TV-Blackout horror stories?

I'm just posting this because I've seen a lot of talk this year about problems with TV-blackouts in Redsland, especially folks in Dayton, Washington DC, etc. :)

Maury Brown, who is among those best attuned to the business side of baseball, is collecting e-mails about problems with blackouts for an upcoming Baseball Prospectus article. I realize that BP is a subscription-only service, but sending him your stories might be a great way to get these sorts of problems highlighted on a grand stage. I'll be interested to read his upcoming article about this stuff.

He's collecting these opinions at his non-subscription personal website, which can be found here. He often posts spin-offs and commentary on his personal website, and has been talking a lot about the recent TV deals. So I'd encourage you guys to check it out, even if you don't have a good story.

Reflections: Reds come back late to sweep Rockies 6-4 (7/16/06)

Ok, so I didn't get to see today's game except via MLB Gameday. But I wanted to post something more positive than I did the other today, and today's game was pretty exciting.

• Great to see that our offense still has the ability to rally a little bit late in the ballgame. Even so, I'm going to be very interested to see what our runs scored per game looks like at the end of this month. I'm guessing it'll be below the 5 runs per game they've averaged so far this year, especially with the lineups that Narron has been running out there.
  
• Yet another quality start from Elizardo Ramirez in his first day back from the minors. The kid has been nothing if not consistent. That's 9 out of 14 starts now in which he has gone at least 6 innings and given up no more than 3 runs. Where would we be without him in our rotation?
  
• David Weathers has given up only 2 runs in his past 8 appearances, totaling 8.1 innings. He can't seem to avoid giving up a hit though. :)
  
• Todd Coffey, on the other hand, has now pitched two consecutive scoreless appearances after allowing runs in his previous four appearances (and 5 of his prior 6 appearances). I hope the all-star break did that guy some good, as we need him for this bullpen to be solid.
• Redleg Nation is worried that Majewski might be tired, as he has been worked pretty hard so far this season. Christina Kahrl made a similar comment in her analysis of the trade at Baseball Prospectus. It's definitely concerning. Hopefully, Narron will try to limit his usage of the guy over the next month to make up for this. As I said in my analysis of the trade, I don't see Majewski as doing well in anything more than a middle-relief role. I'd rather see Bray given the opportunity to claim the setup role along with Coffey. But we need Majewski to be healthy and ready to pitch.
  
• Guardado did give up a homer today--which he will do--but I have to say that the guy has been everything I'd hoped he'd be in the 9th inning thus far. Hope he can keep it up.
  
• Adam Dunn hit his 30th today. We're really going to need Dunn and Griffey to get hot in the second half to help carry this offense.
  
• Another solid day at the plate from Eddie Encarnacion (2-3, 2 runs), this time in the #4 hole. He may have to keep on hitting this well to get any shot at playing. I'll be surprised if he plays tomorrow though. Oh, did I mention that he didn't make an error, and did start a double play?
• Props go to both Aurilia and Clayton for coming through in the pinch-hit role. I think that's a great role for those guys. ;) Although Gameday described Clayton's double as a "soft fly ball" and subsequent error by the shortstop. Anyone get to see that? I hear that folks back in Ohio don't get to see games this week either due to some sort of stupidity with FoxSports Ohio.

Forgoing the mid-season review

I've decided not to do a mid-season review of the Reds. This is partly because not a lot has changed from the June review and what happened over the first nine days of July. And partly because this team feels so different now after the trade that I need some time to just watch them and try to digest what's going on.

Oh, Estaban Yan was DFA'd today. I'm surprised to see him go instead of Standridge, who I'm pretty sure is still in an option year. Yan's peripherals were a lot worse than his ERA with the Reds, but Standridge hasn't exactly been a beacon of effectiveness either...

Update: And one other thing. Why the heck is Aurilia starting at 3B today? Eddie didn't even make an error in the last game, why not let him build on that? Encarnacion is now our best right-handed bat and Jerry Narron is wasting it on the bench, just a day after he went 2 for 3 with a walk. He's only 23 years old and he's sitting on the freaking bench. Are we only going to start Eddie when a lefthander is pitching and Aurilia can be shifted over the first?

And don't even get me started on Royce Clayton starting at shortstop tonight.

::sigh:: A major goal of mine since I started this blog was to avoid making this a place where people have to read rant after rant about our beloved Reds. It happens a lot on sports fan sites and I know what a turn-off it can be. After all, it's very easy for me to sit here in my arm chair and criticize the people who bust their butts trying to win every day. But I'm feeling pretty frustrated right now.

Update 2: I promise this is my last little rant for a while now. But Aurilia just made an error. Will he get benched tomorrow? Somehow I doubt it.

Update 3: Ok, I'm just going to be bitter today: Clayton also made an error today. So much for him being a "steady" defender. Too bad he doesn't have any range either.

