Reds fare poorly in projections for '06

SG ran a set of Diamond Mind simulations based on three sets of projections (ZIPS, PECOTA, and Diamond Mind) over at the Replacement Level Yankees weblog. Unfortunately, things looked bad for the Reds in all projections.

• Diamond Mind: 6th place, 73-89, 744 runs scored, 820 runs allowed, made playoffs 1% of the time
• PECOTA: 6th place, 74-88, 785 runs scored, 854 runs allowed, made playoffs 2% of the time
• ZIPS: 6th place, 69-93, 751 runs scored, 864 runs allowed, made playoffs 0% of the time. The only other team to never make the playoffs were the Kansas City Royals.

These sorts of things should be taken with a grain of salt, of course, but it's terrifying to think of what we may be in for this year.

One final tidbit from SG's article:

- These do not include the Brandon Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena trade, which looks to be about a one win upgrade for Boston based on Pena's expected role, and a 2-3 win upgrade for Cincinnati on a smaller set of 100 that I ran upon hearing about the trade. Boston scored about 15 more runs with Pena but gave up 5 more. Cincinnati gave up about 25 fewer runs per season, so I guess Brandon was a good pickup for them after all.

Adding 2-3 wins is only good enough to move us into a tie for 5th place in one of the three simulations, unless, of course, those wins come against the projected 5th place team (either PIT or HOU).

Buckle up boys and girls, it could be a bumpy ride.
-JinAZ
...I just realized I have now linked to a Yankees fan site blog. So if you folks don't stop back, I'll completely understand.

Reds pick up David Ross

Krivsky has the tradin' bug, and something tells me he's not done yet. From Marc:

SARASOTA -- The Reds have acquired catcher David Ross from the Padres in exchange for minor league pitcher Bobby Basham.

Right-hander Jason Standridge was designated for assignment to make room for Ross on the 40-man roster.

Ross has been tearing it up this spring for San Diego, hitting .529 (9-for-17) with three homers. But with Mike Piazza and Doug Mirabelli there, not much playing time was in the offing for Ross. Of course, one could say the same thing here. We'll see what Wayne has to say.

Here are some relevant stats on 29-year old David Ross:

Year	Team	AB	H	HR	BB	SO	OBP	SLG	OPS	EQA
2003	LAN	124	32	10	13	42	0.336	0.556	0.892	0.298
2004	LAN	165	28	5	15	62	0.253	0.291	0.544	0.202
2005	PIT/SDN	125	30	3	6	28	0.279	0.392	0.671	0.230

PECOTA: Breakout 37%, Improve 56%, Collapse 25%, Attrition 48%

The guy clearly has some power, as evidenced by his impressive part-time work in '03 with the Dodgers. He also had an impressive campaign in AAA-Las Vegas, hitting 0.297/0.384/0.519/0.903 in 293 AB's in '02. But hasn't done squat since then, even when he's been down in the minors. Apparently he's "tearing it up" in spring training, but one should take that with a grain of salt. Based on his PECOTA (which is based on comparable players over history), he does have a pretty high chance (36%) to break out this season. But he also has a good chance to collapse completely, and the 56% improve rating indicates that he'll probably just keep "producing" at the same level.

Defensively, hew as listed as +7 in 31 games in '05 in Baseball Prospectus's book, though I'm unclear if that accounts for his throwing arm or not. His career caught stealing percentage is 38%, which is not shabby, and he was up at 60% last year (again, limited playing time). BP's book states that he "has a flashy arm, and can call a major league game." All in all, he looks to me like a fairly protyptical backup catcher.

But the Reds' had the best offensive catcher duo in the league last season in LaRue and Valentin. So what's up with this trade? The Reds seem very unlikely to carry 3 catchers with their miserable pitching staff, so I can only imagine that we're going to see another trade, probably involving one of our catching pair. My preference would to be trade Valentin, as he can't hit lefthanders and I'm expecting a regression this year vs. right-handers as teams pitch him more carefully. But the Latin Love Machine also probably has far less trade value than LaRue, and I can deal with limited offensive capability at catcher if we can trade LaRue + a pitcher (Milton to a fly-ball friendly park?) and get an improved starter in return.

