I heard from someone who is having trouble posting comments. Blogger's been kind of weird about logins since the switchover to using google accounts, so maybe that's causing the problems?
Remember, though, that if you can't get your blogger or google account to work, you can always post using the "other" identity option. This lets you just type in your name and post that way. Hopefully that will always work. If not, let me know! I can't really do much myself, but I can always file a support claim with blogger.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Minor League Season Ends - For Real This Time
A few links of note as the minor league season has actually, really, honestly drawn to a close:
Doug Gray at RedsMinorLeagues has begun a season recap for the 2006 draftees, starting with the rather disappointing season from Drew Stubbs. I'm looking forward his series--Gray is among the best informed watchers of Reds' minor leaguers that I've encountered on the web. Excerpt from his Stubbs review:
Moving Up:
Also, in non-prospect news, Blogger has finally re-established the ability to edit the html templates again. I've gone through and done an initial adjustment, which gets us pretty much back to the state the blog was in pre-blogger update. I'm reasonably happy with where the site is now in appearance, except for the banner at the top--but I have started fiddling with some ideas in photoshop, and will hopefully have something snazzy up there soon.
Doug Gray at RedsMinorLeagues has begun a season recap for the 2006 draftees, starting with the rather disappointing season from Drew Stubbs. I'm looking forward his series--Gray is among the best informed watchers of Reds' minor leaguers that I've encountered on the web. Excerpt from his Stubbs review:
For a first round pick it would seem that Drew Stubbs layed a huge egg in Billings. There could be so many reasons for this, and whether any of them are true or not, no one really knows but Drew. Coming into the draft, scouts really questioned his ability to hit professional pitching, so one theory is that the hitting coaches at Billings were working with him and changing his swing, and it took him time to adjust it all. Another theory is that he played a long season. Prior to his year at Texas, he played in an International Tournament for Team USA. Then he played a full college season starting in February, followed up by a season in Billings that just ended earlier this week. That is a lot of baseball for one year.Similarly, Shawn at Cincinnati Reds Blog has begun a series recapping the seasons of each of our minor league teams. Thus far, he has featured the GCL Reds, the Billings Mustangs, the Dayton Dragons, and the Sarasota Reds. Excerpt from the Dayton review:
The best player who stuck around for the year was one Jay Bruce, a bright young star. Bruce is just 19, but hit .291 with 16 HR and 81 RBI against Midwest League pitching. He struggled against lefties (Bruce bats left-handed) and tired and slumped in August, but Bruce had a strong season, showing some good glovework as well as pounding 42 doubles and stealing 19 bases. He struck out 106 times while walking 44, so there is room for improvement. At his age, Bruce has a chance to be a big star.Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus has posted recaps of minor leaguers who took a step forward and a step backward. Here are his bits on Reds:
Moving Up:
In 2004, first baseman Joey Votto was really good. In 2005, Votto was pretty bad. This year, it was back to the good, as the Canadian slugger raked to the tune of .319/.408/.547 at Double-A Chattanooga while making a run at the Southern League Triple Crown.
Honorable Mention: From seemingly out of nowhere, 20-year-old righthander Johnny Cueto went 15-3 with a 3.00 ERA across the two A-level teams, striking out 143 in 138 innings. He's under six-foot, but he had scouts in Florida buzzing about a fastball that sat at 94-97 mph. Shortstop Paul Janish resurrected his prospect status by hitting .304/.371/.460 across three levels to go along with his trademark outstanding glove.
Moving Down:
Already almost 24 years old, outfielder B.J. Syzmanski showed why spending money on raw college players is a very risky business, as he hit just .239/.309/.415 for Low Class A Dayton while leading the minor leagues with 191 strikeouts.Finally, I have updated the stats on my minor-league recap, which was stupidly posted about a week early. I guess I'm just excited about our top prospects. :)
Honorable Mention: 2005 12th-round pick Adam Rosales hit .325/.388/.558 in his pro debut, but was unable to replicate that success in his first full season, batting just .250/.328/.398. Once highly regarded, Richie Gardner came back from shoulder surgery and was rocked for a 6.97 ERA in five starts at High Class A Sarasota.