The Blockbuster - Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner for Bray, Majewski, and others

Well, if there's one thing that Wayne Krivsky has demonstrated thus far, it's that he's not afraid to make a big move. And this one is enormous. The Reds desperately needed bullpen help, and they clearly got it in this trade. But at what cost? First, let's go over what they got. Then we'll talk about what they gave up, and end with some closing statements weighing the consequences of this trade.

The acquisitions, in rough order of importance:

Bill Bray, 23-year old Lefthanded Reliever:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/NCAA	37.0	11.7	1.0	0.24	0.232	1.95	1.28	---	---	---
2004/NCAA	59.0	12.8	2.3	0.61	0.311	2.44	2.00	---	---	---
2004/WAS-A+	7.3	7.4	1.2	0.00	0.361	4.91	1.97	---	---	---
2005/WAS-A+	12.7	12.8	2.1	0.71	0.258	2.13	2.10	4.63	2.3	45%
2005/WAS-AA	5.7	9.5	1.6	1.58	0.448	6.35	3.90	---	---	---
2005/WAS-AAA	21.3	10.6	3.8	1.27	0.340	5.06	3.95	5.48	-2.7	39%
2006/WAS-AAA	31.7	12.8	2.6	1.42	0.295	3.98	3.26	---	---	---
2006/WAS	23.0	6.3	3.5	0.78	0.293	3.91	4.11	---	4.4	---

A stud college closer, Bray was a first-round selection of the Expos in 2004. He has skyrocketed through the minors to a middle relief role with the Nationals this season. In the minors, he has been a dominant strikeout pitcher, although his walk rates have been inconsistent (though usually good) and his hr-allowed rates have gotten a bit high at the higher levels. I like him, and he should be a very good relief pitcher for us over the next 5 or 6 years that he's the Reds' property. He might be ready for a setup role this year, and has to be thought to be in the mix for closer next year. Good pickup, even more so because he's a lefty.

Gary Majewski, 26-year old Righthanded Reliever:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2003/CHW-AAA	72.2	9.0	3.6	0.37	0.290	3.96	2.95	4.00	6.4	--
2004/MON-AAA	15.1	10.1	4.8	0.00	0.389	4.11	2.54	3.86	1.2	--
2004/CHW-AAA	42.1	8.8	3.4	0.43	0.247	3.19	3.01	3.83	7.9	--
2004/MON	21.0	5.1	2.1	0.86	0.338	3.86	4.01	4.57	-2.1	49%
2005/WAS-AAA	6.1	3.0	3.0	0.00	0.300	4.26	3.53	---	---	---
2005/WAS	86.0	5.2	3.9	0.21	0.273	2.93	3.63	4.10	19.7	47%
2006/WAS	55.3	5.5	4.1	0.65	0.254	3.58	4.27	---	13.4	---

A less talented, but slightly more experienced reliever. Majewski was signed as a 2nd-round selection out of high school in '98. He rose through the white sox system at a steady though not exactly fast rate, but spent several years in AAA once he reached that level. Given his first real chance with the Nationals last year, he pitched a solid (though slightly lucky) 86 innings with a 2.93 ERA. Majewski's primary asset is that he keeps the ball in the park. Given GABP's negative effect on ground balls, as well as our potentially improved infield defense now that Felipe Lopez is out of the picture, this could mean success for him with the Reds.

Unfortunately his control has ranged from not-so-good to bad, and he doesn't strike many guys out. Furthermore, his BABIP and FIP both indicate that he has been pretty lucky this year and last year, and he has been pitching in RFK stadium, which is a severe pitcher's park. I doubt he'll ever be much more than a middle-innings kind of guy--at best, you might bring him in when you desperately need a late-inning double play. He is only 26, but his AAA numbers don't give me much reason to expect him to improve much over what he is now. Still, he's probably better than everyone in the Reds' pre-trade bullpen this side of Todd Coffey and Eddie Guardado.

Royce Clayton, 36-year old Right-Handed Batting Shortstop:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB/%	OBP	SLG	OPS	PrOPS	GPA	EqA	VORP
2003/MIL	539	17%	9%	2.0%	5/71%	0.301	0.333	0.634	---	0.219	0.227	-4.1
2004/COL	628	20%	8%	1.3%	10/67%	0.338	0.397	0.735	0.675	0.251	0.243	10.1
2005/ARI	563	19%	7%	0.4%	13/81%	0.320	0.351	0.670	0.665	0.232	0.236	6.7
2006/WAS	333	16%	6%	0.0%	8/73%	0.315	0.348	0.663	0.653	0.229	---	3.1

Clayton was once a highly touted prospect, but he never really turned out the way people had hoped...primarily because he never really did hit that well. He never was able to crack the 0.350 OBP mark during his career, and only a few times showed indications of the power that folks expected of him as a prospect. These days, he gets on base even less than he did in the past and has pretty weak power. Clayton used to have excellent speed, but that seems to have tapered as well, even if he does maintain a decent steal percentage. Furthermore, Clayton is a below-average fielder at this point in his career. His three-year totals from the Fielding Bible rate him as 14 plays below average. That's about equivalent with Felipe Lopez, and worse than Rich Aurilia and Juan Castro. The astonishing thing about Clayton is that for all his mediocrity, he hasn't played a position other than shortstop since 1992 when he played one game at third base while breaking in with the Giants. I mean, what the...? Other fun tidbit: he's the guy Rich Aurilia replaced in San Francisco.

