State Farm Call Your Shot promotion

In case you're still saddened to learn that you can't win the Toyota Tundra at GABP via a long fly this season, here's another chance:

State Farm Call Your Shot Contest
The grand prize winner will also get the chance to pick a spot to which two of the Home Run Derby players must compete to try to hit a ball. If the first player hits the ball to the called spot, the promotion ends. If either player succeeds, the fan receives a 2008 Chevrolet Tahoe hybrid vehicle and a 2009 season-ticket package for any team.

You can get some pretty decent swag too, even if your players don't hit your "spot":

* All-expense paid trip for four to the All-Star Game and State Farm Home Run Derby
* First class hotel accommodations in New York
* Tickets to a Broadway show
* $1,000 MasterCard gift card

Click here to enter.

No idea how big the "spot" will be, but if you've got a left-hander coming up, I know the general location I'd mark off (courtsey of hittrackeronline.com):

Total Value - YTD leaders

If you believe in voting for your all stars based on the first 2.5 months of performance, then here's a list for you. It's the current top-ranking players at each position, based on my total value rankings, the methodology for which is described here in detail. Briefly, though:

RAR refers to Runs Above Replacement, an offense-only assessment of value similar to VORP without position adjustments. It is based on linear weights.

FLD refers to +-fielding runs, and is calculated by translating Zone Rating (from STATS Inc) and Revised Zone Rating (from Baseball Info Solutions) into +-runs statistics, and then taking the average of those two fielding estimates. Read it as runs saved vs. an average defender at the same position.

TV is Total Value, a measure of total value (in runs) above a replacement player. It is RAR + fielding + a position adjustment (not shown) to put all positions on the same level. Note that I am imposing a -20 runs/700 PA floor on [fielding+position adjustment], because no one should be less valuable (in terms of intrinsic value, not impact on a team, of course) on the field on a per-pa basis than a DH.

Click here to access YTD total value estimates for all MLB players. Data are through June 15th. I'll post updates periodically.

Catchers
NL
Brian McCann (ATL): 23 RAR, +3 FLD, 29 TV
Geovany Soto (CHN): 19 RAR, +1 FLD, 24 TV

AL
Joe Mauer (MIN): 17 RAR, +3 FLD, 23 TV
Dioner Navarro (TB): 9 RAR, +3 FLD, 15 TV

First Basemen
NL
Lance Berkman (HOU): 46 RAR, +9 FLD, 51 TV
Albert Pujols (STL): 39 RAR, +9 FLD, 45 TV

AL
Kevin Youkilis (BOS): 22 RAR, +3 FLD, 22 TV
Casey Kotchman (LAA): 13 RAR, +8 FLD, 17 TV

Second Basemen
NL
Chase Utley (PHI): 36 RAR, +7 FLD, 43 TV
Dan Uggla (FLA): 29 RAR, +1 FLD, 30 TV

AL
Mark Ellis (OAK): 11 RAR, +11 FLD, 22 TV
Brian Roberts (BAL): 22 RAR, -1 FLD, 21 TV

Third Basemen
NL
Chipper Jones (ATL): 43 RAR, +11 FLD, 54 TV - NL MVP thus far, by my numbers
Troy Glaus (STL): 15 RAR, +8 FLD, 23 TV

AL
Alex Rodriguez (NYY): 26 RAR, +4 FLD, 30 TV (in 214 PA's!)
Scott Rolen (TOR): 11 RAR, +13 FLD, 24 TV

Shortstops
NL
Hanley Ramirez (FLA): 26 RAR, -0 FLD, 28 TV
Rafael Furcal (LAN): 22 RAR, +1 FLD, 23 TV

AL
Orlando Cabrera (CHA): 1 RAR, +8 FLD, 11 TV - What's up with AL shortstops?
Michael Young (TEX): 12 RAR, -5 FLD, 9 TV

Left Field
NL
Pat Burrell (PHI): 31 RAR, +4 FLD, 33 TV
Jason Bay (PIT): 29 RAR, -1 FLD, 26 TV

AL
Johnny Damon (NYY): 26 RAR, +2 FLD, 27 TV
Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS): 18 RAR, -1 FLD, 17 TV

Center Field
NL
Carlos Beltran (NYN): 18 RAR, +7 FLD, 27 TV
Nate McLouth (PIT): 30 RAR, -12 FLD, 21 TV