As for Bobby Basham, he was a 26-year old, former prospect AA pitcher with a history of arm problems. BP rated his STUFF (an indicator of future potential in the big leagues) as -4, while a +10 is appropriate for a regular big-league starter. I don't think we lost much here. Not sure we gained much either. -j

Reflections on the first WBC

In what was an excellent game, far closer than the final 10-5 score indicates, Japan defeated a very strong Cuban team in the final game of the first World Baseball Classic.

The Classic was a huge success, far greater than I'd hoped it would be. It faced a number of difficult obstacles, from the conflicts among owners and players over playing in the WBC, to the obvious rustiness of many major leaguers, to the ultimate competition for TV ratings with the NCAA tournament in the United States. The final game displayed only two major leaguers, although many of those players would make very welcome additions to the Cincinnati Reds' pitching staff. And yet, through it all, the tension was great in almost every game and the crowds were phenomenal. Japan's victory didn't quite feel as good as a World Series Championship to me, but it was probably on par with winning the first round of the playoffs. Not bad for a tournament without any history.

I can only imagine how the global anticipation will build at the next Classic in 2009. Think of all the great rematches we can look forward to: Korea/Japan, the Dominican Republic/Cuba, Puerto Rico/Cuba, Puerto Rico/Dominican, Venezuela/Dominican, USA/Mexico, and USA/Canada. I have little doubt that the competition is going to be phenomenal, that MLB players will indeed fight for opportunities to play, and that the crowds will be even more intense than this year. I'd be shocked if I'll be able to walk up to Chase Field and buy tickets on the day of the game again.

Nevertheless, I would hope that the organizers would consider a few changes to the tournament. Here are a few ideas (most are not original):

• Hold the Classic at a different time. I know this is one of the most common complaints, but when you hold it in the spring, many major leaguers are demonstrably rusty, and "you force" managers (in their minds, at least) of the WBC teams to treat the tournament as a virtual spring training--making sure everyone gets their work in, etc. Two alternatives:
• July and August are said to be Baseball's biggest draw months, but June seems like a good time. Players will be in a good groove, all parks in the majors would be eligible for hosting games, etc. The main problem with this is that it would require either an early start and/or a late end date on the season, and baseball season often pushes the limits of when one can play the game in northern cities as it is.
• November, however, is probably the best time to hold the tourney. I've heard Selig's arguments that many players are tired and/or beat up, but in fact many players will have had at least a few weeks off to recover between the end of the MLB season and the start of the tournament. It's only those players on the World Series' teams that will have minimal rest, and even then you could take a week off. After the success of this year's tournament, I have little doubt that you could convince players to skip out on some of their vacation to come and participate.
  
• Adjust the tournament format. The tiebreakers were used to determine a winner in 33% (2 of 6) of the pools this year. That's waaay too often. I'd prefer to see a double elimination tournament similar to what is used in the NCAA College Baseball World Series. That way, teams can play to win games, not just worry about some tiebreaker rule.
• If we must adhere to the round-robin format and keep the tiebreakers, the first tiebreaker (after head to head record) should be the difference between runs scored and runs allowed -- the best predictor of win/loss records. Why focus only on one aspect of baseball when one can easily focus on the overall difference in scores. It would allow teams that excelled in either offense or defense to compete effectively in the tournament.
  
• Make sure that the ESPN broadcasters, not to mention the fans, have all the materials they could possibly need to enjoy the games. While they were much better prepared for the Cuban games, ESPN's broadcasters had almost no statistics for the Asian players, much less interesting tidbits about them during round one. And the WBC website wasn't any help either. I actually had to reconstruct my own stats sheet of Japanese League player stats for team Japan. Come on people! This should be easily accessible by everyone!
  
