@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

Back from vacation for a few days now, and I think I've already lost the little bit of tan I gained. In typical basement-dweller fashion, I don't much like the sun. Much prefer to be under the umbrella with a good book or binoculars/bird book. But the kids did get some time, and mighty sand-castles were built in Ocean City.

Anyway, I updated the power rankings today. The Reds are basically just sucking these days, but nothing prepared me for this:

I also wanted to take a moment to mourn what's happening with my Reds, who have slipped to second-to-last in the rankings behind the...Nationals. At least Jim Bowden isn't employed over there anymore, though I'm sure that a) he reads this and b) he's gloating. Bastard.

I feel sad about the Reds right now. Fortunately, I have some historical Reds stuff planned in the very near future to get my mind off of this 2009 team. Stay tuned...

@BTB: Power Rankings Updated

We need a hero! Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've updated the power rankings at Beyond the Boxscore this evening. The Reds don't gain or lose any spots (thank goodness Washington sucks too!), though I gave special mention to that loss the other night in the commentary with respect to the Phillies:

The Phillies surged up the rankings this week, largely on the back of their record-breaking ass-kick of my Reds on July 6. Meanwhile, their principle threat for much of the year--the Mets--are in a freefall, losing 9 of their last 11 and falling to 22nd on our list. But wait--the Braves surged this week through the 0.500 teams, picking up seven spots and are now just 3 spots behind the Phillies. The NL East seems as though it's becoming a battle between the Phillies' offense and the Braves' pitching...at least on paper. In reality, the Marlins are in the mix as well, but our rankings don't think that team has played quite as well as their record indicates: they've scored 20 more runs then their wRC would predict.

At least Homer had a nice outing tonight! The K/BB (6/0) is particularly encouraging! Maybe Homer can save us...

What's wrong with Bronson Arroyo?

Somebody needs to FIX IT! Image by Brent and MariLynn via Flickr

Arroyo hasn't been good this year. He's 8-7, but has a 5.69 ERA, a 6.03 FIP, a 5.15 xFIP, a 6.79 tRA, and a 5.59 tRA*. None of those is encouraging.

Last night, he said this:

“That’s the way it goes, man,” Arroyo said. “There’s nothing to say as far as why I’m giving up so many homers. I’ve always given up a decent amount. Physically, I feel good. I feel strong. I’m able to throw 90 if I need it.

“I’m in one of those ruts where I can’t get over the hump, get on the plus side, winning 3-0, 4-1. I’ve been chasing it the last couple times. All you can do is take the ball every fifth day and try to dig yourself out of it.”

The following all comes from his fangraphs page.

His home run rate is up a fair bit this season:

Predictably, his HR/FB rate is as well, and that's usually thought to fluctuate randomly. Even better, his ground ball rate is actually up this year. This is why his xFIP is so much better than his FIP. So that's good news.

What's bothering me about Arroyo is his strikeout rate. In particular, look at this graph:
What I'm seeing here is a steady decline in his k/9 rates from mid-last season until now. His k/9 rate this year is its lowest since 2005 when with the Red Sox, and to me is looking pretty scary. I've long believed that Bronson's bellweather stat is his strikeout rate, so color me concerned.

I'm no scout, so I can't give you a precise cause. But let's play a bit: his fastball run value has taken a huge hit this year, and appears to be where the problem lies among his major pitches from the pitch value data. But his fastball velocity, as he said, is essentially unchanged vs last year. And his fastball pitchf/x movement looks similar (maybe a slight drop in vertical movement, but not as large as 2007 vs 2008). Run values on his curve ball and change are actually improved this year, and are mostly unchanged on his slider, so those pitches look fine.

His walk rate is up this year. So, here's a hypothesis: Arroyo's not spotting his fastball this season, and so he can't use it to properly set up his breaking slop as he usually does. And he's behind in the count more than usual, causing him to give better pitches to hit. I can't do my own pitchf/x at this point, but would someone like to test this who can assess strike zones? Maybe compare balls vs strikes on all 3-1 and 3-2 counts in 2009 vs. 2008 in which he threw a fastball? I've gone as far as I can go.

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

The Reds need Eddie to come back strong. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

I've updated the power rankings at BtB.

Not a good week for the Reds. Well, sort of. Their expected winning percentage improved from 0.409 to 0.414. So there's that. But other teams near their spot improved even more, causing the Reds to fall to ...28th in the rankings. Out of 30 teams.

This gives me no pleasure. But this Reds team just hasn't been very good. The fielding's great, and that's nice to see. But the hitting has been horrid, and the pitching is "only" average. I know they're only 4 games out....but unfortunately, unless some pitchers get back on track, and Encarnacion + Votto can carry the offense, I don't know if there's enough here to catch a team like the Brewers.

Do the Rockies have the best pitching in baseball?

Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher I can't remember. Image by Getty Images via Daylife

The BtB Power Rankings seem to show it, and Sky gives it another look.

He's right that they aren't the best in MLB. I still think they might be the best in the NL. Here's my (rather disjointed response):

A few things:

1. The Rockies get more of a hand than any other team in with tRA, because we’re using David Gassko’s batted ball park factors (linked here: http://www.statcorner.com/tRAabout.html). Their k-rate, for example, is boosted by a mlb-low park factor of 0.89. Home run per outfield fly correction is similarly high (second-highest in MLB) at 1.22. Virtually everything except walk rates are adjusted in the Rockies’ favor. Coors’ is the best hitters’ park in baseball, though, so you’d expect them to get the most help.

