Better Know a Red #25 - Phil Dumatrait

The latest addition to the rotation--and with the trade of Lohse and demotion of Belisle, the apparent #4 starter--is LHP Phil Dumatrait. Dumatrait has a rich pedigree, being the #1 selection of the Boston Red Sox in the 2000 amateur draft out of Bakersfield Junior College. Dumatrait began his career in the Gulf Coast League, and didn't pitch very much until he was finally promoted at 21 years old to Class-A Augusta, where he posted excellent numbers. A year later, in 2003, he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds along with a player to be named in exchange for Scott Williamson in the fire sale that followed the conclusion of Jim Bowden's tenure with the team.

As almost seems typical of Reds pitching prospects, Dumatrait suffered a critical injury almost immediately after he was acquired, missing the entire 2004 season with a torn rotator cuff. After his return, he spent the '05 season in AA and then arrived in Louisville midway through the '06 season. Dumatrait made his big league debut on August 2nd, allowing 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings and earning his first big league loss.

Recent Stats:

Team	Age	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	R/9	ERA	FIP	PERA	VORP	GB%
2005/CIN-A+	24	10.0	11.7	2.7	0.00	0.320	3.60	2.70	1.50	3.30	1.0	64%
2005/CIN-AA	24	127.7	7.1	4.9	0.28	0.282	4.09	3.17	3.67	4.65	13.7	54%
2006/CIN-AA	25	49.7	8.1	4.0	0.72	0.252	4.35	3.62	3.76	5.65	-1.1	43%
2006/CIN-AAA	25	87.7	6.0	3.7	1.03	0.314	5.03	4.72	4.59	5.74	-4.8	49%
2007/CIN-AAA	26	118.7	5.3	3.6	0.68	0.259	4.09	3.49	4.22	---	---	42%
2007/CIN	26	9.3	5.8	4.8	0.00	0.407	7.74	7.74	3.52	---	-2.0	27%

Despite his first rounder-pedigree, Dumatrait's numbers look decidedly ordinary. His strikeout rate was well above-average earlier in his career, but has dropped steadily as he has moved up and at AAA has been below-average (by comparison, finesse lefty Bobby Livingston struck out 5.4 batters per nine innings at AAA this season). At the same time, Dumatrait's walk rate--while it has improved--remains fairly high. The one peripheral that looks solid is his home run-allowed rate, but his ground ball rate seems to have been steadily dropping over the past three years, giving little reason to think that he'll maintain low homer rates in the majors. He has produced a nice 3.49 ERA in AAA this season. But his BABIP is a bit low, and his FIP is about 0.7 runs higher than his ERA, indicating that he may have been lucky. Furthermore, he's already 26, so he probably doesn't have a lot of development time left.

So, in short, there's unfortunately just not a lot that I see here that provides much hope for his future success at the major league level. Poor control, low strikeout rates, and average ground ball rates adds up to someone who is probably best suited as a long man in the bullpen, if he is to play int he major leagues at all. I hope I'm wrong. But if the Reds are counting on getting much production from this guy next season, they may be disappointed.

Photo by AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais

I Heart Joe Nuxhall

(I wrote this over the course of a few nights, but it never quite was finished 'til now--been a busy week...figured a late post is better than never)

This is the first year that I've been able to catch a significant number of ballgames on the radio in quite a while, thanks to a combination of being able to record games on my XM Radio for later listening, and having a lot of lab work that invites uninterrupted hours to listen to ballgames.

This week, Joe Nuxhall has been calling games in one of his rare appearances this season. And my goodness, it's been nice.

Joe was not my favorite announcer when I was a kid. He tends to allow reasonably long periods of silence when on the air, is prone to monotone delivery when not much is happening in the ballgame, and is prone to errors at times, like calling the Reds' centerfielder "Norris Harper." Or calling a Gonzalez single a home run earlier this week.

But this season, the games for which he's been behind the mike have been my favorite listening experiences of the season. Here are a couple of the reasons:

1. He's has much better skills as announcer than I remember him having. I tended to focus on his occasional slowness as a kid, but the guy can pick it up nicely when the situation calls for it. He also does a nice job of painting the scene.

2. He's a better analyst than I remembered. He understands the game in the way only a player can, of course, but he also avoids launching into the absolutes that announcers are prone to do. And that makes him better.