So frankly, I don't understand why we bothered to pick Clayton up. He's a poorer hitter than and fielder than Aurilia, and while he might be better with the bat the Castro, he's still poorer in the field at a position where fielding is of prime importance. And he has no experience playing anything but shortstop. I just don't get it. I'd rather see someone like Olmedo out there. But as long as he's in a utility role, I'm ok with having him on the team. It's just that no one ever seems to use him in a utility role.

Brendan Harris, 25-year old Righthanded Batting Infielder:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB/%	OBP	SLG	OPS	PrOPS	GPA	EqA	VORP
2003/CHC-AA	497	14%	10%	1.0%	6/46%	0.364	0.425	0.789	---	0.270	0.263	23.0
2004/CHC-AAA	272	15%	6%	4.0%	0/0%	0.353	0.531	0.884	---	0.292	0.258	11.5
2004/WAS-AAA	139	15%	7%	4.3%	0/0%	0.345	0.480	0.825	---	0.275	0.239	0.0
2004/WAS	53	21%	4%	1.9%	0/0%	0.208	0.260	0.468	0.708	0.159	0.169	-4.7
2004/CHC	10	10%	10%	0.0%	0/0%	0.300	0.333	0.633	0.660	0.218	---	---
2005/WAS-AAA	517	15%	8%	2.5%	9/64%	0.329	0.417	0.746	---	0.252	0.243	5.4
2005/WAS	10	0%	0%	10.0%	0/0%	0.400	0.778	1.178	1.077	0.375	---	---
2006/WAS-AAA	245	23%	11%	2.0%	3/60%	0.379	0.416	0.795	---	0.275	---	---
2006/WAS	36	8%	8%	0.0%	0/0%	0.333	0.312	0.645	0.631	0.228	0.000	-0.2

Harris will be 26 by season's end, so he's probably about done developing. A 5th round selection by the Cubs in '01, he progressed at a good rate through the minors but hasn't yet found a way to stick in the majors yet. Harris has occasionally shown decent ability to get on base and has had flashes of line-drive power in the minors, but last hit for an OPS over 0.800 in 2004 at AAA and has never really been dominant the way the similar-aged Chris Denorfia has. I'm guessing that this is his final option year, so the Reds will have to make a decision about him in spring training of next year. I've seen indications that he's a slightly above average fielder at 2B and 3B. Given our current glut of veteran and young infielders, though, I'm not sure where Harris fits in. I don't see him as anything more than a utility guy in the future, and he may hit better than Olmedo or Bergolla. On the whole, not a bad pickup, but I'd think he's more a throw-in than anything.

Daryl Thompson, 19-year old Right-Handed Starting Pitcher:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP
2003/WAS-Rk	46.0	3.5	2.2	0.20	0.286	2.15	3.42
2004/WAS-A	102.2	7.0	2.6	1.14	0.314	5.08	4.19
2005/WAS-A	53.2	8.1	4.1	0.51	0.278	3.35	3.48
2006/WAS-A(ss)	6.2	11.6	7.3	0.00	0.321	6.75	3.04

Thompson was the Expos' 8th round selection in the '03 draft out of high school. He got hurt last year with a back injury and has only just recently started pitching again. Not much to talk about here.. As an A-ball pitcher, he's shown fair to good strikeout rates, but also sometimes inconsistent control. He's still very young and has plenty of room to grow. John Sickels rated him as a C+ prospect prior to the season beginning.

What we gave up:

Austin Kearns: Kearns hasn't lived up to his brilliant '02 debut, but he has been solid the last few years. At only 26, he's the kind of guy that I, were I a general manager, would try to collect: good on base percentage, good power, good defensive abilities, and still the potential to get better. He might never be the superstar we thought he might, but he's already a very good player. I honestly did not think the Reds would trade him--I probably would not have.

Felipe Lopez: An offense-oriented shortstop. He showed last year that he has the ability to both get on base and hit for good to excellent power for a middle infielder. The knock against Lopez is his fielding, which looks bad to (at best) average depending on which metric you use. Fielding bible actually rated him as exactly average last year, but it was the most generous of the popular metrics. I've been advocating Lopez as a good option for a trade for a while now. His offense is very good, and is enough to make him extremely appealing in a trade. But I want defense from my shortstop, and he wasn't able to deliver that.