2. If you take their 4.10 FIP and correct for park, where does that put you? I haven’t done it myself, but I’m guessing pretty close to the league lead. You can use 0.89 as a park factor for K’s, 1.00 for BB’s, 0.97 for HBP (all from Gassko), and 1.08 for HR’s (from patriot). … ok, let’s do it:
Raw FIP = (13*67 + 3*(223+20-10) – 2*468)/633 + 3.14 = 4.10
Cor FIP = (13*61 + 3*(223+21-10) – 2*526)/633 + 3.14 = 3.81

That’d tie them for third with SF in FIP (without doing park corrections for those teams). As you said, not the best by this measure, but extremely good.

3. It’s worth mentioning that in addition to the DH issue, I’m not correcting the pitching stats in the power rankings for league difficulty. That gets tacked on at the end (which lets people ignore it if they want to). So yeah, the Rockies aren’t the best in MLB. But they are at least among the top 3-5 staffs in the NL this season.
-j

@BtB: Power Rankings Updated

I updated the power rankings at BtB last night. The Reds held steady at #25....but there's a big gap between the #24 Athletics and the Reds, bigger even than the gap between the Reds and the last place Padres. A strong week from the Reds would help, and getting away from AL East teams will help...

Also, Sky did a nice comparison between different power ranking systems here.

On Joey Votto

Votto is back, hopefully to stay. Image by team doster via Flickr

This is one of the most impressive things I've ever seen from a professional athlete:

“As some of you know, my father passed away last August. The first day back I kind of put that all on the back burner and just played baseball all the way to the end of September. I don’t want to use the word suppress because he was in my thoughts and I was dealing with it on a daily basis. But, as powerful a moment that is to lose your father so young, in a way I did suppress it. From August to the beginning of spring training, I was pretty severely depressed. I was dealing with the anxiety of grief and sadness and fear. Every emotion you can imagine that everyone goes through.

“I had a really difficult time with it. I was by myself down in Florida. I just was really looking forward to baseball. When baseball started up in February, I kind of did the same thing I did last August and threw it all on the side, threw all my emotions on the back burner and played baseball.

“I got sick in May. I had the upper respiratory thing and the ear infection. It was taking the time away from baseball and recovering from being sick when for the first time all emotions that had been pushing to the side that I had been dealing with and struggling with in the winter hit me. They hit me a hundred times more than I had been dealing with.

“I was taken out of three separate games. The first game it was a combination of me being ill. But I could tell there was something going on. I couldn’t recover. I had this feeling of anxiety. I had this feeling in my chest. The second time I came out in San Diego, it was similar. But I was healthy and I felt like I could’ve played.

“The third time was in Milwaukee, and I was totally overwhelmed.

“I spoke to some doctors. They came to the conclusion I was dealing with obviously being depressed and anxiety and panic attacks. They were overwhelming to the point where I had to go to the hospital on two separate occasions. Once in San Diego and once – nobody had been told about – but I went to the hospital once in Cincinnati when the team was on the road.

“It was a very, very scary and crazy night. I had to call 911 at 3 or 4 in the morning. It was probably the scariest moment I ever dealt with in my life. I went to the hospital that night.

“The days I was taken off the field were little, miniature versions of what I was dealing with by myself. Ever since I’ve been on the DL and even the little bit before the DL, I’ve been really struggling with this in my private life. I’d go on the field and try to do my best and play well. I had my spurts when I’d play well. But going out on the field . . . I couldn’t do it anymore because I was so overwhelmed physically by the stuff I was dealing with off the field.

“It finally seeped its way into the game. I just had to put an end to it. I really couldn’t be out there. It’s difficult to explain what I was going through. I couldn’t do it. I physically couldn’t do my job. That’s what I’ve gone through.

“I’ve been talking and seeing some doctors. They’ve been a great help. And speaking to people in general – I spoke to my team last week – and letting people know what I’ve been dealing with and how difficult this grieving process has been. My father was young, and I’m a young man. I really wish I hadn’t lost my father so young. I’m the oldest brother. I feel like I’m responsible for my family. Maybe I have a proclivity for depression or whatever it is.

“But I was dealing with some pretty abnormal circumstances – the combination of being a major league ballplayer, a young ballplayer and also dealing with my father and my family.”

This is the kind of thing that makes me, at least, reflect a bit on my own life. It's a totally different situation, but I've had my share of stress over the past year. I (frantically) finished my dissertation, found a job, relocated across country, made it through my first (brutal, at times) year as full time faculty, and just over a month ago had my second child. I've been extremely lucky to have it all go as well as it has. I'm proud of what I've accomplished, and I love my job and my family.

But it's been 100 mph all the time, and do or die far more than is comfortable. I've seen friends who didn't make it. The best man at my wedding came just months from finishing his own degree program before depression and other issues pushed him down a path that has, as far as I know, ended his academic career. I've been so obsessed with my own problems that I have completely lost touch with him. Another friend's anxiety issues kept him from ever really getting started in our lab, despite ample talent. And I'm no psychologist, but I've seen capable students this year drop out because of what seemed to me to be similar anxiety issues. Sometimes I wonder what might have happened--and where I'd be--if things hadn't gone as well. While I know there are lots of people out there dealing with far more difficult things than I have had to cope with, I also know that I've felt close to breaking far too many times this past year.

So good for Votto for speaking up today. My feeling is that it probably did him a lot of good. And I have to think that it will be an enormous help to a lot of people struggling with problems of depression and anxiety to read his words.