My Playoff Team Previews

At this point, I've profiled all four of the remaining playoff teams.  Here's a handy set of links to each one.

American League

• Kansas City Royals
• Toronto Blue Jays

National League

• Chicago Cubs (dates back to mid-season)
• New York Mets
• Los Angeles Dodgers (eliminated)

If the Cubs advance to the World Series...which, at this moment in the 7th inning of game 4, seems pretty unlikely...I'll probably run another profile on them.  But this might be the complete set.

For the record, I'm rooting for the Blue Jays in the American League.  I like the Royals and all, but the Blue Jays are too much fun.  I was pretty stoked to see them hang in there tonight for at least one more game.  Tulo seems like he's heating up.

In the National League, I'm not sure.  I have a hard time rooting for Daniel Murphy.  But I love Curtis Granderson.  I love the Mets' young pitching.  But I like the Cubs' young hitters just as much.  I instinctively feel drawn to the Cubs over the Mets, but my soul can't accept rooting for the Cubs.  So, I'm just enjoying the NLCS.  I'm not sure who I'll root for if the Royals advance to the World Series.  It'd be Cueto on days he pitches.  Other than that, I'll have to wait and see.

The craziest outfield in baseball history

At the end of last month, David Temple posted an excellent episode of the Stealing Home podcast that highlights the rather absurd and definitely unique outfield used by the University of Texas baseball team until 1974.  This is despite the fact that a podcast is almost exactly the wrong medium to describe it.  Really, seeing is believing:

If you look closely along left-center field you can see the "Billy Goat Trail" up to deep center field.  Yes, deep center field was in play, which means outfielders had to run up there to field well-struck balls to center.  Amazing.

EJ Fagan, who was interviewed in David Temple's podcast, posted this article that gives more pictures, more anecdotes, and news accounts of what it was like to play there.  It's a great article, so please give it a look.

Carlos Quentin Retires; Short Personal Note

Carlos Quentin by Keith Allison

The news today is that Carlos Quentin is hanging up his spikes.  It's an unceremonious end to what was at times an excellent career, but also one marked by injuries that held him back from achieving what perhaps he could have.

Carlos Quentin will always be kind of special to me, because he was kind of enough to hit a home run in his major league debut, which also happened to my daughter's first baseball game.  She was just barely two months old.  We were in Arizona at the time (hence J-in-AZ), and my wife got an extra ticket to a baseball game at Chase Field.  I wrote about it here.  Pretty neat; I don't even remember Brandon Webb pitching that night, nor that Stephen Drew was also just breaking into the big leagues.  I've always liked those guys too.  Might be why.

In any case, I've followed Carlos Quentin's career with some interest, and was thrilled when he turned his career around after Arizona seemingly gave up on him after a bad 2007.  Yeah, he lost a lot of time due to injuries.  But when he was on the field, he was consistently one of the better hitters for most of his career.

Here's my little blurb on him from 2006:

Carlos Quentin, another of the Diamondbacks' fantastic looking prospects, celebrated his major league debut tonight by hitting a line-drive 2-run home run to left field. He also hit a line drive right at the left fielder in the 8th. Also darn near made an amazing catch in left field that turned into the Russell Martin double I mentioned above. Not a bad first night. If Quentin goes on to become the star that a lot of people think he will over the next decade, it will be pretty cool to be able to tell my daughter that her first baseball game was also the day of Quentin's major league debut, and his first home run.

Devin Mesoraco's Bat Story

Devin Mesoraco will bring new lumber this year.
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

As someone who now calls central PA home, I absolutely loved C.Trent's story about Devin Mesoraco's bats.  I'm less than an hour from Punxsutawney, and the abundant maple trees in this area are a defining feature of our landscape.  It's pretty neat that he was able to get a dozen bats from trees living on his property.  I'm with the bat manufacturer, though: it's going to be tragic when they get broken this year.  I'm going to wince every time he breaks a bat this season.  Excerpt:

The entire Mesoraco family kept tabs on the process, and they were lucky because one of the two facilities Marucci uses, a mill in Punxsutawney, is just seven miles from Mesoraco's house. From there it was sent to Baton Rouge, Louisiana, where Marucci carves the bats, and even there a bat could get rejected. 

