Valentin watch

This post will be a running tally of Javier Valentin's performance in the Carribean Series for the Puerto Rican Gigantes de Carolina. I'll try to update it daily. To my knowledge, Valentin is the only Reds player in the tournament--anyone know of a farmhand or two who might also be playing?

• Game 1 v. Mexico: 2 for 3, 2 runs, 1 rbi. Puerto Rico won 11-1 (former Red Elmer Dessens started for Mexico in this game and got creamed--6 runs, 5 earned, in 4 innings).
• Game 2 v. Venezuela: 1 for 2, 2 walks, 1 run scored. Puerto Rico won 6-3. Apparently he was involved in a strange play in which a throw hit him as he was sliding into third base, resulting in a run scoring.
• Game 3 v. Dominican Republic: 2 for 4 with a strikeout. Dominican won 12-0. Valentin accounted for 2 of the 3 Puerto Rican hits in that game.
• Game 4 v. Mexico: 0 for 3 with 2 walks. Puerto Rico won 4-2.
• Game 5 v. Venezuela: 1 for 3, but he made an error playing first base. Venezuela won 3-1.
  

Transaction Ketchup: Brian Meadows

On February 1st, the Reds signed 30-year old RHP Brian Meadows to a minor league contract and invited him to spring training camp.

Meadows originally drafted by the Florida Marlins in the 3rd round of the 1994 amateur draft out of Charles Henderson High School in Troy, Alabama. He rose fairly quickly through their system, showing good control and the ability to keep the ball in the park, even if his strikeout numbers were unimpressive. In 1998, as a consequence of the fire sale that followed the Marlins' 1997 World Championship, a 22-year old Meadows was inserted into their rotation without having thrown a pitch above AA. Predictably, he had a rough season (11-13, 5.21 ERA), and continued to be pounded for the next four years, and yet somehow managed to remain a starter--usually in the big leagues--for Florida, Kansas City, San Diego, and Pittsburgh. The Pirates finally converted him to a reliever in 2003, where he's been modestly successful, particularly in 2004 when he maintained a 3.58 ERA over 68 appearances (78 innings).

Recent stats:

Year/Tm	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/PIT	78.0	5.3	2.2	0.8	0.275	3.58	3.92	3.81	8.6	53%
2005/PIT	74.7	5.3	2.5	1.0	0.300	4.58	4.26	4.16	3.3	48%
2006/TB	69.7	4.5	1.9	1.8	0.308	5.17	5.45	5.13	3.0	40%

I mistakenly indicated in a recent post that Meadows would be in contention for the #5 starting slot. This is clearly a case of me just failing to keep up on non-Cincinnati Reds ballplayers. In truth, he hasn't started a game since 2003, and I think the Reds have enough options for the rotation that he's unlikely to get much of a look for that spot. Therefore, his best chance would probably be as the 12th man in the bullpen.

In terms of his abilities, Meadows is a control specialist. His walk rates are consistently low--and unfortunately, so is his strikeout rate. When Meadows was most effective (2004), he did a great job of keeping the ball in the park (0.8 hr/9) via a 50+% ground ball percentage. However, his ground ball rate plummeted the last two years to only 40% last year. As his ground ball percentage has decreased, so too has his effectiveness.

If he can recapture whatever has changed in his ground ball ratio, Meadows might be able to help us next year. If not, he won't. Regardless of what happens, it seems likely to me that he'll start the season at AAA-Louisville and hope for some injuries to earn him a chance at the 'pen. Even so, I'd rank him behind most of the other bullpen candidates who will be at Louisville. But he does have that advantage of being a "veteran," so who knows?

Transaction Ketchup: Reds acquire Kirk Saarloos

Continuing my coverage of the battle for the 5th spot in the Reds' rotation, today we'll look at 27 year-old RHP Kirk Saarloos, who was acquired on January 23rd from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for AA reliever David Shafer.

Saarloos was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 3rd round of the 2001 amateur draft out of Cal-State: Fullerton. He blitzed through the minor leagues and arrived in the big leagues with the Astros in 2002, only his second professional season at age 23. He was hit hard that year, but showed improvement (sort of) in a long-relief role the following year. The Astros sent him to Oakland in exchange for Chad Harville in April 2004, and while he didn't do much that year, Saarloos had a very respectable 2005 campaign for the Athletics, going 10-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 27 starts. Last year, however, he was not as good, dropping to 7-7 with a 4.75 ERA in 121 innings, split between the bullpen and the rotation. The Reds brought him over to contend for the 5th spot in the rotation, or, perhaps, to be the 12th man in the bullpen.