Ryan Wagner: In contrast to Kearns, Wagner not only wasn't able to live up to his brilliant 2003 debut, but it appears he may have regressed. His strikeouts plummeted in 2004, and though his peripherals showed improvement last year, his ERA was an unhealthy 6.11. Finally, this year in AAA, he's been killed, will a 6.34 ERA and a bad (for him) 28/14 k/bb ratio. And no one seems to know what happened to him. I was ok with shopping him at this point, because he should still command some value given that he's only 23 (turns 24 on Saturday) and still has some time to turn it around. A change may do him good.

Analysis

What I like about the trade: The Reds needed bullpen help. This deal gives them two major-league ready relievers, one of which--Bray--has great potential to become a premier setup man or closer in the near future. Majewski may not be great, but he's a better option that Jason Standridge, as we saw just tonight. If Coffey can find his pre-June form, two more more of Weathers, Mercker, Balfour, Belisle, and Yan can find a groove, the addition of Bray, Majewski, and the previously acquired Guardado could potentially transform our bullpen from a severe liability to a modest strength of our team. That's exciting.

Another thing I like about this deal is that everyone except Clayton is young, and should be under our control for several years down the road (assuming no waiver problems with Harris).

I also like that it apparently opens up a spot for Chris Denorfia in the outfield. The Reds immediately promoted him after the deal and started him in right field. He should be a solid player, though I think his offense is better suited for center field than right field. But that's ok, as we have Griffey in center, and he hits far better than a centerfielder. Denorfia's a good man with the glove as well, so he could be a nice player for us.

Finally, this trade has the potential to improve our infield defense. If the Reds are smart, they can move Brandon Phillips to shortstop, where has has demonstrated that he can be above-average in the past. This would allow them to put Ryan Freel at second base most days, with Aurilia getting the remaining starts there when Freel needs days off or when he's subbing for other players. Freel, at least, is an above-average second baseman, which could give us two above-average defenders in our middle infield. We haven't had that since Barry Larkin was in his prime.

What I don't like: I honestly don't know what the market for relief pitching is right now. And it has to be said that the Reds' severe need for bullpen help now means that we should value such help to a greater degree than most other teams would.

But it sure looks like we overpaid, severely. As I said, I was open to shopping Lopez, as I prefer my middle infielders to be good defensively. And I thought we could largely absorb his loss on our roster, improving our defense and at least not hurting our offense too much. But despite the fact that he doesn't fit into my archetype of what I want in a middle-infielder, Lopez is an excellent hitter for a shortstop, and was on pace for about 30 runs over replacement level this year after being 45.8 over replacement level last year. And he's young and will not be a free agent for a few more years. Therefore, he should have had good value, especially to a team needing some offense.

And when you're shopping him to Jim Bowden, who you know already loves him, I would have been comfortable asking for Bray and Majewski in return. Sure, Bray looks like a stud, but he's just now breaking into the majors, and we've seen what can happen to stud relievers at that time (see Ryan Wagner). So asking for Majewski, a middle of the road middle reliever, in addition to Bray wasn't out of the question. And if Bowden balked at that, I'd try throwing in Wagner--he really does need a fresh start, and could (potentially) be as good as Bray if he got straighted out. The hope would be that this would push Bowden over the edge. I'd think he'd be close at this point.

But somehow, we offered up Kearns as well. As I said above, Austin Kearns is exactly the sort of player that I would horde as a general manager. He may not be an All-Star right now, but he still has that potential to become one. And even if he doesn't, he already has both on-base ability and power offensively, and is well above average defensive skills. And yet, what did we get for him? Royce Clayton and Brendan Harris, plus some share of the Bray/Majewski complex. Oh, and an A-ball pitcher. I think that's a really poor return on a guy like Austin Kearns. I just have to think that there would have been other teams out there that would give us more than this Kearns and Lopez. But I guess not...

Conclusion:
In the end, however, the Reds are trying to win this season. They may have given up more than they got, but do they have a better chance to win after the trade compared to beforehand? They just might. Consider the following lineup and bullpen arrangements before the trade and after the trade (I'll assume the Reds would do what I'd do and move Phillips to short. Today they didn't look to be doing that, but whatever):

Before Trade	After Trade
Lineup C Ross/LaRue 1B Hatteberg/Aurilia 2B Phillips 3B Encarnacion SS Lopez LF Dunn CF Griffey RF Kearns Bench Freel Aurilia/Hatteberg Valentin Castro Wise	Lineup C Ross/LaRue 1B Hatteberg/Aurilia 2B Freel/Aurilia 3B Encarnacion SS Phillips LF Dunn CF Griffey RF Denorfia/Freel Bench Hatteberg/Aurilia/Freel/Denorfia Clayton Valentin Castro Wise
Bullpen Guardado Coffey Mercker Weathers Yan Belisle Standridge	Bullpen Guardado Coffey Bray Majewski Mercker Weathers Belisle/Yan/Standridge

One thing is for sure. Our bullpen is vastly improved. It'll take some good fortune on the Reds' part for it to really become a strength, but we can probably say that it's roughly average now. That should take an enormous amount of pressure off of our starters, who will hopefully be able to continue to put up decent numbers. I trust Harang, Arroyo, and Ramirez to at least be effective. Milton can possibly be as well, so long as Narron watches him like a hawk once hit gets to the fifth inning. And hopefully, Claussen can come back from his injury and find the pitcher that we saw last year instead of the pitcher we had in the first half.

