Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 4 May

This is my (usually) weekly look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

Note: I'm technically still on break, but I needed a "break" tonight and decided to run these reports...

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
STL	20	12	0.625	0.0	151	4.72	121	3.79	19	0.538	101
CHN	18	13	0.581	1.5	183	5.92	133	4.29	20	0.550	94
MIL	16	15	0.516	3.5	141	4.54	150	4.85	15	0.565	84
HOU	16	16	0.500	4.0	152	4.75	144	4.50	17	0.569	81
PIT	12	19	0.387	7.5	153	4.92	183	5.90	13	0.595	63
CIN	12	20	0.375	8.0	131	4.08	162	5.07	13	0.600	61

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since my last check-in, the Reds have gone a glorious 4-9. Not exactly the rebound I was hoping for...Pythagoras thinks they should have won one game more than they actually have, but that's little comfort...The offense continues to be anemic--the worst in the division by far to date--but the defense has fallen to second from the bottom behind only the struggling Pirates.....Houston has made a nice surge, going 9-4 to secure a 0.500 record.....Will someone please contact St. Louis and let them know that their pitching staff can't possibly be as good as it has been?

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Encarnacion	Edwin	126	13%	13%	11%	0.271	0.275	0.373	0.532	0.257	0.905	0.893	20.9	6.96	10.6
Bako	Paul	86	10%	21%	28%	0.375	0.312	0.384	0.532	0.220	0.916	0.866	14.1	6.99	7.2
Phillips	Brandon	131	6%	19%	19%	0.312	0.279	0.321	0.492	0.213	0.813	0.782	18.1	5.35	6.5
Dunn	Adam	120	20%	20%	17%	0.250	0.221	0.375	0.389	0.168	0.764	0.885	15.2	5.33	5.4
Votto	Joey D	92	8%	20%	25%	0.333	0.294	0.348	0.506	0.212	0.854	0.863	13.1	5.73	5.2
Keppinger	Jeff S	136	7%	4%	18%	0.299	0.298	0.343	0.403	0.105	0.746	0.757	15.3	4.45	3.5
Freel	Ryan	66	6%	15%	22%	0.385	0.328	0.364	0.393	0.065	0.757	0.660	7.8	4.86	2.3
Patterson	Corey	100	8%	7%	16%	0.175	0.200	0.263	0.433	0.233	0.696	0.832	11.6	4.10	1.9
Hairston	Jerry	26	4%	4%	35%	0.348	0.333	0.360	0.417	0.084	0.777	0.775	3.4	5.31	1.2
Griffey Jr.	Ken	129	10%	16%	12%	0.242	0.228	0.310	0.377	0.149	0.687	0.752	12.3	3.63	0.6
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.1
Ross	Dave	13	8%	38%	4%	0.286	0.167	0.231	0.250	0.083	0.481	0.581	0.6	1.59	-0.7
Valentin	Javier	31	6%	19%	13%	0.261	0.207	0.258	0.241	0.034	0.499	0.565	1.7	1.89	-1.4
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0
Hatteberg	Scott	45	16%	9%	21%	0.147	0.135	0.267	0.189	0.054	0.456	0.766	1.8	1.46	-2.5

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' LWTS total 138 runs, which is 7 shy of their actual park-adjusted total.....Edwin's outstanding offensive surge continues, and he's now clearly been the most valuable hitter on the team over the first month+.....Continued fun for Mr. Bako--and now PrOPS is starting to like him now that he's hitting for more power...I'm not a believer yet, but it's a nice present in an otherwise rough season.....Nice rebound also from Brandon Phillips.....Dunn's strikeouts are down, but I liked the version of him that had power better.....Votto's walk rates are really starting to rebound to more normal levels.....Keppinger's season-to-date is now a bit closer to what I expected from him, but I've always been a bit pessimistic about him.....Large mismatches (in a hopeful way) between PrOPS and OPS for Corey Patterson and Scott Hatteberg.....but Griffey sure has struggled lately, eh?