Recent Stats:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/HOU-AAA	7.0	7.7	1.3	5.14	0.464	15.43	9.34	9.28	-12.6	--
2004/OAK-AAA	20.1	7.6	4.0	0.45	0.294	3.54	3.50	4.22	5.1	--
2004/OAK	24.1	3.7	4.5	1.49	0.270	4.44	6.02	6.06	4.1	59%
2005/OAK	159.2	3.0	3.1	0.62	0.272	4.17	4.45	4.70	27.8	57%
2006/OAK	121.1	3.9	3.9	1.41	0.295	4.75	5.69	5.54	12.0	55%

I first saw Saarloos pitch on March 26, 2005, at a spring training game vs. the Anaheim Angels, and I was pretty impressed. Granted, it was spring training, but he kept the Angels off balance for his entire stint in that game, inducing ground ball after ground ball and out-dueling Bartolo Colon. That appears to be his M.O., as he has induced 55+% of all balls hit in play to be on the ground over the past three years thanks to an excellent sinker.

What I didn't notice about Saarloos when I saw him in person, however, were his unbelievably low strikeout rates and his concerningly high walk rates (in fact, he struck out the first two hitters he faced and walked none...yay for single-day samples). It's pretty rare to see a major league pitcher these days throw 120+ innings/yr and not only fail to break the 4 k/9 strikeout threshold, but also maintain a ~1.0 k/bb ratio--and that's exactly what Saarloos has done the past two seasons. What's really amazing is that he has still remained modestly effective during in that time.

How did he do it? Earlier this week, I linked to Sal Baxamusa's write-up on "Captain Kirk," in which he argued that the reason for Saarloos' high walk totals is not a lack of a control, but instead the consequence of him having to nibble away on every pitch given his inability to get someone out on the basis of his stuff. In 2005, this gambit seemed to work, with an FIP and PERA under 5 to go with his impressive 4.23 ERA (ground-ball pitchers often have better ERAs than their peripherals would indicate, if for no other reason than that they tend to induce a lot of ground balls, and thus get a lot of defensive errors behind them, lowering their ERA). But in 2006, either he lost his ability to nibble, or hitters learned better how to hit him, because his walk rate grew to an above-league average 3.9 bb/9, and his hr-allowed rate doubled. Along with it, his FIP skyrocketed to 5.69, with his PERA shooting to 5.54. So if anything, he may have been worse in 2006 than the spike in his ERA would indicate.

What can we expect from him? At 27 (he turns 28 in May), he should still have some years left in his arm, but I'm honestly not sure how much was there to begin with. One hope might be that exposing him to a league full of naive hitters might result in Saarloos being effective for his first year in the National League. On top of that, he'll be pitching in a weaker offensive division than he did in the AL-West. And his ground-ball tendencies bode well for success in Great American Ballpark. So maybe he'll be ok next year. It's a gamble, but it might just pay off.

---
Here's a quick look at 24 year-old RHP David Shafer:

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/CIN-A	77.0	9.8	1.9	0.94	0.261	2.92	2.99	6.19	7.7	--
2004/CIN-A+	4.3	10.5	0.0	0.00	0.388	0.00	0.87	2.39	1.7	--
2005/CIN-A+	13.7	11.8	1.3	0.00	0.280	0.00	1.01	2.92	7.3	19%
2005/CIN-AA	39.7	9.3	5.4	0.68	0.264	4.08	3.93	5.94	1.1	49%
2006/CIN-AA	49.7	9.4	2.9	0.36	0.265	2.36	2.60	4.16	10.9	43%

Shafer was a late draft pick, but has performed well at every level he has pitched. His minor league numbers show high strikeout rates, low walk rates, and low hr-allowed rates--in short, everything you could hope for in a reliever. He was 24 last year, and therefore was slightly old for AA, so I'm not going to get too worked up about losing him. But he is the kind of guy who could come up to the big leagues a year from now and be a productive guy out of the bullpen. Nevertheless, given that Saarloos could turn out to be a steadying force at the end of the rotation--and he might just be--I think Shafer was a reasonable price to pay for him.

Transaction Ketchup: Reds acquire Jeff Keppinger

On January 11th, the Reds acquired 26-year old 2B/3B/OF Jeff Keppinger from the Royals in exchange for A-ball reliever Russ Haltiwanger and, effectively given that he was claimed a few days later by the Blue Jays, Ray Olmedo.

Keppinger was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 4th round of the 2001 draft out of the University of Georgia. As would be expected for a good college player, Keppinger rose quickly through the minors and made his major league debut for the Mets in 2004 (he arrived in the Kris Benson trade that year). For some reason, however, Keppinger hasn't yet been able to stick in the major leagues despite strong performances in AAA the last few years.