AL
Grady Sizemore (CLE): 31 RAR, +3 FLD, 35 TV - AL MVP thus far, by my numbers. Leadoff PA's help.
B.J. Upton (TB): 23 RAR, +2 FLD, 26 TV

Right Field
NL
Brian Giles (SDN): 25 RAR, +12 FLD, 34 TV
Ryan Ludwick (STL): 28 RAR, -6 FLD, 22 TV

AL
J.D. Drew (BOS): 25 RAR, +3 FLD, 25 TV
Nick Markakis (BAL): 21 RAR, +1 FLD, 20 TV

DH (defined here as the top remaining unselected hitters):
NL
Adrian Gonzalez (SDN): 26 RAR, +3 FLD, 26 TV
Aramis Ramirez (CHN): 23 RAR, -4 FLD, 20 TV

AL
Milton Bradley (TEX): 34 RAR, -5 FLD, 26 TV
Josh Hamilton (TEX): 27 RAR, -4 FLD, 23 TV


Most Valuable Position Players Overall
1. Chipper Jones (ATL): 54 TV
2. Lance Berkman (HOU): 51 TV
3. Albert Pujols (STL): 45 TV
4. Chase Utley (PHI): 43 TV
5. Grady Sizemore (CLE): 35 TV
6. Brian Giles (SDN): 34 TV
7. Pat Burrell (PHI): 33 TV
8. Dan Uggla (FLA): 30 TV
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY): 30 TV (in 214 PA's!)
10. Brian McCann (ATL): 29 TV

I find it pretty interesting how overwhelmingly the NL players are leading in total value. Part of that is that is probably a methods problem: even though I use different replacement levels for the two leagues, I'm using the same MLB average runs per game for both leagues. Right now, though, AL hitters are hitting more poorly than NL hitters. But even that difference can't be worth more than a couple of runs at this point in the season.

On to the pitchers!

NL Starters (I'm using FIP Runs to try to get around variation in defense and luck)
1. Brandon Webb (ARI): 29 RAR
2. Tim Lincecum (SFN): 27 RAR
3. Edinson Volquez (CIN): 25 RAR
4. Cole Hamels (PHI): 21 RAR
5. Dan Haren (ARI): 21 RAR
6. Aaron Harang (CIN): 20 RAR

NL Relievers
1. Kerry Wood (CHN): 17 RAR
2. Brad Lidge (PHI): 16 RAR
3. Jon Rauch (WAS): 13 RAR
4. Takashi Saito (LAN): 12 RAR

AL Starters
1. Roy Holliday (TOR): 32 RAR
2. Cliff Lee (CLE): 29 RAR
3. Jose Contreras (CHA): 25 RAR
4. Javier Vazquez (CHA): 24 RAR
5. C. C. Sabathia (CLE): 23 RAR
6. Ervin Santana (LAA): 23 RAR

AL Relievers
1. Mariano Rivera (NYY): 16 RAR
2. Jonathan Papelbon (BOS): 14 RAR
3. Ramon Ramirez (KC): 10 RAR
4. Bobby Jenks (CHA): 9 RAR

AL pitching looks stronger than NL pitching by these measures, though it's not overwhelming. FWIW, while I haven't checked, I do expect Harang's poor performance today to knock him off these charts.

If the above list was used to pick all-star teams, with 28 players per team, here's how it would break down in terms of representation by team (assuming no minimum representation requirement):

ARI	2
ATL	2
BAL	2
BOS	4
CHA	4
CHN	3
CIN	2
CLE	3
COL	--
DET	--
FLA	2
HOU	1
KC	1
LAN	2
LAA	2
MIL	--
MIN	1
NYA	3
NYN	1
OAK	1
PHI	4
PIT	2
SD	2
SEA	--
SF	1
STL	3
TB	2
TEX	3
TOR	2
WAS	1

If anyone out there is interested in the raw spreadsheets (and they are a bit "raw," because I'm notoriously messy with my Excelling) that I use to calculate these data, feel free to drop me an e-mail and I'll send them your way. They're big, though, so I will ask that you be able to extract 7-zip documents. But that's what everyone should be using anyway! :)

Update on Outfielders:
If you prefer to lump all of your outfielders together (which, of course, is how the all-star voting works and is probably how I should have done it anyway), they come out looking like this:

NL
1. Brian Giles (SDN): 25 RAR, +12 FLD, 34 TV
2. Pat Burrell (PHI): 31 RAR, +4 FLD, 33 TV
3. Carlos Beltran (NYM): 18 RAR, +7 FLD, 27 TV
4. Jason Bay (PIT): 29 RAR, -1 FLD, 26 TV
5. Nate McLouth (PIT): 30 RAR, -12 FLD, 21 TV
6. Ryan Ludwick (STL): 28 RAR, -6 FLD, 22 TV

AL
1. Grady Sizemore (CLE): 31 RAR, +3 FLD, 35 TV
2. Johnny Damon (NYY): 26 RAR, +2 FLD, 27 TV
3. B.J. Upton (TB): 27 RAR, +2 FLD, 26 TV
4. J.D. Drew (BOS): 25 RAR, +3 FLD, 25 TV
5. Josh Hamilton (TEX): 27 RAR, -4 FLD, 23 TV
6. Nick Markakis (BAL): 21 RAR, +1 FLD, 20 TV

No differences for the NL, but John Hamilton makes the cut instead of Jacoby Ellsbury in the AL. Jason Giambi (24 RAR, -6 FLD, 17 TV) would be Josh Hamilton's replacement at DH on the AL team.

Part 6: Accounting for league differences

This is more of a methods post. It's fairly trivial, and not likely to be interesting to 99% of you, but I wanted to post it for the purposes of showing my work. I had to do this in order to produce mlb-wide year to date total value player rankings that will go up in a few minutes.

One of the problems with how I've been calculating runs above replacement is that I haven't accounted for differences in the quality of the leagues. At Tom Tango's blog, they use a difference of ~5 runs per season to represent differences across leagues. Up 'til now, I've just opted to ignore this, mostly because I'm lazy. However, I've noticed that my estimated value for the top NL players this year has been universally better than that for AL players. So, I was concerned that I was overestimating NL player value, at least to some degree, by not accounting for league differences.

I decided that I needed to make an adjustment to my methods to account for this. However, this is easier said than done, because I'm using slightly different methods than what Tango and others have been using. In particular, he starts with linear weights (or WPA/LI) that are standardized vs. average, while I prefer to start with absolute linear weights (some people call these "lwts_rc" because they resemble the output of James' Runs Created). This means that the math is slightly different. What follows is how I'm reconciling the two methods.

I've been a calculating a hitter's runs vs. replacement level as:

([Player R/G] - [Constant]*[MLBAvgR/G]) / [26.25 outs/G] * [outs] = RAR

For details, see this article.

At question here is the constant that I use. I've been using 73% for all players, which means that replacement level is 73% of the production of the average big league hitter (MLBAvgR/G above). To match up to Tango's work, a 5.0 r/g hitter in the AL should be worth ~25 RAR over a full season, while 5.0 r/g in the NL should be worth just 20 RAR. This is because the AL is a better league, and therefore it takes a better hitter to hit 5.0 r/g in the AL than the NL.

So, I took what approximates a MLB-average hitter over a full season (700 PA, 0.335 OBP, 5.0 R/G) and solved for the constant needed to result in 25 RAR (the AL value). This constant was 72%, which is very close to the 73% I have been using. However, when I instead solved for the constant needed to get 20 RAR (the NL value), I got 77%. This is quite a bit higher than what I've been using, and indicates that I've been overestimating the value of NL players (including the Reds, unfortunately...and they're not exactly tearing the cover off the ball).

The difference is not huge...we're talking 5 runs per 700 PA, and most hitters never make it to 700 PA. But from this point on (until the NL catches up with the AL, at least), I'm using 72% as the baseline for AL hitters, and 77% as the baseline for NL hitters. The result will be that NL hitters are going to be devalued by up to 5 runs per season. It's not a huge difference in value, but money-wise, it means about $2 million less in estimated salary per season...

Also, I followed a similar procedure to adjust pitcher numbers (though I won't bore you with the math). From this point on, AL pitcher replacement level will be defined as 129% of MLB average for starters, and 108% of MLB average for relievers. Conversely, in the NL, which is an easier place to play, I will define replacement level as 124% of MLB average for starters and 103% of MLB average for relievers. The AL figures match up well with those I've been using, while the NL figures set a higher bar (because it's an easier league).

I'm not arguing that these adjustments are perfect by any means, but my feeling is that they do constitute an improvement over the numbers I have been using.

FWIW, the best NL players are still doing quite a bit better than the best AL players after this adjustment. You'll see that in the next post...