"That was a big fear because you don't know, you can look at a tree, you can read the grain pattern, but you don't know until you get in," Marucci said. "Or even when we cut them on the lathe, there's defects inside. We're so particular, we'll cut 40-some bats to get a dozen. It worked out perfectly, we picked out the perfect trees. We were fortunate and it was some of the best quality wood we've seen." 

In the end, there were 12 bats Mesoraco will use throughout this season — the DM 814 models are the ones from his house, the 814 representing his area code.

Great stuff by C.trent!

Cistulli on the importance of the first-round pick

Carson Cistulli is working through an excellent series looking at the demographics of a "good" player, which he defined as any player who posted at least 3 WAR in any one season from 2010-2014.  Yesterday's edition focused on players who had been drafted, which, based on his prior article, account for about 75% of all good players during that stretch (the others being international or undrafted free agents).  He broke them down by draft round.  Here's what he found for high school draftees:

College players broke down in much the same manner.  There was an interesting difference for junior college draftees, but nevertheless the result is really clear: about half of all players who put up a well above-average season are taken in the first round.  Half!

A lot of fans and people in the media tend to discount importance of draft status in baseball, sometimes equating it to a crapshoot.  We see first-round busts all the time, and we see players who were drafted much later in the draft who put up big numbers.  Nevertheless, every time there's a study done, we see that first round players are far better bets to be productive, and (from other studies) produce far more wins for their teams than later-round selections.

Another small point: the draft is almost entirely the domain of the scout.  Developing baseball players is prone to enormous uncertainty.  Nevertheless, scouts still do a really good job of identifying the best players to take in the early rounds of the draft.

Reds spend second-least on free agents in baseball

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Jeff Todd summarized the spending by all 30 MLB teams on free agents this offseason.  The Reds signed exactly one player: Burke Badenhop to a $2.5 million deal.  That ranks second to last in all of baseball:

Full story here!

Ben Lindbergh leaves Baseball Prospectus

Ben Lindbergh announced today that he is stepping down as Editor-in-Chief at Baseball Prospectus, passing the reigns to his fellow Effectively Wild podcast host, Sam Miller.

Since I failed so miserably at doing so on twitter, I wanted to take a moment to just recognize what Ben did for Baseball Prospectus during his tenure there as editor.  Baseball Prospectus was hugely important to sabermetrics as it got off the ground in the late-90's and early-2000's, but my perception is that by the mid-to-late oughts it had begun to fall behind.  Some of the old guard authors seemed overly antagonistic, archaic, and even elitist (to me, anyway)as they continued to cling to metrics they'd created and relied upon a decade before.  Outside of a few, important authors there, like Dan Fox (now with the Pirates), they seemed slow to acknowledge the work of talented new authors at the Hardball Times and FanGraphs.

That seemed to change over the last five years or so.  I could have sworn that I wrote about it at the time, but I can't find it.  In any case, they've now made a habit of grabbing some of the top minds and writers in the blogosphere, including many who have already moved on to work for teams.  The list is getting really long, but includes names (in no particular order) like Mike Fast, Colin Wyers, Russell Carleton, Harry Pavlidis, Dan Brooks, Jason Parks, and Max Marchi.  Once a place of stasis, BPro is now a leading source for pitchf/x data (thanks to their affiliation with Brooks Baseball), salary information (affiliation with Cot's Contracts), roster information (affiliation with mlbdepthcharts), and catcher framing information.  Not all of that happened under Lindbergh's tenure, but I think a lot of it did.  He has been quick to embrace The New, and to make sure that Baseball Prospectus is positioned as a leading source of innovation and insight in baseball.

On top of all that, I think the thing that might be most important about Ben is his humility.  He's a smart guy, and has accomplished a lot despite being quite a bit younger than I am (and I still consider myself young...ish, anyway).  He has a critical mind, and has done neat work in catcher framing.  But whereas past generations might have come off as haughty, Ben always came off as a guy without much of an ego.  He was respectful to those he disagreed with (at least in public!), and always seemed more helpful and inquisitive than abrasive.  