Recent stats:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	EqA	VORP	PrOPS
2004/NYM-AA	54	4%	11%	0.0%	2	67%	0.426	0.468	0.894	0.309	0.288	3.9	---
2004/PIT-AA	352	5%	8%	0.3%	10	63%	0.384	0.409	0.793	0.275	0.262	16.1	---
2004/NYM-AAA	24	8%	17%	0.0%	0	---	0.458	0.368	0.826	0.298	0.306	1.4	---
2004/NYM	123	6%	5%	2.4%	2	67%	0.317	0.379	0.696	0.237	0.244	2.2	0.771
2005/NYM-AAA	273	5%	6%	1.1%	5	83%	0.377	0.455	0.832	0.283	0.290	25.4	---
2006/NYM-AAA	354	6%	8%	0.6%	0	0%	0.353	0.359	0.712	0.249	0.253	12.5	---
2006/KC-AAA	140	6%	9%	1.4%	0	---	0.407	0.465	0.872	0.299	0.291	13.4	---
2006/KC	65	9%	8%	3.1%	0	---	0.323	0.400	0.723	0.245	0.259	0.0	0.826

Keppinger showed good power in college, including a gaudy 0.389/0.480/0.691 line his final year. That power has been much reduced since he moved to wooden bats, but there's no question that he appears to be a capable hitter. He routinely has posted 0.370-0.410 OBP's throughout his minor league career. His minor league k/bb ratio is a very impressive 125/163--38 more walks than strikeouts. That will make Jerry Narron happy.

I like him too. He has been a high-average hitter in the minors, but he usually has walked at a decent clip as well, which puts his OBP in a good place. He has slugged anywhere from 0.350 to 0.450 in the minors, which isn't great...though if he could pull off an 0.370 OBP and an 0.450 SLG off the bench, he'd be a heck of a pickup. Heck, even a 0.350 OBP / 0.400 SLG can be a valuable guy to have around, especially if he has the bat control to get the bat on the ball in key situations (and apparently, he does).

Defensively, he seems fairly average. Minorleaguesplits.com rates him as -5 plays/year at 2B last year (slightly below average), but above average at 3B and left field. Baseball Prospectus' defensive numbers are similarly average. So he's not going to replace Juan Castro as the defensive specialist on the team, though he shouldn't be a liability either.

As I see it, the primary knock against Kippenger is his age. He'll turn 27 in late April, which means that this and next year should be his peak. And, unless there are multiple injuries, it's very unlikely that he will start. The Reds already have three excellent players at the positions he can play (Phillips, Encarnacion, and Dunn). Furthermore, he will also have to contend with supersub Ryan Freel whenever there is an opening.

And that's assuming that he makes the club at all, which is far from guaranteed. In fact, I'm having a hard time figuring out where he might fit in. By my figures, 12 pitchers plus the eight regular position players fill 20 spots on the active roster, leaving five for bench players. Javier Valentin plus Chad "what-is-the-point-of-me" Moeller leaves three spots. Add Freel (I'm assuming Denorfia will be in center or right, depending on what they do with Griffey), Conine, and Juan Castro, and there's no more room, even for someone like Josh Hamilton...who you'd think would at least get a shot to make the team, right? ::sigh:: You have to wonder if Krivsky is almost hoping for an injury.

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Finally, let's look at who we lost:

Ray Olmedo

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	EqA	VORP	PrOPS
2004/CIN-AAA	319	13%	7%	0.6%	2	40%	0.342	0.398	0.740	0.253	0.240	2.6	---
2004/CIN	2	0%	50%	0.0%	0	####	0.500	0.000	0.500	0.225	0.287	0.0	0.000
2005/CIN-AAA	60	18%	2%	1.7%	2	50%	0.300	0.379	0.679	0.230	0.214	-1.2	---
2005/CIN	85	26%	7%	1.2%	4	100%	0.282	0.338	0.620	0.211	0.232	-1.1	0.691
2006/CIN-AAA	422	17%	8%	0.7%	17	74%	0.344	0.373	0.717	0.248	0.257	16.2	---
2006/CIN	48	8%	8%	2.1%	1	100%	0.271	0.318	0.589	0.201	0.200	-1.6	0.718

I've always been a fan of the 25-year old Olmedo. He's an outstanding fielder (minorleaguesplits.com had him at +32 plays/yr at shortstop last season in Louisville) and a decent little hitter, who always seemed to get big hits despite having lower overall numbers (his WPA last season was 0.25, tied for 6th among Reds' hitters, despite only getting 48 plate appearances and sporting an 0.589 OPS). But he's unlikely to be anything more than a Juan Castro-type in the big leagues...though if he's already as good as the aging Castro (and he probably is), one has to wonder why we have Castro and his $1 million salary on this team. But whatever.