Also, in non-prospect news, Blogger has finally re-established the ability to edit the html templates again. I've gone through and done an initial adjustment, which gets us pretty much back to the state the blog was in pre-blogger update. I'm reasonably happy with where the site is now in appearance, except for the banner at the top--but I have started fiddling with some ideas in photoshop, and will hopefully have something snazzy up there soon.
Monday, September 11, 2006
Does any hope remain?
Joe Sheehan posted an article today at BP handicapping the remaining contenders to the wild card. It will come as no surprise that he's favoring the Padres or the Dodgers (whoever doesn't win the NL West). What about the Reds? Well, the Reds' 2 of 3-game defeat of the Pirates this past weekend helped their cause -- especially given the Cardinals sputtering performance vs. the Diamondbacks -- but obviously things are still looking rather grim. As cited by Sheehan, BP's PECOTA-based predictions give the following likelihoods that these wild card contenders will take the crown:
A 12.6% chance of making the playoffs isn't insignificant, but it's not very compelling either. Nevertheless, the most interesting thing about this graph is that it indicates that the Reds' best chance for a post-season berth is to catch the Cardinals.
It'd be tough, but let's break down the numbers. The Cardinals have 20 games remaining to the Reds' 19. If the cards split their remaining games, they'll end the season at 85-77. For the Reds to top that record, they would have to go 15-4 (0.789). By comparison, in their best month of the season, April, the Reds went 17-8 (0.680).
So it's likely going to take one heck of a surge for the Reds to catch a 0.500-Cardinals team. It's possible, however, that the Cards could play less than 0.500 ball. None of their remaining games (Astros, Giants, Padres, and Brewers) are against complete-pushover teams. And 10 of the Reds' remaining 19 games are against either the Cubs or the Pirates.
So I'm not going to completely give up hope. Nevertheless, perhaps the more immediate concern should be whether the Reds finish above 0.500 at the end of the season. They're currently a game under. It would be a real shame to have this season go down as a losing season, especially after all the strides forward the Reds made this year. Hopefully, the Reds will get hot and salvage something from what has easily been the most enjoyable season this millennium--even if it doesn't turn out to be a playoff spot.
Division Wild Card OverallThis table leaves out the second-most likely wild-card team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, at 19%.
Padres 27.2% 36.8% 63.9%
Phillies none 14.5% 14.5%
Giants 3.4% 10.3% 13.8%
Astros 10.7% 2.4% 13.0%
Reds 8.0% 4.6% 12.6%
Marlins none 7.4% 7.4%
Braves none 2.1% 2.1%
A 12.6% chance of making the playoffs isn't insignificant, but it's not very compelling either. Nevertheless, the most interesting thing about this graph is that it indicates that the Reds' best chance for a post-season berth is to catch the Cardinals.
It'd be tough, but let's break down the numbers. The Cardinals have 20 games remaining to the Reds' 19. If the cards split their remaining games, they'll end the season at 85-77. For the Reds to top that record, they would have to go 15-4 (0.789). By comparison, in their best month of the season, April, the Reds went 17-8 (0.680).
So it's likely going to take one heck of a surge for the Reds to catch a 0.500-Cardinals team. It's possible, however, that the Cards could play less than 0.500 ball. None of their remaining games (Astros, Giants, Padres, and Brewers) are against complete-pushover teams. And 10 of the Reds' remaining 19 games are against either the Cubs or the Pirates.
So I'm not going to completely give up hope. Nevertheless, perhaps the more immediate concern should be whether the Reds finish above 0.500 at the end of the season. They're currently a game under. It would be a real shame to have this season go down as a losing season, especially after all the strides forward the Reds made this year. Hopefully, the Reds will get hot and salvage something from what has easily been the most enjoyable season this millennium--even if it doesn't turn out to be a playoff spot.