• Require that ESPN (or whoever secures the rights) broadcasts all games live and in their entirety. I had to avoid all news about this tournament most days because I ended up watching a lot of the games via Tivo that were unnecessarily broadcast at midnight or later. And much to my horror, the creepy late-night espn guy would routinely appear on screen and say "due to time constraints, we now skip ahead in the action." Or, worse yet, "due to time constraints, we'll skip ahead in the action after these messages." And don't even get me started about how ESPN overrode the broadcast of the first half-hour of the final game today because of an NIT basketball game that went into double overtime. I'd be absolutely furious if I were Major League Baseball.

If baseball can address all of these issues, I think we've got ourselves an unbelievably good tournament to look forward to for a long time to come. But even if they just hold the same exact tournament next time as they did this year, it's still going to be a great time in '09. -j

Baseball Musings: Crunch Time for Soriano

It's the middle of the WBC final game, but I saw this on the ESPN ticker and couldn't help but comment on it (via David Pinto's Baseball Musings):

The Nationals are off Tuesday, then travel to play the St. Louis Cardinals in Jupiter on Wednesday. If Soriano refuses to play in that game and again at home against the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, the Nationals will take action.

"We told him if we get to Thursday, and he refuses to play left field, we told him at that point we will request that the commissioner's office place him on the disqualified list, at that time - no pay, no service time," Bowden said.

"If he refuses to play and goes home, and the commissioner's office accepts our request to place him on the disqualified list, then at that point, if he were to sit out this year, he would not be a free agent, he would stay our property because his service time would stay the same."

How absurd. I'm sorry, but if you're in the employ of a major league team you play the position you are asked to play. Sure, you can voice your displeasure to your manager and your general manager...heck you can even complain to the media, though I think that's bad form. But you do what you're told. Ballplayers are paid a lot of money and are given a whole host of other privileges. In return, you're expected to show up, play hard every day, and do what you're told.

And I have to say, it's also another example in a long line of cases that demonstrate that Jim Bowden is a terrible person to have in the front office. He occasionally comes up with a good move, but his ability to interact with the players and staff is miserable. A true leader of an organization would have been able to solve this problem behind closed doors, not in this apparent media stunt that we're seeing right now. -j

Reds acquire Arroyo

From Marc:

SARASOTA -- The Reds have acquired Bronson Arroyo and cash from the Red Sox in exchange for Wily Mo Pena.

I'll have more shortly.

...Arroyo is 29, broke in with the Pirates, and has now been a regular starter in Boston for the past two years. Relevant stats:

Year	IP	ERA	FIP	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2004	178.7	4.03	4.06	0.286	7.15	2.37	0.86
2005	205.3	4.51	4.48	0.278	4.38	2.37	0.96

Last year showed a big drop-off in his strikeout rates -- the second lowest rate of his career (major or minor leagues), the worst being his '01 season with the pirates (3.96). Typically, he has been up in the 6-7 k/9 range, so we can only hope he will return to that level this year. His walk rates have consistently been below league average, and his HR/9 rates are right about league average. Coming from Boston, I think we can expect roughly similar numbers this year. Perhaps fewer hits and a few more home runs allowed.

There had been rumors, at least over at RedsZone, that Matt Clement might also have been available. Needless to say, I'd much prefer to have had Clement, but this trade does help us. Arroyo fits in ahead of Claussen as the #2 starter on the team...more a condemnation of our rotation than an accolade of Arroyo, as I think of him as a prototypical #4 starter. Still, he's better than what we had, and is young enough to help us for a few years (not sure about his contract status).

I'd put the Reds' rotation now as Harang, Arroyo, Claussen, Williams, Milton. Paul Wilson will have to get lucky to get in the rotation when he returns from injury (either someone will have to explode or get hurt), but I think he could be a valuable guy in the bullpen.