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Bako	Paul	C	7.2	3.4	1.4	11.9
Votto	Joey D	1B	5.2	2.6	-1.2	6.6
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	10.6	-4.2	0.2	6.6
Phillips	Brandon	2B	6.5	-0.8	0.2	5.8
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	3.5	-0.3	0.9	4.1
Patterson	Corey	CF	1.9	0.8	0.5	3.1
Dunn	Adam	LF	5.4	-1.3	-1.0	3.1
Freel	Ryan	CF	2.3	0.3	0.1	2.6
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.1	0.2	0.0	0.0
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	1.5	0.1	-0.3
Ross	Dave	C	-0.7	-0.5	0.2	-1.0
Hairston	Jerry	RF	1.2	-2.3	0.0	-1.1
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-2.5	1.2	-0.5	-1.8
Valentin	Javier	C	-1.4	-1.1	0.3	-2.1
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	0.6	-3.6	-1.0	-4.0

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Note: the initial version of this post, and unfortunately all previous posts this year, had fielding estimates that were twice as large as they should have been. Thanks to Joel for recognizing that there was a problem. That's what happens when you've got

The Reds' overall fielding numbers are at -4 runs vs. average.....Bako's been the most valuable player on the team thus far, hands down: great defense from a premium position, and we've already talked about his offense.....Votto's defense continues to score well, especially with RZR thanks to 14 plays out of zone thus far--six more than the last check-in.....The importance of defense: Patterson still rates as the 6th-most valuable position player (tied with Dunn) on the team despite his 0.696 OPS, because he's at least decent in CF...Edwin Encarnacion's been the Reds' best hitter, but his value is cut by almost 40% due to his poor fielding (I'm warming to the idea of a position change, just don't know where to)...and Griffey rates as a sub-replacement level player thus far because of his defense and almost complete lack of offense...ouch.


Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	35.3	10.7	4.6	0.3	4%	52%	0.280	1.27	2.58	0.551	9.6	2.44	13.7	11.3
Harang	Aaron	48.3	7.6	2.0	0.9	10%	38%	0.267	2.98	3.31	0.672	18.6	3.46	13.3	11.5
Cueto	Johnny	35.0	8.5	1.5	1.5	15%	38%	0.268	5.40	3.77	0.728	16.0	4.12	7.1	6.6
Cordero	Francisco	12.0	9.0	6.0	0.0	0%	40%	0.233	2.25	3.09	0.552	3.6	2.69	4.8	2.8
Affeldt	Jeremy	13.0	11.8	4.8	0.7	16%	60%	0.290	3.46	3.01	0.623	4.8	3.35	2.3	2.1
Lincoln	Mike	13.7	5.9	1.3	0.7	9%	55%	0.311	3.95	3.09	0.710	5.7	3.74	1.9	2.1
Mercker	Kent	11.7	4.6	5.4	0.8	7%	35%	0.297	3.86	4.88	0.792	6.4	4.96	0.0	-0.5
Bray	Bill P	4.0	9.0	6.8	0.0	0%	43%	0.429	0.00	3.34	0.818	3.1	6.98	-0.9	0.5
Burton	Jared	14.7	12.9	3.1	1.8	17%	45%	0.351	4.30	3.69	0.820	9.3	5.68	-1.2	1.3
Weathers	David	7.3	1.2	9.9	0.0	0%	29%	0.300	4.91	6.11	0.817	5.9	7.23	-1.8	-1.3
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	5.95	0.879	10.4	6.14	-2.0	-2.5
Belisle	Matt	14.3	4.4	1.3	1.3	13%	49%	0.390	6.91	4.20	0.983	13.0	8.21	-3.6	2.0
Fogg	Josh	22.3	6.9	3.2	2.0	16%	38%	0.320	9.27	5.32	0.923	17.7	7.14	-5.4	-2.0
Arroyo	Bronson	32.3	8.1	3.6	2.2	20%	35%	0.378	8.63	5.46	1.025	31.2	8.71	-9.9	0.0

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Volquez continues to be awesome, though it's going to be tough to maintain a 10.7 k/9 and a 0.3 HR/9 all season, even with his stuff...which means that 4.6 bb/9 has got to come down if he's going to continue to have success.....Harang's a freaking machine.....Cueto's FIP continues to look pretty darn good, despite the steady uptick in his ERA of late.....Cordero, Affeldt, and Lincoln lead the pen, with a nod to Burton despite the high home run rate...Lincoln's strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction though (7.2 k/9 two weeks ago).....Belisle's shown excellent control, but not much else...still, an improvement over Fogg.....I honestly have no idea what the hell to make of Arroyo at this point, so I'm choosing to ignore him!

The Reds' Base Runs across pitchers totals 155 runs, which is 7 fewer than they've actually given up. If we use this total, along with the estimated the Reds' LWTS-estimated 138 runs scored, that gives us an estimated winning percentage of 0.442, and an expected record of 14-18. Better, but still not good. Bleh. It hasn't quite been the team I'd hoped for. But at some point, the offense is likely to pick up at least a little bit, right? I mean, they're not an awesome offensive team by any stretch, but surely they're not THIS bad, are they?

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the statistics used above. ZR data came from ESPN.com.