I've listened to Ben and his replacement, Sam Miller, for well over a year on their superb podcast, Effectively Wild.  I'm relieved that the two of them will continue to podcast there, as they are a mandatory, daily listen.  Sam is a great guy, and shares many of Ben's qualities.  I hope that Baseball Prospectus continues on this path of innovation, research, and humility.

A Sabermetric Voice in the Reds' Front Office

This week in SABR 101x featured an interview with Lewie Pollis, a young sabermetrician with good ideas.  I enjoyed watching this interview with him, especially given that he is now an intern in the Reds Baseball Operations department.


Mentioned in the interview is this piece at BPro that echoes the importance of being reluctant to throw aside sabermetric principles for apparent outliers.  It follows nicely from the work by MGL and Dave Cameron last month talking about the importance of in-season projections.

He also mentions his senior thesis, which attempts to place a value on front office personnel.  I haven't had a chance to read it yet, but it's something I've along been interested in doing (e.g. this poor attempt of mine to evaluate Wayne Krivsky from long ago...my way was poorly done, lacked controls or comparisons, etc).  I'm interested to see how he attempted to control the innumerable confounds needed to evaluate front office moves!

Jesse Winker: a near-future answer in left field?

Reds' prospect Jesse Winker has been having a terrific season in high-A Bakersfield.  He was a 1st-round (49th overall) compensation pick in the 2012 draft when the Reds lost Ramon Hernandez, and so far has vastly outperformed the Reds 1st selection that draft, Nick Travieso**.  He was the Reds' consensus #4 prospect entering the season, and had really strong preseason Oliver projections (0.331 wOBA, *if* he played in MLB this season).  Well, he hasn't disappointed:

And that performance is despite missing a week or so with a concussion following a collision with a wall.  Apparently, it's not currently a factor.

Doug Gray had a nice piece yesterday comparing his raw performance to that of other recent uber-Reds prospects, namely Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Devin Mesoraco.  The short version?  Albeit with caveats, he's comparing extremely well.  Excellent walk rates, solid strikeout rates, and excellent power (as mesaured by ISO).

What are the caveats?  Three big ones:

• Competition level.  Jay Bruce did spend some time at high-A, but also spent time at more advanced levels.  However, Votto and Mesoraco were primarily at low-A in their age-20 seasons, meaning that Winkers numbers are even more impressive in comparison with him.
• Run environment.  Because the Reds' High-A affiliate is now in Bakersfield, Winker gets to play in the California league.  That league has the highest run environment among leagues above rookie ball (~5.3 runs/game when I looked at this between 2007-2009).  And furthermore, Bakersfield is a moderate hitters park for that league (runs park factor 1.03), and is especially favorable to the home run (1.15).  By comparison, the midwest league is quite pitcher friendly, even if Dayton is a bit of a hitter's park (park factor 1.07), meaning that the games played by Votto and Mesoraco are close to neutral.  When Bruce played in high-A, he was playing in Sarasota with the Florida State League, which is about as pitcher-friendly of a league as you can find.
• Sample size.  Doug is comparing Winker's 239 PA's against a full minor league season by Bruce, Votto, and Mesoraco.

Nevertheless, despite all of that, it's very encouraging to see Winker performing so well!  I think it's reasonable to expect a mid-season promotion to AA at this point.  If he hits well there, he could potentially be at least a long-shot for left field coming into spring training in 2015.  This possibility was discussed by Joel Luckhaupt in a recent Redleg Nation Radio.  Goodness knows that the Reds could use some help in left field!

** This was not to condemn Nick Travieso.  After a slow start to his career, Travieso is having a quality season at Dayton this year as a control-oriented starter.  His strikeout rate is still far from where I'd like it to be, but he could potentially still work out to be a back-end starter.  Doug Gray has said that he's seen Travieso throw in the mid-90's over the past year (albeit inconsistently), so there might still be stuff there to succeed.

Cameron: Johnny Cueto's Fastball Unhittable

Dave Cameron pointed out today that a big part of what has made Johnny Cueto so amazing this year is that his four-seam fastball has been nearly unhittable:

I mean, sheesh.

