Chapman abandons change (mostly)

So, less than two weeks ago, I wrote about how Aroldis Chapman's improvement this year can arguably be traced to the debut of his change-up.  Well, as Jeff Sullivan noted, almost coinciding with when I wrote that, Chapman now seems to be moving away from using his change-up.  In fact, he's thrown the pitch in only 1 of the last 5 games, and 2 of the last 8:

The reason appears to be that he has a hard time throwing the change-up for strikes.

The good news was that while he was not throwing it for strikes, he was usually missing down (assuming he was even trying to get it in the zone).  Nevertheless, it does look like the pitch has fallen out of favor.  So much for my last piece on him! :)

I personally hope that he can continue to work it in, even as a show-me pitch.  Hitters can catch up to his fastball if they know that it is coming.  The slider is a fantastic pitch, and I'm sure he can be quite successful as a fastball/slider reliever.  But a third pitch against right-handers, at least, would be one additional thing that hitters need to keep in their minds as they step in to face him.

Update on Latos Velo

Just a quick update.  I wrote last week about Mat Latos's drop in velocity so far this season.  While his most recent start was not particularly inspiring, I was pleased to see that his fastball velocity was up!

He also showed better swinging strike rates (9.5% vs. 7.5% for the season...still below his career average), and better strikeout rates (5k's in 5 IP).  Lots of fly balls, and obviously too many home runs...but if you wear the Rose-colored classes, it's a step in the right direction!

Should we worry about Mat Latos?

Outside of his ERA, Mat Latos's numbers
are concerning.
Photo Credit: SD Dirk

In my series preview today at Red Reporter, I noted that Mat Latos's season numbers are a little bit concerning:

I wonder if we should worry a little bit about Mat Latos?  His fastball velocity is down 2 mph compared to prior years, he's not striking guys out, and he's allowing a lot of fly balls.  About the only thing he is doing well is avoiding the walk.  It could be that he's still not up to full strength after dealing with so many injury troubles earlier in the year.  It's a small sample, so I dunno, but I have my eyebrow raised.

Here's his line at FanGraphs.  Sorry for the size, but I wanted to show the whole table.  Click on it to make it bigger.

Everything comes with small sample size warnings.  His ERA looks good.  But everything else is well off pace.  He's showing a 2.4-mph drop in his fastball velocity thus far.  His strikeout rate is way down, his ground ball rate is down, and his swinging strike rate is way down from his career norms (7% vs. 10%!).  The only positive thus far is his walk rate, which has been very good.

I'm less concerned about the strikeout and walk rates.  Sometimes, I think I've seen pitchers show increases or decreases in both rates over small sample sizes.  That might be about their approach to pitching: maybe guys are trying to "fill up the zone" over a stretch of 5-10 starts, and as a result are getting more contact and avoiding walks.  If the Luck Dragons have been going Latos's way, he might be content to pitch to contact not go for the strikeout.  When the winds change, the might try to miss bats a bit more.

The velocity drop worries me, though.  Here it is graphically:

That's a big drop in fastball velocity.  And it's been consistent in each of his five starts this year.  This is not a matter of small sample sizes (at least not in terms of measurement--I'm not saying it's predictive).

Latos did not have a normal offseason due to his elbow surgery, and missed most of spring training due to the torn meniscus in his knee.  He didn't even have a "normal" rehabilitation due to forearm tightness and the calf issue that flared up in his second-to-last rehab start.  For all of these reasons, it makes sense that he is not at his best this season.  And that means I'm not particularly worried about him long-term.  But in the near-term, I'm a bit concerned about how long it will take for him to get back up to speed--or whether that is possible during the regular season.

The Reds need a strong Mat Latos in the rotation, and I'm not sure that they really have that right now.

Zimmerman's Tommy John Primer

Ulnar Collateral Ligaments
are fragile when you throw
really hard.