Thursday, September 07, 2006
NL Records since All-Star break
As if in response to my posting yesterday, John Dewan's Stat of the Week arrived in my e-mail box just minutes ago with the records of best NL teams in the second half, presented as if they determined playoff spots:
No surprise to see the Mets doing so well, but the Marlins clearly come in second. One of the biggest surprises are the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have played the best baseball in the Central since the All-Star break. They played well below their Pythagorean record in the first half, so it's not surprising to see them rebounding quite well right now. If there's one thing I like about the NL Central, it's the parity. Every team (except maybe the Cubs...) is decent, but no team is actually, genuinely good.
| Playoff Spot | Team | W | L | Pct |
| NL West | Los Angeles Dodgers | 28 | 23 | .549 |
| NL Central | Pittsburgh Pirates | 26 | 24 | .520 |
| NL East | New York Mets | 32 | 16 | .666 |
| Wild Card | Florida Marlins | 32 | 21 | .604 |
No surprise to see the Mets doing so well, but the Marlins clearly come in second. One of the biggest surprises are the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have played the best baseball in the Central since the All-Star break. They played well below their Pythagorean record in the first half, so it's not surprising to see them rebounding quite well right now. If there's one thing I like about the NL Central, it's the parity. Every team (except maybe the Cubs...) is decent, but no team is actually, genuinely good.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
Still around, much to come
I apologize for my lack of updates this week, and unfortunately I'm not sure if there will be very many until the weekend. I have had relatives at my house until 9pm or later every night since last Friday for my daughter's baptism. And the last of them don't leave town until Sunday morning. It's been fun to have them around, but I'm exhausted and haven't had any time for baseball. On top of all that, the kid has had a cold and isn't sleeping very well at night, plus has had to have a run to the doctor.
It's a bit frustrating, because there's so much to write about these days. The Reds are very much still in the hunt, but they will need to get hot and stay hot for much of the rest of the year to top out all these wild card teams. I'd peg the Marlins as the team to beat. Check out their games above/below graph (courtesy of Hardball Times):
They were 20 games under 0.500, and last night broke even once again. They've come very close to keeping pace with the Mets since mid/late May, probably more so than any other team in the National League (I'll have to pull the numbers on this later). Very good, very exciting young baseball team. Solid offense, good 1-3 pitching rotation (even with Willis having an "off" year with that 3.96 ERA), and good power up and down the lineup. I have to think that Joe Girardi has to be the front-runner for Manager of the Year at this point in the season.
Anyway, I have a lot on in the queue, including at the minimum:
* My August 2006 Reds Review
* Profiles on all the "new" Reds' players, especially Johnson and Kim.
* Discussion of what a few new WPA-based stats that I've been reading about lately say about Reds players.
So stay tuned!
It's a bit frustrating, because there's so much to write about these days. The Reds are very much still in the hunt, but they will need to get hot and stay hot for much of the rest of the year to top out all these wild card teams. I'd peg the Marlins as the team to beat. Check out their games above/below graph (courtesy of Hardball Times):
They were 20 games under 0.500, and last night broke even once again. They've come very close to keeping pace with the Mets since mid/late May, probably more so than any other team in the National League (I'll have to pull the numbers on this later). Very good, very exciting young baseball team. Solid offense, good 1-3 pitching rotation (even with Willis having an "off" year with that 3.96 ERA), and good power up and down the lineup. I have to think that Joe Girardi has to be the front-runner for Manager of the Year at this point in the season.Anyway, I have a lot on in the queue, including at the minimum:
* My August 2006 Reds Review
* Profiles on all the "new" Reds' players, especially Johnson and Kim.
* Discussion of what a few new WPA-based stats that I've been reading about lately say about Reds players.
So stay tuned!
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Oswalt signs for big money
The mid-market Houston Astros tried to guarantee themselves at least one win per five games vs. the Reds over the next five years yesterday by signing Roy Oswalt to a huge 5-year, $73 million contract extension that will take him through his age 34 season. Pretty good birthday present, eh?
