September/October Reds Review

Final 2006 Record and Stats
Overall Record: 80-82 (.494; 3.5 games behind the Cardinals, 2 games behind the Astros)
Series Record: 23-18-11
Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (0.469)
Runs Scored: 749 (4.6 r/g; 9th in the league)
Runs Allowed: 801 (4.9 r/g; 10th in the league)

September/October Record and Stats
Overall Record: 13-15 (0.464)
Series Record: 3-6-o
Pythagorean Record: 11-17
Runs Scored: 91 (3.3 r/g)
Runs Allowed: 114 (4.1 r/g)

Even though the Reds came up short, I had planned to make this an upbeat final monthly review. But after looking at these numbers, all I can do is ask "what could have been?" With only four more wins on the season, the Reds could have, at the minimum, forced the Cardinals to a single-game playoff for the division championship. It would have taken a 17-11 month, but the Reds had one element in line to accomplish just that: quality pitching. While the starting pitching after Arroyo and Harang was shaky, Wayne Krivsky's refurbished bullpen finally came through, with Schoeneweis, Weathers, Majewski, Belisle, Coffey, and Johnson all sporting ERA's below the 3.2 mark. Overall, the 4.1 runs allowed per game mark was easily the best of the season by the Reds' staff, more than 0.7 r/g better than the next best month (May, at 4.8 r/g allowed). If there was ever a time for the Reds' offense to take advantage of some solid pitching, this was the time.

But the offense, which had been the strength of the ballclub all season long, just vanished. Poof, and like that, it was gone. 3.3 runs per game was easily the worst total of the year, and was a full 1.4 r/g lower than the previous month of August -- which had already been a weak offensive month by the Reds' standards. And to further help illustrate how absolutely horrible 3.3 runs/g score is, the worst offensive ballclub in the major leagues in 2006, the Pittsburgh Pirates (691 runs scored), averaged 4.3 runs/g on the season. This is still a full run per game below that mark.

With a collapse this big, there's plenty of blame to go around. The following hitters had OPS's above 0.700 with 40 or more at bats:
Rich Aurilia
Chris Denorfia
Todd Hollandsworth
They were ok, or even reasonably good. But that leaves a lot of players who were not good.
Between 0.600 and 0.700 OPS:
David Ross
Ryan Freel
Below 0.600(!!):
Adam Dunn
Scott Hatteberg
Edwin Encarnacion
Brandon Phillips
Those latter four guys absolutely killed us this month, and are all guys that this team absolutely relied on all season long to be productive offensively. On top of that, Ken Griffey only had 15 plate appearances due to an injured big toe. It was an absolute meltdown. The problem was not that the Reds couldn't "manufacture" runs. It wasn't that they didn't execute good "situational hitting." It wasn't even that manager Jerry Narron made a series very questionable decisions during games. The problem with the Reds in September--and what ultimately cost them a winning season and a playoff berth--was that, with the notable exception of Rich Aurilia, all of their everyday starters just stopped hitting. Period.

That will be the most painful thing for me to think about during the offseason. The pitching was there for the Reds to win in September and be playing against the Padres right now. If the Reds would have scored 4.9 r/g, which is what they had averaged on the year prior to September, Pythagorean projections predict that the Reds would have gone 17-11 on the month--precisely what they needed in order to, at worst, force the Cardinals into a 163rd game single-game playoff. This team was capable of winning this year, but the offense -- not the pitching -- let them down. I never would have thought I'd be writing that in my final monthly review of the season.

Statistical Hitter of the Month: Rich Aurilia, 0.344 AVG, 0.385 OBP, 0.511 SLG, 4 HR, 5.5 VORP in September/October
Honorable Mentions: Chris Denorfia, Norris Hopper

In a month that all of the other Reds' starters were either hurt or massively under performing, Aurilia put a great cap on what was easily the second best season of his career. His final numbers on the season--0.300 AVG, 0.349 OBP, 0.518 SLG--are massively higher than I expected at the season's start, and he served as an anchor for the Reds all season long. At 35 years old, I'm honestly not sure what we can expect of him next year. But if he's amenable to it (and he should be), I'd be more than happy to have him back. At worst, he should be an above average offensive threat vs. lefthanders, and at best, he may be in line for another year like 2005. But in 2006, Rich Aurilia played four positions, led the team in VORP, and has a very legitimate argument to earn the Reds' MVP Award on the season. Amazing, and very well done.