Cueto is known as a sinkerballer, and that's still very much what he is.  His ground-ball percentage still stands at 53%, and he still throws his sinker a healthy portion of the time (22.5%).  But Cueto has been seeing uncanny results with his four-seam fastball, which he is throwing a bit more often this season:

***Note also: Tony Cingrani also appears on this graph of low wOBA allowed.

That increase in his four-seamer frequency seems to part of why he's showing a 1 mph increase in his "fastball" velocity this season, although all of his pitches are seeing small velocity increases:

I tend to expect that outliers as substantial as Cueto is in that first graph are due for a regression.  That shouldn't be a surprise, because Cueto has been so unbelievable this year.  It's pretty rare for a pitcher to be almost twice as good as everyone else on something.

Nevertheless, the Dodgers announcers were talking a lot about Cueto and the deception in his delivery last night.  I think that Cueto's increased velocity, coupled with the deception of how well he hides the ball during his delivery, are a bit part of why he's been able to accomplish what he has this year.  As Cameron states, this is not just a BABIP-inspired oddity.  I can't explain it either, but I am enjoying the ride.

Series Preview: Reds at Phillies

I wrote a series preview for the series against the Phillies at Red Reporter.  Not long before it went live, we got the news of Votto's MRI on his knee.  Like just about everyone, I probably overreacted.  And fortunately, we've since learned that it's probably not a major injury.  That said, it's still concerning, especially given that it happened to the same knee that gave him so much trouble two years ago.

In any case, amongst all the doom and gloom, a lot of us started thinking thinking about where the Reds are, and the potential of where they could be in a few years.  The Phillies are an aging team, and one that seems to lack a clear plan to transition into a younger, better ballclub.  They are locked into a number of large contracts that, despite their considerable market size, may be limiting their ability to get better.  The Reds aren't nearly as old as the Phillies, but they have committed themselves to a number of large contracts.  It may be a bit cynical, but one doesn't have to squint too hard to see a cautionary tale there for the Reds.  If things don't break right for the Reds, they could look a bit like the Phillies in a few years when the pitching leaves via free agency.

For more, check out badenjr's comment and my response.

Is Todd Frazier Seeing More Pitches?

John Fay penned a nice profile on Todd Frazier yesterday for the Enquirer.  In it was this little nugget from Todd:

Frazier credited hitting coach Don Long and assistant hitting coach Lee Tinsley for helping him.

"They really don't get too in-depth with me," Frazier said. "But they see little things and help me out with that. Everything's been nice and slow. I'm seeing a lot of pitches. I rarely do that."

Frazier has been taking so many pitches that his father, Charles, mentioned it.

"He said, 'You look so comfortable up there. I've never seen you take so many pitches in my life. I'm kind of getting frustrated seeing you take the those pitches down the middle.' I said, 'Dad, it's not the pitch I'm looking for.'

"Those Jersey people get a little hasty. They understand now that I'm working on something and it feels pretty good up there."

Here are his FanGraphs plate discipline stats:

Frazier is showing a very slight drop in his overall swing rate this year compared to last year.  That is despite a slight increase in the number of pitches he's seeing in the strike zone (zone % is up 1%).  However, it appears to be due not to taking pitches in the zone (as suggested by the quote).  Rather, Todd is showing an increased tendency to take pitches out of the zone (lower O-Swing%).

This drop in swing percentage also seems to span across all pitch types:

Frazier just loves to swing at offspeed pitches, no?

What does it all mean?

It's hard to pin any one thing to these plate discipline statistics.  The first expectation I would have is that he'd show increased walk rates.  And he's not:

However, he is showing a number of improvements that could be linked to his decreased swinging rates:

• He's shown a big improvement in his strikeout rates, as I discussed in this post.  Todd may be chasing fewer pitches out of the zone, resulting in fewer swinging third strikes.
• He's also showing decreased swinging strike percentages (11% this year after 11.5% last year, 11.8% career).
• He's showing better results when he barrels the bat: his BABIP is up a bit compared to last year (though actually down from his career average of .285), and his home run per fly ball rate is also up (career 13.6%).

