Griffey Traded to White Sox

Today brought an end to Ken Griffey's long and embattled tenure with the Reds. I will do a more comprehensive recap of his career in the next few days, but today I'm going to restrict myself to analyzing the trade itself.

The deal as far as best I can tell: The Reds send Griffey plus $4 million in exchange for 2B Danny Richar and RHP Nick Masset.

Let's start with Griffey.

Recent Hitting:

Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	SBRuns	R/G	RAR
2005	35	CIN	555	17%	10%	22%	0.305	0.301	0.369	0.576	0.275	0.945	-0.467	7.3	46.7
2006	36	CIN	472	17%	8%	15%	0.248	0.252	0.316	0.486	0.234	0.802	0	5.0	12.8
2007	37	CIN	623	16%	14%	16%	0.284	0.277	0.372	0.496	0.219	0.868	0.583	6.3	35.5
2008	38	CIN	425	15%	14%	19%	0.258	0.245	0.355	0.432	0.187	0.787	-0.467	5.2	13.8
4-years			2075	16%	12%	18%	0.276	0.271	0.355	0.503	0.231	0.858	-0.351	6.0	108.7

An optimist might say that Griffey's been bouncing between good seasons and poor seasons over the past four years, and that he's in line to have a good season next year. A pessimist would say that the first half of 2007 was an aberration, and that Griffey has otherwise shown a steady decline. Griffey's overall performance over the past four years has been good: 0.353 OBP, 0.500+ SLG--not All-Star material, but pretty good hitting.

Perhaps the best way to project his offense is to make use of Sal Baxamusa's recently-released "Quick 'N Dirty Marcel" calculator. I've been putting together a post that talks about it, but basically it allows a current Marcel projection based on 2005-2008 statistics. This way, we do take the current season into account (and, in fact, weight it heavily), but we also recognize that the best way to forecast a player's future performance is by considering his work over the past few years, as well as his age, and a bit of regression to league means.

This projection forecasts that Griffey will hit 0.256/0.343/0.461 (0.804 OPS) over the remainder of the season, and finish the year with a hitting line of 0.249/0.351/0.442 in 654 PA's. The playing time is optimistic (pro-rated based on this season's playing time), and would be his highest PA total since 1999. But if we go with it, that works out to about 25 runs above replacement on offense in 2008.

Projecting into next year, using a 5/4/3 weighting for 2006-2008, we can estimate 25.5 RAR in 2009, without aging.

Fielding
Last year, I had him as a -7 runs fielder by range in RF (weighted average of FSR, ZR, and RZR), and John Walsh's arm metric had him as a -8 thrower in right field. Subtracting another 3 runs in value for playing an "easy" position had him as a -18 runs fielder in 2007.

This year, an average of ZR and RZR has him at -6.5 runs. Extrapolating that to a full season puts him at -10 runs in the field. We don't have an arm statistic for him this year, but we can probably regress last year's rating a bit and forecast him as a -5 thrower, mostly because he doesn't get to balls fast enough to stop a fast runner. So that would put him at a -15 runs fielder in 2008. Subtract another 3 runs for playing RF puts him again at -18 runs.

Summing it up
So, this year, I'm projecting him as a +25 RAR hitter and a -18 run fielder, which gives him a projected total value in 2008 of +7 runs above replacement. In the free agent market leading up to the 2008 season, that gives him an estimated value of ~$3 million. He's being paid $12.5 million, so we can reasonably argue that he'll cost the Reds the wins equivalent of $9.5 million this year (about 2 wins).

In 2009, I'm projecting him as a +25.5 runs hitter, a -18 runs fielder, and I'll subtract 5 runs for aging, which puts him at a total value of +2.5 RAR--essentially a replacement player.

So, leading up to today, the Reds seem to have had three options for 2009:

1. Pick up his option and pay $16.5 million to a replacement player. Wins will probably cost about $4.8 million next season on the free agent market, so this move would essentially result in the loss of a bit more than 3 wins next year.

