bucky Walter’s 1939 season looks like the best season by a Reds pitcher in history. He went 27-11 with a 2.29 ERA in 319 innings, and won the NL MVP and the pitching triple crown (although it only took 137 to tie for the league lead in strikeouts). Bill McKechnie put together a tremendous defensive infield (Frank McCormick, Lonnie Frey, Billy Myers and Billy Werber combined for an estimated 40 runs above average in Total Zone) and Walters took full advantage. He was wild (109 walks in 1939 or 3.1 per game in an era when the league leaders would walk about 1 per game) but by allowing very few hits thanks to a great sinker and infield defense he was still very effective. He was the second best pitcher in baseball in 1939, trailing only Bob Feller.

WAR sees 1902 as Noodles Hahn’s best season, when he posted a ridiculous 1.77 ERA in 36 starts (completing 35 of them) for a mediocre Reds team. His 170 ERA+ was second in the league behind Chicago’s Jack Taylor, who also edged Hahn in WAR that year. Over a 4 year period from 1901-1904, Hahn completed 143 of 146 starts, but he was out of baseball by age 28.

4 – Jim Maloney 1965 – 8.0

Maloney was a classic power pitcher, ranking in the top three in the league in strikeouts per 9 innings nearly every year from 1963 – 1968 but also walking more than his share (including 110 in 1965). The 1965 Reds were a great offensive team (leading the league in runs scored by over 100 runs), but Maloney was the only starter on the team with an ERA better than league average. Some highlights from his season:

4/19 – In his first start of the year, Maloney gives up only one hit (a single by future Red Denis Menke leading off the 8th inning) in a 2-0 win.

6/14 – In the greatest start in team history during the Retrosheet era (game score of 106), Maloney holds the Mets hitless for 10 innings, then gives up a home run and single in the 11th. Jim’s line for the 1-0 loss – 11IP, 1 ER, 18 strikeouts and 1 walk.

8/19 – Maloney had to be thinking “not again” when he held the Cubs hitless in the first nine innings at Wrigley. In the top of the 10th, Leo Cardenas homered to give him a lead, and he closed out the shutout and no hitter in the bottom of the 10th. This one wasn’t as clean as the loss in New York – Maloney struck out 12 while walking 10.

9/1 – A five hit shutout against Milwaukee, featuring 12 K’s and only 1 walk.

Thru his age 29 season, his most similar player list reads like a who’s who of great power pitchers (Koufax, Carlton, Jenkins, Dwight Gooden and Jim Palmer are all on his top 10 list), and one has to believe that had has career lasted into his late 30’s he could have added considerably to his win total with the Big Red Machine behind him. Even with the shortened career, WAR sees him as the greatest Reds pitcher of the last 75 years in total WAR.

3 – Ewell Blackwell 1947 – 8.3

Signed as a 19 year old by the Reds in 1942, Blackwell had a cup of coffee with the Reds before joining the service for the duration of the war. A 6’ 6” lanky righthander, Blackwell combined a great fastball with an unusual sidearm motion, and in 1947 he was incredibly dominant for a 5th place Reds team that went 73-81. Blackwell went 22-8, led the league in wins and strikeouts, and was second in ERA (behind Warren Spahn, who edged him for the highest pitcher’s WAR of the year). Blackwell won 16 straight games, tossed a no hitter on June 18, and then nearly tied Johnny Vander Meer’s record on June 22nd, holding the Dodgers hitless for 8 1/3 innings. He started the All-Star game, and the National League would name him to the All Star team every year whether he was having a good year or not, reasoning that his unique motion would be tough on the American League (he struck out 12 in 13 2/3 innings with a 1.32 ERA in his All Star game appearances). He was plagued by a number of injuries for the rest of his Reds career, but posted another excellent year in 1950 (6.3 WAR).