Impact Hitter of the Month: Rich Aurilia, 9 runs scored, 17 RBI, 45% Win Probability Added in September/October
Runners up: Jason LaRue, Ken Griffey Jr.

I don't like to give both awards to the same player in these reports, as I like to use them to highlight different contributions to the team each month. Unfortunately, no one else even showed up. Denorfia had a decent offensive month in part-time play, but he didn't come through in the big moments--especially early in the month--as evidenced by his -5.9% WPA. Anyone else who played well did so in a minimal number of appearances. Just a very disappointing month for this Reds' team. I honestly think they could stand to add some offense in the offseason, and that's sad given where we started the season. If only we still had Austin Kearns.

Statistical Pitcher of the Month: Bronson Arroyo, 51.3 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 0.35 HR/9, 13.0 VORP in September/October
Honorable Mentions: Aaron Harang, Todd Coffey

For the third time this season, Bronson Arroyo won my Statistical Pitcher award. He did it with a month that was remarkably similar to his month of May -- fairly average K and BB rates, but extremely low HR-allowed. I always tend to distrust very low HR-allowed numbers, especially for a guy who also had months when he allowed over 2 HR/9. But in Arroyo's case, given that his breaking ball is such a key component of his success, I think it's a meaningful thing to look at. When he's not throwing well, he tends to have trouble locating his breaking ball and tends to leave a fair number of them hanging in the middle of the zone. And they get hammered for long flies. But when he's throwing well, he's spotting it on the corners and able to throw it for strikes whenever he needs to.

I'll have more to say about Arroyo in a later post, but the guy had a remarkable season--possibly his career year, and quite possibly (likely?) the Reds' MVP. The Reds haven't had a 1-2 in their starting rotation like Arroyo and Harang (or is it Harang and Arroyo?) since the Rijo/Browning/Jackson days of that '90 team. I don't think we can expect Arroyo to be as good next year as he was this year, but he should be very dependable in our rotation. If we can get another cog in there on the level of an Arroyo, plus another hitter in our lineup, and at least one outstanding reliever... folks, I tell ya what, we'd have a legitimate playoff team here.

Impact Pitcher of the Month: David Weathers, 11 IP, 0.82 ERA, 2 Saves, 1 Hold in August
Honorable Mentions: Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang

For the second consecutive month, David Weathers was the cornerstone of the Reds' bullpen. Largely written off after a difficult first half, Weathers stepped up as Eddie Guardado and Gary Majewski stepped down. His ERA was spectacular, and by the end of the season he had regained his position as the team closer. All three of Weathers' peripherals slipped substantially during the month, but he was fortunate enough to be sufficiently hit-lucky (0.138 BABIP) to remain extraordinarily effective. Whatever the reason for his success, Weathers contributed the highest WPA on the team for the second consecutive month and is an easy pick for impact pitcher of the month.

Reds September/October Hitting Statistics

Player	PA	PA/K	PA/BB	PA/HR	SB/%	OBP	SLG	OPS	GPA	VORP	WPA%
Adam Dunn	103	35.0%	19.4%	1.9%	2/100%	0.333	0.265	0.598	0.216	-2.4	-76.0%
Rich Aurilia	96	13.5%	6.3%	4.2%	2/100%	0.385	0.511	0.896	0.301	5.5	45.0%
Encarnacion	94	17.0%	10.6%	1.1%	5/100%	0.299	0.286	0.585	0.206	-5.1	-17.0%
Phillips	92	23.9%	5.4%	2.2%	3/100%	0.204	0.253	0.457	0.155	-7.7	-61.0%
Hatteberg	83	4.8%	18.1%	0.0%	1/100%	0.349	0.235	0.584	0.216	-6.3	-56.0%
Ryan Freel	61	26.2%	13.1%	1.6%	6/86%	0.311	0.302	0.613	0.215	-0.1	-23.0%
David Ross	61	36.1%	11.5%	4.9%	0/0%	0.281	0.389	0.670	0.224	-1.9	-52.0%
Chris Denorfia	59	18.6%	8.5%	1.7%	1/100%	0.407	0.463	0.870	0.299	---	-5.9%
Hollandsworth	46	21.7%	6.5%	2.2%	0/0%	0.326	0.465	0.791	0.263	1.4	-11.0%
Norris Hopper	42	9.5%	14.3%	2.4%	2/50%	0.442	0.472	0.914	0.317	3.6	10.0%
Royce Clayton	38	18.4%	10.5%	0.0%	1/50%	0.300	0.324	0.624	0.216	---	3.0%
Valentin	27	11.1%	3.7%	7.4%	0/0%	0.519	0.808	1.327	0.436	---	10.0%
Ray Olmedo	27	7.4%	7.4%	3.7%	0/0%	0.185	0.240	0.425	0.143	-3	12.0%
Juan Castro	25	16.0%	8.0%	0.0%	0/0%	0.360	0.391	0.751	0.260	-0.3	-32.0%
Jason LaRue	22	0.3	0.1	0.1	0/0%	0.409	0.700	1.109	0.359	---	44.0%
Dewayne Wise	21	0.0	0.0	0.0	0/0%	0.238	0.333	0.571	0.190	---	-18.0%
Ken Griffey	15	0.1	0.1	0.1	0/0%	0.133	0.286	0.419	0.131	0.3	35.0%