2. Pay $4 million to not have him on the team. This option results in the net loss of just less than 1 win next year due to the salary payment.

3. Trade him to a team that will take him and try to get the other team to at least pay his buyout this offseason. This results in zero lost wins in 2009.

The Reds managed to find a taker for Griffey, and thus were able to choose option #3. It is true that they will pay the rest of his salary in 2008, but that was true in any of the above three options. Therefore, strictly from the vantage point of removing his salary and lack of performance from the roster, it looks like the Reds did well by this deal.

As a bonus, the Reds also got a few players in return! Let's take a look.

Danny Richar, 25-year old LHB 2B
Hitting

Minors
Year	Age	Lvl	PA	%K	%BB		BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	SBRuns	R/G
2005	22	A+	503	13%	6%		0.314	0.300	0.347	0.537	0.237	0.884	0.174	6.4
2006	23	AA	548	14%	9%		0.334	0.292	0.360	0.415	0.123	0.775	0.29	5.5
2007	24	AAA	444	16%	8%		0.345	0.305	0.365	0.505	0.200	0.870	-0.935	6.5
2008	25	AAA	271	17%	7%		0.289	0.262	0.321	0.427	0.165	0.748	0.991	5.1
4years	---	---	1766	15%	8%		0.324	0.293	0.348	0.475	0.182	0.822	0.52	5.9
Majors
Year	Age	Team	PA	%K	%BB	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	SBRuns	R/G	RAR
2007	24	CHW	206	16%	8%	22%	0.245	0.230	0.289	0.406	0.176	0.695	-1.226	3.7	0.4

Richar has posted fairish numbers during his minor league career. 2007 was reasonably impressive, and much of his success came after leaving hitter-friendly Tucson. It earned him a trip to the big leagues after a spot opened up on the club. He didn't hit particularly well last year in the big leagues (small sample size), though, and he has carried those struggles into this year...although a stress fracture in his rib cage delayed the start of his season.

Fielding is hard to tell without more data, though early returns are mixed. Richar was -6 runs in just two months of play according to both ZR and RZR last season at 2B with the White Sox. The Fan's Scouting Report, which I consider to be the most reliable source given his minimal playing time, had him as a slightly above-average fielder. He reportedly has a good first step, good speed, and good instincts...but poor hands and average (at best) throwing ability. Similar fielders were Jason Bartlett, Erick Aybar, and Chone Figgins.

Unless his bat comes around quickly and in a big way, I don't see Richar as a starter based on these initial impressions. But he might work as a bench player next year, provided the Fans are right about his fielding.

RHP Nick Masset, 26-year old RHP

Minors
Year	Age	Lvl	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9		BABIP	ERA	FIP	AVGa	OBPa	SLGa	OPSa	R/G
2005	23	AA	157.3	6.0	3.5	1.1		0.348	6.18	4.77	0.302	0.378	0.455	0.833	6.1
2006	24	AA/AAA	115.0	8.2	3.8	0.3		0.326	3.68	3.21	0.255	0.334	0.320	0.654	3.9
2007	25	AAA	45.3	6.6	1.8	1.2		0.317	4.57	4.13	0.277	0.319	0.441	0.760	4.9
3years	---	---	317.6	6.9	3.3	0.8		0.336	5.04	4.11	0.282	0.354	0.405	0.759	5.1
Majors
Year	Age	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	AVGa	OBPa	SLGa	OPSa	R/G	RAR	FIPRAR
2006	24	TEX	8.7	4.1	2.1	0.0	53.6%	0.321	4.15	3.61	0.300	0.361	0.433	0.794	3.4	1.8	1.3
2007	25	CHW	39.3	4.8	6.0	0.5	42.7%	0.352	7.09	4.97	0.323	0.415	0.435	0.850	6.3	-5.2	-0.7
2008	26	CHW	44.7	6.4	4.2	0.8	54.2%	0.354	4.63	4.39	0.312	0.384	0.460	0.844	5.7	-2.7	2.3
3years	---	---	92.7	5.5	4.8	0.6	49.0%	0.350	5.63	4.49	0.316	0.320	0.447	0.767	5.7	-6.0	2.9