3. He actually calls the game. I often find that I have a hard time following the action when one of the Brennamen are calling games because they tend to focus more on what's happening in the booth--be it a trivia question, a rant, or what have you--than what is actually happening on the ball field. Joe, in contrast, focuses almost entirely on what is happening on the diamond. Furthermore, I like to have consistent reminders of who is on what base, how many outs there are, what the score is, etc, and Joe provides that with great regularity. With Marty, you're lucky to get such an update once an inning.

4. (probably most importantly) He's positive. I am so tired of hearing the other three radio announcers rag on our team. As far as Marty et al. were concerned, this season was headed down the tubes from the moment spring training began--at least, that's the impression I had listening to them. I don't need my team's announcers to tell me how bad this team is. I know their record. I want to have a reason to listen, and it certainly isn't to listen to Marty Brennaman talk about trivia or rant how bad the players are.

It's ok to identify when something bad has happened (e.g. "so-and-so-pitcher has no clue where the plate is right now," or "why is it that Coutlangus was sent down instead of Coffey?"). But the absolute disgust and guilty-until-proven-innocent approach that the three regular Reds announcers have for the vast majority of Reds players is a real disservice to the team. The problem is that baseball is a game in which players fail more often than they succeed, which means that being pessimistic about a player will usually make you look credible.

I think I saw Slyde once state that he'd like the announcers to dedicate at least one inning per game to talking about the good qualities of a Reds player. If I were Bob Castellini, I'd mandate that. Because as it is, all the regular announcers are doing is driving fans away from this Reds team.

...

So anyway, cheers to Joe for doing such a terrific job and bringing some extra enjoyment to my afternoons this week.

...

Update: I just noticed that Marty got a contract extension. Good for him, I guess. But I'm not positive that it's good for the franchise.

July 2007 Reds Review Part 4: Fielding

Here are the '07 July defensive splits. All statistics are based on THT's RZR statistics, with the process for transforming them into a "+/- plays made statistic" described here. Splits are calculated by subtracting defensive totals from June 30th from defensive totals dated July 31st.

July Zone Rating Splits
Last	Pos	Inn	BIZ	+-PiZ	+-PooZ	+-Totals
Conine	1B	104	14	-0.4	-0.3	-0.6
Hatteberg	1B	135	22	-0.3	-2.6	-2.9
Phillips	2B	230	44	2.0	4.7	6.7
Keppinger	2B	8	4	-1.3	-0.5	-1.8
Freel	3B	28	6	-2.2	2.1	0.0
Keppinger	3B	28	7	-0.8	-1.1	-1.9
Encarnacion	3B	180	51	-3.2	-2.6	-5.9
Gonzalez	SS	76	16	-1.3	5.1	3.7
Lopez	SS	84	16	1.9	-0.4	1.5
Keppinger	SS	71	23	1.2	-0.5	0.7
Castro	SS	6	1	0.3	-0.1	0.2
Hopper	LF	27	8	0.2	1.7	1.8
Dunn	LF	210	50	-1.6	-6.3	-7.9
Hamilton	CF	30	9	1.1	1.2	2.3
Hopper	CF	45	18	1.0	-1.8	-0.9
Freel	CF	165	45	-2.1	1.0	-1.0
Hopper	RF	25	7	0.9	-0.2	0.7
Griffey Jr.	RF	214	59	0.6	-3.0	-2.4

Lookin' Good:

• Brandon Phillips had another fine month, both in terms of balls hit within his zone, and (especially) balls outside his zone. He easily was to be the team's July MVP, given his offensive and defensive performances.
• Phillips' partner across the bag, Alex Gonzalez, also had a very fine month when he was available to play. Good to see, as he did nothing with his bat.
  
• While they weren't particularly outstanding, both Pedro Lopez and Jeff Keppinger did a fine job at SS. Keepinger, in particular, deserves mention, as he is not "supposed" to have adequate range to play shortstop. The data indicate that, at least in his first 71 innings this year at that position, he acquitted himself quite well, despite having an unusually high number of balls hit into his zone of responsibility. If he can play league-average defense at shortstop--and there's no guarantee that he can keep this up, of course--it would be pretty hard to make the argument that he shouldn't be our starting shortstop given Gonzalez's deficiencies at the plate.
  
• Josh Hamilton also seemed to do quite well in center field in the brief time he was out there last month. If he can be average, much less above average in center, his value goes through the roof.