The Reds have fortunately managed to largely avoid entanglement in ulnar collateral ligament repair surgery this year, but it is a major topic of interest in baseball because of the recent spike in the surgery that we are seeing.  Jeff Zimmerman penned the first part of an excellent primer on Tommy John Surgery at Hardball Times.  Of note: 20% of pitchers who have the surgery just don't make it back, velocity does NOT increase in the years following the surgery, and pitchers typically struggle their first year back.

The latter is probably well-known.  But the first point is not well appreciated, and the second is an important myth.  A few month ago, on Effectively Wild, Stan Conte, the VP of Medical Services of the Los Angeles Dodgers, was on for an interview about pitcher injuries.  One of the points he made is that the myth of increased velocity resulting from Tommy John surgery has resulted in some ridiculous scenarios.  Among them are stories of fathers requesting the surgery for their completely healthy sons in hopes of helping them to add velocity.  Can you imagine?

Zimmerman's next piece will investigate probable causes of the injuries.  The biggest culprit in conversations I've read and heard are fastball velocities, which continue to rise.  I'm looking forward to seeing the data on that, and whether those claims hold up.

Update:
I received this tweet last night.  It provides two great links to Jon's work that addresses my last paragraph:

@jinazreds I looked at TJ surgeries and pitch velocities at BtBS in two parts: http://t.co/enLjjKZHqG and http://t.co/LDLTlR3rI4
— Jon Roegele (@MLBPlayerAnalys) July 1, 2014

Update #2:
Here's Zimmerman's second part, with an excellent summary of his findings (all of which I agree with):

1. Pitchers are developing their shoulders better. This leads to a pitcher’s elbow giving out before his shoulder.
2. Pitchers are throwing at a higher velocity, which means more stress on the elbow. More stress means more of a chance for a snap or rip.
3. Younger pitchers are putting undo stress on their arms at too early an age, with too many innings and not enough rest time. The pitchers are damaged goods before they make it to the majors.

Cameron: Johnny Cueto's Fastball Unhittable

Dave Cameron pointed out today that a big part of what has made Johnny Cueto so amazing this year is that his four-seam fastball has been nearly unhittable:

I mean, sheesh.

Cueto is known as a sinkerballer, and that's still very much what he is.  His ground-ball percentage still stands at 53%, and he still throws his sinker a healthy portion of the time (22.5%).  But Cueto has been seeing uncanny results with his four-seam fastball, which he is throwing a bit more often this season:

***Note also: Tony Cingrani also appears on this graph of low wOBA allowed.

That increase in his four-seamer frequency seems to part of why he's showing a 1 mph increase in his "fastball" velocity this season, although all of his pitches are seeing small velocity increases:

I tend to expect that outliers as substantial as Cueto is in that first graph are due for a regression.  That shouldn't be a surprise, because Cueto has been so unbelievable this year.  It's pretty rare for a pitcher to be almost twice as good as everyone else on something.

Nevertheless, the Dodgers announcers were talking a lot about Cueto and the deception in his delivery last night.  I think that Cueto's increased velocity, coupled with the deception of how well he hides the ball during his delivery, are a bit part of why he's been able to accomplish what he has this year.  As Cameron states, this is not just a BABIP-inspired oddity.  I can't explain it either, but I am enjoying the ride.

Prospecting the Altoona Curve, Part 2: Pitchers

Continuing my look at the Altoona Curve, I'm turning my attention to pitchers today.

As with the hitters, the projection is the pre-season Oliver projections.  I like to use Oliver for minor leaguers, in particular, because of its emphasis on minor league equivalencies, and because it usually reports more players than anyone else!

Top Prospect: RHP Nick Kingham
Kingham was a 4th-round selection out of high school in 2010.  Now in his age-22 season, the 6'5" Kingham posted the best season of his young career last year with a 2.89 ERA across high-A and AA last year, and with peripherals to match.  This year he hasn't looked quite as strong, at least in terms of his peripheral numbers.  His strikeout rate has been down, and his walk rate has been unimproved from last year.  Entering the season, Tim Williams reported that he'd been adding velocity, while Marc Hulet was talking about him needing to learn to use his height and pitch in a downward angle.  He's obviously the guy that I'm most interested to see pitch...although I don't think the schedule matches up.