Wow. First, a 5-year contract is a mighty impressive...and rather risky thing to give a pitcher. There's no question that Oswalt has been a superb, vastly underrated (outside of the NL Central) pitcher for a lot of years now for the Astronomicals. And he's been as durable as anyone. But pitchers have a way of encountering major injuries and/or rapidly losing effectiveness, and 5 years is a huge commitment. Furthermore, the money is amazing. Joe Sheehan has an excellent article about this in Baseball Prospectus today. Here's an excerpt:
Furthermore, money permitting, the Reds would undoubtedly love to sign a quality free agent starting pitcher this offseason. This signing will absolutely cause an adjustment of perhaps $1-2 million in the going rate for high-end starting pitchers, and this will percolate as you move down the ranks of quality free agents. It will be interesting to see what the offseason brings.
In other news...
The Reds have recently signed Jason Johnson and traded for Tim Bausher. I haven't looked at Bausher much yet, but I think the Johnson could do a great job in the #5 hole for the Reds. Potentially a very valuable pick-up. More on him soon.
Also, I'm blissfully ignoring what's happening with the Reds until I do my August recap, which will hopefully be up in the first few days of September (lots of relatives coming into town this weekend, though, so it might be a few days later than I'd like).
Wow. First, a 5-year contract is a mighty impressive...and rather risky thing to give a pitcher. There's no question that Oswalt has been a superb, vastly underrated (outside of the NL Central) pitcher for a lot of years now for the Astronomicals. And he's been as durable as anyone. But pitchers have a way of encountering major injuries and/or rapidly losing effectiveness, and 5 years is a huge commitment. Furthermore, the money is amazing. Joe Sheehan has an excellent article about this in Baseball Prospectus today. Here's an excerpt:
The numbers are staggering: an average annual value of $14.6 million per year, heights not reached by any pitcher in a deal longer than two years since the 2002 Collective Bargaining Agreement increased revenue sharing and investment taxes on payrolls. Those mechanisms have served to make contracts signed before that CBA went into effect--such as megadeals for Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton and Mike Mussina anachronisms. Those three pitchers signed contracts paying more than $14 million per season in the 1998 and 2000 offseasons. In the four offseasons under the new CBA, free-agent pitchers maxed out at about $13 million per annum, with Pedro Martinez setting the pace. The top free-agent pitchers in each year signed deals within a small range of $12 million-$13 million per season.As is the case any time salaries take a big surge forward, this is bad news for a small market team like the Reds. I'm not certain about this, but I believe that Harang may be eligible for free agency after next season, as he's currently in his 5th major league season. Even if he's ours through 2008 (like Arroyo), Harang and pitchers like Lohse will have the opportunity to go through arbitration, which awards salary based on comparable players. This signing could potentially increase the amount of cash the reds have to pay to their pitchers as early as this offseason.
...snip...snip...
Oswalt's deal dramatically raises the bar for top starting pitchers, setting the price for a top starter on the open market at $15 million per year. Given that the Astros had Oswalt's rights for 2007 for what would likely have been around $13 million (Oswalt is making $11 million in the second year of a two-year, $16.9-million deal) , you can look at this as a four-year, $60-million contract for 2008-2011.
Furthermore, money permitting, the Reds would undoubtedly love to sign a quality free agent starting pitcher this offseason. This signing will absolutely cause an adjustment of perhaps $1-2 million in the going rate for high-end starting pitchers, and this will percolate as you move down the ranks of quality free agents. It will be interesting to see what the offseason brings.
In other news...
The Reds have recently signed Jason Johnson and traded for Tim Bausher. I haven't looked at Bausher much yet, but I think the Johnson could do a great job in the #5 hole for the Reds. Potentially a very valuable pick-up. More on him soon.
Also, I'm blissfully ignoring what's happening with the Reds until I do my August recap, which will hopefully be up in the first few days of September (lots of relatives coming into town this weekend, though, so it might be a few days later than I'd like).