Not Lookin' So Good:

• After UZR rated Eddie Encarnacion as well above average in June and early July, I'd hoped that he might have turned the corner. Despite the fact that these data overlap with those UZR data in time frame, however, they show Eddie having missed nearly 6 plays that an average third baseman would make in just a month's time. Given his struggles with the bat, this is disappointing--the reality is that Eddie may have hurt the Reds more than any other player last month. I will note, however, that we could also be seeing some differences between UZR and the Hardball Times' RZR... We'll see what UZR says next time MGL releases those data.
• Adam Dunn had an absolutely awful month, more than doubling his negative ZR on the season. Eek.
• While his performance wasn't as severely negative as the other two, Griffey continues to show really bad range, even though he remains adequate on balls hit relatively close to him.
  

July 2007 Reds Review Part 3: Pitching

In July, Reds pitchers posted a 4.80 FIP, identical to their overall performance in June. Starters led the way, posting a respectable 4.28 ERA on the month, while the relievers struggled (4.64 ERA, 4.96 FIP). Let's look at the individual performances:

Name	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	R/9	ERA	FIP
A. Harang	38.7	8.8	2.8	0.9	0.300	2.79	2.79	3.71
B. Arroyo	34.3	7.1	2.6	1.0	0.274	3.15	2.62	4.34
M. Belisle	25.7	6.3	2.5	1.4	0.393	6.65	6.30	4.73
Livingston	21.0	5.6	2.1	1.3	0.356	5.57	5.57	4.50
Weathers	14.0	5.8	2.6	0.0	0.404	3.86	3.86	3.17
M. Gosling	13.7	9.2	7.9	0.7	0.333	3.28	3.28	4.92
T. Coffey	11.3	4.8	4.0	2.4	0.390	9.56	8.76	6.89
M. Stanton	9.7	6.5	3.7	1.9	0.334	7.42	7.42	5.64
J. Burton	9.0	6.0	7.0	0.0	0.296	3.00	3.00	4.17
H. Bailey	8.7	7.2	7.2	1.0	0.320	8.28	8.28	5.47
Coutlangus	8.3	6.5	8.7	0.0	0.249	1.08	1.08	5.34
V. Santos	3.7	7.3	0.0	0.0	0.200	0.00	0.00	1.55
B. Salmon	2.3	11.7	0.0	3.9	0.333	7.83	7.83	6.21
M. McBeth	1.7	5.3	5.3	5.3	0.333	10.59	10.59	11.41

First the good...

Aaron Harang continues to just be superb. What more can you say about the guy? His strikeout rate continues to be right up there with his performance last year, while his control continues to be above average (though his walk rates were up a tad last month). Perhaps even more impressively for a fly ball pitcher (40% GB%), he keeps the ball in the park pretty darn well.

Bronson Arroyo also has a fine month in what has been a frustrating season. Although his FIP isn't as flattering as that shiny 2.62 ERA, his peripherals are all solid and very consistent with what he did last year. The main reason his FIP is ~.2 higher than it was last season is that he managed to hit four batters last month (he only hit 5 all of last year). His blowup on August 1st was disappointing following such a strong July, though it is worth noting that Arroyo was coming of a 123 pitch performance in Chicago, his second highest total of the year. As we've discussed before, Arroyo has tended to show a substantial carry-over effect into the next start as his pitch count rises.

And Weathers continued to make a modest case for team MVP. He wasn't as much of a stopper this month as he had been previously, but his control continues to be excellent compared to his career norms, and he didn't allow a home run all month--and he's only allowed two all year. I've been really skeptical of his performance this season because it's just be so different from what he's done for most of his career. But there's no question that he's been excellent, if not a god-send. Can you imagine the Reds' bullpen without him?

Lucky/Unlucky Performances...

One of the big stories in July was the emergence of Jared Burton as a reliever out of the bullpen. It's great to see one of our young guys having success in the major leagues, and receiving the confidence of management. This sort of month can do wonders for a kid's confidence. ... And hopefully that will translate into better peripherals moving forward, because his strikeout rate was fairly unimpressive, while his walk rate was a disaster. The only reason that his FIP was as low as it was in July was the fact that he didn't allow a home run, and while his 48% GB rate is fine, it's not enough to avoid home runs for long. In short, the kid got a bit lucky that month, and unless his performance improves--which it absolutely could--he's unlikely to keep getting the results he has.