2 – Jose Rijo 1993 – 8.6

Jose Rijo’s 1993 season has a lot in common with Mario Soto’s 1982; a brilliant season that was wasted on a bad Reds team. The 1993 Reds finished 73-89 and 31 games behind the Braves. and were plagued by injuries and turmoil. This was the year that Marge Schott was suspended, Tony Perez was fired as manager after 44 games, and nearly every Red made a visit to the disabled list. Much like teammate Barry Larkin, Rijo usually would miss games each season but in 1993 he made a career high 36 starts, was second in the league in ERA, and led the league in strikeouts. With less than 4 runs a game in run support, Jose was only able to post a 14-9 record despite having the best WAR in baseball. Greg Maddux predictably won the Cy Young with a 20-10 record while Rijo finished 5th. He had one more good year in 1994 before injuries effectively ended his career (except for an emotional comeback in 2001-2002). He has the highest WAR per 220 innings (5.0) of any Reds starter in team history and ranks 5th in career WAR.

1 – Dolf Luque 1923 – 9.9

Dolf Luque was one of the stars of the good Reds teams in the 1920’s, which featured pitching and defense and very little offense. The 1923 Reds were one of the better editions of those teams, finishing in second place with a 91-63 record (ranking 7th in runs scored and 1st in runs allowed). During his 12 year career with the Reds, Luque generally posted better than league average ERA’s with .500 W-L records, but in 1923 everything clicked for the 32 year old from Havana. He led the league in wins (27), ERA (1.93 in a hitters era), was second in strikeouts and allowed a total of 2 home runs in 322 IP. In WAR, it ranks among the top 25 seasons by a pitcher since 1900, and was not exceeded until 1946 when Bob Feller posted a 10.1 season. Luque ranks just behind Jim Maloney in total WAR for a Reds pitcher, and was inducted into the Reds Hall of Fame in 1967.

And lets not forget the trailers – the five worst seasons by a Reds pitcher were:

T5 – Dave Tomlin 1978, Si Johnson 1935 (2.7)

Why win/loss records are meaningless, part 47 – in 1978 relief pitcher Dave Tomlin managed to post a 9-1 record for the Reds. He also posted a 5.78 ERA, gave up almost 2 baserunners per inning, and an ERA+ of 62. The Reds finished 2.5 games behind the Dodgers, so having a reliever almost 3 games under replacement didn’t help matters any. Si Johnson had the misfortune of pitching for the Reds in the early 1930’s, and his .348 winning percentage (46-86) is the worst in team history.

T3 – Jim O’Toole 1965, Jean Dubec 1909 (3.0)

Jim O’Toole was one of the better Reds pitchers of the 60’s, but in 1965 had an awful year, going 3-10 with a 5.92 ERA (that would translate to 6.92 in 2008). He bounced back in a part time role 1966, but 1965 was one of the worst in team history

2 – Benny Frey 1935 (3.1)

Like Si Johnson, Benny Frey had the misfortune of pitching for the Reds in the 1930’s and his 1935 season gave the Reds two pitchers that combined for almost 6 wins below replacement level. Despite that, the Reds finished 6th for the year, which doesn’t sound impressive except that the Reds had finished last the previous 4 seasons.

1 - Bill Phillips 1901 (3.2)

Phillips was actually a pretty decent pitcher for the Reds at the turn of the century, but in 1901 he wiped out, posting a 4.64 ERA over 281 IP when the league ERA was 3.32. His start in game 2 of a doubleheader on June 24th didn’t help – a complete game 22 hitter (allowing 19 runs to the Phillies).

For current Reds fans who are wondering – Ryan Dempster in 2003 and Eric Milton in 2005, narrowly missed the worst 5 Reds seasons ever, but do rank in the worst 10.

@BtB: First Basemen WAR Review

Image by Kjunstorm via Flickr

Tonight I posted a WAR review of the most valuable first basemen in MLB history. Pete Rose is the most notable Red to appear--he played 1B more than any other position.

Tony Perez ranks 29th all-time among first basemen, behind Fred McGriff and ahead of George Sisler.

An all-Reds 1B review is underway. :)

Reds WAR Review: Catchers

Bubbles Hargrave is probably the 4th-best catcher in Reds history. I hadn't heard of him. Yes, I'm lame. Image via Wikipedia

At BtB, I've started a series of recaps looking at the most valuable players at each position of all time, as measured by Rally's WAR database. Since I'm a Reds fan, I'm going to do a mirrored series here looking at past Reds greats. It will be a great way to help me learn some Reds history, and has the added bonus of keeping my mind off the current Reds team's woes.

