As we saw in part one, the Reds' defense continues to be one of the largest problems facing the team. Tonight, I want to investigate that in more detail. Let's start with a figure comparing two measures of team defense: Dave Studeman's Runs Saved statistic (+-runs) and Michael Lichtman's UZR fielding stats, summed across players on each team. Stats current through May 31st for this season for NL Teams:
Comparison of THT's Runs Saved statistic and total UZR Runs Saved for teams. The latter was calculated by summing UZR scores for all Reds. Both statistics report runs saved above average, and assess the combined effect of range and sure-handedness. More than 70 runs separate the best and worst teams, which accounts, by itself, for 7 wins in the first ~55 games. The diagonal line indicates a perfect match between THT and UZR.The story is not pretty. The Reds' defense is clearly among the three worst teams in the National League. And given that UZR is based on more detailed data than the THT data, there's a legitimate argument that the Reds have the worst defense in the league. The average of these two estimates puts the Reds at -27 runs below average. Already.
A quick thought exercise: If the Reds "just" had an average defense this season, that would mean that they would have given up 259 runs this season (instead of 286), or 4.7 runs per game. This would rank them 10th in the league in runs allowed, up from their current ranking of dead last, and would improve their PythagoPat record to 27-28. And with a top-flight defense, saving 40 runs above average like the Cubs (UZR) or Mets (THT)? That's 77 fewer runs, giving 3.8 runs allowed per game, which would be second only to San Diego (PythagoPat improves to 32-23). Defense matters.
I'm surprised by how bad the Reds defense has been. Shocked might be a better word. I expected the Reds to be better this year on defense than in 2006. Gonzalez taking over SS from Lopez and Clayton, Griffey's move to right field, and Ryan Freel (who was stellar in CF last season) and/or Josh Hamilton in center field all should have improved the defense, while the other players remained constant.
Instead, it appears to have actually gotten worse, at least so far this season. According to THT's +- runs stat, the Reds' defense was -20 runs below average all of last year combined. Here, it is only in early June, and they have already surpassed that mark. What on earth is going on??
Thanks to MGL's extremely kind decision to release his UZR statistics through May 31st of this season, we can look more closely at team defense. I don't have full details on how UZR is calculated, but you can think of it as normal zone rating, just adjusted for a variety of important effects such as park factors and (I think) handedness of batters. Since THT isn't yet able to post its ZR stats, I don't have a good fielding stat to compare UZR to right now (the ZR reported by ESPN isn't a very good version of ZR), so I'm just going to report the data as a table:
| Name | POS | Team | Runs Saved (Range) | Runs Saved (Fielding Errors) | Runs Saved (Other Errors) | Total Runs Saved | G |
| Conine, Jeff | 3 | cin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| Hatteberg, Scott | 3 | cin | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Phillips, Brandon | 4 | cin | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 38 |
| Freel, Ryan | 4 | cin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keppinger, Jeff | 5 | cin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Castro, Juan | 5 | cin | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 |
| Freel, Ryan | 5 | cin | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 11 |
| Encarnacion, Edwin | 5 | cin | -7 | -2 | 0 | -9 | 21 |
| Castro, Juan | 6 | cin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Gonzalez, Alex | 6 | cin | -2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 37 |
| Hopper, Norris | 7 | cin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Hamilton, Josh | 7 | cin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Dunn, Adam | 7 | cin | -4 | -2 | 0 | -6 | 31 |
| Hopper, Norris | 8 | cin | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Freel, Ryan | 8 | cin | -6 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 27 |
| Hamilton, Josh | 8 | cin | -6 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 20 |
| Hamilton, Josh | 9 | cin | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 12 |
| Hopper, Norris | 9 | cin | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| Griffey, Ken | 9 | cin | -3 | -3 | 0 | -6 | 33 |
Let's go position-by-position. Unless I mention otherwise, all fielding stats I mention are UZR, though you can look at my 2006 fielding review for more info on last year's fielding performances.
1B: Both Conine and Hatteberg have been average at first. Hatteberg, at least, was better than average last season, so we might hope for improvement there.