Monday Night Reds Monitor - Through 15 June

This is my regular look at the Reds' season-to-date statistics, with minimal (for me) commentary.

I've tried to include notes below each table about the meaning of some of the more obscure statistics, and many of these stats are discussed in detail in my player value series (see sidebar). But if you have questions please do not hesitate to ask!

NL Central Update

Team	W	L	PCT	GB	RS*	RS/G*	RA*	RA/G*	Pwins	W%for90	XtrapW
CHN	45	25	0.643	0.0	376	5.37	271	3.87	46	0.489	104
STL	42	29	0.592	3.5	341	4.80	316	4.46	38	0.527	96
MIL	36	33	0.522	8.5	305	4.42	318	4.61	33	0.581	85
PIT	34	36	0.486	11.0	346	4.95	370	5.28	33	0.609	79
HOU	33	37	0.471	12.0	311	4.44	345	4.93	32	0.620	76
CIN	33	38	0.465	12.5	311	4.38	349	4.91	32	0.626	75

Remarks: RS, RA, RS/G and RA/G are all park-adjusted. Pwins is the PythagoPat predicted wins for each team. W%for90 is the winning percentage a team will need from now on to reach 90 wins. XtrapW is the extrapolated number of wins the team will get, assuming they maintain the same winning percentage.

Since I last checked in, the Reds went 5-7 (0.417), but it feels like things went even worse...they have regained the title of worst offense in the division, though thanks to slippage by Houston's pitching staff, their defense now ranks (a distant) 4th.....Meanwhile, the Cubs have the best record in baseball, top the division in both offense and defense, and remain on pace to break the 100-win plateau...the Cardinals continue to surprise, though Pythagoras thinks they have four wins more than they should.....Milwaukee's resurgence seems to have stalled.....Houston had a very bad week and a half, going 2-9 to drop from 3rd to 5th place.....

Hitting

Last	First	PA	BB%	K%	%LD	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	PrOPS	lwts_RC	R/G	RAR
Dunn	Adam	273	21%	25%	16%	0.238	0.229	0.396	0.524	0.295	0.920	1.059	44.6	7.09	22.6
Votto	Joey D	248	10%	18%	24%	0.299	0.275	0.347	0.486	0.211	0.833	0.894	35.5	5.75	13.9
Phillips	Brandon	296	7%	16%	17%	0.274	0.265	0.314	0.493	0.228	0.807	0.816	40.1	5.18	13.0
Hairston	Jerry	142	6%	14%	31%	0.390	0.336	0.382	0.480	0.144	0.862	0.751	24.4	7.11	12.4
Encarnacion	Edwin	269	10%	17%	13%	0.260	0.244	0.327	0.450	0.206	0.777	0.798	34.4	4.99	10.3
Bruce	Jay A	88	13%	16%	27%	0.379	0.342	0.432	0.566	0.224	0.998	0.997	16.4	8.60	9.7
Keppinger	Jeff S	163	7%	5%	19%	0.326	0.324	0.373	0.446	0.122	0.819	0.789	22.0	5.62	8.3
Griffey Jr.	Ken	283	15%	14%	17%	0.266	0.245	0.357	0.392	0.147	0.749	0.813	31.8	4.59	7.6
Bako	Paul	180	10%	26%	21%	0.299	0.238	0.315	0.406	0.168	0.721	0.782	19.6	4.16	3.1
Freel	Ryan	143	6%	13%	20%	0.342	0.298	0.340	0.359	0.061	0.699	0.666	15.1	4.18	2.5
Cabrera	Jolbert	7	14%	14%	40%	0.600	0.500	0.571	0.500	0.000	1.071	N/A	1.5	13.35	1.1
Ross	Dave	81	16%	20%	20%	0.286	0.227	0.354	0.318	0.091	0.672	0.757	8.1	4.03	1.1
Hopper	Norris S	30	7%	0%	14%	0.240	0.240	0.321	0.240	0.000	0.561	0.730	2.6	3.29	-0.2
Phillips	Andy A	21	10%	14%	19%	0.188	0.158	0.238	0.211	0.053	0.449	0.660	0.9	1.43	-1.3
Valentin	Javier	55	5%	16%	9%	0.279	0.235	0.273	0.294	0.059	0.567	0.546	3.9	2.58	-1.4
Castro	Juan	11	9%	0%	10%	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.000	0.000	0.091	0.647	-0.7	-1.72	-2.0
Hatteberg	Scott	61	11%	11%	19%	0.191	0.173	0.262	0.231	0.058	0.493	0.701	2.9	1.72	-3.1
Janish	Paul	57	7%	25%	24%	0.263	0.192	0.263	0.212	0.020	0.475	0.643	2.4	1.49	-3.2
Patterson	Corey	172	5%	11%	13%	0.188	0.193	0.229	0.348	0.155	0.577	0.712	13.9	2.73	-3.9