While Masset began his career as a starter, he has pitched largely in relief since 2007 (and almost exclusively in the big leagues). His minor league stats show him as someone with modest stuff and modest control, but not someone who is particularly exceptional in either area. Since arriving in the majors, his strikeouts are down (though he's looking better this year), and his walks are up. He does do a pretty good job of keeping the ball in the park, with a near-50% GB ratio thus far and a suprisingly-good 0.6 hr/9 rate in 92 innings in homer-have Chicago.

Masset's RAR looks dreadful so far, but his BABIP is on the high side, and his FIP looks adequate. He's already 26, so he's not likely to get a whole lot better. But he might be a fair middle reliever over the next few seasons.

Summary
With this trade, the Reds managed to dump a financial and performance liability and come out of it $4 million richer next season. I don't expect that the players they're receiving in return for him will amount to much of anything, but given that they are making the league-minimum, it doesn't matter all that much. Overall, I think the Reds "win" this deal.

From a sentimental standpoint, though, this is kind of a tough pill to swallow. I'm going to miss having Griffey on our team. I liked knowing he was there, and was proud of have him on our team--even if his skills were no longer an asset. Sometime in the next few days, I'm going to put together a retrospective on his career, as it'd be nice to go out writing something positive about the guy.

Fun with realignment ideas

File this one under "mostly just for fun..."

I enjoy thinking about league realignment. While I think the 3-division format has been very successful, I also don't feel like the various divisions (and leagues, really) have a lot of individual identity anymore. It also demonstrated that change can often be a good thing. And so, more and more, I've been thinking that constantly changing around leagues and divisions would bring a lot of excitement to the game. It would also help get rid of some of the inequities we're seeing between leagues these days--or, depending on how you do it, it might formalize those inequities in an interesting way.

Tango checked in with some new ideas about realignment recently. His idea is to take the top 6 teams over the past 4-year period and let them pick their division rivals (6 divisions, maybe across two leagues, but maybe not). Or, take the top-6 teams and assign other teams in groups of 6 based on geographic proximity. Then, after 4 years, toss out the old divisions and draw them up again based on recent performance. Sounds exciting and fun to me!

Here's a quick scenario along those lines, based on a combination of the past three-years' win totals (2005-2007; 4-years provided too much of a legacy effect for some teams). I'm going to combine Tango's idea with one from David Pinto and use five six-team divisions within one league. Each division will play two of the other divisions during a season, chosen on a rotating basis. This gets rid of the 16/14-team league imbalance we currently have, and has some other scheduling advantages as well as some exciting playoff scenarios. DH would be home manager preference, announced prior to the start of every series. And like Tango's proposal, I'm grouping teams in sets of five based on their win totals and proximity. I am keeping teams from the same metropolitan area away from one another so they don't interfere with each others' markets.

A	B	C	D	E
NYY	ANA	BOS	NYM	CLE
STL	SDP	PHI	CHW	MIN
ATL	OAK	TOR	DET	HOU
TEX	SEA	MIL	ARI	LAD
CIN	COL	WSN	FLA	CHC
TBD	KCR	PIT	BAL	SFG

And a map of the above divisions:
















You can get division ranges to be smaller if you allow teams in the same metro area to be in the same division, but this isn't too bad. Maybe not as tight as the divisions currently are, but certainly no worse than they were when the Reds were in the NL West.