Keep in mind a few caveats: the WAR values you see here are only for those seasons (or partial-seasons) players spent with the Reds. Second, WAR is not a perfect measure of value (I think it is the best available stat of its kind). And third, even if WAR was perfect in measuring what it tries to, career WAR value is necessarily the best way to evaluate who is the "best" player (i.e. peak seasons matter just as much as total career value when deciding things like that).

We'll begin the series with a Top-10 list of Reds catchers!

10. Ivey Wingo.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1915	13	3302	-63	0.313	-5	-1	48	7.3	1.5

This is the kind of lousy Reds fan I am: Wingo played in the second-most seasons by any Reds catcher, and ranks third in PA's among any Reds catcher. And I had never heard of the guy. Wingo wasn't a particularly great player (tied for lowest WAR/yr rate of anyone in the top-18 Reds catchers), but he played a long time, and at his retirement held the NL record for most games caught. His best year with the Reds was in 1917, when he hit 0.266/0.311/0.376 in 432 PA's in a league that averaged 0.249/0.305/0.328. That was good for a half-win above average, which translates to 2.3 wins above replacement that year. His tenure with the club included an appearance in the Reds' 1919 World Championship team, which (in)famously defeated the "Black Sox" that year. He also served as manager of the Reds for two whole games during the 1916 season, nestled between the managerial careers of Buck Herzog and Christy Mathewson. Wingo ended his career with the Reds.


9. Smoky Burgess. Reds Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1955	4	1227	22	0.356	0	0	13	8	4.6

The fun thing about team lists like this, and part of the reason I'm only doing a top-10 list, is that you get players making your top-10 who only played for the Reds for a few years, sometimes as a reserve--but were really good players during their time. Burgess is our first example of this. He was a very good player over a long career, and ranks 27th among MLB catchers in WAR overall. He played four of those seasons with the Reds, and put up outstanding numbers despite serving as the reserve/platoon partner for C Ed Bailey during three of those four years. As a hitter, he hit for good power, fine average, and walking at twice the rate he struck out. His 0.356 wOBA (which is park- and era-adjusted) ranks 4th-best among Reds catchers with more than 50 PA's.

He is also one of just four catchers to be elected into the Reds Hall of Fame (curiously, Bailey is not one of them). How that happened is somewhat inexplicable to me. Chris Eckes of the Reds passed on a bit of info via Greg in Atlanta on this: Burgess was elected in 1975, his 4th year on the ballot, edging out deadball era one year wonder Cy Seymour by just 800 votes. Apparently, it was just a weak year!


8. Johnny Edwards.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1961	7	2624	-53	0.312	4	1	44	8.2	2.2

Edwards broke in with the Reds and played as their starting catcher for six seasons before losing his job to a rookie. I'm sure that stung, but at least he can take heart knowing now that the rookie would go on to become the best catcher in MLB history. For his part, though, Edwards was an average-fielding backstop who put up four decent seasons of performance from 1962-1965 before falling off a cliff in 1966. 1963 and 1965 were 3-WAR seasons, but he fell apart and posted -0.5 WAR seasons in '66 and '67. Hard to keep your job doing that. In his best year, Edwards hit 0.267/0.353/0.474, showing nice power in slugging 17 home runs. He was traded for Pat Corrales in 1968.

7. Ray Mueller.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1943	6	1864	2	0.336	9	3	16	9.2	3.5

Mueller is #7 on our list due to a pair of three-WAR seasons and one other decent season. He came to the Reds after missing the '41 & '42 seasons following his time with the Pirates (possibly military service? Anyone know?). He is best known for catching 233 consecutive games during the '43, '44, and '46 seasons for the Reds (he did miss 1945 while serving in the Army). Mueller had a little bit of power, but his best offensive asset was his ability to get on base. During his years with the Reds, Mueller walked as much as he struck out, which helped him post back to back seasons with ~a 0.350 OBP. Being incredibly durable, at least for a few seasons, didn't hurt either.

6. Tommy Clarke.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1909	9	1935	7	0.339	5	2	37	10.6	3.8

Clarke overlapped with Ivey Wingo during the second half of his tenure with the Reds, but Clarke spent almost his entire career with the Reds and posted above-average offensive performance over that time. As a late-dead ball era hitter, I have a hard time evaluating his individual strengths and weaknesses. But while Clarke didn't seem to have much if any power, he seems similar to Mueller in that he excelled at getting on base, posting a 0.351 career OBP. Also, if his BR Wiki page is any indication, he sounds like he was a pretty fiesty individual.