Reds September/October Pitching Statistics

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	ERA	FIP	VORP	WPA%
Arroyo	51.3	6.5	3.0	0.4	0.210	2.45	3.26	13.0	73.0%
Aaron Harang	47.0	7.9	0.8	1.5	0.254	3.83	3.92	10.8	63.0%
Matt Belisle	5.7	1.6	7.9	0.0	0.237	1.59	5.48	6.6	2.0%
Weathers	11.0	6.5	4.1	0.8	0.138	0.82	4.29	5.0	79.0%
Schoeneweis	8.0	9.0	4.5	0.0	0.238	0.00	2.70	4.7	34.0%
Todd Coffey	11.0	7.4	1.6	0.8	0.226	2.45	3.29	3.2	4.0%
Gary Majewski	5.7	3.2	1.6	0.0	0.373	1.59	3.02	2.7	-31.0%
Chris Michalak	14.0	3.9	4.5	1.3	0.308	3.86	5.70	1.2	-27.0%
Jason Johnson	8.7	4.1	0.0	1.0	0.312	3.12	3.77	0.8	-13.0%
Bill Bray	5.7	7.9	1.6	1.6	0.292	4.76	4.25	0.7	-8.0%
Sun-Woo Kim	6.7	5.4	0.0	4.0	0.199	5.40	7.83	0.5	0.0%
Rheal Cormier	3.0	3.0	3.0	0.0	0.385	6.00	3.53	-0.3	-16.0%
Ryan Franklin	7.7	9.4	4.7	1.2	0.317	4.70	4.37	-0.4	-19.0%
Eric Milton	11.3	4.8	1.6	2.4	0.301	5.56	6.12	-1.1	6.0%
Shackelford	2.3	15.7	7.8	3.9	0.508	11.57	7.98	-1.5	0.0%
Kyle Lohse	31	6.4	3.2	1.5	0.313	6.46	4.96	-3.0	-45.0%
Standridge	4.3	6.3	4.2	2.1	0.336	6.23	6.22	-3.2	-7.0%

Reds hire Thom Brennaman

Per Marc, the Reds have hired Thom Brennaman, son of Reds' Hall of Fame announcer Marty Brennaman, to an interesting TV/Radio assignment beginning in the 2007 season. He was signed to a four-year contract. Due to Thom's commitments with the national Fox Sports telecasts, he won't be available for all games with the Reds -- it sounds like he'll be working ~50 radio broadcasts with his dad, and about 45 games in the Reds' television booth.

That he won't be working more than about 95 games is the one thing I'm not crazy about with this deal. I've said this before, but it bears repeating, as a lot of people in the blogosphere seem pretty down on Thom: I've watched him regularly in my 5+ years living here in Arizona as he does his Diamondbacks broadcasts. I feel very confident that Thom is going to be a tremendous addition to the Reds' broadcasting teams. He is articulate, engaging, very energetic, and has excellent knowledge of the history of the game. The thing I like the most about him is that he has the ability to make any player sound like an absolute stud, just by how he says his name. He isn't afraid to comment on poor play, but he's generally a guy who will promote a team's players and highlight their best qualities. I think he'll bring a lot of positivity to the booth. And remember, this is a guy who grew up around the Big Red Machine--he is a genuine Reds' fan.

Furthermore, there is definitely something to be said to bringing a nationally recognized TV announcer -- and a good one at that -- to a small market team like the Reds. Like a lot of things that have been done since Castellini's group took over, this move brings genuine credibility to this franchise.