For fun, here is baseball-reference's list of similar players through age 28:

1. Mike Harkey (978)
2. Kevin Foster (975)
3. Chris Codiroli (974)
4. Rodrigo Lopez (974)
5. Sean Bergman (972)
6. Art Ditmar (970)
7. Ted Lilly (969)
8. Brett Tomko (968)
9. Chad Ogea (967)
10. Scott Sanders (967)

Not exactly a star-studded cast, though there are a few guys in there who have had a good career (Ted Lilly perhaps foremost on that list).

I'll miss Wily Mo (wily mo wily mo), and I do hope he'll go on to become a super star. But he's basically an all-power, no-OBP guy; as many have said, he could be the next Sammy Sosa, or he could be the next Russell Branyon. And while he is inexpensive at this point in his career, he clearly had some trade value and hurts us less than we would have been hurt losing either Kearns or Dunn. Through age 23, here are the most similar hitters to Pena. Kind of a scary list:

1. Jesse Barfield (976)
2. Rocky Colavito (955)
3. Pete Incaviglia (949)
4. Bobby Bonds (947)
5. Dave Kingman (946)
6. Willie Montanez (946)
7. Billy Conigliaro (944)
8. Willie Horton (943)
9. Harmon Killebrew (941) *
10. Roger Maris (939)

-j
Update: Apparently this move puts Dunn back in left field this year. He's a thoroughly average defender (despite his negative reputation), so it should work out well for us. Hatteberg is slated as our 1B. I have to admit that I'd probably rather see Dunn at 1B a bit more often, with Denorfia and Freel getting starts in the outfield. Freel's said to be a very good outfielder with good range, so I'd definitely like to see him out there a bit more often. Hatteberg seems to me to be another Aurilia...maybe more OBA (though not the last few years), less SLG.

It's Japan!

I'm probably the last person in the world who is following this tournament to know, but Japan has defeated Korea in what was a thrilling game to watch. It was made all the more enjoyable by the quick pace of the Asian pitchers--the game went 3 hrs, 46 minutes on my Tivo, despite a 45-minute rain delay! Compare that to the 3 hr, 52 minute Cuba/DR game.

It was an excellent pitching duel until the 7th, when Japan exploded to score 5 runs, 4 of which were courtesy of the infamous Arizonan meltdown, Byung-Hyun Kim. While the early innings (as well as the Cuba/DR game) featured winds blowing in from centerfield that absolutely deadened any ball hit out there, the rains came in the 7th, and with it came Japan's bats. The big hit that got it started was Kosuke Fukudome's pinch-hit home run. Fukudome really should be the starting centerfielder for Japan, given his extraordinary season last year (0.328/0.430/0.590), but they sat him in favor of the decent Norichika Aoki (0.344/0.387/0.417), who Japan's manager felt was a better fit in the leadoff spot.

Korea couldn't get anything together offensively, and their bullpen fell apart, but their starting pitcher, Jae-Wong Seo, was brilliant. I was frankly shocked to see him removed in the 6th inning, as the guy had been dominant and had only thrown 56 pitches. It was a shame to see his effort go to waste--I'll be interested to see how he does in a full year with the Dodgers.

The last Reds player exited the tournament with Korea's elimination: Jung Bong, who came in to face a single left-handed batter, finished the tournament with an 0.00 ERA in limited appearances. While he didn't get much playing time, I hope he is able to take this success with him and get back on track this year in the Reds' minor league system. It would be nice to see some good eventually come from the Chris Reitsma trade, especially after Bubba Nelson was released.

I'm excited about tomorrow night's game. I'll be rooting for the Japanese players to finally take out Cuba. Japan has really earned this trip, but I can't say the same for Cuba, who have gotten pretty lucky in this tournament--particularly in the semifinal game. And I have to say, there's just something about the Cuban team I just don't like. Might just be their red pants. So go Japan.