5. Heinie Peitz.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1896	9	2949	-11	0.331	18	4	42	14.2	3.4

Heinie is our only 1800's player in the top-10, and ranks as the 5th-most valuable catcher in Reds' history. He joined the Reds in a trade prior to the 1896 season, and went on to be their starting catcher until he was traded to the Pirates in 1905. Just shy of an average hitter and an apparently competant fielder, he played a lot during his career with the Reds, which is a big part of how he got to this spot on our list. He also played all over the diamond: most of his starts were at catcher, but he played first, second, third, and even pitched on a few occasions

4. Bubbles Hargrave. Reds Hall of Fame

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1921	8	2605	75	0.368	2	1	23	18	4.8

The Reds have had some great names playing the two position: Ivey, Heinie, Smokey, Admiral...but no one can top Bubbles (though it was apparently a rather cruel nickname that referenced his stutter). But he was more than a name--he was an excellent ballplayer. Aside from Burgess, Hargrave is the first clearly above-average hitter on the list. He started behind the plate for 8 seasons following his arrival in 1921. Hargrave won a batting title in 1926, a season in which he posted a .406 OBP. But his best season was in 1923, when he hit 0.333/0.419/0.521, good for 4.6 wins above replacement. He received MVP consideration in three consecutive seasons from 1925-1927, and ended with a career line of 0.314/0.377/0.461 with the Reds.

3. Ed Bailey.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1953	9	2576	24	0.346	38	10	38	19.4	5.3

Bailey might not have been the hitter that Hargrave was, Bailey was an excellent fielder. In fact, on a per-PA (or inning played, if you like) basis, Bailey has better fielding numbers than any catcher in the top-25 Reds catcher list. Yes, that includes Johnny Bench. Bailey was also a fine hitter in his own right, with good power (28 HR in 1956) and strong on base skills, posting a career line (or close to it) of 0.261/0.359/0.438 with the Reds. Bailey was a 5-time All Star (4 with the Reds), so he clearly was recognized at the time as among the game' elite. Why isn't he in the Hall of Fame, despite his backup/platoon partner Smokey Burgess's membership? My guess is that it's bias against low-batting average players. More on Bailey below.

2. Ernie Lombardi. Reds Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1932	10	4277	114	0.366	-16	-3	35	27.1	4.4

When Bubbles Hargrave left the team after the 1928 season, the Reds didn't have to wait long for their next great catcher. Lombardi arrived in 1932 and was heralded as one of the better hitters of his time. He was a two-time batting champion, including the 1938 season in which he was voted league MVP. He also played in seven all-star games and in two world series--the Reds won one of them (over DET in 1940). Lombardi had good power, routinely posting between 10 and 20 home runs each season. And he walked his share, while hitting for excellent average. But while he was an excellent hitter, both Hargrave and Bailey posted better WAR rates. What made Lombardi special is that on top of all of his other accomplishments, he played a ton during his 10 seasons with the Reds, at least by catcher standards. He played at least 107 games every year with the Reds (average=120), and averaged 420 PA's per year during that time. He ended up with almost 1000 more PA's than Ivey Wingo, who received the third-most PA's of a Reds catcher. Lombardi ranks 20th on the all-time list of MLB catchers.

1. Johnny Bench. Baseball Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1967	17	8568	253	0.369	71	6	98	71.3	5.8

Surprise! Bench rates as the best catcher in MLB history, at least based on WAR. Here's what I wrote about him at BtB:

As a Reds fan I'm biased, but I think if you were to ask a large number of fans the name of the best catcher ever, Johnny Bench's name would be at the top of the poll. It's not a slam dunk, but Bench comes out four wins above Fisk--and Bench had 1200 fewer PA's and a much higher peak. Bench was a brilliant defender, but probably not the best defensive catcher of all time. And he was a superb hitter, but is probably not the best hitting catcher of all time. What sets him apart is that he was extremely good at both offense and defense: with game-changing defense and prodigious power, he redefined his position. No other catcher has ever hit 45 home runs in a season, and only one other Mike Piazza) has topped the 40-mark twice. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time MVP (second only to Berra), a 14-time All Star (13 consecutive), and the winner of 10 consecutive gold gloves. He was the best of the best, and I'm proud that he played for my team...it's nice to be proud of something these days.