Frazier may not be a star, but he's a very nice player to have on a ballclub.  He contributes excellent defense at a demanding defensive position (+11 UZR/150 for his career, very similar DRS numbers), and is an above-average hitter who appears to still be getting better.  He has contributed an average of 3 WAR each of the last two seasons, and is headed for arbitration this offseason for the first time.  Given his tendency for a low batting average, he's likely to be a bargain throughout arbitration, unless he goes crazy with his power numbers.  I'm looking forward to watching him play at the hot corner for years to come.

Should Billy Hamilton swing less?

Embedded in my Rockies series preview at Red Reporter yesterday was this bit on Billy Hamilton.  I thought it was an interesting little digression, even if it's basically amounting to lamenting what a player does not do rather than what they do (a bias I usually try to avoid):

Billy Hamilton returned to the starting lineup Sunday after a long time off, and immediately had an impact. He got on base three times, and scored the first run of the game thanks to an errant (and arguably rushed) throw by Justin Morneau on a bunt single, followed by a Skip Schumaker groundout. This is the first series preview that I've done this year in which his actual wOBA meets or exceeds his projection. There's no question that he's been better since his awful first two weeks. And, according to the measures at FanGraphs, he is already about a third of the way to his projected season WAR. Therefore, the projections, at least, think that what we've seen of Hamilton, in sum, is a good indication of what we'll see from him moving forward.

There was a short but interesting discussion on a recent FanGraphs audio about the Minnesota Twins' apparent new hitting strategy, which basically involves taking a lot of pitches (they rank last in baseball in Swing %). One of the arguments that Dave Cameron made is that the players who stand to benefit most from a more selective approach are hitters like Hamilton. Hamilton is not a guy who gains a lot when he swings the bat, compared to a guy who has a lot of power and can add real value when he places the bat on the ball. Hamilton's offensive value is entirely wrapped up in his ability to get to first base, and little else.

Hamilton's swing rate is actually right about average (45% career vs. 45% MLB average), but that hasn't translated into a lot of extra walks (only 5% walk rate). I think he can be effective when he hits the ball on the ground, but he is not really a ground ball hitter (46% career ground ball rate is about average). Given that he makes good contact (86% career vs. 79% MLB average), however, I'd love to see a Hamilton that adopts a Marco Scutaro-type hitting approach: be patient, take pitches, and only swing when you get your perfect pitch...or when you have to with two strikes. His contact rate should make him an effective two-strike hitter.

Of course, that's easier said than done. Hitters can't just change their approach at the drop of a hat. They are reaction machines that have trained themselves to make split-second decisions in a time frame that doesn't allow a thoughtful, considered approach. One can't discount the argument that a hitter's aggressiveness (or patience) is part of what has made him successful to this point in his career, and trying to become more patient (or more aggressive) could have unintended, negative consequences on other aspects of how a player hits. But that doesn't stop me from dreaming about it!

History of Crosley Field

The +Cincinnati Museum Center ran a nice little note on the history of Crosley Field on their Google Plus page yesterday.  Here it is:

Since baseball season is in full swing, we thought it was high time we shared some good old-fashioned baseball history.

On May 17, 1912, Redland Field – the fifth home of the Cincinnati Reds – was dedicated. The facility was located at the corner of Western Avenue and Findlay Street (as seen below). At the time, it was the largest playing area in the major leagues and the first two-tiered stadium in Cincinnati.

In 1934, it was renamed Crosley Field, after the prominent Powel Crosley Jr. purchased the Cincinnati Reds franchise to ensure the team would remain in Cincinnati. Crosley not only had a natural love for the game, but he also had the image, money and business experience to head a successful major league franchise, especially during an economic depression. Crosley soon became one of the game’s great innovators. Before he owned the team, he had personally broadcast the first Cincinnati baseball game ever heard on radio. After he purchased the franchise, he hosted professional baseball’s first night game in 1935.

On an unrelated note, I really like Google Plus.  It seems like twitter is the central hub for most baseball-related social media.  I do try to post my articles over there, but unfortunately it doesn't seem like it gets the traffic to be worth investing much more time there.

Do fast runners protect hitters behind them?