The shuttling back and forth between Louisville and Cincinnati over the past three years expired his option years. I think it's a shame to lose the kid for nothing, but I also don't see this as something that will have much of an impact on the Reds' team performance, now or in the future. I also think that Kippenger has a better chance of helping the Reds, now and a few years down the road. If we can find some room for him.

Russ Haltiwanger

Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP
2006/CIN-A	82.1	8.6	4.9	1.10	0.269	4.15	4.53
2006/CIN-A+	4.0	4.5	9.0	2.25	0.000	2.25	8.45

I know absolutely nothing about this kid. He was the 29th-round selection in the 2005 draft, and apparently has good stuff (8.6 k/9 in Sarasota) but dreadful control (4.9 bb/9). Nevertheless, players pitching as 22-year olds in relief at low-A Dayton are typically not considered significant prospects, so I'm not worried about this one.

Transaction Ketchup: Victor Santos

On January 8th, the Reds announced a list of players who had signed minor league deals and would be invited to the major league training camp. One of these non-roster invitees stood out. The reason? He'd started 71 games over the past three years: 30-year old RHP Victor Santos.

Recent stats:

Year/Tm	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2004/MIL	154.0	6.7	3.3	1.1	0.310	4.97	4.47	4.35	1.4	41%
2005/MIL	141.7	5.7	3.8	1.3	0.285	4.57	5.16	5.10	1.7	43%
2006/PIT	115.3	6.3	3.3	1.2	0.354	5.70	4.80	4.46	-2.0	45%

Santos has been almost exactly league after in his both his walk and strikeout rates over the past several years, with above-average hr-allowed rates in both Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. His ERA last season is scary, but his peripherals, FIP, PERA and BABIP (0.354) all indicate that he was fairly unlucky and actually produced at a level that was better than his '05 campaign. Even so, an ERA in the 4.5-5.1 range (average around 4.7-4.8) seems to be a good estimate of what we can expect from him. But he should be quite capable of producing at that level as long as his age doesn't catch up with him prematurely (he won't turn 31 until October).

The question is whether that is good enough for the #5 spot in the Reds' rotation. We certainly might hope for more, but given that half of all Reds pitchers who received 10 or more starts last year had ERAs over five, a 4.8 ERA pitcher is nothing to dismiss out of hand.

Competition for the Reds' rotation next year will be interesting. Harang is clearly the ace, and I think Arroyo and Lohse will both be respectable enough (4.2-4.5 ERAish). Milton is still a disaster (at least after the second time through the lineup), though the Reds seem committed to running him out there every fifth day. The #5 spot, however, is currently a complete free-for-all. By my count, there are at least six pitchers in the running: Elizardo Ramirez, Matt Belisle, Bobby Livingston, Santos, and most recently, Kirk Saarloos and Brian Meadows. And, on top of that, Homer Bailey might also be in the mix...and probably is better right now than any of those guys.

Once I get caught up on the transactions--and I'm devoting the weekend to doing so--I'm going to sit down and try to hammer out a recommendation from that list of pitchers. ... needless to say, there's no sure bet, though some are better than others.

Javier Valentin in playoffs

Javier "The Latin Love Machine" Valentin is playing in the Carribean Series this weekend for the Carolina Giants of Puerto Rico, who are hosting the round-robin tournament. According to Derek Jacques at Baseball Prospectus, Valentin has been pushed into infield duty by the catching tandem of Jose and Yadier Molina. I imagine that means he's playing first, though I guess he could be at third base as well (edit: jhelfgott [see below] has Ray Navarrete playing third for the Gigantes, so that would mean that Javy's the first baseman). I'll see if I can find some boxscores as the week progresses.

Edit: ESPN.com does have a scoreboard on its website for the series. Hopefully that will include box scores and writeups as well. The first game started 24 minutes ago, though no updates yet.

Edit2: One more thing. jhelfgott has a preview of the series, and hopefully some running commentary, on his blog, Global Baseball. He's been working on an upcoming book about international baseball since last summer and has used his blog (intermittently) to chronicle his work.

Edit3: Sorry about all the edits.

Transaction ketchup: Reds trade for Jeff Conine

On December 21st, the Reds traded for 40-year old 1B/OF Jeff Conine, sending Javon Moran and Brad Key to the Phillies and taking on Conine's $2 million contract.