Minor League Season Ends
A few comments as the minor league season winds up. First, accolades:
Commentary on Stubbs and Lincecum
Reds' #1 selection Drew Stubbs wrapped up his season by hitting 0.252/0.368/0.400 for the Rookie-league Mustangs. Not exactly what we'd hoped, though his on base percentage and high walk rates are still promising. Kevin Goldstein had this to say about him recently:
...maybe this is playing "I told you so" a bit too much, but I wrote in my piece on the '06 amateur draft that I was surprised that the Reds didn't go for one of the available college pitchers instead of Stubbs. In particular, Tim Lincecum was available at the Reds pick. Well.... today, Goldstein rated Lincecum as the #5 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, saying this:
...By the way, minorleaguebaseball.com has made a huge improvement to its player stats pages. They now include a host of splits and game logs from the last 10 games. Still more to be done there, but it's a big improvement.
- Congrats to Joey Votto for being named Southern League MVP. Final stats: 0.319/0.408/0.547. Will be in AAA next season, and will almost certainly (saving an implosion) make his major league debut next year, probably late in the season.
- Congrats to Chris Valaika for his recognition as the Pioneer League MVP. Valaika is definitely raising some eyebrows this season. A 32-game hitting streak can do that. Final stats: 0.324/0.387/0.520. Promote to Dayton, baby.
- BP's Kevin Goldstein ranks Homer Bailey as the #2 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball...just barely behind the Yankees Philip Hughes. Combined stats: 138.2 IP, 2.47 ERA (1.59 at AA), 156/50 K/BB. 'Course, his season might not be over yet, even though it probably should be. I'd give him a 50:50 chance of making the rotation next year. Otherwise, he'll be in AAA.
- Jay Bruce cooled a bit from his midseason form, but he ended up with a superb first full season with Dayton: 0.291/0.355/0.516. I'm sure he'll be in be in High-A Sarasota next year as a young 20-year old.
Commentary on Stubbs and Lincecum
Reds' #1 selection Drew Stubbs wrapped up his season by hitting 0.252/0.368/0.400 for the Rookie-league Mustangs. Not exactly what we'd hoped, though his on base percentage and high walk rates are still promising. Kevin Goldstein had this to say about him recently:
I gave Stubbs neither a plus nor a minus as his scouting reports were so mixed; there are many who thought he'd dominate the Pioneer League, and many who thought he'd immediately crash and burn as a pro. A strikeout for roughly every three at-bats is a concern, but he's showing all sorts of secondary skills.Stubbs can still turn out to be something, but as a college hitter, he is already getting on the old side (22 in October) to be in rookie ball. By comparison, Joey Votto is 22 (23 in September) and just raked through AA. I'm sure that Stubbs will play in Dayton next year, hopefully with better success than the soon to be 24-year old B.J. Szymanski (0.239/0.309/0.415).
...maybe this is playing "I told you so" a bit too much, but I wrote in my piece on the '06 amateur draft that I was surprised that the Reds didn't go for one of the available college pitchers instead of Stubbs. In particular, Tim Lincecum was available at the Reds pick. Well.... today, Goldstein rated Lincecum as the #5 right-handed pitching prospect in baseball, saying this:
Lincecum is quickly becoming one of the hardest players to rank in all of minor league baseball. While it's only 26.2 innings, the raw statistics are ridiculous, and the stuff is as well; Lincecum has already touched 100 mph as a pro, and his curveball is among the best in the minors. The only issues here are some control problems in his past and his size--but at what point do we stop caring about the fact that the guy is 5-foot-10 and 160 pounds? He showed a rubber arm in college, never having injury problems despite some ridiculous pitch counts on Fridays and frequent relief appearances on Sundays. He's an aberration, and he's seemingly proven that what is normally a concern shouldn't be in this individual case. Yet, I put him fifth here--on stuff alone, he might deserve a ranking as high as No. 1.Lincecum's combined line: 31.7 innings, 1.71 ERA, 12 bb, 58(!!!) k's combined in short-season A-ball and High-A ball in the Giants' organzation. That's filthy. ... Sure would be nice to have him right now.
...By the way, minorleaguebaseball.com has made a huge improvement to its player stats pages. They now include a host of splits and game logs from the last 10 games. Still more to be done there, but it's a big improvement.
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