Remarks: PrOPS estimates OPS based on batted ball data, and deviations between the two are often due to "luck." LWTS_RC are estimated runs created based on linear weights. RAR is runs above replacement player, without a position adjustment (that is done with the fielding data). All runs estimates are park-adjusted.

The Reds' team linear weights total 320 runs, which is 9 more than they've actually scored (both numbers park adjusted).....Dunn continues to be the Reds' most valuable hitter by a considerable margin.....Votto overtook a slumping Phillips for the second spot....Jerry Hairston's rate of production has actually been equal to Dunn's this season, based on linear weights...Dunn does it with walks and homers, while Hairston does it with singles and doubles...when the latter equal the former in total number of bases, they're more valuable...PrOPS thinks he's overachieved though, so look for Hairston to return to earth when he returns.....It apparently is possible to get Jay Bruce out now and then, but he's still having a heck of a first month in the big leagues.....Encarnacion has been hot these last two weeks, but unless he goes on an extended tear, his first half is going to be very disappointing.....


Total Player Value (Hitting + Fielding)

Last	First	Pos	RAR	Fielding	PosAdj	TtlValue
Phillips	Brandon	2B	13.0	5.3	0.4	18.8
Dunn	Adam	LF	22.6	-2.5	-2.3	17.8
Votto	Joey D	1B	13.9	6.7	-3.2	17.4
Bruce	Jay A	CF	9.7	1.1	0.0	10.9
Hairston	Jerry	SS	12.4	-2.4	0.7	10.6
Encarnacion	Edwin	3B	10.3	-3.8	0.4	6.9
Bako	Paul	C	3.1	0.9	2.8	6.9
Keppinger	Jeff S	SS	8.3	-3.2	1.2	6.3
Cabrera	Jolbert	SS	1.1	0.5	0.0	1.7
Freel	Ryan	CF	2.5	-1.4	0.2	1.2
Patterson	Corey	CF	-3.9	3.5	0.9	0.5
Ross	Dave	C	1.1	-2.3	1.2	-0.1
Hopper	Norris S	LF	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.1
Griffey Jr.	Ken	RF	7.6	-5.6	-2.2	-0.3
Castro	Juan	SS	-2.0	1.5	0.1	-0.4
Phillips	Andy A	3B	-1.3	0.4	0.0	-0.8
Valentin	Javier	C	-1.4	-1.2	0.3	-2.3
Hatteberg	Scott	1B	-3.1	0.4	-0.5	-3.2
Janish	Paul	SS	-3.2	-0.7	0.5	-3.4

Remarks: RAR is the same as above, and is park-adjusted. Fielding is the average runs saved estimate between ZR and RZR. Position adjustments are adjustments of the run value of a player's positions, pro-rated for playing time. Total value is just the sum of all of these numbers, and is an estimate of total run value above a replacement player.

Overall, the Reds' fielding sums to -3 runs vs. average, which is an uptick of 4 runs in the past week and a half...THT's team plus/minus fielding stat agrees, which might make one think that this might be real...most of it comes from a bump to Phillips's numbers, and a huge swing in Patterson's numbers in CF...The former I"ll believe, but the latter is probably more of an indication how shaky these fielding numbers can be, especially in the outfield.....Anyway, thanks to a nice bump in his fielding numbers, Phillips overtook Dunn as the Reds most valuable position player.....a league average starter should have 8.8 RAR by now, so the Reds can only boast 5 guys who have clearly been above average players.....Hey, it's mid-June, and Griffey is still rated as a replacement player.