One of the interesting insights that Joey Votto offered in Eno Sarris's interview at the end of March was the idea that having Billy Hamilton offered lineup protection.  This was a neat insight, and it makes sense: with Hamilton on first base, pitchers are more likely to throw fastballs to the batter to give their catchers a chance to throw them out, and certainly will avoid burying sliders and curveballs in the dirt.  That gives the batter a better shot at getting a good pitch to hit.

It does fly in the face of some past research, however.  In The Book, Tom Tango et al found that hitters actually hit WORSE with speedsters on first base than without.  Presumably, this effect was because they were distracted by the baserunner's antics as much as the pitcher would be.  There's on-the-field precedent for this as well: Joe Morgan famously demanded that runners hitting in front of him not steal bases while he was batting because of this distraction.  

So which is it?  Ben Lindbergh took another look at this yesterday...and found support for both arguments.  Sort of:

• Batters do see more fastballs with speedsters on first than with basecloggers on first (71% vs. 67%).  

• But despite seeing more fastballs, batters hit WORSE with speeders on first than with basecloggers (.273 TAv vs. .281 TAv)

Ben also pointed out that in The Book, they found that older batters were less distracted than younger batters.  So, hitting despite distractions might be something that can vary across hitters, and is something that hitters can learn to do.  Votto might be particularly good at it.  And really, if there's someone who would be good at this, it'd be Votto.

I might also expect, based on where their eyes are looking and their angle from the plate, that this distraction would be largest for righthanded hitters batting against left-handed pitchers.  Maybe if I get a play by play database running this summer with my Sabermetrics class, this might be something to look at!

Cueto's Velo On the Rise

As C. Trent noted in his wrap from last night's game, Johnny Cueto's fastball velocity is on the rise.  Here are his game-by-game fastball velocities over the past two years:

And last start, he actually threw harder as the game went on:

That's crazy.  And very exciting.  Cueto is having an extremely special season right now.

Now, I will say that I have seen some claims that spikes in velocity can precede injury.  The logical argument is unclear to me, but I think(?) the idea is just that extra velocity = extra strain = extra risk.  But the only evidence I've seen for this was Matt Harvey's 2013 season.

In any case, I'm choosing to be excited about this.  Cueto has been beyond fantastic this season, and I'm enjoying every minute of it.

MLB to Podcasters: Stop Talking About Our Sport!

Oh, good grief:

At the request of Major League Baseball Advanced Media, Apple removed several baseball-related podcasts from iTunes on Wednesday. HardballTalk broke the news Wednesday morning when Aaron Gleeman, one of HBT’s lead writers, learned that his Minnesota Twins-related podcast known as “Gleeman and the Gleek” had been taken down by Apple. By midday, the list had grown to include another Twins-related podcast “Talk to Contact,” a Yankees-themed podcast on the site “It’s About The Money, Stupid,” and the Cubs-centered podcast on “Bleacher Nation,” among others. Awful Announcing catalogued the reaction on social media, which was swift, fierce and uniformly negative.

This strikes me as an instance of MLB failing to oversee its legal department.  I appreciate that MLB sent an open letter requesting that the affected podcasts be restored.  But as Wendy Thurm points out in her article (linked), their claim here is pretty much absurd to begin with.

Broadcast Bubbles and the Reds' Upcoming TV Deal

David Lazarus thinks the current Dodgers situation could indicate that we're seeing the first signs of the baseball broadcast bubble bursting, per his LA Times article and conversation with Ben Lindbergh on Effectively Wild.  Here's an excerpt:

The problem for Time Warner is that the company shelled out a reported $8.35 billion for exclusive rights to distribute SportsNet LA. That whopping sum pencils out only if almost all other pay-TV customers in the region can be forced to pay an additional $4 to $5 a month for the channel. For Time Warner to cut the monthly rate or, God forbid, offer the channel a la carte, recouping that multibillion-dollar investment would become much more difficult if not impossible.

The Dodgers' TV deal is what has permitted them to sport the highest payroll in major league baseball this season, easily eclipsing that of the Yankees.  If their deal, in their enormous media market, does not pay off for Time Warner, then it could have ripple effects for the rest of MLB...especially teams that haven't yet gotten in on the broadcast contract bonanza.