I think the offense absorbs the loss of Lopez pretty well, assuming that Brandon Phillips can keep on hitting--and I'm going to bet that he can. I like Freel getting more chances to play, and Aurilia has mostly been good enough.

Kearns' loss, however, is harder to handle. Denorfia should be able to hit reasonably well, and I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can do. But he will not be the middle of the order power threat the Kearns was, even after he's had a few years in the majors. Kearns was our best right-handed bat, and the only one really suitable right now for a middle of the order spot to break up Griffey and Dunn. Encarnacion might be able to be that guy, but I think this puts a lot of pressure on the kid. He's got enough problems with Narron freaking out every time he makes an error. Of course, Narron loves to bat Aurilia cleanup. Makes no sense to me, but it does take some pressure of Eddie whenever Aurilia's in the lineup.

The question in my mind, therefore, is how many runs (and by extension, wins) we lose by having Denorfia hit instead of Kearns. Here's a quick and dirty stab at it: PECOTA predicts that Denorfia, in a full season in the majors, would have a value of between 20.5 runs (75% performance) and -5.8 runs (25% performance) above replacement level this year, with a weighted mean of about 10 runs over replacement. In contrast, Kearns was predicted to generate between 30.5 runs over replacement (75%) and 5.9 runs over replacement, with a weighted mean of about 22.4 runs over replacement. So let's look at those numbers

	Kearns
Denorfia	VORPs	15.3	11.2	3.0
	10.3	-5.0	-0.9	7.3
	5.0	-10.3	-6.2	2.1
	-2.9	-18.2	-14.1	-5.9

Ok, let me explain this matrix as it's just something I fabricated. The bold-faced red numbers are the individual VORP estimates predicted by PECOTA that I mentioned above, divided by two because there's a half-season remaining. Those for Austin Kearns go across the top, and those for Denorfia go down the left. The numbers in the middle of the matrix are Denorfia's numbers minus Kearn's number. For example, if both players have a good-case second half, the Reds would only have lost about 5 runs on the season by not having Kearns. If Denorfia tanks (-2.9 VORP), but Kearns keeps on having a good case season (and he's been right in line with those good-case VORP numbers so far), on the other hand, the Reds could lose 18.2 runs by not having Kearns. 'Course, that's only this year, and says nothing of the next few years without him.

So how many runs will the new bullpen save? I'm honestly not sure, and it's far too late at night for me to try to run the numbers and make an estimate. I feel very confident that they will be worth 5 runs without any problem. But whether they'll really be worth 18.2 runs.... That might be pushing it.

Overall, I'm not crazy about this move. I'm really going to miss Kearns. But there's not much else to do than to accept that it has happened, move on, and hope to heck that the bullpen upgrade will make enough of a difference to get us into the playoffs. Go Reds.

Reds Blogger Roundtable, July '06

I was fortunate enough to receive an invitation to attend the Reds' Bloggers' Mid-Season Roundtable discussion on Monday night. There were eight participants, and each of us has been allocated one section of the chat log to post on our blogs. I got section VII.

The focal question for my section was "Where do you see the Reds in five years?" Topics discussed include several of our team's top prospects and young players, including Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Joey Votto, Austin Kearns, Brandon Phillips, and Adam Dunn. Other topics include whether Pete Rose will ever make the Hall of Fame, whether the Reds will ever move the fences back at Great American Ballpark, and why I call myself J-in-AZ.

Since this might be the first time some of you have visited my blog, I've taken the liberty of including links to some of my articles on various relevant topics within the chat log. Yes, I really am a traffic-hound. So sue me. :)

Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part I - The Cincinnati Reds Blog (Shawn)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part II - The Church of Baseball (Daedalus)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part III - Reds And Blues (Doc Scott)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part IV - Red Reporter (JD)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part V - ...And This One Belongs to the Reds (Ashlee)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VI - We Heart the Reds (Jacci)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VII - On Baseball and the Reds (JinAZ)
Reds Blogger Roundtable, Part VIII - Red Hot Mama