Pretty much everything I wrote for Burton also applies to Jon Coutlangus, though Coutlangus has a history of avoiding home runs...though his 45% GB rate this season isn't particularly reflective of that.

On the more positive side (depending on one's perspective), Belisle and Livingston seem to have pitched better than their ERA indicated. In both cases, their walk rates and strikeout rates are right about what you'd expect from them, given their past history. They did allow a rather high rate of home runs, but if they can reduce the number of fat pitches down the middle of the plate by a few pitches per start, they can be reasonably effective throwing as they did. They just got a bit unlucky with their hits, as their high BABIP's indicate.

Michael Gosling continues to have one of the more bizarre seasons I've seen. As of last night, he'd struck out 23 batters in 20.7 innings, for a rate of 10 k/9. But he'd also walked 19, for a rate of 8.2 bb/9! Now just looking at that sample, one might think that he's Nuke LaLoosh incarnate--a fireballer with terrible control. The thing is, his minor league career k-rate is just 6.4 k/9, and in AAA (78 IP) this year, he's posted a rate of 7.5 k/9. Meanwhile, his '07 walk rate in AAA is 2.7 bb/9. Clearly, he doesn't have the stuff to keep up this pace, so one would hope that he can get his his walk rate back under control...

Disasters...

Todd Coffey. In April, his peripherals indicated that he was throwing the ball fine. In May, he looked awful, despite a decent ERA. In June, it looked liked he'd finally turned the corner. But my goodness...it's hard to find a pitching line worse than the numbers he put up in July. I almost wonder if he has a hidden injury..

Mike Stanton wasn't as bad as Coffey, but he was still pretty bad. I've been a modest defender of the Stanton signing, and his performance this season. He wasn't very good early on, but he had been solid if not good for several months coming into July. I don't know what happened to his control, but he walked a lot of batters and allowed a ridiculous number of home runs for how many innings he pitched.

And then there's Homer Bailey. I have to wonder if his groin had healed sufficiently for him to be pitching any time within his call-up. The fact that he's on the DL with it now, and that he was "feeling it" in his shoulder certainly doesn't indicate that he was healthy... Hopefully he can come back from that injury completely healthy before the end of the year, as I'd like to see him have a little success in the majors before the season is up--but not if he can't come back 100%. If the Reds are going to contend next year, they're going to need a good year from this kid.

Coming up next...July defensive splits!

Photos by AP/David Kohl (Harang) and AP/Tony Tribble (Belisle)

July 2007 Reds Review Part 2: Hitting

After scoring a season high 4.8 r/g in June (6th in the league), the Reds' offense declined fairly dramatically in July, scoring just 4.4 r/g (11th in league). The primary cause seemed to be a dramatic decline in power, falling from a 0.452 SLG in June to just 0.389 in July (14th in NL).

To try to understand what happened, let's look at the Reds' stats on the month:

Name	PA	%K	%BB	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS	BIPaOPS	wOBA	SBRns	RC
B. Phillips	120	16%	5%	0.330	0.310	0.350	0.504	0.195	0.854	0.816	0.363	-0.2	17
A. Dunn	109	26%	17%	0.298	0.239	0.376	0.455	0.216	0.831	0.831	0.360	0.2	16
K. Griffey	111	15%	21%	0.209	0.205	0.369	0.375	0.170	0.744	0.874	0.303	0.7	15
Hatteberg	76	9%	18%	0.370	0.339	0.461	0.468	0.129	0.928	0.823	0.389	0.0	14
R. Freel	103	18%	3%	0.293	0.242	0.301	0.326	0.084	0.627	0.643	0.285	0.3	10
Keppinger	55	4%	7%	0.319	0.320	0.382	0.500	0.180	0.882	0.855	0.384	0.0	10
D. Ross	72	25%	10%	0.273	0.231	0.306	0.446	0.215	0.752	0.792	0.315	0.0	8
Encarnacion	86	20%	8%	0.259	0.221	0.302	0.312	0.091	0.614	0.679	0.282	0.2	8
J. Conine	54	9%	9%	0.256	0.250	0.315	0.375	0.125	0.690	0.759	0.305	0.2	6
N. Hopper	47	15%	4%	0.368	0.311	0.340	0.356	0.044	0.696	0.589	0.313	-0.5	5
J. Hamilton	16	31%	6%	0.500	0.357	0.438	0.643	0.286	1.080	0.870	0.460	0.0	4
J. Valentin	43	19%	0%	0.294	0.238	0.256	0.286	0.048	0.542	0.557	0.243	0.0	3
A. Gonzalez	35	31%	6%	0.318	0.212	0.257	0.303	0.091	0.560	0.542	0.250	0.0	2
P. Lopez	40	15%	3%	0.219	0.184	0.225	0.237	0.053	0.462	0.602	0.211	0.0	2
J. Castro	6	0%	17%	0.400	0.400	0.500	0.400	0.000	0.900	0.724	0.420	0.0	1