And, of course, it should be a lot of fun to listen to Marty and Thom talk it up next year on the radio. I'm definitely going to tune in more often than I have this season, just to hear those guys. So bravo to the Reds in their first move of the offseason -- it was a good one.

Offseason Plans

With the Reds officially being eliminated by a St. Louis win this afternoon over the Brewers, it's time to look towards the offseason. I have a number of events planned for the winter, so expect relatively frequent updates. Here's a (somewhat vague--don't want to get scooped) sampling of some of the things on my to do list:

• The September/October Reds Review (look for it mid-next week)
  
• Various Reds 2006 Season-In-Review activities.
• General investigations of baseball statistics.
• Updates to some of my previous articles.
• A really cool project that Joel and I have been working on since, oh, May....(that's what happens when two guys both have kids within a few weeks of each other).
• The Better Know a Red series, which I plan to start up again about the time pitchers and catchers report.
• And finally, as usual, I'll have analysis on all new player acquisitions this offseason.

I'm looking forward to it!

And so begins the end (of the regular season)

Last series of the year starts tonight. Here are the possible final records for the team, based on what happens in this series with the Bucs:

Sweep the Pirates: 82-80 (0.506)
Win 2 of 3: 81-81 (0.500)
Win 1 of 3: 80-82 (0.494)
Swept by Pirates: 79-83 (0.488)

Ok, now I'm trying to figure this out, so correct me if I'm wrong (update: I've modified the following AGAIN based on the comments -- thanks folks, you people rock!). For the Reds to make the playoffs, I believe that following must occur:

• The Cardinals must either:
• lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. The Reds would have a better record than the Cards in that case.
  
• or, lose all of their remaining games vs. the Brew Crew, and the Reds win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates. This will force the Cardinals to make up the previously postponed September 17th game vs. the Giants. If they lose that game, the Reds would force a single-game playoff with the Cards to determine the division champion.
• or, lose 2 of 3 of their remaining games vs. the Brewers, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. Again, this would force the make-up game, which the Cards must lose to net the Reds a single-game playoff.
  
• AND The Astros must either:
• Lose all of their remaining games, in which case the Reds must win 2 of 3 vs. the Pirates to tie them and force a one-game playoff.
  
• Lose all of their remaining games, and the Reds sweep the Pirates. This would put the Reds ahead of the 'Stros.
• or, Lose 2 of their 3 remaining games, in which case the Reds must sweep the Pirates to force a tie.
  

So, in sum, the Reds must win this final series to have any shot at the playoffs. If they sweep, they have a better chance at avoiding a single-game playoff vs. either the Astros or Cards and just winning the division outright. In any case, both the Astros and Cards have to lose their final series for the Reds to advance.

Could the Reds still be a playoff team? Sure, why not? The Reds do have the advantage of playing against the weakest team of the bunch. So go Reds, Braves, and Brewers, and boo on the Pirates, Cards, and Astros! :)

I gotta say, it sure is exciting to still have the playoffs remain a legitimate (though rather remote - BP puts the odds between 0.67% and 0.88%, though that seems rather low to me...) possibility entering the final three-game series of the year.

A trip down memory lane

Tonight, FSN Arizona is doing a rebroadcast of the May 8th, 2001 game of the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. the Cincinnati Reds. I Tivo'd it just to see why they'd be rebroadcasting a Reds game that year -- turns out it's Randy Johnson's 20-strikeout game.

Despite knowing what is going to happen, it's fun to watch this. Here are some interesting tidbits:

• Entering the game, the Reds were 16-15 and the Diamondbacks were 16-16. The Reds would finish 66-96, 5th place in the central thanks to a 100-loss season by the Pirates. The Diamondbacks, of course, would go 92-70 and eventually win the World Series on a bloop single by Luis Gonzalez off of Mariano Rivera.
• Chris Reitsma, then a rookie, was the starting pitcher. He'd pitch wonderfully, going 8 innings and allowing 7 hits, 1 run (earned), 1 bb, 2 k's. He was currently the co-player of the week, and had just been acquired from Boston in the Dante Bichette deal.
  