2B: Phillips is above average this season at +3 runs, which is a very nice improvement over last season. UZR has Phillips as below-average last year, though most other range stats pegged him as right about average.
3B: Ugh. Here's about a third of the Reds' struggles. For all the fuss about Eddie's tendency to make errors, those only are knocking his UZR rating down by two runs. The rest is bad range. Horrible range, in fact. Eddie is currently last among all third basemen in both his total rating of -9 runs and his range rating of -7 runs. He's on pace to smash his -20 runs rating of last season.
I really do think he's better than that--he did post a very positive UZR his first season with the Reds (2005). And he's young, so he can improve. But we can't wait forever. Fortunately, my impressions are that he's been better since his return from AAA--Marty certainly was pleased with him during the last home stand, and he's about as down on Encarnacion as anyone can be. I hope he can get himself to be at least an average 3B by the time 2008 rolls around.
SS: Gonzalez is currently rated a thoroughly average -1 runs saved. Interestingly, despite already making more errors this season than last, he's actually above average in error rate for his position and below average in range (both only slightly). Hopefully he can get back to the form that allowed him to save +9 runs above average last season, as he is a good defender, even if he's overrated by the media--he is clearly not anywhere close to being in Adam Everett's league. Nevertheless, he remains a significant defensive upgrade over Felipe Lopez (-17 runs last season).
Oh, a fun aside: you know how the media kept talking about how Boston was going to miss Gonzalez's glove this season? His replacement, the supposed lead-gloved Julio Lugo, has thus far saved +4 runs above average, five more than Gonzalez. ... 'course, he's hitting 0.226/0.289/0.330, so that part of the equation isn't working out well yet.
LF: Dunn, at -6 runs below average, is on pace to break his personal worst of -20 runs below average that he set last season. Dunn is far from the worst left fielder in baseball (Manny Ramirez is -13 runs below average already), but he doesn't help us much out there. He probably should be playing first base, but we have Joey Votto coming up at that position. So barring a trade, we'll just have to accept him and deal with it. I don't expect much improvement, at least not any better than his 2006 performance.
CF: WTH? The big surprise to me is Ryan Freel, who is rated at -6 runs below average. Last season, other metrics (THT's ZR and PMR) rated him well above average defensively in center, so I'm having a hard time knowing what to make of this. Freel was rated as +5 runs saved per 150 games last season (+1 run saved in 45 games) by UZR, so this is a major drop-off, even if UZR doesn't "like" him as much as other stats. Hopefully he can come back from his head injury, rediscover some speed or something, and start running down in fly balls.
Hamilton, as I discussed in my piece on him for THT, is probably playing out of position. His range is decent, but best suited to right field, where his arm can continue to help win the occasional game. I do support trying to trade Griffey sooner rather than later (more on that in another post), and that would open RF for Hamilton. But the Reds will likely continue to be shaky at center field for the foreseeable future.
RF: Griffey hasn't had a very good start to his time in RF. Encouragingly, though, his range is only -3 runs below average, which is certainly tolerable for someone as productive as he has been at the plate. The rest of his -6 runs has to do with his errors, which were notable earlier in the season but seem to have tapered off. I think he'll be fine.
In sum, the only players in the Reds' defensive lineup (catchers excluded) who seems to be performing at or above the level we expect of them are Brandon Phillips and (maybe) Adam Dunn. That's the bad news. The good news is that I expect all of those other players to be better over what's left of the season. Nevertheless, continuing to improve the Reds' defense over the long term has to be one of the biggest priorities for Wayne Krivsky as he looks toward this years' trading deadline and the Reds' return to greatness in 2008. :)
Catchers
I'm going to give them short-shrift, at least for now (sorry, past bedtime). But the primary way research has shown that catchers can consistently contribute to a teams' defense is via their ability to stop the running game. This season, Dave Ross continues to be a standout, throwing out 46% of all would-be base stealers. Moeller, on the other hand, continues to show a weak arm, throwing out just 14%. The surprise, however, is Valentin, who has yet to throw out a base-stealer in 11 attempts. Last year, he caught 8 of 18, and he has a career 32% caught stealing percentage, so this is very unusual for him. I almost wonder if he might be having arm problems. If so, it's the first good reason that I've seen for the Reds to carry three catchers...if only Moeller could throw out runners, he might actually be a good fit.