Shawn: Question 6 coming up (I'm trying to get you guys out of here within an hour).....
JinAZ: ty
Jacci: Ooh! I didn't know there was a 6th question
Ashlee: Bonus Round
Doc Scott: this must be the one for the DVD release
Shawn: Where do you see this team in five years? How will the Reds look in 2011?
Doc Scott: a lot different
JinAZ: I see them in steady contention year after year, much like the Twins. In Krivsky I trust. Hopefully the outfield will include three of Dunn, Kearns, Bruce, and Stubbs. :)
Doc Scott: (congratulates self)
Shawn: #1 starter = Homer Bailey
JinAZ: I hope so
Doc Scott: Kearns will get traded
Jacci: No! Kearns can never be traded!
Shawn: Bruce in CF, with Kearns at his side.
Shawn: Phillips leading off
Doc Scott: Stubbs in CF and Bruce in RF
Ashlee: I would be a happy fan to see Kearns still wearing red in 2011.
Daedalus: votto will be fun
Doc Scott: although realistically, only one of them will have a sustained big-league career
Daedalus: i bet we won't have three catchers
Shawn: I can see a World Series win come 2011.
Shawn: But I bet Jerry Narron will not manage that team
JinAZ: It'd be nice to have a 1B who could hit for power. Hopefully Votto can be that guy.
Red Hot Mama: The Reds trade Adam Dunn in the offseason after another .500 year in 2007. Despite the outcry, it turns out to be a Lee May-type deal that propels the team into a decade of dominance!
Shawn: I can see that happening, RHM
JD: I think they'll be coming off of five straight world series championships
Daedalus: ha
JD: Joining the Bengals in making Cincinnati known as "the city of champions"
Daedalus: pete rose still won't be in the hall
Jacci: I can be quite happy with that.
Jacci: With the 5 straight championships, not Pete Rose remaining hall-less
JinAZ: Do you think the Reds will ever consider some alterations to GABP's fences?
Shawn: No chance of Rose in Cooperstown. Until he dies.
Shawn: I doubt the fences will move.
Doc Scott: agreed with Shawn.
Shawn: Not for some years, at least
Ashlee: I don't think that'll happen anytime soon - lose the revenue from the seats!? No way!
Jacci: No, I'm convinced they like all the home runs
Daedalus: omg, david wright is just killing the ball here. too bad he can't play for the reds
Shawn: Is there room to move home plate back, like they did at Dodger Stadium years ago?
JinAZ: Might change the mindset, at least, of our pitchers. But I agree, it's doubtful to ever happen.
Doc Scott: I don't think GABP is the problem
Daedalus: why would you want to move it back? the HRs are great
Doc Scott: considering that it's not a hitter's park, no matter what Hal F. McCoy says
Shawn: David Wright is a monster. He's got Hall of Fame written all over him.
Shawn: Someone should wipe that off.
JinAZ: Wright's defense aint so good though. :)
JinAZ: It does allow a high number of Hr's, though overall is mostly neutral.
Doc Scott: good pitchers can pitch in that park. It's not Coors Field.
Shawn: yeah, Krivsky just needs to collect some groundball pitchers. Then we'll be fine.
Red Hot Mama: Coors Field isn't Coors Field anymore. Maybe the Reds need a humidor.
Doc Scott: Shawn, I can probably get you Jeff Gilooly's phone number, considering he's from Portland
Shawn: Brandon Webb pitches just fine in Cincy.
Daedalus: if the reds got a humidor, the balls would get soggy
Red Hot Mama: No one wants soggy balls
Shawn: I was thinking a wet cloth, Scott
JinAZ: Ahh, Brandon Webb is my dream...
JinAZ: Seeing him here in AZ can be torture. :)
Shawn: Aha, that's what the AZ is for!
Ashlee: I was thinking the same thing
JinAZ: Of course! :)
Doc Scott: who needs a wet cloth when you can break an ankle? Or deliver a WWE headbutt? Is that French dude coming to MLS?

Thanks to the other bloggers for the great time, and the invitation to your secret little meeting! I'm looking forward to the next one.

And please remember check back at this space tomorrow (hopefully) for my 2006 First Half Season Review.

Reds Prospects Making Headlines

Here we are at the season midpoint. I'm working on a look back on the first half, but I wanted to take a bit to talk about the Reds minor leagues because things are finally looking up in the Reds farm system. First, do you know who the Reds' top prospects are? Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto get all the press these days, but who else do we have? A good start is to read Doug Gray's top-10 prospect list, which includes both stats and insightful analysis for each player. Well worth the read, as is just about everything he posts on his site. Here's an excerpt:

5. Johnny Cueto - RHP - 20 years old
Johnny Cueto was a relative unknown prospect coming into this season. In Baseball Americas top 30 preseason rankings, he was nowhere to be seen. The Dominican product burst onto the season by dominating the Midwest League the first few months of the season. Cueto fired a no-hitter earlier in the season and has since gotten a promotion to Advanced A Sarasota. His first three outings have been from horrible to bad, but each start has gotten better and I am not to worried about Johnny adjusting and adapting to his new competition.

There was a similar thread over at minorleagueball.com recently asking for top-10 team prospect lists. Here are a few alternatives that posters there provided (see the link to read comments/justifications:

Havok1517's top-10:
1. Bailey
2. Bruce
3. Votto
4. Wood
5. Stubbs
6. Ward
7. Szymanski
8. Shafer
9. Guevara
10. Perez

IndyRedsFan's top-10:
1. Bailey, A
2. Bruce, A-
3. Votto, B+
4. Wood, B
5. Cueto, B
6. Dumatrait, B-
7. Denorfia, B-
8. Ward, C+
9. LeClure, C+
10. Stubbs, C+

I think the point here is that people can generally agree on the top 4 or 5 prospects in our system, but once you get into the 7-8-9 range you start to see new names. For the record, I think IndyRedsFan's list looks pretty on the mark.