• Here is the Reds lineup. Apparently it was Bob Boone's salute to the "lefties can't hit Johnson" rule, although to be fair he only sat Deion Sanders and Sean Casey, as Dmitri Young and Ken Griffey Jr. were both hurt. Still, this is a pretty weak lineup. I mean who would bat Sadler and Castro 1-2, two lineup spots that demand above all else high OBP? Oh right, Bob Boone would:
• D Sadler lf
• J Castro 1B (the annoucers mentioned that this was the first time he'd started at 1B since 8th grade)
• B Larkin SS (first time in the #3 hole all season)
  
• A Ochoa RF
  
• A Boone 3B
• R Rivera CF
• P Reese 2B
• K Stinnett C
• C Reitsma P
• It sure was nice to see Barry Larkin again. He didn't get a hit, but had a great battle vs. Johnson in the 4th inning. Saw and fouled off a ton of pitches and ending up losing his bat TWICE in the same at bat trying to connect with those Johnson sliders. The first one had Larkin giving an embarrassed smile to either the Reds dugout or the Diamondbacks catcher (hard to tell). The second one soared past Ronnie Oester in the 3B coaching box. I miss him. Interesting to note that he'd already had 9 errors on the season by this point. That was his season total for the year, however, because he'd only start 15 more games that season due to injuries.
  
• Luis Gonzalez had already hit 16 home runs entering this game. Not a bad first month. He'd hit 57 that year in what was easily his best season.
  
• The Diamondbacks announcer was expressing concern that Randy had a tweak in his lower back during the first inning, as Johnson was seen stretching it a bit between batters. I guess he was ok though, as he ended up going 9 innings and striking out 20. :) In the process, he tied and then passed the Bob Gibson for 11th on the all-time strikeout list. Didn't get the win, though as the game ended up going 11 innings.
• The conclusion of the game? After the Reds scored 2 runs in the top of the 11th, Danny Graves came on to close it out. Here's the retrosheet play-by-play on that last half-inning:

• DIAMONDBACKS 11TH: GRAVES REPLACED RIEDLING (PITCHING); Bell
  singled; Gonzalez singled to left [Bell to second]; Sanders
  forced Bell (pitcher to third) [Gonzalez to second]; Grace
  doubled [Gonzalez scored, Sanders scored]; DELLUCCI BATTED FOR
  MILLER; Dellucci was walked intentionally; Colbrunn struck out;
  Counsell walked [Grace to third, Dellucci to second]; WILLIAMS
  BATTED FOR BROHAWN; Williams walked [Grace scored, Dellucci to
  third, Counsell to second]; 3 R, 3 H, 0 E, 3 LOB.  Reds 3,
  Diamondbacks 4.

• Walked in the winning run, eh? Seems eerily prophetic to Graves' 2005 season.
• Finally, there was an ad for "smellypukinghabit.com" in the rotating advertisement box behind the pitcher-batter camera in the 4th inning. What the heck? And no, it's not a registered domain, or I'd provide a link.
  

Thanks to Retrosheet for allowing me to dig around the 2001 season for a while. I should support their site a bit more by taking advantage of their brilliant database more often. Maybe this offseason...

They must be reading my blog

Just over a month since I debuted my old school Mr. Red logo (see above-right), the Cincinnati Reds have decided to follow suit. I'm all for the change, as I think old school Mr. Red is way cooler than the 80's-vintage Mr. Red. Though I can't help but feel a bit of regret, as I'm not quite as unique now.

What I want to know is whether Mr. Red, the mascot (seen below with Marge), will get the kickin' mustache next year. Surely that'd make him cooler than Gapper, no?

The Greatness of Junior

I'm sick at home today, but in between naps I managed to watch the Reds/Cubs game on TiVo. After the first inning, I quite nearly gave up on the game. But fortunately, the fact that I could barely get up off the couch, and the fact that this is the last Reds game I'll have a chance to see on TV this season kept me at it.

You can certainly say that I'm happy I did. :) It's been an exciting season, though this past month has been difficult to stomach as the Reds fell out of contention. But Griffey, on a day that Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus announced that he was done for the year, and on the final home game of the season, gave Reds fans everywhere a positive memory to last them through the offseason. In doing so, he tied Reggie Jackson for 10th place on the all-time home run list. It was magic.

I don't know what the winter will bring. Major trades are almost a given, as Krivsky gets his chance to overhaul the team in his first offseason as a general manager. It wouldn't surprise me to see Griffey leaving the team, among others. But Junior's (likely) final swing in 2006 allows me, at least, to close the book on the season with a certain feeling of peace and contentment.