And in case Mr. Oh is reading this, here's my recommended lineup given your favorite group set of starters, assuming Iwamura is fit to play (numbers are from the Japanese league, with the exception of Suzuki):

1. CF Fukudome (0.328/0.430/0.590)
2. DH Matsunaka (0.315/0.412/0.663)
3. RF Suzuki (0.303/0.349/0.436)
4. LF Tamura (0.304/0.369/0.578)
5. 3B Iwamura (0.319/0.388/0.555)
6. 1B Ogasawara (0.282/0.362/0.558)
7. 2B Nishioka (0.268/0.320/0.394)
8. SS Kawasaki (0.271/0.326/0.346)
9. C Satozaki (0.303/0.361/0.481)

With Kazuhiro Wada (0.322/0.397/0.573) and Takahiro Arai (0.305/0.353/0.603) waiting in the wings for key pinch hit opportunities for the #6-9 hitters late in the game. -j

Cuba to the final

A friend of mine got married this afternoon, so I had to wait to watch the semifinals until the evening. Tonight I watched the 3 hr, 53 minute Cuba/DR game. It was a good game in some ways, but was also an extremely frustrating game to watch. The DR's only run was unearned, and Cuba's big inning was more a matter of luck than anything else; infield hit after infield hit. Still, it was great to see a game with such real emotion this time of year. Biggest moment in the game? For me, it was Adrian Beltre's shot to left field in the 8th. When it left his bat I would have sworn it was a few rows back in the left field bleachers, and that the DR had just taken the lead. Instead, it ended up a routine fly ball. I guess that's the Petco effect...

I'm kind of reeling after this loss, far more so than I was for the USA elimination game vs. Mexico. I think the reason is that the DR played this game the right way. There were probably two questionable managerial decisions: 1) sending the runners on the 3-2 pitch with Willy Taveras hitting the 5th, and 2) pulling Perez in the 7th inning when the Cubans could barely hit anything he was throwing at them (terrible luck in that inning). Maybe I'd add not pitching Bartolo Colon up to the 95-pitch limit, given how dominant he was. But still, I don't feel cheated. They played to win, and ended up short.

It was good to see Wily Mo Pena get in some good swings. In the end, he went 1 for 4, reached on an error, stole a base, and got caught stealing on the strike 'em out, throw 'em out play in the 5th (see #1 above). He also made a few routine plays in the outfield. He did strike out once (6-pitch at-bat), but overall seemed like he was seeing the ball well. I hope he has a big year for us.

A note on Cuba: I keep score on a decent number of games each year. Certainly almost any game I see in person, but also a good number of games on TV. Aside from helping me keep in a game and remember who did what earlier in the game, one of the things I love about doing this is that I can, in a very personal way, go back and and relive ballgames from my past. Today, as I was watching the Cuba/DR game, I realized I still have my scorecard from the Baltimore/Cuba exhibition game in Cuba on March 28th, 1999. A few quick notes, having spent a few minutes staring at that scorecard:

• It was a really good game, going 11 innings before the Orioles pulled out a 3-2 victory. Will Clark hit a one-out double, advanced on an Albert Belle groundout to third, and then scored (after BJ Surhoff walked) on a Harold Baines single.
  
• Two players (that I recognize, at least) on the current Cuban national team appeared in that game: Pestano, the pesky catcher on the current team, came in during the 8th inning after the original catcher (Manrique) was pinch hit for in the 7th. He went 0-2 with two groundouts once in the game. The other was the pitcher Lazo--the same guy who shut down the DR in the final half of today's game--who gave up that losing run in the 11th!
• Mike Bordick played in place of Cal Ripken. I don't recall if there was a reason, though it was an exhibition game after all. (I am glad that I did get to see Cal playing at an August 2001 game in Kansas City, which I attended with my father while driving across country. He tipped his hat to a standing ovation. Great moment).
• The other two Baltimore runs scored on a Charles Johnson Home Run in the 2nd inning.

I'll watch the Korea/Japan game tomorrow, which means I need to starve myself of any and all baseball news until then to avoid spoilers. In the meantime, I desperately need to go to bed, as it's insane late here. -j