Top Performer: RHP Adrian Sampson
Sampson was drafted in the 5th round in 2012 out of community college.  He had a very nice season in low-A that year, but struggled a bit last year at high-A; his strikeouts took a big hit, even as he demonstrated exceptional control.  Perhaps as a result, he was left off all but the deepest Pirates prospect lists.  This year, now pitching in AA, his strikeouts are back up to mostly-respectable rates, and he's continuing to show good ability to avoid the walk.  He is listed as 6'3", 200 lbs, so he has good size.  Beyond that, the best info I've found on him was here: high-80's to low-90's fastball, good curve.  If I'm reading the schedule right, he should be in line to pitch on Saturday when I head to see the Curve.  I'm looking forward to watching this guy.  The Pirates have been aggressive in promoting him, and this year it seems as if it's paying off.

The Other Name: LHP Joely Rodriguez
Calling Rodriguez a "name guy" might be overstating things, but he managed to be ranked right along with Adrian Sampson in the pre-season lists that were deep enough to include him.  Rodriguez's 2014 stat line makes him look like a soft-tossing lefty.  Interestingly enough, despite his low career strikeout rates, Rodriguez actually was featured in a Nathaniel Stoltz profile as a power lefty.  He throws hard for a lefty, sitting in the low-to-mid-90's, and, thanks to the Pirates emphasis on it, is showing a good change-up.  Still, at some point, the stuff needs to play up and result in performance.  While he hasn't been bad, he's been the weakest of the Pirates' trio of 22-year old starters thus far.

The Veteran: LHP Brandon Mann
The top strikeout rate on the team actually belongs to Brandon Mann, who has largely thrown out of the bullpen.  He's also 30 years old, apparently did not play in organized baseball last season, and before that spent two years in Japan.  He last appeared in the affiliated minors in 2010 with the Dodgers after being cut loose by the Tampa Bay Rays, who drafted him as an 18-year old in 2002.  He's not a prospect, and is undoubtedly pretty far down on the depth charts.  But he's left-handed, so you never know, right?  Kudos to him for working his way back into affiliated baseball.

Cingrani to the DL

Tony Cingrani had a rough game yesterday.  He didn't give up a ton of runs in his 4 innings of work, but he threw a lot of pitches and clearly wasn't sharp.  Furthermore, in the 4th inning, his velocity started to really slip.  After that inning was over, I wrote this on the twitter:

Cingrani also sitting 87-89 mph on his fastball... umm.. RT @ctrent: That’s 79 pitches for Cingrani through 4 innings #Reds
— Justin inhisbasement (@jinazreds) May 1, 2014

Here that is graphically:

Big drop, right?

Seconds after my tweet, I started seeing reports that Nick Christiani was warming in the bullpen.  Cingrani was lifted.  It ended up being a pretty bad night for the bullpen, but sending Cingrani out there to pitch again would have been risky...not just because he wasn't throwing well, but because it seems likely that pitchers throwing when they're tired are at risk for injury.

Then, this afternoon, we got word that Cingrani was being placed on the DL:

Cingrani was clearly unhappy with the move. "I don't know why they do a lot of things. I don't agree with it," he said. "But if they don't want me to injure myself, I understand. I think I can keep throwing, but they're exercising caution."

I commend Bryan Price and his staff for acting quickly on this.  They are protecting a young pitcher from himself.  It might well be that Cingrani would be fine in his next start.  But this break will allow him to (hopefully) recover, and to build some arm strength so that he can get back to being himself.  Furthermore, it has the additional benefit of helping to limit his innings.  Cingrani only threw 135 innings last season after throwing 150 the year before.  I would guess that the Reds won't want him throwing more than 180 innings this year (or thereabouts).  If 15 days means three starts, that's potentially around 15-20 innings that Cingrani will log onto his arm.

Kudos to Aaron Harang

Just a small post to recognize the wonderful start of Aaron Harang's 2014 season.  I didn't get to profile him in my Braves/Reds preview because he's not throwing in this series.  But right now, Harang is leading all NL starters in ERA at 0.85.  I thought I'd do a quick retrospective.