And while this system does try to keep teams lumped by proximity, it also strives to keep the divisions balanced from a competitive standpoint. I think it does this really well. There are some divisions with teams on the rise and on the decline, but they often seem to balance each other out. The weakest division is probably "B," with San Diego, Oakland, Seattle, and the Rockies all apparently declining a bit this season. But even in that case, all of those teams have been playoff teams in recent years. Pretty darn solid. And, of course, it would get revised every few years to remain current.

Anyway, fun stuff. Again, I don't expect that something like this will actually happen, but I think it would probably be a good thing if it did.

2008 Total Value Measures - Through July 23rd

I've created a new spreadsheet with current total value of players through July 23rd. My intention is to keep this updated weekly moving forward.

Features:

• Total value estimates (in runs) for every MLB position player, based on hitting, fielding, and their position.
• Fielding measures are based on the average runs saved according to zone rating and revised zone rating.
• Pitchers are listed according to RAR (base runs saved above replacement) and FIP-Runs (a defense-independent pitch stat estimating runs saved above repalcement).
• League differences are taken into account.
• Closers get a leverage-based bonus (though it's admittedly rough).
  

Click here to access the spreadsheet

Thursday Night Stats - Through July 23rd

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary. It's been a while, but oh well.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	59	42	0.584	0.0	515	5.09	412	4.08	61	0.508	95
MIL	58	43	0.574	1.0	472	4.68	439	4.34	54	0.525	93
STL	57	46	0.553	3.0	494	4.79	467	4.54	54	0.559	90
CIN	50	53	0.485	10.0	453	4.40	498	4.84	47	0.678	79
PIT	47	54	0.465	12.0	499	4.94	574	5.68	44	0.705	75
HOU	46	55	0.455	13.0	432	4.28	494	4.89	44	0.721	74

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

It's been a while, but the Reds have gone 15-11 since my last update, which has pulled them out of the cellar and into (a distant) 4th place...with the second-worst offense in the division, and the third-worst defense, they don't look likely to surge at this point, but it's nice to see them out of the basement.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have stalled a bit, going 11-14 and seeing declines on both offense and defense.....The Cardinals and Brew Crew have essentially moved in equal and opposite directions, but both are within striking distance of first place... THT's division graph does a great job of illustrating the bimodal NL Central as it is now:

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Dunn	Adam	398	19%	26%	19%	0.245	0.237	0.389	0.554	0.317	0.943	1.102	66.8	7.22	32.3
Encarnacion	Edwin	367	11%	15%	14%	0.267	0.266	0.354	0.513	0.247	0.867	0.881	55.4	6.14	21.8
Hairston	Jerry	213	7%	12%	30%	0.395	0.351	0.398	0.495	0.144	0.893	0.768	37.7	7.56	19.1
Phillips	Brandon	433	6%	16%	17%	0.294	0.275	0.319	0.465	0.190	0.784	0.782	57.3	5.10	15.4
Votto	Joey D	371	9%	19%	26%	0.311	0.272	0.342	0.449	0.177	0.791	0.855	49.0	5.27	14.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	405	15%	16%	19%	0.261	0.243	0.356	0.416	0.173	0.772	0.854	49.6	4.99	12.5
Ross	Dave	145	18%	21%	26%	0.325	0.259	0.400	0.411	0.152	0.811	0.888	19.8	5.85	7.2
Bruce	Jay A	218	7%	26%	25%	0.343	0.273	0.330	0.429	0.156	0.759	0.797	25.4	4.57	4.7
Keppinger	Jeff S	272	7%	4%	21%	0.289	0.287	0.342	0.385	0.098	0.727	0.774	30.1	4.39	4.6
Freel	Ryan	143	6%	13%	20%	0.342	0.298	0.340	0.359	0.061	0.699	0.666	15.1	4.18	1.7
Valentin	Javier	86	6%	15%	15%	0.299	0.263	0.302	0.388	0.125	0.690	0.641	9.3	4.07	0.8
Cabrera	Jolbert	23	9%	22%	20%	0.438	0.333	0.391	0.381	0.048	0.772	0.651	2.4	4.54	0.4
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.1
Hopper	Norris S	58	9%	10%	18%	0.227	0.200	0.286	0.200	0.000	0.486	0.719	3.5	2.17	-2.5
Phillips	Andy A	33	6%	21%	17%	0.208	0.161	0.212	0.226	0.065	0.438	0.583	1.2	1.18	-2.5
Hatteberg	Scott	61	11%	11%	19%	0.191	0.173	0.262	0.231	0.058	0.493	0.701	2.9	1.72	-3.4
Bako	Paul	242	10%	27%	20%	0.278	0.213	0.292	0.343	0.130	0.635	0.741	20.5	3.13	-3.9
Janish	Paul	72	8%	22%	22%	0.250	0.188	0.278	0.203	0.015	0.481	0.656	3.1	1.55	-4.3
Patterson	Corey	213	4%	12%	15%	0.188	0.190	0.224	0.335	0.145	0.559	0.714	15.8	2.50	-7.8