Ok, first, the good:

Brandon Phillips had a fantastic month with his bat. Thanks to a high batting average, which was aided by a mildly high BABIP, and a return of a modest walk rate, he posted his first 0.350+ OBP month of the year. At the same time, he easily led the team with six home runs and 57 total bases, posting a fine 0.363 wOBA--outstanding performance for a middle infielder.

Scott Hatteberg was machine, though much of his on-base success (0.461) can be explained by his unusually high BABIP. Nevertheless, he continues to be of fine value on more active side of the Reds' 1B platoon. ... And therefore, he should have had trade value. But whatever.

For all my concerns about how Jeff Keppinger might push Encarnacion to the bench under Mackanin, there's no denying what a fine 55 PA's he had in July. I was very positive about Keppinger in my profile of him last February, and I'm excited to see him showing his worth in the big leagues. I do not see him as a starter, at least not with Eddie on the team, but I love him as an offensively-oriented 5th infielder.

And then the mediocre:

It's hard to call Adam Dunn's month bad, as the guy did post an 0.376 OBP on the month. But his power numbers (0.455 SLG) were the lowest he's posted in any month this season, and the Reds clearly needed help in that area. That said, he wasn't the main problem with the Reds offense by any means. It's also worth nothing that his walk rate was back up to normal after a strange decline in June. Dunn'll be fine, this was just an off-month for him.

Dave Ross posted a 0.750 OPS, and has not posted an OPS below 0.700 since April. His low OBP is not good, but his ISO of 0.215 is was in a virtual tie for the club lead last month. Given his defensive skills abilities behind the plate, I'm ok with this. ... though it sure would be nice if he could rediscover the 13% walk rate he posted last season.

And then there were the guys who had miserable months:

Ken Griffey Jr. hit 0.205/0.369/0.375. What happened? His isolated power is about half of what it was in May and June, though it was his batting average that really killed his slugging percentage. His BABIP was a ridiculous 0.209 in July, which suggests that he had some bad luck. ... though it is worth noting that his line drive rate has been declining over the past few weeks, and is back down to the rather low rate that he posted last season (currently just 14.8% for the year, which predicts ~0.270 BABIP--far lower than his career rates). I'm going to want to wait another month before I start sounding alarms, but it's worth monitoring these last few months. At least he has still been walking at a fantastic rate...

Ryan Freel, on the other hand, has been positively awful since returning from his concussion-induced break, hitting 0.242/0.301/0.326 in July. You have to wonder if he is really okay, or if he needs to take another month off. His BABIP was 0.293, which doesn't suggest particularly bad luck, especially for someone who has an 18% LD rate. The biggest drop in his productivity seems to have been caused by his walk rate, which dropped to a team-low 3% in July. This from a guy who walked in 11-12% of his plate appearances from 2004-2006. In fact, his OBP was as high as it was last month simply because he managed to get himself hit by a pitch five times. I'm not sure what has happened--he doesn't seem to have been more aggressive, as his strikeout rates are right where they've always been. But over his career, those walk rates have been the primary offensive weapon that Freel has had. Without them, and with the drop in line drive rate he's shown this season (previously 20-25%), Freel has been completely impotent at the plate. And yet he accounted for more than 10% of the Reds plate appearances in July. Get him out of the lineup, Pete. ... or at least out of the leadoff spot. Please?

Edwin Encarnacion actually had a worse month, by the numbers, than Freel, hitting just 0.221/0.302/0.312 in July. His BABIP was a bit low, but even adjusting it up to 0.300 doesn't push his OPS out of the 0.600's. Edwin's season, so far, is easily the most disappointing individual performance of the year. His strikeout and walk rates this season are pretty much where they were last season. But his line drive rate is down, and his isolated power is just better than half of what it was last season. I still have faith in the kid, and I think he can pull out of it--but if the Reds keep playing him (as they should), and he does not start to show improvement by the end of the season... Well...