That's an appropriate picture you chose to use at the top of the post.
ReplyDeleteThe division between runs saved due to range, and runs saved due to fielding errors, is an extraordinarily interesting one. I hadn't seen that before.
I'm shocked and horrified that Encarnación has such a poor rating due almost entirely to his range. The runs-saved numbers in your 2006 fielding review are not divided between range & errors so it's difficult to compare directly, but I had the distinct impression that Edwin had middling-to-good range.
Here are Eddie's UZR totals over his MLB career (the order is runssaved-range, runssaved-errors, runssaved-totals...sorry about the formatting):
ReplyDelete2005 +3 -3 0
2006 -9 -11 -20
2007 -7 -2 -9
I should note that I have no idea how the error numbers are calculated or separated from range...as far as I know, there's not a good, comprehensive description of MGL's methodology anywhere. But the data are very troubling--I always assumed, like you, that the problem with Eddie had more to do with consistency than range. ... though maybe those two play into one another.
For comparison (and to see how numbers can change year-to-year), here are data on another 3B, Eric Chavez:
2003 -9 +5 -4
2004 -1 +4 +3
2005 +7 +3 +10
2006 -3 +8 +5
2007 +2 +1 +3
Chavez went from -9 in range in '03 to +7 in range in '05. So I think there's still hope for Eddie. But he's got a long way to go. -j
J, the THT stats aren't based on runs. They're plays made above and below average.
ReplyDeleteHow much of the worse-than-expected performances (Freel and EdE, mainly) do you attribute to small sample size? The season is still young and neither have played FT at their position.
ReplyDeleteI do have the impression that Freel is a little worse this year, particularly on his routes to flyballs.
@Dave, thanks, and whoops. I'll have to back and re-read the THT 2006 annual to refresh myself on that stat. I've been using it for months now! :(
ReplyDelete@Ken, I'm sure that this could have something to do with it. The Reds have been dramatically worse than last season, and that just doesn't seem likely to carry over through the whole year. But I haven't had access to this particular sort of stat (+- fielding, based on pbp data) over the course of a regular season before, so it'll be interesting to see how it turns out (hopefully MGL will release again at season's end). -j
Justin,
ReplyDeleteExcellent, if depressing, analysis. A few comments...
On EdE: He certainly appears improved since returning from Louisville. Hopefully, this is a new level for Edwin and one that can be maintained. If he can be league average at 3B, we can live with that.
On A-Gon: This is a real disappointment. Gonzalez was given 3yr/$14M with the idea that he was a key to Kriv's "pitching and defense" solution for the team. "Thoroughly average" isn't what's needed at SS, particularly if the major component of EdE's sub-par defense is range. When A-Gon's offensive numbers start regressing to his career norms, this deal will look even worse.
On Junior: This is the first time in the length of Griffey's tenure here that there is an opportunity to trade him and improve the club. At least two AL teams need a left-handed power bat at DH. One, the Angels, have pitching and prospects to give. That would mean the Reds would have to eat some salary. The other, the Evil Empire, can offer salary relief but have little to offer off the big club (that we could use or afford) and little at the top levels of the farm system. Still, getting rid of Junior's remaining 2007 and all of the 2008 salary means opportunity in the FA market in the off-season. Now if I just could trust Krivsky to spend it wisely.
Hi Phil,
ReplyDeleteRe: Gonzalez. I think a lot of his perceived defensive value comes from his tendency to avoid errors, and his flashyness in the field. I cited some stats that indicated he was little more than average when we acquired him, including his 3-year mark from '03-'05 in John Dewan's plus/minus system of -1 plays above average.