Jeff Conine was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 58th round of the 1987 amateur draft out of UCLA. He arrived in the big leagues in only his third professional season in 1990, but didn't stick in the majors until he was chosen as the 22nd pick in the 1992 expansion draft by the Florida Marlins in what might have been the best selection of that draft. He immediately became a regular for the Marlins, coming in third in the 1993 rookie of the year voting and becoming an outstanding player in 1994 (0.319/0.373/0.525) and 1995 (0.302/0.379/0.520). Unfortunately, his offense seemed to have tapered off by 1997 (he was already 31), and the Marlins traded him to back to the Royals for someone named Blaine Mull in the offseason following Florida's World Series victory over the Cleveland Indians.

Since then, Conine has managed to maintain regular work with both the Baltimore Orioles and the Florida Marlins, to whom he returned in 2003 and yet again won a World Series (apparently he "knows how to win"). Throughout his 30's, Conine has been a consistent, durable, and generally respectable hitter (though certainly sub-average for his high-offense positions), keeping his OPS in the upper 700's most years. Last year, however, he may have finally begun to show his age.

Recent stats:

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	EqA	VORP	PrOPS
2004/FLO	577	14%	8%	2.4%	5	50%	0.340	0.432	0.772	0.261	0.269	10.3	0.780
2005/FLO	382	15%	10%	0.8%	2	100%	0.374	0.403	0.777	0.269	0.286	15.5	0.769
2006/BAL	431	12%	8%	2.1%	3	60%	0.325	0.401	0.726	0.246	0.258	-1.7	0.754
2006/PHI	107	11%	5%	0.9%	0	---	0.327	0.390	0.717	0.245	0.249	0.3	0.715

Long gone are the days when one could reasonably expect Conine to carry a SLG in the 0.450-0.525 range (the last time was 2003, at age 37). As of a few years ago, he was still capable of getting on base at a decent clip--and if he does that, he can still be valuable--but last year's performance has to make you concerned. PrOPS was kinder to him than his scorebook performance, but still, last year was arguably the worst of his career (lows in OPS, SLG, & GPA). He doesn't strike out terribly often, which I'm sure will please Wayne and Jerry, but last year that was probably his main offensive virtue...which really isn't enough.

Conine is going to turn 41 next June, which puts him at least three years older than anyone else on the Reds' squad. Hopefully he'll pull a Julio Franco on us and rediscover something in his 40's that will make him valuable again. ... But that doesn't happen very often. He'll need to rebound to at least his 2005 form to be a useful player. Otherwise, there is absolutely no point in carrying him on the roster beyond his veteran presence.

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Let's take a very quick look at who we lost in that trade:

Javon Moran

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA
2004/PHI-A	459	17%	5%	0.4%	39	70%	0.340	0.385	0.725	0.249
2004/CIN-A	105	14%	10%	0.0%	11	79%	0.448	0.404	0.852	0.303
2005/CIN-A+	230	14%	6%	0.9%	13	65%	0.378	0.395	0.773	0.269
2005/CIN-AA	88	24%	6%	0.0%	7	64%	0.341	0.386	0.727	0.250
2006/CIN-A+	46	11%	4%	0.0%	4	50%	0.413	0.419	0.832	0.291
2006/CIN-AA	265	10%	4%	0.4%	16	70%	0.355	0.400	0.755	0.260

Moran was a 5th-round selection in the 2003 draft out of Auburn University. At age 23, he showed good improvement at AA last year. He apparently has good speed, a batting average-heavy OBP, but very weak power for a guy who is playing primarily as a corner outfielder. I wouldn't be surprised to see him make it to The Show some day, but I'd be surprised if he's able to stick as a regular. I'm ok with losing him, though I can see him being a sleeper.

Brad Key

Year/Team	PA	%K	%BB	%HR	SB	SB%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA
2004/CIN-Rk	294	23%	9%	2.0%	3	100%	0.316	0.379	0.695	0.237
2005/CIN-A	274	28%	6%	2.2%	0	---	0.285	0.328	0.613	0.210
2006/CIN-A	119	21%	9%	0.8%	0	---	0.303	0.318	0.621	0.216
2005/CIN-A+	18	22%	11%	0.0%	0	---	0.278	0.250	0.528	0.188

Key was the Reds' 48th round selection in the 2004 amateur draft. They have promoted him fairly aggressively thus far in his career, but, perhaps as a result of this, he has yet to hit worth a lick. His walk rates are pretty decent, and he's shown a little bit of power at times, but his ability to make contact with the ball on a regular basis seems very weak thus far.