Finally, the "reserve" Reds were even worse on the month, with the combination of Conine, Hopper, Valentin, Gonzalez, and Lopez creating just 18 runs in 219 plate appearances--a lower rate than Freel or Encarnacion. And those five players accounted for 22.5% of all Reds plate appearances in June. Combine that with Freel and Eddie's PA, and you have 42% of all Reds plate appearances in July providing replacement level (or worse) production. Frankly, it's a testament to the performance of the rest of the Red hitters that they still managed to score 4.4 runs per game.

July 2007 Reds Review Part 1: Overview

July 2007 in Brief
July Record: 14-12 (0.538)
Series Record: 4-4-0
PFadj-Runs Scored: 115 (4.4 r/g, 11th in NL)
PFadj-Runs Allowed: 134 (5.1 r/g, 9th in NL)
Team OBP: 0.333 (8th in NL)
Team SLG: 0.389 (14th in NL)
Team FIP: 4.80 (10th in NL)
Team DER: 0.675 (13th in NL)

Season to Date
Overall Record: 45-62 (0.421), 13 games back
Series Record: 10-23-1
PythagoPat Record: 48-59 (0.449)
Remaining Record Needed for 81 Wins: 36-19 (0.655)
Remaining Record Needed for 90 Wins: 45-10 (0.818)
PFadj-Runs Scored: 488 (4.6 r/g, 8th in NL)
PFadj-Runs Allowed: 553 (5.1 r/g, 14th in NL)
Team OBP: 0.324 (T-11th in NL)
Team SLG: 0.424 (5th in NL)
Team FIP: 4.34 (7th in NL)
Team DER: 0.676 (15th in NL)

What Happened...
As the Reds' disastrous first half came to a close, fans saw the dismissal of manager Jerry Narron and his bench coach, Bucky Dent, and their replacement by Pete Mackanin and Pat Kelly. And then, something magical happened. After playing just over replacement level since mid-April, and not sweeping a team all season, the Reds surged to their first 0.500+ month since June 2006, including sweeps of two contending teams, the Diamondbacks and Braves.

Here's how the NL Central looked to date, courtesy of The Hardball Times:
While it's hard to say that the Reds really gained ground, they at least held their position well enough to let the rapidly imploding Pirates plummet past them into the cellar (despite claims at the All-Star break that my projection of the Reds finishing ahead of pIrates was laughable). Among the actual "good" teams in the Central, the Cubs continued the surge they began in mid-June, while the Brewers continued to fall back toward 0.500, putting my projection of the Brewers winning the division in serious jeopardy.

Breaking it down...
So how did they do it? How did the Reds post their first 0.500+ month in over a year?

Well, it doesn't seem like they did it with their offense, which went from scoring 4.8 r/g in June to just 4.4 r/g in July. While OBP did increase on the month, the Reds' power--their strength this season--dried up almost completely, showing a microscopic 0.389 SLG in July.

And it doesn't seem like they did it with their pitching, which posted a 4.80 FIP on the month, 10th in the league and identical to the June numbers.

And it doesn't seem like they did it with fielding, because the Reds posted a Defense Efficiency Ratio of 0.675--thirteenth in the NL, and almost exactly the same as the year-to-date rate (0.676).

...so let's see. If it wasn't the offense, it wasn't the pitching, and it wasn't the fielding, how did the Reds post a 0.500+ month? The answer is timing. Or luck. Whatever you want to call it. Overall, the Reds scored 115 runs and allowed 134 runs (park factor adjusted numbers), which, via Pythagoras, predict a record of 11-15. That's three games fewer than they actually won. The Reds went 7-2 in one-run games, and 4-0 in extra inning games in July. So things went the Reds' way this past month a bit more often than expected. It's about freaking time.