When I started this blog in 2006, Harang was the Reds' #1 stud pitcher.  He was joined that season by a surprisingly good Bronson Arroyo, and they anchored the Reds' staff for 2006 and 2007.  We all know what happened in 2008.  But I prefer to remember his run from 2005-2007, when he averaged just under 5 WAR per season.  

When Harang was at his best, he was always a fly ball pitcher.  But he had a good strikeout rate, and an extremely low walk rate, which helped keep the home runs he allowed from hurting him.  While his 3.7ish ERAs don't look particularly impressive now, one has to remember that the scoring environment in 2006 was much different than it is now.  In 2006, the NL average ERA was 4.49.  By 2013, on the other hand, it fell all the way to 3.73.  So, in today's run environment, he would be something much closer to a 3.00 ERA pitcher at his peak.

What's different about Harang's approach this year?  Ben Lindbergh doesn't think he's doing anything differently than he did for Cleveland last year from a scouting basis.  Certainly, his peripherals don't suggest that his 0.85 ERA is sustainable.  But, in his first 5 starts, Harang has seen his strikeout rate, and his swinging strike rate, soar to levels better than even his best years with Cincinnati.  He has also seen his walk rate jump up, and his ground ball rate drop, of course.  Given all of that, it's hard to expect that his end of season numbers will be any better than league average.  

But I'm going to hope he can keep being effective all season.  Harang was a terrific Red, and I will always root for him.

Matt Adams is Beating the Shift

Mike Petriello had a nice article yesterday describing what the Reds observed first-hand when they faced the Cardinals: Matt Adams has been beating the shift.  He's mostly doing this by taking the ball to left field, especially on outside pitches:

But just about no one really bunts against the shift, especially not power hitters like Adams. (So far as I can tell, he has never successfully done so in the regular season, though he has tried in spring training.) Instead, he’s just taken advantage of it in a simpler way. In all of 2013, he had 17 hits to the left side of the field. In 2014, in less than 10 percent of the season, he already has 11.

Interestingly, it seems to be because he's offering more at pitches on the outer half of the plate:

All these minor differences begin to add up. Adams is seeing a higher percentage of pitches on the outside of the plate, he’s swinging at more of them, and he’s making contact with more of those — and overall, he’s got a .425 BABIP across all pitches. So maybe this is small sample size noise, but considering how close he is to matching his 2013 opposite field hit total, maybe there’s some amount of signal to it. Adams probably can’t exert a huge amount of control over where the ball goes — this isn’t billiards — but he can exercise some choice on which balls he chooses to swing at. Understandably, more outside pitches lead to more balls the other way. (And raises questions about whether teams choosing to shift should be more in tune with their pitchers about where their pitches go.)

I tried to visualize this by going to Mike's preferred site, Baseball Savant, and looking at spray charts.  Below, I'm reporting all ground balls and line drives by Adams in 2013 (left) and 2014 (left).  Green squares are singles, purple squares a ground-outs, blue-green triangles are doubles, green triangles are line-outs.

...I dunno.  I think this is a case where I'd rather just have the total event numbers than try to extract it from this.  But if you compare what's happening in left field, I'd say that Adams has roughly half as many left field events as he did in 2013.  And far less than half of the events to right field.  I'm going to have to look around and see if I can find a better source for this info that will compile the numbers better.

In any case, I think the notion is interesting here.  I love that the Reds are going to invoke the shift on batters this year.  But if you're going to do it, you have to be aware of how you're planning to pitch the batter.  If the pitching approach is to pound a hitter outside, then it might not make sense not to do a dramatic shift.  Not a revolutionary idea, but one worth keeping in mind.

.....