Teams like the Reds.  And as I noted earlier this month, the Reds' payroll is set to spike pretty dramatically next season thanks to both escalating long-term contracts and the fact that several of their young core are about to become arbitration eligible for the first time. While Castellini and Jocketty have said they're not counting on a big broadcast deal when making their contract extensions, there's no question that a burst in the baseball broadcast bubble could have dramatic, negative consequences for the Reds if it happens before their current TV deal expires after the 2016 season.

Lazarus's comments on the Effectively Wild podcast were also pretty interesting.  My family is case in point of what he was talking about: we got tired of Dish Network bills in excess of $100 per month, and so we have dropped everything in favor of high speed internet alone, netflix, hulu, and for me, MLB.tv.  The MLB.tv package is basically a la carte product purchasing, and there's little question in my mind that this is going to be the long term solution for a lot of tv consumption.  It may take some time, but consumers won't settle for anything else.

Yasiel Puig's Cuban Defection

Yasiel Puig may have good reason to look
over his shoulder.
Photo credit: Ron Reiring

Recently on BPro's terrific Effectively Wild podcast, Ben (and fill-in for Sam, Jason) interviewed Jesse Katz.  Katz, who is not a sports journalist, recently wrote a feature story in Los Angeles Magazine about Yasiel Puig's journey out of Cuba.  It was an amazing story, full of shady dealings and tough times.  Both the interview and the article are highly recommended.  An excerpt:

Puig’s journey, according to claims made in court documents and detailed in interviews, had been underwritten by a small-time crook in Miami named Raul Pacheco, an air-conditioning repairman and recycler who was on probation for attempted burglary and possession of a fake ID. Pacheco had allegedly agreed to pay the smugglers $250,000 to get Puig out of Cuba; Puig, after signing a contract, would owe 20 percent of his future earnings to Pacheco. They were not the first to employ this scheme, a version of which has catapulted many of baseball’s new Cuban millionaires to American shores. It is usurious and expedient, illicit and tolerated. Even if you are as freakishly gifted as Yasiel Puig, there is no humanitarian boat lift delivering you to Chavez Ravine.

The amazing thing is that the story is not really over.  In the minds of those he dealt with, Puig still might owe 20% of his earnings to some of these characters.

It certainly provides an additional, interesting perspective on Puig's background.  A lot of the non-US players that we celebrate on a nightly basis have gone through all kinds of trials and tribulations that we often don't consider.  MLB's questionable conduct in the Dominican Republic, for example, continues to be underreported (here's a thing I wrote about it back in 2007), but these are issues that all fans really should know about.

Ben Lively's excellent start to the season

Last week John Sickels did a quick profile on Reds prospect Ben Lively:

Cincinnati Reds pitching prospect Ben Lively is making mincemeat of the High-A California League. Last night he threw six shutout innings against Modesto, allowing one hit and one walk, fanning ten. The walk was the first free pass he's given up all year: through 23 innings over four starts, Lively has a 33/1 K/BB ratio. He's allowed eight hits total in those four starts, holding Cal League hitters to a .105 average.

Here's his FanGraphs page:

I'm no prospect expert, but here's what I said about Lively when I profiled Reds pitching prospects earlier this month:

Ben Lively ranks right with him (David Holmberg) on the prospect charts, but as a 2013 college draftee, he has only pitched 4 innings above rookie ball. Still, his performance last season was amazing. If he continues to dominate this year, I'd think that he could be promoted aggressively.

Well, he's certainly acquitting himself well in Bakersfield!  Sickels mentions that he has an unconventional delivery with a fair bit of deception.  I'm keen to see how it plays in higher levels....like AA, which he might be seeing by mid-season at this rate.

Update: Via Doug Gray, Ben Lively had ANOTHER amazing start today:

* Ben Lively threw 6 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts. 

... 

Once again the story of the game was starting pitching as Ben Lively continues to just embarrass California League hitters as he lowered his ERA to 0.31 on the season while maintaining a 40-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

So, that's another 6 innings, 7 K's, no walks. Yowzah!