July Transactions

July 1st
- Jerry Narron (fired; it must have been his fault)
+ Pete MacKanin (hired; good luck, man)

July 3rd
- Bucky Dent (fired; or did he quit?)
- Ed Napoleon (quit)
+ Pat Kelly (hired)
+ IF/OF Ryan Freel (from DL; returning from post-concussion problems)
- C Chad Moeller (DFA to AAA; can't hit, can't throw)

July 5th
- RHP Brad Salmon (to AAA; we hardly new thee)
+ LHP Mike Stanton (from DL; hamstring)

July 7th
- IF Juan Castro (to DL; elbow)
- RHP Marcus McBeth (to AAA; we hardly new thee)
- RHP Ricky Stone (DFA, to AAA; DIPS caught up to him)
+ RHP Kirk Saarloos (from AAA; would he be better this time?)
+ IF Jeff Keppinger (from AAA; good reserve player, but also white & makes contact, thus overrated)
+ RHP Jared Burton (from DL; rule 5 players get hurt pretty easy)

July 8th
- RHP Homer Bailey (to AAA; awful command, groin hurt)
+ IF Pedro Lopez (from AAA; need SS replacement)

July 12th
- OF Josh Hamilton (to DL; wrist)
+ C Chad Moeller (from AAA; uhh...)

July 14th
- SS Alex Gonzalez (to bereavement list; get well soon to his young son)

July 17th
+ LHP Bobby Livingston (from AAA; now 5th starter)

July 20th
- RHP Aaron Harang (to bereavement list; grandfather passed)
+ RHP Ricky Stone (from AAA; local kid gets another shot)

July 22nd
= SS Alex Gonzalez (from bereavement to restricted list; son)
- RHP Ricky Stone (to AAA; so long, and thanks for all the fish)
+ RHP Aaron Harang (from bereavement list; condolences)

July 27th
- SS Pedro Lopez (to DL; broken face, scary)
+ IF Juan Castro (from DL; can't throw ball though)

July 28th
- RHP Kirk Saarloos (to AAA; no, he wasn't better this time)
+ RHP Victor Santos (from AAA; why not McBeth? Salmon? Bray? Majewski? No comprende!)

Coming up next--a look at the hitting, pitching, and defense in July.

Trading Deadline Ramblings

So, in the end, only two moves were made prior to the non-waiver trading deadline this season, and only one involved moving a player (Lohse) who was going to walk for no return at the end of the season. The other three candidates that I most expected to be traded -- Hatteberg, Weathers, and Conine -- are staying with the Reds, at least for now.

It's not impossible that one or all of them could squeak through trade waivers and be traded over these last two months. But it has to be considered less likely to happen than a trade prior to the deadline. The biggest surprise, to me, was the failure to move Hatteberg. I really like him, but I figured these last two months would be a great opportunity to bring up Votto and give him some big league experience, at least against right-handed pitchers. Hatteberg would be a great injury replacement for a team at first base, and would be a fantastic guy to have on your bench when you're making a playoff run. He's an ideal pinch hitter--a high OBP, high contact guy that is exactly who you want at the plate when you have a runner on third base. So it seems like he would have had value. ... But at the same time, he wouldn't have brought a top-flight prospect in return either.

Nevertheless, there are some good things that come from this rather uneventful deadline. Adam Dunn was not traded, and while we won't hear anything about it for a while, I'll be surprised if the Reds would take the talent hit of not picking up his extension for next year. As Joel points out, there is certainly room in the budget to keep him.

I had argued for a trade of Griffey (for good return). But Joel's runs scored analysis, which was featured in the Sunday Enquirer article, does provide a compelling argument about why the Reds should keep him (and Dunn). I think it's a bit risky, but if you're going to gamble on a hitter to keep producing at age 38, you can do worse than gambling on Griffey. If he comes through, and we see the improvements we expect to see next season among some of our other young offensive players, the Reds could have an outstanding offense next season. And a truly outstanding offense could mean that a playoff run is a legitimate possibility with only modest improvement in pitching and defense.

The surprising Matt Morris trade today indicates, to me, that the Reds got a reasonable return on Lohse--Rajai Davis has some on-base skills, but at 26.8 yrs, he's hardly a prospect, and I'm happier taking Maloney for the Reds' needs. At best, Davis seems comparable to Chris Denorfia with less power, and Denorfia "just" brought Marcus McBeth in return. Pittsburgh is taking on a sizable salary both this and next season, but Morris is still a decent pitcher, and they get control over him next year. Morris also has a better track record than Lohse, though Lohse's performance this season is a bit better. So I would have rated their value to a contender as more or less equivalent this season. He should help Pittsburgh.

So overall, while I would have liked to see another small deal or two, the Reds could have done a lot worse. Despite all the rumors about Adam Dunn's departure, Krivsky stuck to his guns and demanded the appropriate high price for Dunn. It meant that he didn't get a deal done, but it also meant that he didn't accept a return below Dunn's worth.