Update: I'd forgotten this, but FanGraphs actually provides a Pull/Center/Opposite split.  Here are Matt Adams' career splits:

Direction	AB	H	%BIP	wOBA
To Left	78	32	24%	0.418
To Center	118	39	36%	0.353
To Right	131	55	40%	0.547

And Adams' 2014 performance:

Direction	AB	H	%BIP	wOBA
To Left	19	12	39%	0.643
To Center	9	1	18%	0.099
To Right	21	8	43%	0.434

So, we're seeing Adams hitting many more balls to left field.   But it's worth keeping in mind the sample size here; we're dealing with a total of 50 PA's, here.  The difference between this year's pattern and his career pattern is about 10 balls hit to right field.  That's not irrelevant, but we might not want to declare him to be a radically new hitter based on 10 balls hit to right field.

Also, just for comparison, here's Jay Bruce's career numbers:

Direction	AB	H	%BIP	wOBA
To Left	520	157	23%	0.345
To Center	720	235	32%	0.370
To Right	1012	395	45%	0.508

Bruce looks to be even more of a severe pull hitter than Adams--though Adams was at about these numbers prior to the season.  It's no wonder that pretty much every team plays him to shift.

Homer Bailey's Bizarre Season

Homer Bailey: Down but not out.
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

Homer Bailey is having a rather absurd start to the season.  Check out his line, hot off the presses from FanGraphs:

The top row is his performance from last night's game alone.  It wasn't pretty.  He gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in 5 innings, including four home runs***.  The last two were particularly horrible to watch: the Reds had just come back on a Ryan Ludwick two-run homer to take the lead, and he immediately gave up back-to-back home runs to Starling Marte and Travis Snider.

The bottom row, in gray, are his 2014 totals.  Currently, Bailey has an awful 8.16 ERA.  And a miserable 7.25 FIP.  But he also has a 2.78 xFIP.  Which one of these is not like the other?

Why?  Look at the elements of his line that are the most volatile: BABIP, HR/FB %, and LOB%.  All of these numbers tend to show very little consistent pitcher "skill."  They often vary unpredictably from year to year across a pitcher's career, and as a result we tend to attribute most of the difference from league average for these statistics to "luck."  We're in the extreme small sample size segment of the season, so deviations from league average on these stats should be treated as completely unsustainable.  So, with that in mind...Bailey's Left On Base percentage is pretty typical, but his Batting Average on Balls in Play is an absurd 0.429 (league average is usually around 0.300, Bailey's career BABIP is 0.300).  And his Home Run per Fly Ball rate is even more absurd at 60% (league average is usually ~12%, Bailey's career rate is 11%) .  These are the numbers that experience has taught us to ignore.

Now let's focus on the numbers that are the most stable: K/9, BB/9, and GB%.  These numbers all look really good.  His walk rate is a bit higher than usual (career 2.9 BB/9), but his strikeout rate thus far has been outstanding.  And his ground ball percentage is actually up compared to the rest of his career at a very good 51% (career 44%, 46% last year).  Furthermore, while it's not shown above, his velocity has been just fine (only 1st two starts shown, but yesterday he was sitting 94 mph with his fastballs once again, and topped out at 96.5 mph):

I don't know if I buy that the large swings in BABIP, HR/FB%, and LOB% are really "luck," as in something completely out of control of the pitcher.  If Bailey is missing with his pitches and leaving hanging curveballs (to Marte) or grooving fastballs (to Walker, Sanchez, and Snider), they're going to hit the ball out of the park.  But past work has shown that these trends tend to not be predictive of future performances.  Pitchers either make adjustments to correct those problems...or their luck changes.

In contrast, the numbers that are predictive are quite positive for Bailey's future starts.  He's getting lots of strikeouts, he's getting a good number of ground balls, he's basically walking guys at his normal rate, and his velocity is just fine.  We're in small sample size even for those numbers, but I just don't see anything that would cause me to be particularly concerned about Bailey's next several starts, or his season.

So, let's all take a deep breath...and hope for better things in the future.

*** One thing more bizarre that Bailey's start to the season is last night game.  10 home runs in 6 innings, all in the midst of a downpour that finally(!) led to a rain delay.  I've nothing to say about that game that hasn't been said, but yeesh.

Source: FanGraphs