Pitching

Last	First	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	HR/F	%GB	BABIP	ERA	FIP	OPSa	BsR	BsR/G	RAR	FIPRAR
Volquez	Edinson	88.0	10.7	4.5	0.3	5%	52%	0.268	1.64	2.71	0.557	25.7	2.63	31.4	26.9
Harang	Aaron	101.0	7.9	1.8	1.2	11%	33%	0.315	4.10	3.47	0.772	51.8	4.61	13.7	22.3
Cordero	Francisco	30.7	10.0	5.3	0.9	11%	40%	0.208	2.64	3.89	0.582	10.4	3.06	10.4	2.9
Burton	Jared	36.3	9.9	2.7	0.7	9%	52%	0.307	2.48	2.76	0.647	14.7	3.63	5.0	7.0
Bray	Bill P	21.3	8.9	4.6	0.4	5%	37%	0.300	2.53	3.13	0.669	9.2	3.88	2.4	3.3
Cueto	Johnny	79.7	8.1	3.5	2.0	19%	37%	0.281	5.42	5.12	0.833	49.3	5.57	2.3	3.1
Lincoln	Mike	32.0	7.6	2.3	2.0	30%	60%	0.244	5.06	4.75	0.753	16.0	4.50	1.3	-0.9
Mercker	Kent	13.7	3.9	5.3	0.7	7%	40%	0.279	3.29	4.73	0.750	6.6	4.35	0.8	-0.4
Affeldt	Jeremy	32.7	9.9	3.6	1.7	26%	56%	0.311	4.68	4.17	0.765	17.8	4.91	-0.1	1.2
Herrera	Daniel R.	3.0	12.0	3.0	3.0	94%	56%	0.375	9.00	5.30	0.972	2.5	7.63	-0.9	-0.3
Majewski	Gary W	5.0	5.4	3.6	1.8	16%	47%	0.312	3.60	5.97	0.917	3.7	6.57	-0.9	-0.8
Arroyo	Bronson	79.7	8.5	3.5	1.5	16%	37%	0.343	5.31	4.29	0.853	53.3	6.02	-1.6	10.3
Coffey	Todd	15.3	2.9	3.5	1.8	26%	55%	0.278	6.46	6.05	0.879	10.4	6.14	-2.1	-2.6
Belisle	Matt	29.7	4.2	1.8	1.2	14%	51%	0.364	7.28	4.26	0.914	23.5	7.13	-4.3	4.0
Weathers	David	25.3	6.0	5.0	1.8	20%	41%	0.296	4.26	5.78	0.883	18.6	6.60	-4.8	-3.6
Bailey	Homer	12.3	2.2	7.3	4.4	30%	37%	0.227	8.76	10.76	1.138	13.9	10.17	-5.9	-7.2
Fogg	Josh	28.3	5.4	3.2	2.2	17%	38%	0.317	9.85	6.01	0.964	24.1	7.67	-8.8	-4.7

Remarks: BsR are base runs for a given pitcher, based on hitting events (not earned runs). RAR is base runs above replacement player, using a different standard for starters and relievers. Relievers with saves get a leverage-index boost in their RAR value. FIPRAR is a DIPS-based estimate of runs above replacement, using Tom Tango's Fielding Independent Runs as the runs estimator.

Let's see, good 2008 Reds pitching performances: Volquez, Harang, Cordero, Burton... and umm... Bray? If you believe his peripherals (and I do), Arroyo has been ok.....Cueto's K/BB rates continue to be pretty good, but his Milton-esque proclivity for long flies is killing him.....There's recently been calls for his dismissal, but I have to say that Lincoln's GB% and other peripherals are encouraging, despite that scary HR/F%.....Finally, it's hard to imagine a worse return than Homer Bailey's...his velocity is down, he hasn't been striking people out, and he's still walking a ton...I know they say he's not injured, but he hid an injury last year...I just can't get over the feeling that there must be something wrong with him...how many 22-year olds lose 2-3 mph of velocity for no apparent reason? ... I would not think many, though apparently something similar is happening with both Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, so maybe I'm wrong.

Overall, the Reds' base runs total 352 runs, which is 3 more than they've actually allowed. Combining this number with the lwts-estimated 320 runs scored and plugging into the pythagorean equation gives an estimated winning percentage of 0.453 (32-39), which means the Reds are unfortunately about a win better than expected. Getting trounced 9-0 will do that to your run differential, though. Figures that the one game I get a chance to see since April turns out to be such a stinker....

I have to admit, unless the Reds score some nice returns from the guys on the trading block, it's not shaping up to be a very interesting rest of the season.

Thanks to the Hardball Times, who supplied most of the data used to generate the above reports. ZR data came from ESPN.com.