And now, I wanted to run down a smattering of prospect news from the past week or so among the general baseball sites I frequent. Some (though not all) of it has been posted elsewhere, but I like to have it here too -- if for no other reason than so I can search for it later. :)

Baseball Analysts' top-75 prospects included three Reds, and I'll be you can name them:

10. Homer Bailey, sp: Reds (AA)
Bailey was not an oversight in my listing of the top pitching prospects weeks ago, I told someone after that article that Bailey wouldn't rank high for me until he showed "consistent dominance." So, upon promotion, Bailey decided to go off, and currently has a 17 inning scoreless streak going at Double-A. He has earned his status as the game's 1A pitching prospect, especially after a dominating performance in Sunday's Futures Game.

11. Jay Bruce, of: Reds (A-)
Earlier in the season, I did a study on teenage hitters in the Midwest League. Needless to say, the list of success stories was a short one; the expectation level for this group is (as a result) low. The type of season that Jay Bruce is having so far is unprecedented. Bruce is hitting for power at rates that even Prince Fielder did not at such an age. And he's doing so with a decent-enough strikeout rate. On the shortlist of people that wouldn't surprise me to be atop this list in a year.
...
56. Joey Votto, 1b: Reds (AA)
I was told a couple years ago by an industry executive that Votto would break out in 2005. It appears my information was a year early, as Votto has been fantastic this season, making Adam Dunn's non-move to 1B look genius. He should be manning the corner in Cincy by Opening Day 2008, at the latest.

The most exciting thing about this list is that two of the three are in the high minors...

Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein has been talking about Bruce both Votto:

Jay Bruce, of, Low Class A Dayton (Reds)

With the 10th, 11th and 12th picks of the 2005 draft, the Tigers, Pirates and Reds all took high school outfielders. Both Detroit's Cameron Maybin and Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen have been impressive in their full-season debuts, but Bruce has been the best of the trio. Bruce went 5-for-10 over the weekend with a double and his 13th home run of the season, raising his batting line to .320/.386/.575 (including a .416 batting average in his last 30 games). There's so much to like about Bruce: from his pro body to his pretty left-handed swing that has sent exactly half of his 104 hits for extra bases, to his plus arm and the requisite athleticism to hold his own in centerfield for now. The Reds system is still wading-pool shallow, but few organizations can match the elite-pitcher/elite-hitter combination of Homer Bailey and Bruce.

He ranks Votto as the #3 1B prospect in the majors:

3. Joey Votto, Reds
Age: 22.8 Hitting: .322/.396/.579 in 84 G (AA)

What a difference a year makes. Votto put himself on the map in 2004 when he hit .302/.419/.486 for Low Class A Dayton and then put up a .945 OPS in 24 Carolina games. Last year, he almost took himself off the map with a rough year in the Florida State League, where he got off to a bad start and then tinkered with his mechanics, losing both timing and fluidity in his stroke. The Reds worked with him in the offseason on shortening his swing and improving his approach against lefthanders. The results have been phenomenal, as Votto leads the Southern League in batting and home runs (17), while sitting just two behind Jacksonville's Craig Brazell for the RBI lead. Drafted as a catcher, Votto has good hands at first base but isn't especially athletic. If the offensive outburst continues, Votto could be in line for a look in 2007--while Scott Hatteberg is having a nice season, he doesn't represent any kind of major roadblock.

Chris Costansio of the Hardball Times rates Votto as the biggest surprise in the Southern League:

Joey Votto has had an up-and-down career in the Reds system. This is a good year for him; he is on pace to hit over 30 home runs with a .400 OBP. Only one player, Josh Phelps, has finished with comparable numbers in the Southern League during the past five years. Chattanooga is a hitter-friendly place to play, but Votto has actually hit 13 of his 19 home runs on the road in the Southern League.

I got a chance to see both Bailey and Votto in the Future's game last Sunday. Bailey looked good until he cut his finger--after that point he didn't seem willing to throw anything but a fastball, and his velocity and location were all over the place. But he was absolutely filthy during his first two batters. Really, really exciting to watch.

Votto also looked very good, though it's hard to judge a guy by two at-bats. Still, one thing I noticed that was fun: when he sets his stance, Votto glides back and downward ever so slightly in a smooth and very controlled motion. Reminds me of a left-handed version of another power-hitting first baseman, though his name escapes me. I think he plays for the Cardinals... :)

Is Jason LaRue just the victim of bad luck?