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2006/11/reds-sign-alex-gonzalez.html
Other stats disagree somewhat, of course, with UZR putting him as a +9 runs fielder last season (cited above), and THT's Zone Rating placing him well above average:
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/03/how-should-we-calculate-zr.html
I think the net picture is that he should be considered a plus fielder in the long term, but he's not outstanding (i.e. Everett).
As far as Griffey goes, I think the key for the Reds' organization is to get at least one outstanding prospect for him (plus a few middling guys, perhaps). Salary relief for 2008 would be nice, of course, but that's a one-year bonus, so I think that's a lower priority than getting an excellent talent return. This makes me like a trade to the Angels far better than I like a trade to the Yankees. -j
J, that's probably the confusion. The stats on the THT page have never been published in the Annual. The Annual contains Dewan's plus/minus system by team, which is a more detailed version of what we have on the site.
ReplyDeleteReally, that link you provided explains it all (I think!).
You had an article about that stat in the 2006 annual, right? You reference it in your THT post. I re-encountered the annual article over the winter as I was putting together my fielding review, and somehow got the wrong idea about the units from it (I think). I'll double-check when I get home.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I re-read the relevant part of the THT post that I linked to (::blush::), and I do see that it says +- outs. I'm not sure how I screwed that up, but I've been doing that since last January (at least)!
Fortunately, it doesn't change the findings of this analysis, as UZR is showing differences in runs of roughly the same magnitude. So even the thought experiment speculation I did above still works. Anyway, thanks again for the correction.
-j
Yeah, the article in the Annual was runs, but I backed off and just decided to put outs on the site.
ReplyDeleteJustin,
ReplyDeleteI agree about the Angels. I think there are some pieces in that organization that will address some of the current problems. If this comes to pass before the trading deadline, I hope that Krivsky can get fair value.
I'm not in favor of it, but if management is going to trade Dunn, that might be a better match with LA than Junior. I think Dunn, particularly if the Angels can negotiate an extension, will be more likely to return more and better pieces for our puzzle.
But I think that there's a possible roadblock to an Angels/Reds trade as far as getting the value we'd like to have out of it. I don't think the Angels will be "desperate" at the deadline because I expect their AL West lead to have reached "comfortable" by then. The hope will be if they recognize that they don't want to be trotting out the bloated corpse of Shea Hillenbrand at DH during the playoffs. I think we can deal around this better with Dunn and his long-term value rather than Junior.
I'm hard pressed to find a fit for either outside these two teams, at least among the current AL contenders, because we're talking about a couple of DHs here. And I don't see NL teams being players in this for either Dunn or Junior.
Dave, glad to see I'm not completely senile, but thanks again for the correction! :)
ReplyDeletePhil, the main trouble with trading Dunn to the Angels is that they don't tend to be a bit of a throwback team that focuses on aggressive hitting and doesn't worry too much about OBP. At least, that's my impression of them. I have a feeling they'd like Griffey more, at least in short term. But what the heck do I know, this is all just speculation! :D
I'm not completely opposed to trading Dunn either, but he effectively becomes a free agent with that current contract of his He does have "old player skills" so he might decline faster than some other players. But I don't think he's in danger of imminent collapse yet, so like you say, the return would have to be phenomenal. -j
As far as other matches for Griffey, injuries can happen at any time... I'm sure he could be a great addition at DH, RF, or LF for a lot of clubs. -j
ReplyDeleteJustin,
ReplyDeleteIf Junior could/would play first, I'm sure the Tigers would be interested. Leyland's recent comments indicate he's pretty fed up with getting nothing outta Da Mayor but a smile.
The possible problem with marketing Junior as a position player is that it brings up the spectre of the injury history. Sure, he could get hurt at DH, but I think more clubs would be willing to take a flyer on him if they thought they could keep him out of the field.
Now whether Junior would agree to any of this is another matter.
I've had the distinct feeling for a year or so now that Junior would gladly go to a team that has a good shot at the playoffs. Lines like "I live in Florida, I just work in Cincinnati" don't indicate a particular loyalty to the franchise. We'll see! :)
ReplyDelete-j