Graphics

Reds Catcher Timeline

Below is a graph of total WAR from Reds catchers (primary position only) since 1890. The line is a 10-year moving average.

Striking that since Bench retired, the Reds haven't had a long-term, quality catcher. Best year was 2005 with the LaRue/Valentin combo. Catcher is clearly a position at which the Reds have historically been strong, at least going back to Hargrave. Who will be the next great Reds catcher?

WAR Career Trajectory Graph

Here are the four Reds Hall of Fame catchers, plus Ed Bailey.

Bench was obviously the best, but the most interesting thing to me about this graph is the Bailey/Lombardi comparison. Lombardi was much more productive over his full career. But during their best five seasons, Bailey was probably Lombardi's equal. Bailey should be in the Reds Hall of Fame, at least by my judgment.

Top-25 Reds Catchers, by WAR

Table is sortable--click on the header by which you wish to sort!

Rank	Name	Debut	Seasons	PA	Offense	wOBA	FldRns	Fld/700PA	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/700PA
1	Bench, Johnny	1967	17	8568	253	0.369	71	6	98	71.3	5.8
2	Lombardi, Ernie	1932	10	4277	114	0.366	-16	-3	35	27.1	4.4
3	Bailey, Ed	1953	9	2576	24	0.346	38	10	38	19.4	5.3
4	Hargrave, Bubbles	1921	8	2605	75	0.368	2	1	23	18	4.8
5	Peitz, Heinie	1896	9	2949	-11	0.331	18	4	42	14.2	3.4
6	Clarke, Tommy	1909	9	1935	7	0.339	5	2	37	10.6	3.8
7	Mueller, Ray	1943	6	1864	2	0.336	9	3	16	9.2	3.5
8	Edwards, Johnny	1961	7	2624	-53	0.312	4	1	44	8.2	2.2
9	Burgess, Smoky	1955	4	1227	22	0.356	0	0	13	8	4.6
10	Wingo, Ivey	1915	13	3302	-63	0.313	-5	-1	48	7.3	1.5
11	Vaughn, Farmer	1892	8	2585	-52	0.312	9	2	22	6.7	1.8
12	LaRue, Jason	1999	8	2516	-59	0.308	7	2	42	6.2	1.7
13	McLean, Larry	1906	7	2251	-47	0.311	8	2	36	6	1.9
14	Seminick, Andy	1952	4	1122	-4	0.331	5	3	10	5	3.1
15	Taubensee, Eddie	1994	7	2291	7	0.339	-57	-17	31	4.8	1.5
16	Pavletich, Don	1957	9	1206	13	0.347	-18	-10	6	4.4	2.6
17	Schlei, Admiral	1904	5	1675	-33	0.312	2	1	27	4.2	1.8
18	Diaz, Bo	1985	5	1672	-53	0.299	21	9	26	4.1	1.7
19	Oliver, Joe	1989	8	2598	-87	0.296	10	3	43	3.5	0.9
20	Ross, Dave	2006	3	795	-14	0.315	10	9	14	3.3	2.9
21	Lamanno, Ray	1941	5	1536	-40	0.305	1	0	13	2.6	1.2
22	Wood, Bob	1898	3	492	7	0.351	-3	-4	7	2.6	3.7
23	Campbell, Gilly	1935	3	585	2	0.339	-1	-1	5	2.4	2.9
24	Picinich, Val	1926	3	810	-8	0.324	0	0	8	2.4	2.1
25	Hershberger, Willard	1938	3	427	2	0.34	0	0	4	2	3.3

Next up: First Basemen!

Update (9/15/09): I regret that I mistakenly neglected to include Reds teams prior to 1890 in the above analysis. As a result, some players were mistakenly omitted, though it did not affect rankings among the top-10. Players in the top-25 should have also included Pop Snyder (5 seasons, 6.8 WAR), Deacon White (3 seasons, but 6.2 WAR), and Jim Keenan (7 seasons, 5.7 WAR)