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

Overall, the Reds' linear weights sum to 464, which is 11 more than they've actually scored.....Dunn retains the title of most valuable Reds hitter, and really re-established himself over the past month as he pushed his OPS well over the 0.900 mark.....I continue to be surprised that Hairston is still raked as the best on a per-out basis, though he keeps getting himself hurt which keeps the sample size small...PrOPS still thinks he's been lucky, and a 30% line drive rate is a pretty exceptional thing to see.....Encarnacion also had a really nice surge on offense, more than doubling his value over the past month.....On the other hand, Phillips and especially Votto have really struggled of late, and it shows in their season totals.....Don't look now, but David Ross has the second-highest walk rate on the club and an 0.400 OBP--nice to see the guy finally having some success again.....and the magic may have finally faded for Keppinger...I think he'll rebound a bit, and his OBP is still decent, but that power is now much more in line with what you could reasonably project based on his minor league numbers.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Dunn	Adam	LF	32.3	-0.7	-3.2	28.4
Phillips	Brandon	2B	15.4	8.8	0.6	24.9
Hairston	Jerry	SS	19.1	-1.1	1.1	19.1
Votto	Joey D	1B	14.3	7.0	-4.9	16.5
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	21.8	-11.2	0.5	11.1
Ross	Dave	C	7.2	-1.0	2.1	8.4
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	12.5	-5.8	-3.0	3.8
Bruce	Jay A	CF	4.7	-1.6	-0.1	3.0
Cabrera	Jolbert	SS	0.4	1.9	0.2	2.5
Bako	Paul	C	-3.9	2.5	3.8	2.4
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	4.6	-4.9	1.8	1.5
Freel	Ryan	CF	1.7	-1.3	0.2	0.5
Valentin	Javier	C	0.8	-1.1	0.3	0.0
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.1	1.0	0.1	-0.9
Phillips	Andy A	3B	-2.5	0.5	0.0	-2.0
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-2.5	0.2	-0.1	-2.4
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-3.4	0.4	-0.5	-3.6
Janish	Paul	SS	-4.3	-1.1	0.7	-4.8
Patterson	Corey	CF	-7.8	1.1	1.1	-5.6

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

The Reds' fielding numbers sum to -6.5 runs, which is down about 7 runs from last month's check-in, but is still just a tad below average.....I have no idea what to make of Dunn's defensive numbers this year...anyone who watches games want to speculate? Is he running better this year, or is this just fielding stat volatility that we're seeing? My guess is the latter.....Encarnacion unfortunately coupled his offensive surge with some defensive woes, dropping from -3 runs to -11 runs in a month.....I'm not sure if I believe mine eyes, but Griffey Jr. is finally rated above replacement level on the year......Kepp's not doing as well at shortstop this year as he did last year--I have to wonder if the leg injury is part of the reason.....


Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	122.7	9.5	4.3	0.4	7%	51%	0.288	2.49	3.18	0.628	45.2	3.32	32.4	29.4
Cueto	Johnny	123.0	8.3	3.4	1.6	16%	38%	0.285	4.90	4.60	0.786	68.5	5.01	9.3	10.0
Lincoln	Mike	48.3	8.4	2.4	1.3	23%	57%	0.242	3.54	3.84	0.641	18.3	3.40	7.1	2.9
Harang	Aaron	123.0	7.9	2.5	1.5	13%	33%	0.321	4.76	4.05	0.822	71.6	5.24	6.2	17.6
Burton	Jared	48.3	9.3	3.2	0.6	7%	53%	0.307	2.23	2.83	0.645	19.2	3.58	6.2	8.3
Cordero	Francisco	46.3	9.5	5.6	0.8	9%	42%	0.287	3.50	4.03	0.684	21.1	4.10	5.5	2.7
Bray	Bill P	32.3	9.8	4.7	0.6	7%	36%	0.318	2.51	3.19	0.713	15.6	4.36	1.3	4.2
Mercker	Kent	13.7	3.9	5.3	0.7	7%	40%	0.279	3.29	4.78	0.750	6.6	4.35	0.6	-0.6
Majewski	Gary W	18.3	5.9	2.0	0.5	7%	52%	0.371	4.42	3.20	0.801	10.2	5.04	-0.6	2.4
Herrera	Daniel R.	3.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	94%	56%	0.375	9.00	5.35	0.972	2.5	7.63	-1.0	-0.3
Affeldt	Jeremy	50.3	9.5	3.6	1.3	17%	52%	0.321	3.75	3.84	0.771	27.5	4.92	-1.1	2.9
Weathers	David	43.0	6.1	4.0	1.0	12%	44%	0.296	3.35	4.61	0.777	25.8	5.39	-3.2	-1.2
Thompson	Daryl M	14.3	3.8	4.4	1.9	14%	40%	0.327	6.91	6.38	0.947	12.2	7.69	-3.2	-1.7
Coffey	Todd	16.0	3.4	3.4	1.7	24%	54%	0.310	6.75	5.84	0.901	11.7	6.60	-3.3	-2.6
Arroyo	Bronson	119.0	7.9	3.2	1.6	17%	39%	0.331	5.60	4.55	0.862	79.2	5.99	-3.9	10.3
Bailey	Homer	24.3	3.3	4.4	3.0	24%	42%	0.250	6.29	7.71	0.951	19.3	7.15	-3.9	-6.4
Belisle	Matt	29.7	4.2	1.8	1.2	14%	51%	0.364	7.28	4.31	0.914	23.5	7.13	-4.8	3.4
Fogg	Josh	45.7	4.9	2.8	1.8	14%	38%	0.288	7.09	5.41	0.857	30.5	6.00	-6.4	-5.3

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

The Reds' pitching has become Edinson Volquez and everyone else...I don't think anyone would have predicted that at the season's start...Volquez's ERA has finally reached the mid-2's, but the kid continues to pitch his heart out.....FIP continues to be much more positive about the Reds' rotation than their actual numbers, ranking 4 of our starters over 10 runs above replacement, which is in the realm of averageishness.....Cueto seems to be incrementally improving.....I really think that Jared Burton signing was a good one, you know?.....I'm not sounding alarm bells or anothing, but our 33-year old closer's k-rates are down and his walk rates are off the charts--and have been all season...Fangraphs says that Cordero's fastball velocity is unchanged from last year, though, which is somewhat reassuring.....

Overall, Reds' pitchers' base runs sum to 509, which is 12 more than they've actually allowed. Using this estimate, along with the lwts-estimated runs scored of 464, and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives a predicted Reds record of 47-56 (0.454). That's three wins worse than their actual record, and would place them at the bottom of the division--though to be fair, the Pirates and the Astros have also been a bit lucky.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.