I was looking at some numbers in anticipation of a mid-season review of the Reds and noticed something really interesting about Jason LaRue. Jason's struggles have been well documented, most recently on this blog in my June 2006 Review. Through 114 at-bats, here are LaRue's numbers: 0.184 batting average, 0.293 on-base percentage, and a 0.307 slugging percentage, which makes for an even 0.600 On Base + Slugging Percentage (OPS). Pretty terrible season for him thus far, right?

Well, maybe he hasn't been swinging that badly. First, let's look at some of the graphs over at fangraphs.com. Compared to last year (and the year before for that matter), his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down this year. But even more interesting is this graph of LaRue's balls hit into play:
Compare his ground-ball, line-drive, and fly-ball percentage from this year to last year. There's almost no difference. LaRue's batted-ball types are almost identical to his solid 2005 season. Typically, when a player suffers from a dramatic slump or loss in ability, you'll see a substantial change in these numbers. In this case, nothing about what he does with the bat seems to be different. He's hitting balls the same way, he's walking at the same rate, and he's striking out at the same rate. The difference appears to be the outcome--he's just not "hitting them were they ain't."

Using PrOPS

Another way of looking at these same sorts of data is to use J.C. Bradbury's PrOPS statistic. It's my new favorite stat for offense. It's similar to defense-independent pitching stats in that it attempts to separate what the batter does with the bat itself from the fielding & luck (good and bad) with which he has to contend. What it effectively does is take the raw batting outcomes -- % walks, %strikeouts, %flyballs, %groundballs, and %line drives -- of a hitter and estimate what his OPS should be with an average amount of luck. Bradbury's work has shown that this approach has strong predictive power, and explaining roughly 80% of variation in OPS. Furthermore, individuals that perform well below or above their PrOPS one year tend to perform much closer to it the next year--just what you'd expect if this stat helping you decipher lucky performances from legitimate performances. So what does it say about Jason LaRue?

Right now, PrOPS says that LaRue's OPS should be about 0.846--compare that to his actual OPS of 0.600! That difference (0.846-0.600=0.246) is the largest difference between OPS and PrOPS among all active major league baseball players with at least LaRue's number of plate appearances this season. It's staggering. And it suggests that LaRue has been very solid at the plate despite the bad outcomes of his batted balls (his BABIP is a miserable 0.207).

Now my first thought when I saw this was that perhaps PrOPS, a fairly new statistic, just doesn't work well on Jason LaRue. But this doesn't appear to be the case. His 2005 PrOPS was 0.838, which is pretty close to his actual OPS of 0.805. Similarly, LaRue's 2004 PrOPS was 0.790, which again is pretty close to his actual 2004 OPS of 0.765. Therefore, at least in the past, LaRue has been quite predictable by the PrOPS method. So I think this conclusion--that LaRue has hit the ball far better than his traditional stats say he has this year--is pretty well supported.

The problem I have is that, living in Arizona, I don't get to see very many games. Of those I've seen in which LaRue has played, I don't recall him looking all that lost at the plate--even as he went 0-4. But I'd be very interested to hear if you folks who watch far more games than I do have seen something consistent with this view of LaRue. Has he been hitting a lot of hard hit balls right at infielders and outfielders? My guess is that if someone were to go back through all the games, they'd see that this has happened quite a lot this year compared to last year.

Other quick PrOPS (just 'cause I love this stuff)

If you're curious, other unlucky Reds according to PrOPS include Adam Dunn (0.923 OPS vs. 1.066 PrOPS), Javier Valentin (0.601 OPS vs. 0.731 PrOPS), and Ken Griffey Jr (0.828 OPS vs. 0.908 PrOPS). Happily, the only Reds who appear to have been particularly fortunate in their performance are Chris Denorfia (1.306 OPS vs. 0.651 PrOPS) and Ray Olmedo (0.826 OPS vs. 0.646 PrOPS), and neither has more than a handful of at-bats. Encouragingly, breakout players like Dave Ross (1.065 OPS vs. 1.042 PrOPS) and Brandon Phillips (0.817 OPS vs. 0.814 PrOPS) look to have improved their actual hitting, and haven't just been lucky!

Who's the second hardest-luck guy in baseball behind Jason LaRue? Barry Bonds, who currently has a very good 0.975 OPS and a terrifying 1.215 PrOPS. What happens if he starts to get lucky in the second half? Yikes.

Lucky players on other teams around the majors include Gary Matthews Jr. (0.914 OPS vs. 0.783 PrOPS), Joe Mauer (1.008 OPS vs. 0.879 PrOPS), Matt Holliday (0.973 OPS vs. 0.849 PrOPS), and Freddy Sanchez (0.931 OPS vs. 0.825 PrOPS).

The top seven (qualified) hitters in baseball this season, according to PrOPS: Albert Pujols (1.196 PrOPS), Travis Hafner (1.143 PrOPS), Jason Giambi (1.127 PrOPS), Jim Thome (1.114 PrOPS), Manny Ramirez (1.103 PrOPS), David Ortiz (1.076 PrOPS), and... our man, Adam Dunn (1.066 PrOPS).